New Q2 speculation from FMNN

[dmitchell]

Ron Paul - Healthy Fund Trend, 2nd Quarter

With financial reporting deadlines looming on July 15 for the political quarter, donations continue on a healthy trend, say sources close to the campaign of GOP presidential candidate Ron Paul (R-Tex). FMNN had previously reported that "donations have moved up - not by hundreds of thousands - but by millions as a result of his debate performances and groundswell of support on the Internet and in New Hampshire."

Campaign observers had estimated that, at the low end, donations were "definitely" in the area of $3 million – and could run as high as $5 million - while cautioning, however, "that such amounts are somewhat speculative." Recent information from campaign observers indicate that campaign donation receivables could total up to $3 million or more as soon as next quarter, given pledges, current donation trends and the continuing enthusiasm for Ron Paul's free-market message.

These sources believe that current fund-raising totals at least $1.5 million - riding a groundswell of support generated by his small government, anti-foreign-war message. Cash-on-hand could reach $750,000 or more.

"Donations are well ahead of anything the campaign expected," one campaign observer said. "The grass roots enthusiasm for the Ron Paul campaign is reflected not only the in the amount raised, but in the number of donations and how many are donating several times, even serially."

The move is especially impressive since as of March 31, 2007, Ron Paul had perhaps $500,000 on hand. FMNN had previously reported – after the GOP presidential debate in South Carolina - that candidate Ron Paul's donations, large and small, had nearly doubled.

[Erazmus]

Wow, great news!

[paulitics]

so what is it 5 million or 1.5 million? I hate this speculation. If its 1.5 million than this is somewhat disappointing.

[ScotTX]

I think they said it looks like he's raised between $3-5M, which is great news either way. They were saying he was over $2M last month.

[rich34]

I think there just throwing stuff out there. Imo they HAVE to have a pretty good idea of how much he's got because of the electronic payments. They at least should know that much. I can understand if they still have plenty of checks to cash, but again they should have a pretty good idea of where he stands as of today.

[torchbearer]

Maybe they are lowering our expectations for a pleasant suprise?

[rich34]

Maybe they are lowering our expectations for a pleasant suprise?

Torchbearer, I hope you're right!

I want to believe that myself because it seems if they didn't raise that much wouldn't they want to just go ahead and get it out there? Or would there be an advantage to waiting later? I can understand the strategy if they've raised a ton of money and are waiting until later so maybe he'll get more press, but it seems like to wait just to announce..... say 2 million wouldn't be the best strategy. Of course I've never run a campaign so I have no idea what the best strategy would be.

[Duckman]

It does seem odd that Ron Paul is sitting on this for so long.

My theory is that Ron wants to wait until after Fred Thompson officially enters the race, which is supposed to happen this week. He may also want the other fundraising news to pass (McCain's dissapointment and Obama's record) to avoid playing second fiddle to those announcements.

[paulitics]

You see, he is obviously sandbagging because he placed bets on himself on intrade. lol

[njandrewg]

should be higher than that

in Q1 he only spent 100K, him only having 750K on hand after raising millions(1.5-5) doesn't seem correct

[Bradley in DC]

We will know when they announce it. Unlike McCain, he does not have excess staffers to keep all of this as up to date as we would all like--and most of the staff was very busy out in Iowa this past weekend when the deadline hit. I think a few of us on the forum might have heard about it. I don't think there is any "strategy" withholding the information. My personal target is that he has more cash on hand than McCain and the rest of the second tier. No reason to stop giving!!!

[rich34]

No, no reason at all to stop giving.

I think we need to make a thread in the main forum here about a possible strategy for people to keep giving so much each paycheck. That's what I'm going to try and do. 50 bucks a paycheck definately and if I can afford more I will, but "we the people" are going to have to fund Ron Paul's campaign because the big interest groups are not. The people supporting Ron Paul need to understand this and they need to make room in their monthly budget specifically for this. Every paycheck everybody should give something even if it's just 10 bucks.

[LibertyEagle]

It does seem odd that Ron Paul is sitting on this for so long.

My theory is that Ron wants to wait until after Fred Thompson officially enters the race, which is supposed to happen this week. He may also want the other fundraising news to pass (McCain's dissapointment and Obama's record) to avoid playing second fiddle to those announcements.

Now, that's a very good point. Thompson's announcement will overshadow for a day or two.

[markpa]

should be higher than that

in Q1 he only spent 100K, him only having 750K on hand after raising millions(1.5-5) doesn't seem correct

This is exactly why I support Dr. Paul with everything I have. He spends 100k and triples his support while McCain goes on a spending spree and looses his whole base. GREAT!!!!!

[klamath]

I hope it isn't a big letdown. I am a little concerned that the campaign was asking for donations to pay the 50,000 for the new headquarters. That doesn't sound like a campaign with millions on hand.

[Bro.Butch]

No, no reason at all to stop giving.

I think we need to make a thread in the main forum here about a possible strategy for people to keep giving so much each paycheck. That's what I'm going to try and do. 50 bucks a paycheck definately and if I can afford more I will, but "we the people" are going to have to fund Ron Paul's campaign because the big interest groups are not. The people supporting Ron Paul need to understand this and they need to make room in their monthly budget specifically for this. Every paycheck everybody should give something even if it's just 10 bucks.

THIS IS THE BEST POST I HAVE SEEN since I joined this forum !!! All this time is just wasted life for all of us if he doesn't get the funds to get up paid advertising.

As Bradley above stated RP doesn't have 200+ staffers doing the work as some of the "first tier" candidates. On the FEC reporting he has one lady and she might have one or two part time assistants if she is fortunate. If he hires more staff that means less funds on hand unless the supporters donate more to cover the added expense. So speculations maybe fun for some, but if you aren't donating RP's struggle will definitely fall short.

Whatever the figure is, chances are Romney spent more money carpeting his homes-lol. Romney just doesn't have the "truth" however ! Does he ?!?

[Wyurm]

This is exactly why I support Dr. Paul with everything I have. He spends 100k and triples his support while McCain goes on a spending spree and looses his whole base. GREAT!!!!!

Well, no other candidate has over 14,000 active volunteers (http://www.meetup.com/topics/polact/cand/pres/)

No other candidate has a message that equals the messages of the founding fathers.

No other candidate has been repetitively hit with obstacles and gained support from it instead of losing support.

So, it fits that no other candidate can manage his money well enough that he has greater success off fewer dollars.

[KingTheoden]

I hope it isn't a big letdown. I am a little concerned that the campaign was asking for donations to pay the 50,000 for the new headquarters. That doesn't sound like a campaign with millions on hand.

Interesting point. I wondered whether it was a means at galvanizing people's support or indicative of something as you suggest might be. We will find out at the latest in two weeks so our speculation will soon become moot.

I think this report is somewhat old as it looks familiar. At risk of building us up for a disappointment, I think we have to remember that Ron Paul's campaign began to surge after the second debate, which of course was well into the second quarter. It seems reasonable then to expect contributions to increase as a result. Similarly, expenses have spiked as well since he is doing more campaigning. Depending on the level of such, I think that a ballpark estimate of $4 million cash on hand is within reason and close to the actual figure.

Waiting until after 'ol Fred' makes his announcement is very wise regardless of the actual figure (if it is on the lower side e.g. $2 million, it will do no good to announce going into the Fred circus and of course if it is higher e.g. $4 million plus, Ron Paul can steal Thompson's thunder). What also appears reasonable at this point is that Ron Paul will be third in total funds on hand (omitting Fred Thompson's asinine meet and great 'fees'). Assuming this is so, it would be extremely hard for the media to continue its standoffish stance towards Dr. Paul.

[Harry96]

I won't believe anything until I see the official numbers, but I'll be crushed if this speculation turns out to be correct. I'm confused: He "definitely" had $3 million, and maybe as much as 5, nearly a month ago, but now he may not even get to 3 until the next quarter, and may have only raised $1.5 million, and spent half of it? What happened?

[angelatc]

This is the same rag that reported 5 mil 1.5 months ago, and has yet to issue any retraction on it.

I don't believe anything I read in FMNN.

Look at how much everybody else is reporting. 32.5, 17,...I think that they're better off waiting so the amount of growth makes a better story than the actual cash.

[TheEvilDetector]

5 mil easily!!

[LibertyEagle]

Unfortunately, I don't either since that stunt of theirs on the 5 mil. Unless that really is true. Soon we'll know.