Motivation for Russian Invasion of Georgia.

[micahnelson]

Any Ideas? I can't seem to figure it out.

Do you think it could have anything to do with attempting to position themselves strategically closer to Iran pursuant to a conflict in the wings?

Maybe they just want to remove a US-Friendly entity between them and Iran should things go the way the administration is pushing for in the region.

I'm just shooting in the dark here- seems odd.

[brandon]

Do you think it could have anything to do with attempting to position themselves strategically closer to Iran pursuant to a conflict in the wings?

This is what I initially thought, but then Acptulsa suggested that they may be more interested in denying us the strategic location then controlling it themselves. I think this sounds about right.

But then again, there has been conflict going on between these two countries for years, so it may actually have little to do with the US.

[micahnelson]

This is what I initially thought, but then Acptulsa suggested that they may be more interested in denying us the strategic location then controlling it themselves. I think this sounds about right.

But then again, there has been conflict going on between these two countries for years, so it may actually have little to do with the US.

You are ruining my America-centric view of the world Mr. Yates.

[Alex Libman]

Alex Jones is a liar, but he's telling the truth on the South Ossetia issue...

(I'm putting up his show Sunday on HTTP - hr1, hr2. Use those links only if you can't use BitTorrent.)

It's a NATO power-grab that backfired...

[Andrew-Austin]

This is what I initially thought, but then Acptulsa suggested that they may be more interested in denying us the strategic location then controlling it themselves. I think this sounds about right.

But then again, there has been conflict going on between these two countries for years, so it may actually have little to do with the US.

Well, it could be more of a combination of the two. I wouldn't put it over them to occupy Georgia longer then anyone expects. If just to have a chess piece in the right place to counter future American imperialist moves. It does seem to be a sort of NATO power grab that fumbled, and I'm sure Russia does not mind the opportunity to quell the annoying neighbor that is Georgia. What will be interesting is to see how the global community acts toward Russia these next couple of weeks.

[Zippyjuan]

Georgia may indeed be the target of Russia in all of this- with South Ossetia the excuse. The vast majority of Russian income is from energy. They provide Europe with one fourth of their oil and one half of their natural gas- and much of that passes through pipelines in Georgia. Taking over Georgia would give them control of the pipelines as well as access to their seaports where the fuels can be shipped from. Energy has also been a tool of Russia - either to coerce or straight out blackmail states. On one of the early days of the current crisis, Russia dropped bombs near but not on the pipelines- perhaps to show that they could take them out if they wanted to. The oil pipeline is believed to be one reason that the West and NATO want Georgia aligned with them.

http://www.globalsecurity.org/milita...l-politics.htm

Georgia - Oil Politics
Development of Caspian oil and gas resources and export routes has been slowed by regional conflict, political instability, and lack of regional cooperation. Many of the proposed export routes pass through areas where conflicts remain unresolved. Most of these are in the Transcaucasus part of the Caspian region, where conflicts in Georgia, the Chechnya portion of Russia, and between Armenia and Azerbaijan, hinder the development of export routes westward from the Caspian.

The future of the Caucasus region could be determined by the pipelines running through it. Each country in the region and several outside it have their own views on how oil and gas should reach the rest of the world. The western route for early oil from Azerbaijan goes from Baku to the Georgian port of Supsa on the Black Sea, and several other proposed pipeline routes also pass through Georgia. Pipeline construction on the western route was suspended briefly in October 1998 because of the fighting between government forces and those led by Akaki Eliava.

The proposed pipeline routes pass near several regions of Georgia that have been the site of separatist struggles, such as Abkhazia and Ossetia. Georgia has expressed a willingness to grant Abkhazia some autonomy, and talks to resolve the standoff have included proposals to route future oil pipelines across the rebel region, on the premise that economic cooperation could help bring peace to the region. The port of Supsa, the terminus of the western route for "early oil" from the AIOC, is 12 miles from a buffer zone between Abkhazia and Georgia.

The long controversial Baku-Ceyhan ("Main Export Pipeline") from the Caspian through Turkey to the Mediterranean should be completed by 2004, along with a parallel gas pipeline from Turkmenistan. Where these pipelines are built will create winners and losers in this multinational competition. The success of these projects would end an almost century-old Russian stranglehold on the oil and gas resources of the Caspian. The new pipelines are clearly is meant to weaken the influence of Russia in the region and therefore are regarded as hostile by the Russian Government. Moscow might choose to cause more trouble in the Caucasus. It has fomented rebellions in the past and can do so again. Georgia, through which the new pipeline would pass, is particularly vulnerable. It blamed Moscow for backing the secession of Abkhazia and South Ossetia.

[Zippyjuan]

http://news.theage.com.au/business/w...0811-3t5f.html

West worried about Georgia oil pipeline
Email Print Normal font Large font August 11, 2008 - 7:29AM

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Western concerns are growing over the impact of bloody clashes between Georgia and Russia on a key oil pipeline through the region from the Caspian Sea to the West, analysts say.

While Georgia does not produce oil itself, US and European energy firms have counted on the pro-Western country - sandwiched between Russia and Iran further south - to host a conduit for oil and gas exports from Azerbaijan.

Since President Mikheil Saakashvili took power in 2004 two new pipes have been built, and the explosion of violence between Georgia and huge northern neighbour is threatening those, notably the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan (BTC) pipeline.

As if vindicating those concerns, the head of Azerbaijan's state oil company said on Saturday that oil exports had been halted via the Georgian ports of Batumi and Kulevi due to the clashes over the breakaway region of South Ossetia.

That announcement came shortly after Georgian Prime Minister Lado Gurgenidze said that Russian warplanes had staged a raid near the 1,774-kilometre BTC pipeline, the world's second longest.

But British oil giant BP downplayed that report, saying it could not confirm any such Russian bombing. "We are not aware of that and I think we probably would be if it were true," said a spokesman.

Inaugurated in 2006, the pipeline which carries oil from Azerbaijan on the shores of the Caspian to Western markets via the Turkish Mediterranean port of Ceyhan. It is capable of transporting 1.2 million barrels a day.

BP has a 30 per cent stake in the pipeline, which cost three billion US dollars to build, along with some 10 other partners including US oil groups Chevron and ConocoPhillips.

Transporting oil through the Caucasus is designed to make the West less dependent on supplies from Russia, which has shown worrying willingness to close the taps in disputes with other ex-Soviet states in recent years.

But Paul Stevens, oil analyst with the Chatham House think tank in London, said the possible threat to the BTC pipe is unlikely to scare oil markets in the short term.

The pipeline has in any case been out of action since last week due to an explosion in eastern Turkey for which Kurdish separatists claimed responsibility, he explained.

"Even if the pipe is out of action for a week or two weeks it's very unlikely that this would have much effect on global oil supplies," he told Sky News television.

BP is also the operator of the South Caucasus pipeline, a 692 kilometre long conduit transporting gas from Azerbaijan's vast Shah Deniz offshore field via Georgia to the Turkish border.

Analyst Natalia Leshchenko of Global Insight said the current conflict should have little effect on the pipelines in the immediate future.

"The task of the Russian forces at present is to ensure control of South Ossetia.... The pipelines would be in danger only if the war escalated," she told AFP.

But she added: "If Russia started an economic blockade, then it might target the pipelines." Russian armed forces denied Sunday imposing a naval blockade on arms shipments into Georgia's Black Sea ports.

Michael Denison of Leeds University, an associate fellow of Chatham House, said it was unlikely Russia would threaten the BTC pipeline.

"Attempts to take control of that pipeline would be extreme," he said.

While the threat to the pipelines is considered relatively low, analysts agree that the Georgian conflict could discourage investment in the Caspian region.

"The conflict is going to cause people to think twice about investing in the oil industry in the Caspian region, if it's in the middle of a war zone," said Stevens.

[Kade]

The Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan international oil pipeline.



Georgia was within months of becoming a member of NATO, Russia needed to do something fast, and the Olympics were a perfect time, under the propaganda of a Georgia Aggression and "ethnic" cleansing...

Our country is far too weak, far too pathetic in regards to foreign policy now... it was a genius move on Russia's part... genius. This event would had lead to World War III if they had done this after the 1991 independence...

This has been in the works for well over 8 years.

[Zolah]

Georgia was within months of becoming a member of NATO, Russia needed to do something fast, and the Olympics were a perfect time, under the propaganda of a Georgia Aggression and "ethnic" cleansing...

Our country is far too weak, far too pathetic in regards to foreign policy now... it was a genius move on Russia's part... genius. This event would had lead to World War III if they had done this after the 1991 independence...

This has been in the works for well over 8 years.

Great theory, couple problems - Georgia started this conflict on Friday, not Russia...and Georgia is unable to join NATO until it resolves its LAND DISPUTES, hence why it attacked South Ossetia to regain control of the region by force.

[Zippyjuan]

Russia did not start it, but they certainly seem to be trying to take full advantage of the opportunity. They have not restricted their military to the South Ossetia region and seem to be moving further and further into Georgia. From two fronts now.

[gutteck]

To understand what is going in the world on just ask yourself one question: “How does this move the world towards a one world government?”


The central bank of Russia is the real ruler of Russia just as the Federal Reserve is the ruler of the US. Also every country has a central bank which controls that country including Georgia. So the bankers tell the presidents what they are going to do and they just have to do it.

Russia had been practicing war games and building up militarily for the invasion for more than 4 months. This was planned a long time ago. Also the US had especial forces training Georgian forces and providing them with weapons etc. Things like this need preparation, meaning that a plan had to be put in place, meaning that these things don’t happen spontaneously.

Just as the purpose of the economic crisis and the destruction of the dollar are to create the NAU and thus, bringing the world closer towards a one world government the coming WWIII also serves the purpose of a one world government.

When the world is devastated by the war the World Bank gang will propose a one world government to end all war over land. Also they will push a one world currency, which will be controlled by the World Bank. They will create the money and control the money supply of the whole world in a more centralized, more organized, manner.




/

[SigurdVolsung]

I fully applaud every single action taken by Russia, that country did everything we should have done. I hear Bush saying hes critical of the disproportionate response Russia took against Georgia. The point of the matter is, that Georgia tried to overrun South Ossetia while no one was watching, and while they were doing it commited War Crimes.

If you support Georgia you need to take a good hard look at their actions. Shooting ambulances, using multiple launch rocket systems and artillery against a city, shooting the wounded, running over people with tanks, shelling refugee colums, throwing grenades into basements where people are sheltering.

Ossetia only has 70,000 people and in 3 days 2,000 were killed, that is a huge number, they already lost 10,000 in the civil war a little over a decade ago. Russia's response may have been overwhelming but it was necessary to stop the killings of civilians who also happen to be Russian citizens.

Watching the Georgian president try to spin this as Russian aggression and claim that Russia is commiting genocide against the Georgian people is ludicrous and nauseating to watch. It might strategically be in Russia's interest to control South Ossetia and even Georgia, but they restrained themselves, Georgians fired the first shots and commited the first atrocities. Need I remind you that when it started the Georgian peace keepers turned on their fellow peacekeepers and killed them. They also executed the wounded.

Russia is acting in the right, I can only hope they are continually able to stop Georgia and the West and do what is right for the Ossetian people.

[Aratus]

The Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan international oil pipeline.



Georgia was within months of becoming a member of NATO, Russia needed to do something fast, and the Olympics were a perfect time, under the propaganda of a Georgia Aggression and "ethnic" cleansing...

Our country is far too weak, far too pathetic in regards to foreign policy now... it was a genius move on Russia's part... genius. This event would had lead to World War III if they had done this after the 1991 independence...

This has been in the works for well over 8 years.

Kade, its not that we are weak, its just that Russia's new guy who is
a "number two" at heart beat out the old grumpus who is our veep... for as Putin & Bush happily
merrily chatted during the syncronized displays at the Olympics, inside the doubly censored
media bottleneck that is the Olympic Village, echoes of "time magazine in yesteryear" events were on
the march.--- methinks we do have an option. were we to talk gruff and politely ask the Federation's army
to "red army in reverse geer" itself OUT of today's Georgia, in tandem with shifting our fleet up
THRU the SUEZ CANAL, like would this TR approach as in talk softly yet carry a REALLY BIG walking stick
now have RUSSIAN FEDERATION UNITs finding their own home turf?

Russia now has
a gravitas, a weight. binary?...either way,
they either secure Georgia again or they defend Iran...totally!!!
we must now blink... politely. ~~~ shades of 1962...sorta!

[dannno]

Alex Jones is a liar, but he's telling the truth on the South Ossetia issue...

(I'm putting up his show Sunday on HTTP - hr1, hr2. Use those links only if you can't use BitTorrent.)

It's a NATO power-grab that backfired...

I'm not advocating that Alex Jones is a "liar", but he is most certainly right about this one.

I can't believe our messageboard isn't exploding with the truth about this incident. I thought Ron Paul supporters were truth seekers!!

Look, Georgia invaded South Ossetia first and killed over 1,000 people including Russian peacekeeping forces, and they targeted innocent civilians, schools and hospitals. CNN, BBC, etc. ARE NOT MENTIONING THIS FACT!! Georgia broke the ceasefire and started the bombings against it's own country! Now they are saying that Russia attacked Georgia, when Russia is on a peace keeping mission! CNN is airing footage of Georgia bombing South Ossetia and saying that it is Russia bombing Georgia!!

Now, this is really complicated because most of South Ossetia is populated by russians with passports. The South Ossetia has it's own government which operates independently of Georgia, and 95%+ of the citizens of South Ossetia want liberation from Georgia!!

This is a really big deal, we need to educate people about what is really happening in this conflict. We can't let the media get away with this. This is almost as bad as the media blackout Ron Paul was handed during his election!!

[Aratus]

Iran and Georgia are tradeoffs... if there be diplomacy.
like if both sides cease having their pet projects continue on...

[dannno]

Did I mention that Russia has killed two African American mercenaries that had black uniforms, other mercenary forces with black uniforms + american flags have been reported fighting along with Georgian forces, and now Russia is saying they've captured an African American mercenary who they believe is American??


Not a peep from the MSM... just like Ron Paul...

[klamath]

This will benefit the nationalist russians. It will bring extreme pride in the Russian military. I do not really think they will try and take over Georgia but it sure strengthened their hand against the expansion of NATO. This was very well planned. Georgia was a loose canon stupidly supported by the EU and the US and Putin knew the Georgians would pull this stupid stunt and had their military forces completely ready for this. Great strategic move.

[dannno]

This will benefit the nationalist russians. It will bring extreme pride in the Russian military. I do not really think they will try and take over Georgia but it sure strengthened their hand against the expansion of NATO. This was very well planned. Georgia was a loose canon stupidly supported by the EU and the US and Putin knew the Georgians would pull this stupid stunt and had their military forces completely ready for this. Great strategic move.

I hope you're wrong, but this is the opinion i've gotten from some others too. We really f'd up this time.

[RockEnds]

http://www.kp.ru/daily/24144/362246/

Yesterday the deputy the chief of the Joint Staff of the Russian Federation general-colonel Anatoly Nagovitsyn has told, that, according to our party, for August, 11th are considered captured (or missing persons) 14 Russian military men. Almost all of them are scouts. Data about quantity of the Georgian militarians grasped during fights the general hasn't named. In Ministry of Defence of South Ossetia and Abkhazia declare, that during fights it has been grasped more than 30 Georgian military (wounded men and voluntary surrendered in a captivity). Still nearby 10 person have been detained by bodies of counterspionage as " agents of foreign special services ".

[Imperial]

Russia did not start it, but they certainly seem to be trying to take full advantage of the opportunity. They have not restricted their military to the South Ossetia region and seem to be moving further and further into Georgia. From two fronts now.

I can't remember if it was here or on another forum, but there was something I read about on this issue.

Apparently, there is only one decent road between Russia and South Ossetia. So, the Georgian plan was to blitz South Ossetia and close off the gate, effectively ending this front.

However, this doesn't make much sense. I mean, Russia has been building up its own "peacekeeping" forces in the area since at least April, and was immediately ready.

So, if Georgia knew it would fail, what was the goal? The only guess is they hoped for Western support, but why now? Wouldn't it have been more logical BEFORE the Russian troop build-up, or even during it? What changed?

I'm not advocating that Alex Jones is a "liar", but he is most certainly right about this one.

I can't believe our messageboard isn't exploding with the truth about this incident. I thought Ron Paul supporters were truth seekers!!

Look, Georgia invaded South Ossetia first and killed over 1,000 people including Russian peacekeeping forces, and they targeted innocent civilians, schools and hospitals. CNN, BBC, etc. ARE NOT MENTIONING THIS FACT!! Georgia broke the ceasefire and started the bombings against it's own country! Now they are saying that Russia attacked Georgia, when Russia is on a peace keeping mission! CNN is airing footage of Georgia bombing South Ossetia and saying that it is Russia bombing Georgia!!

Now, this is really complicated because most of South Ossetia is populated by russians with passports. The South Ossetia has it's own government which operates independently of Georgia, and 95%+ of the citizens of South Ossetia want liberation from Georgia!!

This is a really big deal, we need to educate people about what is really happening in this conflict. We can't let the media get away with this. This is almost as bad as the media blackout Ron Paul was handed during his election!!

It is claimed that Georgia responded to South Ossetians breaking the ceasefire originally in place. Doesn't this sound like Turkey attacking the Kurds, which still hasn't withdrawn? Besides that though, I would say there is nobody who is in the moral right. Georgia has been brutal as much as the Russians have.

The simple fact is, the Caucasus is a shatter belt. Plain and simple. Armenians, Georgians, Russians, and numerous tribes descended from Iranians including the Ossetians, Chechnyans and Azerbaijanis. Nobody is in the moral right here. Both sides are tense and adamant, just like the Balkans. It is a remnant of the competition between the Ottoman Empire, Russia, and to a lesser extent Persia(in the Caucasus).

Now, I am not saying the Western media is pitifully on the side of Georgia. I think they need to blame Georgia as much as Russia. I mean, Russia has been escalating the situation just as Georgia has. Both sides are excessively brutal. This is what happens in tense ethnic situations, sad to say.

Really, instead of both sides and the West allowing a war to foment, this should have been mediated long ago...

PS: While the Ossetians have Russian passports, they are actually an ethnic group descended from Iranians. Also, there is a North Ossetia too, that is fully in Russia.

[Fox McCloud]

There's a couple here (and on a radio program I listen to), also someone on Alex's show, and even a friend or so who thinks that this is a secret deal between Russia and the US, as in "we let you go after South Ossetia/Georgia and we won't interfere directly, but we will condemn you, if you'll let us go into Iran where you condemn us, but you don't directly intervene".

Who knows, at this point....that said, if we attack Iran within the next month, I'd say the plausibility of this situation just went way up.

That said, I'd still be worried about Russia suddenly saying "how dare you do this!" then directly intervene anyway.

[youngbuck]

That is an interesting theory, Fox.

I'm still leaning towards the idea that it was just a big mess up on part of the US using Georgia to indirectly attack Russia, and then blame it on Russia. Idk...

Right when I thought I was starting to understand the situation, Russia starts to pull out.

[heavenlyboy34]

Hello, all.

The misinformation campaign around this event is staggering. I have a close friend from Yelets, Russia. I'll quote you what she wrote to me about it and you can decide for yourself. (excuse the grammar-english is her second language):

"This is the chronology and you are to make conclusion yourself.

At the beginning of August Georgia, Soutn Osetia and Russia decided not to use force.

In Osetia there were only Russian peace keepers (not from other countries)

At night of August,7 (Mark: before the Olimpic Games) Georgia fired the capital of Osetia Tshinvali from all possible guns, mortars and other weapons WITHOUT any notifying and bombed the town all the night.

During only this night about 2000 civil people were killed and the city was practically destroyed.

Russia did not do any military actions. On August, 7 on Russian initiative they called UN Security Council, but it could not decide any thing. And during this time Georgia damaged 10 ossets villages.

In the afternoon Ossetia and Russia asked Georgia to allow humanitarian corridor for civil people but Georgia refused. Russia still did not do any military actions.

By the end of the day about 35,000 refugees left Ossetia under bombing and firing. Humanitarian corridor was not opened by Georgia.

In the evening August, 7 Russia announced that it will compel Georgian to peace with its military troops. Only at this moment Russian military troops began to enter Ossetia (by the way, not more than it was written in the treaty between Georgia and Russia about the number of Russian peace keepers). And they began to fight with Georgian troops.

It was all the night, but losses of Georgian civil people are close to none because the Russians attacked only military objects.

On August, 8 Security Council was summoned on Georgian initiative and again in didn't decide anything.

On the August, 9 it called the third time and decided to send observers to the zone of conflict. Only after that Georgia opened humanitarian corridor.

Many volunteers from Abkhazia, Chechnya and Russia want to go and help the Ossets. Besides Chechnya already sent its military troops to help the Ossets.

During 10-11 of August Georgian military troops were forced out from Tshinvali and villages.

On August, 11 Saakashvili had to sign stopping of firing, but the Georgian still fired till August, 12.Oficcial information says that Ossetia lost more than 2000 civil people, and Georgia's losses are minimal (by the way even BBC World does not give the number of Georgian civil people lost).

Today French President came to Russia and proposed a variant of adjustment, Russia signed it and tomorrow Sarkazi will take it to Georgia.

And now something from history of these peoples when they were in Russian Empire. In the 19 century the Georgians all the time tried to assimilate the Ossets and even Russian tsar had to confirm Ossetic national identification and forbade Georgian to do it.



I saw on TV the conference of the UNO. Almost all the members, how their countries, accuse Russia of attack of Georgia, all say as if to our government came into the head intervene in the territory of Georgia having for the object effect for Georgia. All the world community says that and seems that the West doesn't know that Russia isn't the initiator or doesn't want to. It was about two days ago. But now the situation hasn't changed much, I think.



The thing is that America accuses Russia of intervention in Georgia but all the conflict looks as if America is on Georgian side, strictly speaking Georgia on American side and under American influence and Saakashvili never would have done all this without US' backing him.

This is what I can say of this conflict. As you see it's not simple.



I think in the USA it looks the wrong side out. "

[DAFTEK]

^I'm just amazed that CNN is not covering this and just lying to the American people with fake videos and making Georgia the victim here, it's so easy to blame big Russia the bully and the world will buy it like some brainwashed people even here on RPF sadly!

[DAFTEK]

Personally i believe these events and all the events of this year that has been constant 24/7 news on CNN like Issue #1 your money, high gas prices, the housing collapse, financial collapse are just smoke screens to get ready for the war with Iran, it started all with 9/11-Afghanistan-Iraq-Russia/Georgia-China/Burma-Kosovo/Serbia-Israel/Iran/USA? i don't know but it all smells, too many huge events in the past few years and especially 2007/2008

[Sarge]

I think there is more to this all, then meets the eye.

Note the following,

"The attacks originally starting to take place several weeks before the actual “intervention” with Georgia President’s web site coming under DDoS attack from Russian hackers in July, followed by active discussions across the Russian web on whether or not DDoS attacks and web site defacements should in fact be taking place, which would inevitably come as a handy tool to be used against Russian from Western or Pro-Western journalists."

Why was this taking place several weeks ago? Did they know something?

Just google to read about the cyber attack.

[KewlRonduderules]

I have been reading here about how the Georgians were at fault for the attack and how they were backed by the US. I know there is a lot of anti- US foreign policy out there for valid reasons given our fiascos in Iraq and Afghanistan. However, I think we need to be cautious about WHO started this mess.

On one side it is alleged that the Georgians started this by invading South Ossetia back by USA or Israeli interests. However, I am not entirely convinced that is true. Moreover, there has been a cyber warfare campaign to put Russia as the innocent justic seeker out there. I personally don't buy it.

There is also another side something which many people want to disregard and I think it is due to the anti-US foreign policy attitude out there (Note: I am definitely no fan of US foreign policy either- we should be minding our own business but since I've noticed so much information in favor of Russia, I thought I should comment).

I have personal contacts from Georgia. What you are not hearing is that a lot of this conflict started in the last few weeks and months prior to the invasion. South Ossetian rebels had been firing on Georgian villages. The Georgian president did indeed attempt to negotiate a cease fire but South Ossetia backed out. Meanwhile, they continued to bomb Georgian villages. And he was quoted as saying just prior to the invasion that he had no intention of invading South Ossetia. However, the attacks continued to escalate to the point of war. At which point, he had no choice but to invade as a desperate attempt to curtail the violence.

This is the bait Russia needed in order to invade Georgia. The South Ossetian rebels are directly funded by Russia. So in this sense, they were acting as pawns and Georgian forces fell right into the trap.

I personally don't buy that the US was involved in any invasion. The US is stretched thin with limited resources spending it all in Iraq and Afghanistan. So my question is how can the US financially and militarily support another conflict. They can't! And Russia knows this and used this as an opportunity to to reclaim its power in the region. They felt threatened by Georgia given that they wanted to join NATO and more importantly, to ensure their grasp of the region's oil production. That is why they did what they did.

The article below was written just prior to the Georgian offensive in South Ossetia- hopefully, you will see that there is more to the story than meets the eye:

OSSETIAN SEPARATISTS ARE PROVOKING A MAJOR RUSSIAN INTERVENTION

By Pavel Felgenhauer

Thursday, August 7, 2008


Military tension in Georgia's separatist region of South Ossetia has been building up for several months. In June the head of the OSCE Mission to Georgia Teri Hakala told me in Tbilisi that military clashes were happening on an almost daily basis, that OSCE monitors are also being attacked and that the "sides are not speaking." Since then the situation has gotten worse. Last week the tension escalated into clashes that left at least six Ossetians dead and dozens of Ossetians and Georgians wounded (Interfax, August 1). Further shooting incidents have been reported. The Georgians say the Ossetian claims are exaggerated, but all agree that tension is high and further escalation is possible (RIA-Novosti, August 5, 6).

The latest outbreak of hostilities began on July 31 after two roadside bombs hit a Georgian police Toyota SUV near the Georgian village of Eredvi. Six Georgian policemen were wounded (Interfax, August 1). Russian peacekeepers, according to the Russian Defense Ministry, discovered that the bombs were made out of 122 mm artillery shells (www.mil.ru, August 2). The road leading to Eredvi was built by the Georgians to bypass Ossetian roadblocks near the South Ossetian capital of Tskhinvali. Last November I traveled that road in a similar Toyota to visit the Georgian-controlled part of South Ossetia. This road has been a thorn in the side of the Ossetian separatists for some time. On July 4 a car with the pro-Georgian leader of South Ossetia Dmitry Sanakoyev, whom the separatists consider a renegade, was hit by a roadside bomb and shot at on the same road in almost the same spot. Three bodyguards were wounded, but Sanakoyev was unhurt. A surge of tension followed the attack (RIA-Novosti, July 4; Kommersant, August 4).

The roadside bomb attack on July 31 was followed the next day by bloody clashes. Both sides accused the other of initiating the fighting. The Ossetians admitted six dead and 15 wounded, many hit by sniper fire. The Georgians admitted nine wounded. Both sides accused the other of using mortar fire. The Ossetians announced that 29 Georgian solders had been killed but did not substantiate the claim (RIA-Novosti, August 4). The Ossetians began an evacuation of women and children to North Ossetia (a Russian autonomous republic), called for volunteers from the North Caucasus to join the fight against Georgia, and threatened to attack Georgian cities and to cleanse the Georgian forces out of South Ossetia. The South Ossetian President Eduard Kokoity claimed that Georgians living in South Ossetia were begging to be "liberated" from the forces of the regime in Tbilisi (RIA-Novosti, August 2, 3, and 4).

Kokoity has announced that some 300 volunteers have arrived in South Ossetia to fight the Georgians and that more are coming (www.newsru.com, August 5). Most of the “volunteers” seem to be South Ossetians that were serving in police and other militarized formations in North Ossetia and were sent south as reinforcements. Kokoity has ordered that these “volunteers” be integrated into the South Ossetian Interior Ministry forces (RIA-Novosti, August 6). Yesterday the Ossetians were reporting fierce battles with Georgian forces, while Georgian authorities and Russian peacekeepers reported only shooting incidents in which no one was injured (Interfax, August 6).

The Ossetian authorities have announced the cancellation of a planned meeting with the Georgian side in Tskhinvali on August 7, while the Russian Foreign Ministry said that it believed the meeting had to go ahead (RIA-Novosti, August 6). Russian peacekeepers say that after the initial flare up of fighting on August 1, the situation in South Ossetia has somewhat calmed. The Ossetians insist that it is getting worse (Interfax, August 6). High-ranking Russian officials, including President Dmitry Medvedev and Prime Minister Vladimir Putin, have remained silent about the conflict in South Ossetia.

A public gap has opened between the Ossetian and Russian authorities. The South Ossetian spokeswoman Irina Gagloyeva has publicly expressed dismay: "War is coming, but everyone, including Russia, is turning a blind eye. Russian statements are not helping us" (Kommersant, August 5).

Moscow may have been considering supporting a limited operation against Georgian forces (say, in the Kodori Gorge in Abkhazia) that would undermine the present Georgian government of President Mikheil Saakashvili but could be presented to the world as Abkhaz separatist forces acting on their own (see EDM, May 2). In South Ossetia, no limited action is possible. The Georgians are holding back from outright offensive action, but if the Ossetians succeed in provoking a major confrontation, they will be in trouble. Tskhinvali is semi-surrounded by Georgian positions and is virtually indefensible. To prevent the fall of Tskhinvali thousands of Russian troops with hundreds of pieces of armor must invade South Ossetia through the Rokki tunnel and be rushed forward. High casualties are possible and this would be a clear act of aggression.

Kokoity and other Ossetian officials seem to be bent on provoking a major Russian intervention, but apparently not everyone in Moscow is ready to plunge headlong into war.

http://www.jamestown.org/edm/article...cle_id=2373294

[brandon]

It looks like they almost have them surrounded

[ARealConservative]

South Ossetia is only a part of Georgia because Stalin made it so - likely to help thwart future separatist movements by forcing divisive ethnic groups into the national makeup.

The bottom line is they are fighting a war over boundaries put in place by a brutal communist regime.

95% of South Ossetians don't want to be Georgian, and they are only Georgian because Stalin made them a part of Georgia.

Seems like a simple solution - allow for self determination to win out.

[DAFTEK]

Michael Saakashvili secret weapon? CNN News! I hope Russia stands firm on this and take him down! This puppet murdered people in South Ossetia and our Media is just as guilty for not reporting this! SHAME CNN!