Perhaps it would be helpful to examine a map I made. The color of the states is determined by an algorithm that spits out a different combination of saturation and brightness depending upon the percentage result in the state..
South Dakota is in Paul's strongest area of the country. He passed 10% in each of the contests around it (except, of course, the private convention in Wyoming). Granted, most were caucuses. But Nebraska wasn't, and he still got around 13%. I'd venture that Paul's voter floor is about 10%. He's almost indubitably going to get double digits. The question really becomes whether he can pass 20% and net a few delegates from South Dakota. That seems, if not likely, plausible.
The delegate allocation system in SD is a proportional primary much akin to the Democrat's usual allocation scheme. The difference is that in the usual proportionally distributed Democratic delegate race you only need to net 15% to get a few delegates; in accordance with South Dakota law, you must net 20% there. But of the four states where Paul passed the 20% threshold, two are directly adjoined to South Dakota and the other two are still very close.
I'm not saying he'll get delegates, but given Paul's regional strength combined with the expectation of very low turnout, I'm cautiously optimistic that he has a distinct likelihood of pass 20%.
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