Rankings of Liberty Candidates' Chances of Winning

[TruthAtLast]

If we had to rank in order the Liberty Candidates that have the best chance at winning, what would that be? I know a little about each candidate but haven't looked into their district, their competition, their endorsements, their fund raising ability, etc.'

By the way, I am no way saying that all of these candidates aren't deserving or that people shouldn't donate to all of them (I have). I'm just wondering what the status is for the campaigns of these candidates and which ones have a legit shot at winning.

[freedom-maniac]

Lawson, and Goldthrope second.

P.S. Why isn't Linda Goldthrope on that list?

[tajitj]

Sabrin seems to really be fighting all the time. He is on the inside of the party also and puts out alot of info via email. If only Paul did the same with his donors.

[yongrel]

My ranking goes as follows:

1) Lawson
2) Sabrin
3) McKinley
4) Goldthorpe
5) Singh

all the rest

[AJ Antimony]

Ron Paul - USA, President

[nate895]

Ron Paul - USA, President

I still think we can pull it out, but even I know that if he is our best chance then we are in serious danger.

[Bradley in DC]

Ok, I'm biased, but it's McKinley. No disrespect to the other candidates, but running in a Democratic district/state in a Democratic year isn't going to be easy.

He's getting national attention in the financial press based on his experience. It's a Republican district, so if we win the primary we have a 57% chance of holding the seat. We're running against a long-time, 28-year incumbent whose National Taxpayer Union ranking has fallen in half from the 80s to 40s and is the public face of both earmarks (where he was a Cardinal on the appropriations committee) and how the Iraq war would "bring us together" and was needed just as if we were in Germany in 1937!

He's out of touch with the district, voted against gun rights in DC (Dick Heller himself showed up at our table at The Nation's Gun Show at Dulles), is on the wrong side of a government land grab via eminent domain in the district and is publicly tagged with corruption in a Dulles airport train extension.

A former state party chairman may endorse us, lots of likely primary voters (the very few of them--only 5% in the district turned out in the gubernatorial race a few years ago) are ready for a change. If we can get the word out, we will win this race.

[tekkierich]

Why was my race not ranked? I am running in a district that was last held by a Republican in 2002. I have won my primary, and I have a team in place consisting of a campaign manager, treasurer, scheduler, and have the former libertarian candidate for governor in 2002 advising the campaign.

I am trying to raise money, but I will be honest I am struggling. My campaign needs help, and I need that initial spark from the Ron Paul community.

[nate895]

Ok, I'm biased, but it's McKinley. No disrespect to the other candidates, but running in a Democratic district/state in a Democratic year isn't going to be easy.

He's getting national attention in the financial press based on his experience. It's a Republican district, so if we win the primary we have a 57% chance of holding the seat. We're running against a long-time, 28-year incumbent whose National Taxpayer Union ranking has fallen in half from the 80s to 40s and is the public face of both earmarks (where he was a Cardinal on the appropriations committee) and how the Iraq war would "bring us together" and was needed just as if we were in Germany in 1937!

He's out of touch with the district, voted against gun rights in DC (Dick Heller himself showed up at our table at The Nation's Gun Show at Dulles), is on the wrong side of a government land grab via eminent domain in the district and is publicly tagged with corruption in a Dulles airport train extension.

A former state party chairman may endorse us, lots of likely primary voters (the very few of them--only 5% in the district turned out in the gubernatorial race a few years ago) are ready for a change. If we can get the word out, we will win this race.

Sounds like a similar situation in BJ Lawson's and Michael Delavar's, though Delavar is running his campaign, no offense, crappy he has made at least three fundamental mistakes so far. Anyway, BJ Lawson's district I have heard is fed up with Pryce, and mine hates the war and taxes (a recent measure to increase taxes was rejected 60-40 in Clark County, the largest and most swing one) and we have a pro-war, pro-tax Democrat Congressman.

[tekkierich]

Ok, I'm biased, but it's McKinley. No disrespect to the other candidates, but running in a Democratic district/state in a Democratic year isn't going to be easy.

He's getting national attention in the financial press based on his experience. It's a Republican district, so if we win the primary we have a 57% chance of holding the seat. We're running against a long-time, 28-year incumbent whose National Taxpayer Union ranking has fallen in half from the 80s to 40s and is the public face of both earmarks (where he was a Cardinal on the appropriations committee) and how the Iraq war would "bring us together" and was needed just as if we were in Germany in 1937!

He's out of touch with the district, voted against gun rights in DC (Dick Heller himself showed up at our table at The Nation's Gun Show at Dulles), is on the wrong side of a government land grab via eminent domain in the district and is publicly tagged with corruption in a Dulles airport train extension.

A former state party chairman may endorse us, lots of likely primary voters (the very few of them--only 5% in the district turned out in the gubernatorial race a few years ago) are ready for a change. If we can get the word out, we will win this race.

I agree, there are so many races out there that can be won, or competitive if we can just get the word out. My incumbent is a Democrat who, voted for the reauthorization of the Patriot Act and wants to keep our troops in Iraq as a occupation force for years. He is vulnerable, if we can communicate our message to the district.

Ron Paul supporters, we have many of our own who headed the call to run for office as part of this liberty movement. I challenge you to support them.

[TruthAtLast]

Lawson, and Goldthrope second.

P.S. Why isn't Linda Goldthrope on that list?

sorry, I couldn't remember everyone off the top of my head. is it too late to add her to the poll? I can't find a way to edit the poll.

Edit: Mods if you can find a way to add Goldthrope to the poll that would be awesome.

[kevman657]

Ok, I'm biased, but it's McKinley. No disrespect to the other candidates, but running in a Democratic district/state in a Democratic year isn't going to be easy.

He's getting national attention in the financial press based on his experience. It's a Republican district, so if we win the primary we have a 57% chance of holding the seat. We're running against a long-time, 28-year incumbent whose National Taxpayer Union ranking has fallen in half from the 80s to 40s and is the public face of both earmarks (where he was a Cardinal on the appropriations committee) and how the Iraq war would "bring us together" and was needed just as if we were in Germany in 1937!

He's out of touch with the district, voted against gun rights in DC (Dick Heller himself showed up at our table at The Nation's Gun Show at Dulles), is on the wrong side of a government land grab via eminent domain in the district and is publicly tagged with corruption in a Dulles airport train extension.

A former state party chairman may endorse us, lots of likely primary voters (the very few of them--only 5% in the district turned out in the gubernatorial race a few years ago) are ready for a change. If we can get the word out, we will win this race.

QFT

[TruthAtLast]

Ok, I'm biased, but it's McKinley. No disrespect to the other candidates, but running in a Democratic district/state in a Democratic year isn't going to be easy.

He's getting national attention in the financial press based on his experience. It's a Republican district, so if we win the primary we have a 57% chance of holding the seat. We're running against a long-time, 28-year incumbent whose National Taxpayer Union ranking has fallen in half from the 80s to 40s and is the public face of both earmarks (where he was a Cardinal on the appropriations committee) and how the Iraq war would "bring us together" and was needed just as if we were in Germany in 1937!

He's out of touch with the district, voted against gun rights in DC (Dick Heller himself showed up at our table at The Nation's Gun Show at Dulles), is on the wrong side of a government land grab via eminent domain in the district and is publicly tagged with corruption in a Dulles airport train extension.

A former state party chairman may endorse us, lots of likely primary voters (the very few of them--only 5% in the district turned out in the gubernatorial race a few years ago) are ready for a change. If we can get the word out, we will win this race.

You make a strong case. Who is he running against? Anyone of concern?

[kevman657]

Lawson, and Goldthrope second.

P.S. Why isn't Linda Goldthrope on that list?

Why didn't she file with the FEC? (opensecrets.org)

[Bradley in DC]

You make a strong case. Who is he running against? Anyone of concern?

Rep. Frank "the Iraqi war will bring the country together" Wolf. I just learned that the NRA put out an "Alert" mailing a few weeks ago outlining Wolf's terrible record on the 2nd Amendment and that Vern was their guy.

[Kludge]

Murray and Brent both are great and formidable candidates, though I don't know all the others well enough to say they have the best chance.

[No1ButPaul08]

Ok, I'm biased, but it's McKinley. No disrespect to the other candidates, but running in a Democratic district/state in a Democratic year isn't going to be easy.

I'm not sure if McKinley's the strongest, but I agree that it's going to be very hard to beat an incumbent Democrat this year. All the districts are classified as "safe democratic" where candidates who are challenging a D from paulcongress.com. This is from Congressional Quarterly and Cook Political Report. CQ rates the seat Sabrin is targeting as Favored Dem, but CPR rates it as Safe D. This does not mean these candidates can't win. Any candidate can have a, "macaca moment," or just get beat. We have good candidates trying to beat a D in Sabrin, Lawson, Goldthorpe, Singh, and others, but it's going to be tough.

http://www.cqpolitics.com/wmspage.cf...=ratings-house
http://www.cookpolitical.com/races/r...comp_apr24.pdf

It's harder to tell for the candidates trying to beat the incumbent in the primary, but that is also very tough. Of these I would give McKinley the best shot, but I don't really know much about these races

I would rate McKinley, Lawson, and Sabrin as the strongest, in no certain order. If Vern can win his nomination, he should win. If BJ and Murray win theirs, they will likely get more national support and they will also have a shot. A couple others have a shot, but it's going to be really tough to win without having money to compete, which I'm not sure many of our candidates have.

[Soccrmastr]

Amit is awesome. Not sure about a lot of them up there. I really hope Sabrin can do well but he has a ton of opposition.

[Cowlesy]

I voted for Murray Sabrin. He gave me a ring yesterday as I made a donation to his campaign, and the guy is just a terrific speaker---really renewed and energized my confidence in the idea he has a shot (which I honestly believe he does).

From what I've watched to date, he's great at debating, and really connects with voters when he explains why he wants to join the Senate. The biggest part of "why" that hits home with people, in my opinion, is when he explains that he wants to make sure that young people get to grow up in a prosperous society. That really hits the demographic who goes out and votes in New Jersey. From the sounds of it, the citizens of New Jersey will be "hearing" and "seeing" lots of him in the near future.

Hopefully we can just get the damn money raised to do it right.

www.sabrinforsenate.com

[TruthAtLast]

I voted for Murray Sabrin. He gave me a ring yesterday as I made a donation to his campaign, and the guy is just a terrific speaker---really renewed and energized my confidence in the idea he has a shot (which I honestly believe he does).

From what I've watched to date, he's great at debating, and really connects with voters when he explains why he wants to join the Senate. The biggest part of "why" that hits home with people, in my opinion, is when he explains that he wants to make sure that young people get to grow up in a prosperous society. That really hits the demographic who goes out and votes in New Jersey. From the sounds of it, the citizens of New Jersey will be "hearing" and "seeing" lots of him in the near future.

Hopefully we can just get the damn money raised to do it right.

www.sabrinforsenate.com

I have to say that I've really been impressed with Murray being intellectually aggressive. He isn't afraid to call out his opposition and challenge them. He doesn't back down from a debate and will go head-to-head with anyone. There is something really appealing about someone who has that kind of confidence and the intellect and ideals to back it up.

[rodo1776]

Wish everyone on the list luck. Hope some of them win.


http://jungbauer2010.blogspot.com

I would just like to suggest that we need local candidates as well. Look at the bios of all sitting members of congress (unless their last name is Kennedy or Rockefeller or Ron Paul for that matter) and 85 - 90% of them held some lower level public office before winning a congressional seat.

Unless someone has a personal fortune or is an elected lower level official in the district these congressional races are tough. Not impossible but tough.

I like to look for RPers running for local offices which require less money and have a higher success rate.

Obviously every campaign needs money.

What they need equally if not more is:

1) A candidate that is involved in the local party
2) A candidate who knows his opponent and can talk the local issues
3) A candidate that has an existing group of committed supporters that will volunteer and door knock, pound lawn signs, raise money etc.
4) AND MOST IMPORTANT a candidate willing to go out and knock on doors, meet with seniors, attend community events, fund raise and is committed to win based on hard work.


I found a great one in Minnesota. Did all the research on the district, the last two election results, and researched him as an RPer.

This man can win. Take a look at his blog. He already has the GOP endorsement in his Minnesota House seat and thus will have no primary. he is running in a swing district that can beat the Democratic incumbent.

He will have his campaign site up soon but meanwhile has blogged for years and knows his stuff. His blog has a link from the Minnesota GOP official party site.

Check it out and look for people like these on a local level as well as the good candidates we have running for congress

The revolution will only be won over time. Support local candidates as well as congressional ones.

http://jungbauer2010.blogspot.com

[Cowlesy]

I have to say that I've really been impressed with Murray being intellectually aggressive. He isn't afraid to call out his opposition and challenge them. He doesn't back down from a debate and will go head-to-head with anyone. There is something really appealing about someone who has that kind of confidence and the intellect and ideals to back it up.

I agree, though I have been critical in an email to his communications guy that really taking the flaming sword to other Republicans isn't conducive to building a majority. He pulls no punches when he calls out the NJ GOP leadership.

On the other hand, I do not profess to know anything about New Jersey politics. It could be that since Republicans have been baby-seal-clubbed for ages in Senate runs, that this bash-the-establishment message may re-energize the base, and maybe shake their brains to remember what it truly means to be a Republican---not the B.S. that has tainted the "establishment" for so long.

A white-guy in his early 60's, a bright professor who is well known in NJ politics, extremely articulate and adept at connecting with people --- he certainly has a shot and I hope Ron Paul supporters on here do what they can to support him.

Probably the most important thing that we can produce from this board in support of Dr. Sabrin is promoting his candidacy to everyone we know. Secondly, financial support of course.

[Jeremy]

Well it would obviously be Jim Guest since he's the incumbent, but I voted for B.J. Lawson. By the way, Sabrin is definitely not at the #1 spot. This poll is mostly a popularity contest

[nate895]

Well it would obviously be Jim Guest since he's the incumbent, but I voted for B.J. Lawson. By the way, Sabrin is definitely not at the #1 spot. This poll is mostly a popularity contest

I think it ought be noted, Guest is a member of the State Legislature, and not running for Congress.

[runningdiz]

I agree, though I have been critical in an email to his communications guy that really taking the flaming sword to other Republicans isn't conducive to building a majority. He pulls no punches when he calls out the NJ GOP leadership.

On the other hand, I do not profess to know anything about New Jersey politics. It could be that since Republicans have been baby-seal-clubbed for ages in Senate runs, that this bash-the-establishment message may re-energize the base, and maybe shake their brains to remember what it truly means to be a Republican---not the B.S. that has tainted the "establishment" for so long.

A white-guy in his early 60's, a bright professor who is well known in NJ politics, extremely articulate and adept at connecting with people --- he certainly has a shot and I hope Ron Paul supporters on here do what they can to support him.

Probably the most important thing that we can produce from this board in support of Dr. Sabrin is promoting his candidacy to everyone we know. Secondly, financial support of course.

Very excellent points. He has a chance mostly because the GOP establishment has no candidate they really support. Murray needs the money it has been reported that he has spent most of it already. Another thing to note a swell is that the primary is in June and will have a low turnout since the presidential primary has happened for NJ already.

[tomveil]

I voted for Michael Delvar just because I'm working with him, and our county took 73/86 Delegate Spots. We've got a lot of people working with us, and the right message. We may not take this year's election, but in 2010 we got it LOCKED UP.

[Peace&Freedom]

My criteria for analyzing the chances of RP candidates remains the same. Basically it's the same formula that regular politicians use to judge whether all the major factors are 'hardwired' for them to win, with no guessing or optimistic hoping. The template for winning a house seat is:

1) Open or clearly vulnerable seat, 2) Republican leaning district/state (or at least a swing area), 3) Winnable GOP nomination situation, 4) Strong candidate with credible background/standing, and 5) Nationally-deep support from voting blocs (or the grassroots Revolution network). If it's a Democratic-trending district/state, run a RP Democrat in a winnable Democratic nomination situation. And maybe 6) able to raise a bare minimum of roughly $400,000 (this could be part of 4).

Based on the above, I'd say Sabrin is the most hardwired to win, followed maybe by McKinley, while the rest are more a guess or a pipedream. Especially if they can't raise several hundred thousand, or are Republicans running in a Democratic leaning district. Expecting the latter to have a chance is classic 3rd party mentality. Running to win means structuring to be in position to win, not hoping for the best because you have the best message and a mere 10k in the bank.

[rodo1776]

Well said Peace&freedom. You obviously have some political experience!

[ThePieSwindler]

Sabrin winning would definately be the most high impact, since its a US senate seat. He also seems most likely to win, based on his political aptitude and his funding. Like P&F said, he seems to have the best criteria to win his seat - like, about 400k in the bank :-D

[weslinder]

Ron Paul - TX District 14 (Is that a cop out?)

From my view, Sabrin and Singh are running the best campaigns, but I'm sure that the political climates have much to do with it as the candidates.