A Realistic Strategy for a Brokered Convention

[No1ButPaul08]

A common theme around here is WAKE UP PEOPLE. Not as popular but people also like, "it will be a brokered convention." I say, WAKE UP PEOPLE, there hasn't been a brokered convention since 1952, before most states had people vote in primaries. The convention is not going to broker itself, something has to be done

As it stands, John McCain has ~720 delegates. Many people on here say, "it will be a brokered convention." That's the end of their story as they have no proof of that. McCain is on his way to steamroll to the nomination. The delegate count for the others, even RP at this point, really do not matter, as they do not stand a realistic chance at getting to 1191. If John McCain gets to 1191 it is over, and there will be no brokered convention. Therefore, the #1 goal at this point must be to Stop John McCain.
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The other goal is to get delegates in primary states where delegates are only bound from 1-3 ballots AND where the delegates aren't directly elected because they are supporters of a candidate. We'll call this a good state/bad state breakdown. The Caucus states will take care of themselves.

Good States: 19

AZ, AR, DW, FL, GA, ID, IN, MA, MI, MO, NJ, NM, NC, SC, SD, TX, VT, VA, OR

In these states delegates are elected away from the primary and could potenially be RP delegates in a brokered convention. These are the states where the work must be done on the delegate side. These delegates will initially be bound to other candidates, but if they are true RP supporters, they will turn once the convention becomes brokered.

Bad States: 19 and Puerto Rico (unless we get top 3????????)
AL (this one i'm not so sure, but delegates have already been elected anyway), CA, CT, DC, IL, Kansas (Caucus, but bad), KY, NH, MD, MS, NY, OH, OK, PN(not sure here either, delegates are on primary ballot, not sure if tied to candidate.), RI, UT (not really a bad state, but i figure Romney has got this one locked up), WI, WV (We got 3 delegates here, no more, Thank you Huck), WY

We are not get any delegates in these states. They are locked in until they are released. Most of them are for McCain. They are not getting released.

Caucus States: 13 + 4 territories(Guam, Am Samoa, VI, N Mariana)

AK, CO, HI, IA, LA, ME, MN, MT, NE (non-binding primary doesn't mean squat, similar to LA), NV, ND, WA (delegates are "morally bound" not "legally bound," which mean the primary and caucus don't mean squat, and the real action is at the district and state conventions, similare to LA and NE.

Caucus states can be good and bad. Most of them are still in the process and it's hard to determine who will get the delegates. They are good because RP can win delegates straight up in these states. They are bad because even though most of these states the delegates become unbound after a ballot or two, they are delegates because they support their candidate.
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That was goal #2, back to goal #1: STOPPING McCAIN

This is the part where I lose people by suggesting they vote for Mike Huckabee, read on please.

In Missouri. McNameDropper beat Huckabee by ~8,000 votes for all of Missouri's 58 winner-take-all delegates. Ron Paul got 25,000 votes. If RP's 25,000 votes go to Huckabee he wins and McCain doesn't get the delegates. Simply put, Ron Paul voters would have been much better off voting for Huckabee.

Delegates > votes........at this point.....delegates against McCain > votes for Ron Paul.

How do we do this, state by state we vote for Huck to stop McCain where necessary while trying to secure backroom delegates in the states I listed as good states.

Note some of the WTA are by state or by district/state but here they are pretty much the same as RP has no chance in those

2/9
KS: bad WTA caucus state (a rarity). Votes for Ron Paul are worthless. Vote Huck

Wash: worthless as delegates aren't legally bound, and they don't get elected here


2/12
DC: WTA we must vote for Huck, or McCain gets 18 very pledged delegates

VA: WTA, vote for Huck, become a delegate Very Important 67 WTA

MA: WTA we must vote for Huck, or McCain gets 37 very pledged delegates

2/19
Wash: worthless as delegates aren't legally bound, and they don't get elected here

WI: WTA we must vote for strongest of Romney or Huck, or McCain gets 40 very pledged delegates

3/4
OH: we need this WTA state of 88 delegates to go to Huck

RI: We need 15% to get delegates but in proportional so damage to McCain really can't be done here. Vote for Paul

TX: I can't in good conscience tell the people of Texas to not vote for Ron Paul. This is WTA by district/state. Some districts we might be better off trying to stop McCain. The 14th better go to RP. Another good state to become a delegate in.

VT: WTA, vote for Huck, become a delegate

3/11
MS: Another bad WTA state. A vote for Paul is a vote for McCain. A vote for Huckabee is a vote for Paul.

4/22
PA: A state where the delegate are on the ballot however I'm not sure if they are tied to a campaign (which would make it a bad state.) With that said, our goal should be keeping McCain delegates away from the convention. We have time here to figure that out.

Later States
Most of these RP should get the votes except IN, OR, and KY. I'll go into detail (and look like a genius),if we get to this point


If we can do all that we still have to get by the 5 state obstical. We can worry about that if the convention becomes brokered.

STOP JOHN McCAIN

EDIT: we should also try to convince Romney and Huck supporters to do this also.

EDIT: For the third party people, every email RP sends mentions a brokered convention, yet none mention a third party. He has also relied on the grassroots, this is our last chance for HIS goal

EDIT: Best case scenario might be a convention speech. Do not underrate this. Obama is who he is because of a convention speech
Ron really, really wants to speak at the convention. Not even sure if this is possible however. The more delegate the better

[libertythor]

Don't vote for anybody but Ron. Just become a stealth delegate in these states. Its not like you lose your life if you break and vote for Ron on the first ballot.

[No1ButPaul08]

Don't vote for anybody but Ron. Just become a stealth delegate in these states. Its not like you lose your life if you break and vote for Ron on the first ballot.

Delegates > votes

in some states.....delegates against McCain > votes for Ron

I understand your first ballot thing, but not all the delegates will be for RP. We must make them bound for anybody but McCain

Edit: Like my example in MO, some the 58 delegates could be RP supporters, but not all of them. It would be much, much better had those 58 been pledged to Huck

[m72mc]

Not all delegates the old media is reporting for mccain is binding!

besides, considering all the election fraud, the winner have to prove he won.

[No1ButPaul08]

Not all delegates the old media is reporting for mccain is binding!

besides, considering all the election fraud, the winner have to prove he won.

No, but most of them are, and the ones that aren't bound are very likely to be McCain supporters. There is no other way around it, he has to be stopped. Votes for Ron Paul in Virginia are worthless. Delegates there, can be of great value in a brokered convention. It makes no sense to vote for Ron. In this Southern state, a vote for Huckabee is a vote for Paul. A delegate for Paul is a delegate for Paul in a brokered convention.

We cannot blindly hope for a brokered convention. At intrade.com, the betting line shows there is around 9-15% (last trade was at 9%, people are asking 15%, it was a lot lower before the huckasurge in the south) chance of a brokered convention. Meanwhile here McCain sits at 93%. All of the people saying, "it will be a brokered convention," are welcome to go there and bet so they can clean up because they have knowledge the rest of us don't. Meanwhile, those of who realize it will be very hard, must do everything we can to make that happen. That starts by caucusing for whoever is closest to McCain in KS and voting for Huckabee in VA. Somebody, with logic, please tell me I'm wrong

[affa]

Bump, not because I agree, but because I'd like more discussion.

I completely understand the tactics here, though am unsure if they're practical. Specifically, trying to organize massive voting like this on a forum is unlikely to work. The end result could be enough people change to make Ron Paul's support look even more eroded, but not enough to sway the primary in the way we'd like.

Is it possible these strategic orders could come from up high? Or would that be considered unethical on the part of the campaign?

All in all, it's going to be hard to get any Ron Paul supporter to vote for anyone but Ron Paul.

[No1ButPaul08]

Bump, not because I agree, but because I'd like more discussion.

I completely understand the tactics here, though am unsure if they're practical. Specifically, trying to organize massive voting like this on a forum is unlikely to work. The end result could be enough people change to make Ron Paul's support look even more eroded, but not enough to sway the primary in the way we'd like.

Is it possible these strategic orders could come from up high? Or would that be considered unethical on the part of the campaign?

All in all, it's going to be hard to get any Ron Paul supporter to vote for anyone but Ron Paul.

This will have to done through meetups and any other way possible. People will have to understand a vote for Huck or Romney is a vote for Ron Paul. By voting for Ron Paul you are voting for John McCain. I do see McCain and Huckabee teaming up to stop this by Huck getting the VP. McCain should realize however that any ticket with Huckabee can't win. The guy is unelectable in a general election as P or VP

[affa]

Don't vote for anybody but Ron. Just become a stealth delegate in these states. Its not like you lose your life if you break and vote for Ron on the first ballot.

Is this true? Can bound delegates vote however they want?

How does convention voting occur? Secret paper ballots? Jelly beans? Raising your hand in the air like you just don't care?

[No1ButPaul08]

Is this true? Can bound delegates vote however they want?

How does convention voting occur? Secret paper ballots? Jelly beans? Raising your hand in the air like you just don't care?

They would be breaking a state law (i think). RP supporters would be willing, but in a lot of states McCain has won he picked the delegates.

I don't think the vote is secret.

[No1ButPaul08]

Bump, not because I agree, but because I'd like more discussion.

I completely understand the tactics here, though am unsure if they're practical. Specifically, trying to organize massive voting like this on a forum is unlikely to work. The end result could be enough people change to make Ron Paul's support look even more eroded, but not enough to sway the primary in the way we'd like.

Is it possible these strategic orders could come from up high? Or would that be considered unethical on the part of the campaign?

All in all, it's going to be hard to get any Ron Paul supporter to vote for anyone but Ron Paul.

I'm going to reply to this again. This will be very hard to do, but i think it is our only chance. It would be unethical for orders to come up high, but it would be up to them to make that choice, but i doubt it would happen. People have to understand that in some states votes for RP are worthless. A vote for Mike Huckabee is a vote for Ron Paul. A vote for Ron Paul is a vote for John McCain. If enough people understand this we can get it done. After all, the grassroots got all these supporters, they should be able to convert them to, "huckabee voters," for a day. Meanwhile they are supporting the RP delegate at their district convention. In some states this will not matter, but it can. If we would have converted 1/3 of RP supporters in to Huckabee voters in MO, huckabee would have those delegates and mccain wouldn't, a big net positive for RP and a brokered convention. Virginia is huge, we have to try this

[affa]

There is a lot of time between now and then. A McCain scandal here, a Ron Paul boom here (possibly due to his book), and... who knows how delegates will vote.

[No1ButPaul08]

There is a lot of time between now and then. A McCain scandal here, a Ron Paul boom here (possibly due to his book), and... who knows how delegates will vote.

I agree, but that's blind faith. Like i said, the oddsmakers show mccain having a 93% (I believe money bet over any poll, or 99% of opinions on here.) chance of winning the nomination. Most of the delegates will be bound. McCain is favored in most remaining states. He could, but I really doubt McCain stops himself (scandel/blowup) We have to try and stop him ourselves.

[parocks]

Excellent Post.

It seems like you've thought this through.

The campaign should hire you.

[B}A common theme around here is WAKE UP PEOPLE. Not as popular but people also like, "it will be a brokered convention." I say, WAKE UP PEOPLE, there hasn't been a brokered convention since 1952, before most states had people vote in primaries. The convention is not going to broker itself, something has to be done [/B]
As it stands, John McCain has ~720 delegates. Many people on here say, "it will be a brokered convention." That's the end of their story as they have no proof of that. McCain is on his way to steamroll to the nomination. The delegate count for the others, even RP at this point, really do not matter, as they do not stand a realistic chance at getting to 1191. If John McCain gets to 1191 it is over, and there will be no brokered convention. Therefore, the #1 goal at this point must be to Stop John McCain.
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The other goal is to get delegates in primary states where delegates are only bound from 1-3 ballots AND where the delegates aren't directly elected because they are supporters of a candidate. We'll call this a good state/bad state breakdown. The Caucus states will take care of themselves.

Good States: 19

AZ, AR, DW, FL, GA, ID, IN, MA, MI, MO, NJ, NM, NC, SC, SD, TX, VT, VA, OR

In these states delegates are elected away from the primary and could potenially be RP delegates in a brokered convention. These are the states where the work must be done on the delegate side. These delegates will initially be bound to other candidates, but if they are true RP supporters, they will turn once the convention becomes brokered.

Bad States: 19 and Puerto Rico (unless we get top 3????????)
AL (this one i'm not so sure, but delegates have already been elected anyway), CA, CT, DC, IL, Kansas (Caucus, but bad), KY, NH, MD, MS, NY, OH, OK, PN(not sure here either, delegates are on primary ballot, not sure if tied to candidate.), RI, UT (not really a bad state, but i figure Romney has got this one locked up), WI, WV (We got 3 delegates here, no more, Thank you Huck), WY

We are not get any delegates in these states. They are locked in until they are released. Most of them are for McCain. They are not getting released.

Caucus States: 13 + 4 territories(Guam, Am Samoa, VI, N Mariana)

AK, CO, HI, IA, LA, ME, MN, MT, NE (non-binding primary doesn't mean squat, similar to LA), NV, ND, WA (delegates are "morally bound" not "legally bound," which mean the primary and caucus don't mean squat, and the real action is at the district and state conventions, similare to LA and NE.

Caucus states can be good and bad. Most of them are still in the process and it's hard to determine who will get the delegates. They are good because RP can win delegates straight up in these states. They are bad because even though most of these states the delegates become unbound after a ballot or two, they are delegates because they support their candidate.
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That was goal #2, back to goal #1: STOPPING McCAIN

This is the part where I lose people by suggesting they vote for Mike Huckabee or Mitt Romney, read on please.

In Missouri. McNameDropper beat Huckabee by ~8,000 votes for all of Missouri's 58 winner-take-all delegates. Ron Paul got 25,000 votes. If RP's 25,000 votes go to Huckabee he wins and McCain doesn't get the delegates. Simply put, Ron Paul voters would have been much better off voting for Huckabee.

Delegates > votes........at this point.....delegates against McCain > votes for Ron Paul.

How do we do this, state by state we vote for Huck or Romney to stop McCain where necessary while trying to secure backroom delegates in the states I listed as good states.

Note some of the WTA are by state or by district/state but here they are pretty much the same as RP has no chance in those

2/9
KS: bad WTA caucus state (a rarity). Votes for Ron Paul are worthless. Vote for whoever is stronger between Romney and Huck

Wash: worthless as delegates aren't legally bound, and they don't get elected here


2/12
DC: WTA we must vote for strongest of Romney or Huck, or McCain gets 18 very pledged delegates

VA: WTA, vote for Huck, become a delegate Very Important 67 WTA

MA: WTA we must vote for strongest of Romney or Huck, or McCain gets 37 very pledged delegates

2/19
Wash: worthless as delegates aren't legally bound, and they don't get elected here

WI: WTA we must vote for strongest of Romney or Huck, or McCain gets 40 very pledged delegates

3/4
OH: I would guess Huck is stronger than Romney, we need this WTA state of 88 delegates to go to Huck

RI: We need 15% to get delegates but in proportional so damage to McCain really can't be done here. Vote for Paul

TX: I can't in good conscience tell the people of Texas to not vote for Ron Paul. This is WTA by district/state. Some districts we might be better off trying to stop McCain. The 14th better go to RP. Another good state to become a delegate in.

VT: WTA, vote for Romney, become a delegate

3/11 Another bad WTA state. A vote for Paul is a vote for McCain. A vote for Huckabee is a vote for Paul.

4/22
PA: A state where the delegate are on the ballot however I'm not sure if they are tied to a campaign (which would make it a bad state.) With that said, our goal should be keeping McCain delegates away from the convention. We have time here to figure that out.

Later States
Most of these RP should get the votes except IN, OR, and KY. I'll go into detail (and look like a genius),if we get to this point


If we can do all that we still have to get by the 5 state obstical. We can worry about that if the convention becomes brokered.

STOP JOHN McCAIN

EDIT: we should also try to convince Romney and Huck supporters to do this also.

[parocks]

No, but most of them are, and the ones that aren't bound are very likely to be McCain supporters. There is no other way around it, he has to be stopped. Votes for Ron Paul in Virginia are worthless. Delegates there, can be of great value in a brokered convention. It makes no sense to vote for Ron. In this Southern state, a vote for Huckabee is a vote for Paul. A delegate for Paul is a delegate for Paul in a brokered convention.

We cannot blindly hope for a brokered convention. At intrade.com, the betting line shows there is around 9-15% (last trade was at 9%, people are asking 15%, it was a lot lower before the huckasurge in the south) chance of a brokered convention. Meanwhile here McCain sits at 93%. All of the people saying, "it will be a brokered convention," are welcome to go there and bet so they can clean up because they have knowledge the rest of us don't. Meanwhile, those of who realize it will be very hard, must do everything we can to make that happen. That starts by caucusing for whoever is closest to McCain in KS and voting for Huckabee in VA. Somebody, with logic, please tell me I'm wrong

You are 100% right.

If McCain isn't stopped, and soon, we lose. Period.

[parocks]

I'm going to reply to this again. This will be very hard to do, but i think it is our only chance. It would be unethical for orders to come up high, but it would be up to them to make that choice, but i doubt it would happen. People have to understand that in some states votes for RP are worthless. A vote for Mike Huckabee is a vote for Ron Paul. A vote for Ron Paul is a vote for John McCain. If enough people understand this we can get it done. After all, the grassroots got all these supporters, they should be able to convert them to, "huckabee voters," for a day. Meanwhile they are supporting the RP delegate at their district convention. In some states this will not matter, but it can. If we would have converted 1/3 of RP supporters in to Huckabee voters in MO, huckabee would have those delegates and mccain wouldn't, a big net positive for RP and a brokered convention. Virginia is huge, we have to try this

Some other theories, tactics, to try to achieve the same result.
1) In states we've identified as Huck states -work for Huck, Romney states, work for Romney.
2) Negative ads on McCain. Push polling against McCain. Anything else against McCain.

[No1ButPaul08]

You are 100% right.

If McCain isn't stopped, and soon, we lose. Period.

It starts in KS, then VA. We have no chance in these states to win delegates through votes. I could never see myself voting for Huck or Romney, but then i looked at the Missouri results and saw that Huckabee lost by 8500 votes and we got 26k. The 26k votes don't mean anything. The 58 delegates to McCain sting. They would be much better off with Mike Huckabee, a man without a prayer of winning the nomination, haha

[No1ButPaul08]

Some other theories, tactics, to try to achieve the same result.
1) In states we've identified as Huck states -work for Huck, Romney states, work for Romney.
2) Negative ads on McCain. Push polling against McCain. Anything else against McCain.

Yes, RP can attack McCain. That should be his job. We can fund push polls or whatever. Dirty tricks stopped McCain once, let's see if we can do it again.

We need Romney supporters to vote for Huck in Huck states and vice/versa. It benefits them too.

[parocks]

Yes, RP can attack McCain. That should be his job. We can fund push polls or whatever. Dirty tricks stopped McCain once, let's see if we can do it again.

We need Romney supporters to vote for Huck in Huck states and vice/versa. It benefits them too.

As a Republican, I'd be a bit concerned about covering McCain with mud. If it's McCain vs Hillary, I'm certainly voting for McCain.

But, you've outlined the only reasonable chance for a Ron Paul victory at this point.

Goal #1 - STOP MCCAIN

If you knew that McCain started dating his current wife when he was married to his old wife, would that make you more likely to vote for McCain, less likely to vote for McCain or about the same?

[No1ButPaul08]

As a Republican, I'd be a bit concerned about covering McCain with mud. If it's McCain vs Hillary, I'm certainly voting for McCain.

But, you've outlined the only reasonable chance for a Ron Paul victory at this point.

Goal #1 - STOP MCCAIN

If you knew that McCain started dating his current wife when he was married to his old wife, would that make you more likely to vote for McCain, less likely to vote for McCain or about the same?

McCain's going to get covered with mud regardless, he already is. Which reminds perhaps we can get Rush and friends in on this. After all, they want to stop McCain. For the GOP, speaking in the long term, it might be better if they drop this election to Hillary. Let the Dems do their thing w/ the war, come back with a fresh start and nominate say, a Mark Sanford, a staunch fiscal conservative who isn't viewed as crazy, fair or not. Obviously that's assuming RP doesn't win the nomination.

[luvthedoc08]

this is a good thread, discuss this more, we need a very specific and well thought out strategy, if some of the senior members can agree upon something and write a comprehensive guideline that will go a long way

[No1ButPaul08]

this is a good thread, discuss this more, we need a very specific and well thought out strategy, if some of the senior members can agree upon something and write a comprehensive guideline that will go a long way

Yeah i expect the strategy to evolve as it goes. I think this should be an all-out effort. Meet-ups, websites, youtubes, talk radio, the works. McCain has to be stopped.

[parocks]

McCain's going to get covered with mud regardless, he already is. Which reminds perhaps we can get Rush and friends in on this. After all, they want to stop McCain. For the GOP, speaking in the long term, it might be better if they drop this election to Hillary. Let the Dems do their thing w/ the war, come back with a fresh start and nominate say, a Mark Sanford, a staunch fiscal conservative who isn't viewed as crazy, fair or not. Obviously that's assuming RP doesn't win the nomination.

Hillary is the devil. I wouldn't vote for Obama, but he's acceptable.
They're about tied right now, and Obama won Super Tuesday.

I'm sure that Huckabee would be in favor of the idea that Romney and Paul supporters vote for Huck in those states where Huck is #2. Why wouldn't Rush?

They could go on air and explain situational voting within the context of STOP MCCAIN.

It's a fairly simple concept. Look at the polls in your state. Vote for whoever of the top 2 guys isn't McCain.

[dkim68]

3/11 Another bad WTA state. A vote for Paul is a vote for McCain. A vote for Huckabee is a vote for Paul.

^
Which state are you referring to here?

[No1ButPaul08]

^
Which state are you referring to here?

Mississippi, thank you i'll edit

[qwerty]

Learn how to win, click the link in my signature!

[No1ButPaul08]

Learn how to win, click the link in my signature!

Please read this thread before posting that. I've read that thread and IMO that thread is worthless without this thread.

[No1ButPaul08]

bump

[No1ButPaul08]

bump for unblind faith

[qwerty]

my Point Is That, I Trust The Campaign And Will Stand Behind Their Decicions, Not Behind Some Internet Guy...

This Campaign Is Not Here For The First Time, They Have Had The Same Plan From The Beginning And It Think They Know What They Are Doing, So I Stand Behind Them.

If You Think Your Idea Is The Best, You Should Contact The Campaign With It, Not Spread It Around Here Anonymously...

[No1ButPaul08]

my Point Is That, I Trust The Campaign And Will Stand Behind Their Decicions, Not Behind Some Internet Guy...

This Campaign Is Not Here For The First Time, They Have Had The Same Plan From The Beginning And It Think They Know What They Are Doing, So I Stand Behind Them.

If You Think Your Idea Is The Best, You Should Contact The Campaign With It, Not Spread It Around Here Anonymously...

The campaign can't do this. Talk about unethical/shady/something RP would never do. But, It's the only option. Blindly believing there is going to be a brokered convension is crazy. CRAZY