Ron Paul Roundup (02-06-08)
by RS Davis
Hello Freedomphiles! So, yesterday was Super Tuesday, and this morning brings us many different attitudes about the results, from elation to feigned elation to despair. Before we get into all that, The Huntington News is reporting of a behind-the-scenes deal between Huckabee and Paul:
- When no candidate achieved 50% on the first ballot, supporters of Ron Paul and John McCain threw their support to Mike Huckabee...
...In the second deal with the Ron Paul campaign, three national delegates go to Paul and Huckabee gets 15 instead of 18. A Ron Paul press release confirmed the agreement made in conjunction with the Huckabee campaign.
At first, this was unbelievable to me, but after some thought, I can see why they would do this in a winner-take-all state like this. It's three more delegates for Paul that he would not have had.
The Los Angeles Times, who have always been evenhanded in their treatment, has a pretty good overview of Super Tuesday and Ron Paul:
- Rep. Ron Paul, the oldest person remaining in the presidential race and the only one who's also simultaneously running for Congress (you know, on the off chance he doesn't reach the White House), came in second in the Montana Republican caucuses, right behind former Gov. Mitt Romney.
The 72-year-old onetime ob-gyn, who was the most successful fundraiser among all Republicans last quarter, got 25% of the GOP vote in Big Sky Country to Romney's 38%. Paul also beat Sen. John McCain, who got only 22%, and Mike Huckabee, who trailed with 15%.
In North Dakota, Paul, with 21%, fell behind McCain, at 23%, and Romney, at 36%...
...With incomplete results, Paul looked to finish in the Golden State with about 4% of the GOP vote, way behind Huckabee at 12%, Romney at 25% and McCain at 44%. Alaska, where Paul had thought he might do well, also turned out to be disappointing, as Romney easily won.
In West Virginia, Paul's forces did gain three of the state's 18 GOP convention delegates in a deal to throw in with the winning Huckabee supporters and deny Romney his expected win there.
In Maine, where the arcane uncommitted caucus system defies explanation, Paul forces finished third in voting recently but believe they will end up ahead of McCain in terms of state convention delegates and second only to Romney. Paul also finished second to Romney in the Nevada caucuses and ahead of the now departed Rudy Giuliani in Iowa.
In other Super Tuesday states, some with incomplete results, Paul's showing was not so super. He finished last virtually everywhere -- with 8% in Colorado; 6% in New York and Tennessee; 5% in New Jersey, Arkansas and Illinois; 4% in Missouri and Arizona; and 3% in Oklahoma, Alabama, Massachusetts and Utah, though he beat Huckabee there.
Now, let's jump into the kiddie pool and hang out with the pee-waders that are calling it the end. Jeffrey Schwartz tries to hold back his glee on YourHub.com:
- This morning, the morning following Super Tuesday, I scour the 'Net to see who won what primaries and caucuses. I am particularly interested to see how many caucuses and primaries Paul won. After all, I was told by Paul's supporters that there was a vast right-wing conspiracy (remind you of anyone running for president?) to keep Paul out of the debates (I must have a magic TV because I saw Paul in every debate I watched) and to suppress his poll numbers. After all, I was shown link after link after link of underground (yet unscientific) polls that showed Paul had a commanding lead. I was told that all of the money Paul was bringing in only proved how much support he had.
Yet, I fail to see a single state that Paul won.
Two things concern me greatly about Paul's rabid supporters (I am not suggesting that all of his supporters are rabid, there are decent people who support Paul because of his message and can look beyond the messenger) - the fact that these supporters are living in a fantasy world and the fact that these supporters are now suggesting they will write-in Paul or, just as bad, stay home on Election Day.
I suggest that Paul's rabid fans live in a fantasy world because even this morning, they are saying that the fight is not over and that the nomination process has not ended. Part of what they say is very true - the race is not over. Mitt Romney still has a chance. Not a great chance, but a chance. But, to suggest that Paul stands a chance, any chance, of winning the nomination is completely unrealistic. There is now a 0.0% chance that Ron Paul will be the nominee. He has failed to win a single state up to this point. Even if Paul won every single state between today and the last state to vote, Paul will never earn enough delegates to win.
Jim Roberts writes on The National Ledger that he told us so:
- Mitt Romney suffered through a very rough night, but even he fared better than long shot Republican presidential candidate Ron Paul. At one point in this race, Paul dreamed of a brokered convention and he believed that he might actually have a voice in the nomination process. After the Super Tuesday results, that is no longer valid.
I'm not certain what Ron Paul or his supporters are looking for, but they are certainly not going to find it in the Republican Party. His run made waves and got the Internet buzzing, and even raised a lot of cash, but this is the end for Ron Paul. He couldn't even win Alaska, which Paul supporters claimed would be an easy win.
In more practical ways, some people are feeling defeated but looking to the future. Left-libertarian Digital Bob thinks we should condsider Plan B:
- Even with aberrations in the delegate projections, it looks like McCain gets over half, Romney about a third, and Huckabee with a surprising sixth. With McCain's projected delegate count at over 600, he's over half way to the 1,191 needed to get the nomination.
For those who passionately believe in smaller government, greater personal freedom, and an end to war in Iraq, supporting any of the other three candidates isn't palatable. While Romney and Huckabee continue to cannibalize each other's base, it looks like McCain will waltz into the convention with the most delegates, if not a lock on the nomination.
From the beginning, Ron Paul said that this race is not about him, but the message. Unless his campaign can do something quickly to change these trends, the message will finish fourth, along with the candidate.
With very few delegates to date, he doesn't have the leverage to negotiate with Romney or Huckabee. He does have a few million dollars in the bank, which may be more than the three amigos combined. If he stays in, and Huckabee drops out, which doesn't seem likely as long as the governor has some money to continue, there will be less competition for the libertarian message. Discounting a possible run in another party, it's probably the best Paul can hope for.
He doesn't exactly say what plan b is, though, so I'm not sure what he's getting at. Caleb Friz writes on Op-Ed News a suggestion for what Ron Paul supporters should do now:
- And so the question remains: where do we go from here? The general answer is to continue on the path we are already on: we need to keep being media activists and call the major networks on innaccurate and unfairly biased stories, as well as diseminating the correct information alongside this critique. We need to keep spreading the word about America's disastrous and immoral foreign policy that includes a well-researched historical and economic perspective, and all this through whatever means are at our disposal: blogs, videos, e-mails, and most-importantly, face-to-face conversations with our friends, family, and those we meet.
Finally, the million dollar question: so who do we vote for in the presidential election in November? I'm sure that a lot of people are so closely wedded to the Paul campaign that they intend to write him in. However, personally I would recommend Cynthia Mckinney of the Green Party. The Green Party is not just for those too liberal for the Democrats--it is a haven for all those who are fed up with the two party system and want to see more choice in our electoral process. They, along with Paul, are crusaders against undeclared, immoral wars of aggression and for restoring the right and liberties in the constitution. They are for reduced military spending and an international military deescalation. They are also vocal supporters of impeachment and a new 9/11 investigation, which many Paul supporters wish he would have stood behind. But wherever you decide to go, and whoever you decide to vote for in November, keep fighting for truth and freedom and it has been an honor working alongside you in that struggle.
If I am being honest, I believe the chances of Ron Paul gaining the Republican nomination are about what I believed them to be a year ago - slim to nil. That is why I have always thought he should be considering taking his message to a 3rd Party or independent run. I don't know if it is now too late to do that, but he should consider it.
But regarding the above passage, if you aren't planning on writing him in, don't vote Green Party. If you truly believe in Ron Paul's message, the pot-smoking socialists over there only cover about half of your concerns. Go Libertarian. That's more like a 90% match.
But I'm not quite ready to give up on him yet. Sure, it's unlikely - but it was always unlikely. But you know what? History is full of stories of unlikely heroes and victorious underdogs - like the patriots that fought for their freedom over 200 years ago.
Let's move on to a more optimistic take on Super Tuesday - those people were total buzzkills. Left-libertarian Abelardo J Arias reminds us on The Nolan Chart that this is a marathon, not a sprint:
- But the reality today is that all four GOP contenders are still in the game. It is absurd for the MSM to convince Americans that one candidate or the other is out based on one day's totals.
Ron Paul has thus far baffled the MSM and won more than they would have ever given him credit for. Sure the MSM will say his campaign is finished. But they said that from the very beginning on their smug faces refusing to give anyone but their chosen candidates the time of day. It is a total disservice to democracy. They did it to Dennis Kucinich and Mike Gravel on the left and they are still doing it to Ron Paul on the right.
Ron Paul may indeed run as an independent but we should help him move full steam ahead to the brokered GOP convention. Every day the campaign is alive we pick up new supporters.
I'm not going to quit on Dr. Paul. Not after we: 1) won 2nd in Louisiana, Montana, Nevada and Maine; 2) placed 3rd in Alaska, North Dakota and Utah; 3) Paul beat McCain is some of these states; and, 4) won 3 delegates from the West Virginia caucus. This is more than the MSM expected. Let's continue to blow their expectations.
Reason's David Weigel gives us all the best advice of the day:
- Paul supporters, if you learn anything from this election, it should be this: Stop wasting your damn time waving signs on street corners. Canvassing and phone-banking aren't fun, but they win elections.
Great advice, and advice I've been giving for some time now. Sadly, that's pretty much it. I think that the people who wrote the above are the ones who still believe a little. The rest, it seems, just went away.
You can count on me, though, Freedomphiles. I am still on-board with Ron Paul, and more importantly, I am still on-board with freedom.
- "God forbid we should ever be twenty years without such a rebellion. The people cannot be all, and always, well informed. The part which is wrong will be discontented, in proportion to the importance of the facts they misconceive. If they remain quiet under such misconceptions, it is lethargy, the forerunner of death to the public liberty...And what country can preserve its liberties, if it's rulers are not warned from time to time, that this people preserve the spirit of resistance? Let them take arms. The remedy is to set them right as to the facts, pardon and pacify them. What signify a few lives lost in a century or two? The tree of liberty must be refreshed from time to time, with the blood of patriots and tyrants. It is its natural manure."
Those are the words of Thomas Jefferson, and I believe he was right. We may not need a bloody and violent revolution, but every generation of Americans must re-commit themselves to the principles of limited government, individual rights, peace and freedom.
We've long since abandoned those principles to political expediency and the greed that comes from being able to vote ourselves gifts from the public treasury.
Win or lose, it is our duty to remain ever-vigilant in the name of liberty, to turn people on to the blessings of freedom one at a time, one irrefutable argument at a time. We need to talk about it, write about it, vote for it. This rEVOLution is bigger than one man. It's a reawakening of the American spirit of independence and self-reliance, and it needs time to blossom.
But without us, that will never happen. Make it happen.
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Originally Posted by MN Patriot
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