Interesting Odds: Brokered Convention, Winning Republican Nomination, Third Pary Run

[da32130]

First off, I think we need to work to get the message spread, even if it is only for longer term goals.

The debt problems, housing prices, and maybe Iraq(if the dems don't pull out) are only going to get worse over the next 4 years.

In the short term, I'm am trying to make sure we are on the same page so we can plan better.

Here are some odds for you from intrade.com

Odds to win repub nomination (ave bid ask):
McCain 84.6
Romney 13.15
Paul 1.55
Huckabee 1.25
Giuliani 1.05

everyone else is under 1

Odds of a Repub brokered convention:
6.25

Odds of Paul running third party/independent:
19.1


What this says to me is we need to get the precincts leaders all across the country, even in states already past their primary/caucus. Because he may take this third party under some circumstances(like 180k precinct leaders to cover the country).

In the month of January about 15k precinct leaders signed up. If that momentum could continue here is what we have:

January 15k
February 30k
March 45k
April 60k
May 75k
June 90k
July 105k
August 120k
September 135k
October 150k

The country would be blanketed.

Even if he didn't run we would be in a great position in 4 years. If we could raise money and awareness early he could be the frontrunner that gets all the free media and people feel like they have to vote for him or the other guy.

For me, I have mixed feeling about an independent run because it could damage him in 4 years trying to run Republican again.

Once the conventions are finished in Sept 2008, people will be talking about Republican candidates in the Summer of 2010. So if we can build up in that time he could get that early exposure.

[Aldanga]

Could he run in 4 years? I think he could live another 20, but the age factor could hurt him in '12.

[da32130]

Could he run in 4 years? I think he could live another 20, but the age factor could hurt him in '12.

If McCain were to win he would be nearly the same age running for re election.

Also, Reagan was 73 running for reelection in 1984. In 2012 people should be able to be a little bit older. Paul would be 77.

It could be an issue. There could also be another candidate that could use the machine we would have built.

[MayTheRonBeWithYou]

Ron needs to run THIS YEAR independent.

We could easily get all 180k precint leaders. The problem now is that people feel dispirited by the poor showing in the GOP, but if they had hope for REAL success with an indy run, the movement would be infused with huge momentum.

[Aldanga]

Yeah, I'm just thinking about running for a second term. It seems the American people want two terms out of a President, not just one. He'd be running for President again at 81 if he were elected in four years.

Having another man--a good man--stand up and take on the mantra of Dr. Paul would be the best thing to happen in a while. I would go for that.

[da32130]

Yeah, I'm just thinking about running for a second term. It seems the American people want two terms out of a President, not just one. He'd be running for President again at 81 if he were elected in four years.

Having another man--a good man--stand up and take on the mantra of Dr. Paul would be the best thing to happen in a while. I would go for that.

Maybe Paul could start planning a run and then if the age thing becomes an issue throw his support to an up and coming Obama(in the aura sense) like Paul supporter? Do we have any?

[Aldanga]

I have no idea. Does anyone know

That's still eight years away. Somebody could pop up by then...

[Diana]

Good thoughts. If we all keep on working at turning the tide for the long term, we may be able to do it. It's been done before.

[Ogren]

Good idea. Massachusetts has had its deadline pass to vote but I'll still get the word out to dems and repubs alike so they may vote for him in the general.

[Aldanga]

We can do it. There's no maybe here. It will be done.

[acptulsa]

And I say we know some things intrade.com doesn't know. Furthermore, we don't need to tell them. We'd just have to shoot them.

The odds of a brokered convention are far, far higher than that. Their calculations are based on being able to stick a fork in the Rev. Mr. Huckabee now. He will, however, be winning states on Super Tuesday. He's not done yet.

They got it wrong. Thank you, though, for getting people to think about various short and long term scenarios. We need to.

[da32130]

I have no idea. Does anyone know

That's still eight years away. Somebody could pop up by then...

the early feelers for potential nominees in the summer 2010 are only 2.5 years away(less than two years by the time of the convention)

[Joe3113]

We can do it. There's no maybe here. It will be done.

I think third party could re-ignite the grassroots. We'd have until November to make something amazing happen.

P.S. I like your signature.

[CelestialRender]

For me, I have mixed feeling about an independent run because it could damage him in 4 years trying to run Republican again.

He's tired. I strongly doubt he would run in 2008, even if he could.

And as long as our ranks stayed in the Republican party, we would still be just as set to rally behind whoever our candidate would be next time.

[vanadium]

If Paul doesn't finish favorably on Super Tuesday and runs independent, he'll force the Republican Party to lose and take the 4 years to figuring out how to extract their heads from their asses.

[da32130]

And I say we know some things intrade.com doesn't know. Furthermore, we don't need to tell them. We'd just have to shoot them.

The odds of a brokered convention are far, far higher than that. Their calculations are based on being able to stick a fork in the Rev. Mr. Huckabee now. He will, however, be winning states on Super Tuesday. He's not done yet.

They got it wrong. Thank you, though, for getting people to think about various short and long term scenarios. We need to.

Before Florida the odds were over 20%. In December as high as 50%.

So they have been seeing that possibility.

Right now McCain is scheduled to win everything but the Romney(utah, mass) and Huckabee(arkansas) strongholds.

We need them and Paul to upset on Feb 5.

[Peace&Freedom]

Future potential torchbearers for the Paul Revolution include: Paul himself (if he wants to run again), Gov. Mark Warner, Murray Sabrin (if he wins the NJ Senate race), or Paul's VP choice (whoever that is).

[Chester Copperpot]

Ron needs to run THIS YEAR independent.

We could easily get all 180k precint leaders. The problem now is that people feel dispirited by the poor showing in the GOP, but if they had hope for REAL success with an indy run, the movement would be infused with huge momentum.

im starting to agree with that sentiment

[Neomatrix]

Rand Paul 2012! I say we start our own ooligarchy!