Paul 23% (+2)
Romney 20% (+4)
Gingrich 14% (-8)
Bachmann 10% (-1)
Perry 10% (+1)
Santorum 10% (+2)
Huntsman 4% (-1)
Johnson 2% (+1)
http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/m...s-in-iowa.html
Iowa
12/16 - 12/18
597 likely caucus voters
+/-4.0%
Paul 23 21 18 10 16 11Romney 20 16 16 22 19 26Gingrich 14 22 27 8 5 15Bachmann 10 11 13 8 18 14Perry 10 9 9 9 22Santorum 10 8 6 5 5Huntsman 4 5 4 1 3 2Johnson 2 1 1 1 0
Ron Paul Crosstabs:
12/16
12/18
12/11
12/13
12/3
12/5
10/7
10/10
8/19
8/21
5/27
5/30
18-29 38 42 17 36 38 2530-45 31 25 25 12 15 1046-65 15 16 16 7 14 9>65 15 13 11 5 10 9Man 27 22 20 8 21 13Woman 18 20 15 12 9 8
Second Choice:
12/16
12/18
12/11
12/13
12/3
12/5
10/7
10/10
Bachmann 15 11 10 11Perry 14 10 11 12Gingrich 13 14 17 17Romney 12 13 13 11Paul 9 12 10 9Santorum 9 8 9 5Huntsman 7 7 5 3Johnson 1 1 2 1
Newt Gingrich's campaign is rapidly imploding, and Ron Paul has now taken the lead in Iowa. He's at 23% to 20% for Mitt Romney, 14% for Gingrich, 10% each for Rick Santorum, Michele Bachmann, and Rick Perry, 4% for Jon Huntsman, and 2% for Gary Johnson.
Gingrich has now seen a big drop in his Iowa standing two weeks in a row. His share of the vote has gone from 27% to 22% to 14%. And there's been a large drop in his personal favorability numbers as well from +31 (62/31) to +12 (52/40) to now -1 (46/47). Negative ads over the last few weeks have really chipped away at Gingrich's image as being a strong conservative- now only 36% of voters believe that he has 'strong principles,' while 43% think he does not.
Paul's ascendancy is a sign that perhaps campaigns do matter at least a little, in a year where there has been a lot of discussion about whether they still do in Iowa. 22% of voters think he's run the best campaign in the state compared to only 8% for Gingrich and 5% for Romney. The only other candidate to hit double digits on that question is Bachmann at 19%. Paul also leads Romney 26-5 (with Gingrich at 13%) with the 22% of voters who say it's 'very important' that a candidate spends a lot of time in Iowa. Finally Paul leads Romney 29-19 among the 26% of likely voters who have seen one of the candidates in person.
Paul's base of support continues to rely on some unusual groups for a Republican contest. Among voters under 45 he's at 33% to 16% for Romney and 11% for Gingrich. He's really going to need that younger than normal electorate because with seniors Romney's blowing him out 31-15 with Gingrich coming in 2nd at 18%. Paul is also cleaning up 35-14 with the 24% of voters who identify as either Democrats or independents. Romney is actually ahead 22-19 with GOP voters. Young people and non-Republicans are an unusual coalition to hang your hat on in Iowa, and it will be interesting to see if Paul can actually pull it off.
Let's roll.
Site Information
About Us
- RonPaulForums.com is an independent grassroots outfit not officially connected to Ron Paul but dedicated to his mission. For more information see our Mission Statement.
Connect With Us