Amash 42, Ellis 23 In MI-3 Primary Poll
U.S. Rep. Justin AMASH (R-Cascade Twp.) is leading "establishment" Republican primary challenger Brian ELLIS nearly two to one, 42 to 23 percent, according to the results of MIRS-commissioned survey of the 3rd Congressional District conducted by Practical Political Consulting (PPC).
The May 27-29 robo survey of 472 respondents showed 35 percent of voters are still undecided, a much lower number than the 74 percent of likely GOP voters who told PPC two weeks ago they were undecided in the nearly 8th Congressional District primary (See "GOP Voters Still Making Up Mind In MI-8," 5/16/14).
The poll has a margin of error of 4.5 percent.
PPC's Mark GREBNER described the incumbent as having "a solid, but not overwhelming lead" more than two months from the Aug. 5 primary election.
For the MIRS/PPC poll, 6,000 likely Republican primary voters were called in the Kent County-based district with a response rate of 7.9 percent.
The results come in the West Michigan race where significant business interest are attempting to unseat the "liberty"-minded, maverick Congressman, who was is seeking his third term in Congress in his first one-on-one Republican primary.
He won the seat in the 2010 in a divided, five-way primary where he received 40 percent of the vote.
"These results show the broad support for Congressman Amash's principled, conservative record and the unpopularity of establishment politicians like Brian Ellis who support Obamacare, Common Core, corporate welfare, and spying on all Americans," said Connie LEMMINK of the Amash campaign.
Like the MI-8 poll two weeks ago, supporters of the Tea Party (34 percent) are slightly larger than the opposition (29 percent), but those without any view at all on the Tea Party are actually a slim plurality (37 percent).
Grebner said it's clear that Ellis is perceived as the "non-Tea Party" candidate, actually leading Amash among voters who don't look upon the Tea Party favorably (38 to 26 percent with 37 percent undecided)
But he's "getting clobbered" among the remaining 72 percent of the electorate. Among Tea Party supporters, Ellis is down 64 to 19 percent with 17 percent undecided. Among those essentially impartial about the Tea Party, Amash is up 42 to 19 percent with 39 percent undecided.
According to the survey, Amash is winning heavily in the small counties away from Kent -- Ionia, Barry, Calhoun and the tiny part of Montcalm -- which Grebner suggested speaks more to Amash's use of incumbency and the Ellis campaign's preoccupation of the large population center in Kent.
"The latter effect -- Ellis's weakness rather than Amash's strength -- seems to be indicated by the large undecided vote in the outlying counties," Grebner wrote.
Ellis spokesperson Megan WELLS said for an incumbent to be at 42 percent -- below 50 percent -- shows what the campaign has known all along -- that Amash is vulnerable.
The results come 24 hours after the Amash campaign heralded the results of a FreedomWorks poll conducted by "the polling company, inc." that showed Amash up 53 to 23 percent on Ellis. That survey has Amash with a 57 percent favorability rating. Thirty percent haven't heard of Ellis, an East Grand Rapids School Board member who announced his challenge of Amash in October (See "Amash Has Challenger In 3rd CD," 10/8/13).
Club for Growth had a poll in February that had Amash at 60 percent.
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