Pender: Who’s running for what in ’15
Geoff Pender, The Clarion-Ledger 9:15 p.m. CDT July 19, 2014
Senate battle has stunted maneuvering for state elections, but some races shaping up.
(Photo: Joe Ellis/The Clarion-Ledger, The Clarion-Ledger)
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In normal times, with the Neshoba County Fair and a state office election year approaching, all kinds of names would be popping in political circles — who might run for what state office — and jockeying and fundraising would be full tilt.
These are not normal political times in Mississippi politics, with the GOP U.S. Senate primary malingering and half the state Republican Party hatin’ on the other.
The Thad Cochran-Chris McDaniel — establishment vs. tea party — battle will certainly have an impact on next year’s elections and even beyond.
But no race lasts forever, and there is some other state election buzz afoot.
Here it is:
Top of the ticket
A second term for Republican Gov. Phil Bryant still appears fait accompli. He might have taken a little radioactivity from his support of Cochran, but it’s hard to imagine him facing a serious tea party challenge. Cochran endorsement aside, he’s been their guy, and look for Bryant in the next legislative session to carry any water the tea party wants to make amends.
Of course, there is talk of McDaniel, assuming his loss to Cochran stands, running for governor. But the national tea party groups that buoyed McDaniel with millions of dollars for the Senate race won’t pump such money into a state contest. Plus, Bryant would, unlike Cochran, peel off a chunk of the tea party vote even from its new spiritual leader, and McDaniel would lose some of his base that was voting against Washington but not for the tea party.
Bryant’s ouster by a Democrat appears even more unlikely. The rip in the GOP does appear to have breathed new life into the Yellow Dog, but the Democratic Party — with limited fundraising capabilities or candidates with statewide name recognition — will still have to pick its battles. It’s probably better served looking down-ticket from the governor’s office, including trying to take back a House majority it lost in 2011.
Of course, Democratic Attorney General Jim Hood remains popular and could give anyone a run for their money. But the fire in the belly for governor or other higher offices just doesn’t seem to be there. He’s never seemed to like politics or fundraising all that much. And although he tried to put it to rest last year, the question heard most frequently is whether he’ll even seek re-election. His moving his family back to northeast Mississippi and telecommuting to Jackson doesn’t sound like someone gearing up for a gubernatorial race.
‘Lite’ governor
Here’s one to watch.
Tea party, Democrats, other Republicans — incumbent GOP Lt. Gov. Tate Reeves is likely to draw a challenge or three next year.
Bryant dislikes him — he’s been a foil to many of the governor’s policy initiatives — and would probably encourage a Republican challenger.
McDaniel despises him. Reeves has kept the ambitious McDaniel and others who supported Billy Hewes III in 2011 in time out in the state Senate. If McDaniel wants to go for a statewide office, this would be a logical choice. If he doesn’t, McDaniel’s tea party sidekick state Sen. Michael Watson, R-Pascagoula, is oft mentioned as a possibility, although he lacks statewide name recognition.
Republican Secretary of State Delbert Hosemann, who kept his powder dry in the U.S. Senate race, is also frequently mentioned as a possibility for lieutenant governor. He’s pooh-poohed this before, and staying put as SOS wouldn’t hinder a run for governor or something else between now and ’19, but I’m told he’s being nudged to consider it.
Reeves is a shrewd, and now seasoned, politician and consummate fundraiser. He’ll also have the backing of the Haley Barbour political machine. Normally such deep pockets and machinery would ward off challengers. But, as recent polling has confirmed, the Barbour machine has lost some of its shine over its dealings in the Cochran-McDaniel race and faces FEC investigations moving forward. And Reeves could easily become the focus of the tea party’s ire from the nasty U.S. Senate race.
Rising star, other races
Brandon Presley is the rising star of the state Democratic Party. Most politicos consider it a question of when, not if, the Northern District public service commissioner and former mayor of Nettleton will seek higher office, and his name comes up often for governor, lieutenant governor, you name it.
Presley laughed this off last week. He joked that such talk mainly stems from his having lost 216 pounds over the last year. But, he also admits, he has “stepped up” his fundraising, including outside his PSC district.
Presley has populist appeal. He’s been a champion for consumers and their pocketbooks on the board that oversees utilities. While still lacking in name recognition outside north Mississippi, he’s made inroads, particularly in south Mississippi, where he’s earned kudos for bucking the Kemper power plant.
Otherwise, the Democratic Party, buoyed by the internecine warfare in the GOP and by its successes last year in municipal races, will likely focus on state House races, trying to overturn the slim, 64-58, GOP majority. A proposed ballot initiative for full funding of the Mississippi Adequate Education Program is expected to help Democratic turnout.
Some other potential match ups and maneuvers include:
• Republican state Rep. Mark Baker and Andy Taggart, GOP leader, author and former chief of staff to Gov. Kirk Fordice, are still testing the waters on a challenge to Hood for attorney general.
• Tea party leaders are said to be seeking someone to challenge Republican State Auditor Stacey Pickering, over his endorsement of Cochran over his fellow Jones Countian McDaniel.
• John Mosley, owner of Clinton Body Shop who’s leading what may become a national lawsuit against insurance companies over repair practices, has announced he’ll challenge incumbent state Insurance Commissioner Mike Chaney.
The Neshoba County Fair opens July 25, with the traditional political stumping July 30-31. More political intel and intentions should be forthcoming.
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