Lies, Damned Lies, and COVID-19 Statistics
Lies, Damned Lies, and COVID-19 Statistics
Brian4Liberty - July 20, 2020
Everyday, the media floods the public with fear inducing statistics on the number of "new" cases of COVID-19. There is usually a graph to accompany the story. Politicians will claim that they follow the facts and science. There is nothing scientific about their use of statistics.
For a statistics to be followed over time, compared to past results, and graphed, there is one hard scientific and statistical rule that must be followed. The criteria and methodology for collecting those statistics must remain the same over time. That rule has not been followed.
For example, imagine an effort to count stray cats in the US. The first week, one person in each state is sent out to verify and count a cat when a person calls to report a stray cat. The second week, there are three people counting cats in each state. The next month, there are 10 people in each state chasing down cats to count. Sometimes, they check to see if the cat has an owner and they don't count it. Sometimes, they don't check for an owner and just count it anyway.
Over time, the criteria changes constantly as to what constitutes a stray cat. After 6 months, there are 10,000 people in every state, running around counting cats. They go in backyards, they go into homes. They count every cat they find, some cats get counted more than once. Probable stray cats are now counted. Might be a small dog, a possum or an armadillo, but it stills counts.
Now graph the number of "stray cats" over time. The resulting graph should be obvious. A massive increase in stray cats over time.
No one can dispute the fact that the methodology and criteria for COVID-19 statistics have changed many times during the pandemic. To make matter worse, they are not consistent from one county to the next, one state to the next, or one nation to the next.
What counts as a "new" case or a death from COVID-19 has been controversial right from the start. A recent episode of a person who died in a motorcycle accident but was counted as a COVID-19 death is but one sad example.
Never before has this number of people been tested for a disease, especially testing people with no symptoms. This is unprecedented, and the result is statistics that can not be compared to any other disease. The statistics and graphs currently being used to "track" new cases of COVID-19 over time are scientifically invalid.
If the goal is to follow the science, then it is a failure. If the goal is to sow fear as part of a political agenda, then it has been very successful.