Housing Builds on Recovery; Prices up 4.3% YoY

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The S&P/Case-Shiller index of property values in 20 cities increased 4.3 percent from October 2011, the biggest 12-month advance since May 2010, the group said today in New York.

The price increase accelerated from a 3 percent advance in the 12 months ended September. The Case-Shiller index is based on a three-month average, which means the October data were influenced by transactions in August and September.

Residential homebuilding has contributed 0.3 percentage point to gross domestic product on average in the first three quarters of 2012, according to Commerce Department data. The last time it added to growth for an entire year was in 2005, when it boosted the economy by 0.36 point.

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http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-1...-rebounds.html

Housing is back.

I would not say housing is back - it will most likely muddle along mostly flat for a few years.

I do however think that US housing in a lot of areas has bottomed and there is little downside left.

This is nominally speaking - The Bernank is actively debasing the dollar and housing is a real asset that cannot just be created out of thin air.

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Originally Posted by Jordan

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-1...-rebounds.html

Housing is back.

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The nominal price of housing will increase at some point. Unlikely that the exchange value of housing in terms of other goods will ever revisit its peak.

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Originally Posted by Acala

The nominal price of housing will increase at some point. Unlikely that the exchange value of housing in terms of other goods will ever revisit its peak.

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I totally agree, mostly because there is enough supply out there. I don't think housing is going back to its peak, but it is undervalued.

Housing markets are vastly different and the degree of competition between markets is not enough to make such a homogeneous index accurate, IMO. I think there are certain characteristics which have caused certain markets to fall much more than others....namely, anywhere that people would buy second homes: beach properties, warm climates, waterfront areas that aren't more than a couple hours from metropolitan areas.

Places like New York and San Francisco, I'm not sure there's really been a huge crunch...a dip, sure, but those markets could rebound well above their previous highs. Places like my hometown, which doubled in housing units from 2000 to 2008 and still has about 40-50% of those new units for sale.....those types of markets will be hurting for another decade, at least.

"Back" as in back to where it was during the bubble- heck no. But it has definately been rising off the bottom and a wise investor will want to get in if they can while they are more affordable.

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Originally Posted by Jordan

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-1...-rebounds.html

Housing is back.

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:rolleyes:

Are we there yet?

http://www.ronpaulforums.com/showthr...m-is-emerging/

Housing is not back and the current gain is as artificial as the housing bubble 7 years ago. It's true that current prices are not the same as 2005 but government backed low interest rate loans are still there to entice investors into buying secondary investment properties. Also, it would be wise not to ignore the millions of foreclosed and currently bank owned vacant houses that are part of the shadow inventory. These banksters will hold on to these in order to get more free money during the next bailout.

hahahahahahaha

Alright... keep thinking that... I work in real estate as a legal clerk and 80% of sales are from the HUD! YES THE FUCKING HUD! The HUD is the ONLY Thing keeping housing afloat (at least here in Chicago). Without it prices would die another 30-40%

Keep thinking what you want to think but I know the reality... property is nowhere near a bottom... what we're seeing now is the sheep lining back up in confidence like some kind of recovery is around the corner.

Little do they know the second they start thinking this the money velocity, which is at all time lows, would skyrocket and we would get hit with the massive inflation of the last 5 years.

Nothing has bottomed, nothing is real... everything is being propped up by an illusionary mirage of 85billion a month being printed by the fed... in 12 months that's another trillion and a 25% increase in base money supply...

Yes... things are all better... go back to sleep!

HUD is the only thing keeping anything afloat , from what I have read .

[QUOTE=NoOneButPaul;4792301]hahahahahahaha

Alright... keep thinking that... I work in real estate as a legal clerk and 80% of sales are from the HUD! YES THE FUCKING HUD! The HUD is the ONLY Thing keeping housing afloat (at least here in Chicago). Without it prices would die another 30-40%

Keep thinking what you want to think but I know the reality... property is nowhere near a bottom... what we're seeing now is the sheep lining back up in confidence like some kind of recovery is around the corner. I actually think Chicago has the potential to be the next Detroit, high taxes will send jobs fleeing , 80 % of the kids in public school in the district qualify for lunch assistance.That means, nothing but low paying jobs.....

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Originally Posted by NoOneButPaul

hahahahahahaha

Alright... keep thinking that... I work in real estate as a legal clerk and 80% of sales are from the HUD! YES THE FUCKING HUD! The HUD is the ONLY Thing keeping housing afloat (at least here in Chicago). Without it prices would die another 30-40%

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Dangerous, decaying neighborhoods in rust belt States don't count.

On the flip side, the fact that Bennie boy is printing so much money - it is supportive of real assets...certainly nominally.

There will be no 2nd crash like the first (for housing, specifically).

Could there be a long grind sideways, or even bleeding steadily lower? Sure, I find that to be the most likely outcome. Crash? No. Rarely do bubbles or bull markets have two enormous crashes spaced over half a decade.

Even in the Great Depression, the 2nd wave of cascading defaultx and asset price plunges were no where near as dire as the first and was more of a slow bleed.

This time around, defaults aren't being allowed (not like in the Great Depression). They are printing money and buying the assets off the books of private banks onto the books of the taxpayer. From the standpoint of mortgage size to asset value, the worst of it is over. Bennie will print and print some more.

WHEN velocity of this money picks up - you will see real estate prices go UP by a fair margin (in real terms is a different story). Gold/silver/agriculture commodities will go up even more.

The real problems now are much, much larger then the housing market.

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Originally Posted by NoOneButPaul

hahahahahahaha

Alright... keep thinking that... I work in real estate as a legal clerk and 80% of sales are from the HUD! YES THE FUCKING HUD! The HUD is the ONLY Thing keeping housing afloat (at least here in Chicago). Without it prices would die another 30-40%

Keep thinking what you want to think but I know the reality... property is nowhere near a bottom... what we're seeing now is the sheep lining back up in confidence like some kind of recovery is around the corner.

Little do they know the second they start thinking this the money velocity, which is at all time lows, would skyrocket and we would get hit with the massive inflation of the last 5 years.

Nothing has bottomed, nothing is real... everything is being propped up by an illusionary mirage of 85billion a month being printed by the fed... in 12 months that's another trillion and a 25% increase in base money supply...

Yes... things are all better... go back to sleep!

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Housing is back.

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GD, I needed that laugh today.

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Originally Posted by malkusm

Housing markets are vastly different and the degree of competition between markets is not enough to make such a homogeneous index accurate, IMO. I think there are certain characteristics which have caused certain markets to fall much more than others....namely, anywhere that people would buy second homes: beach properties, warm climates, waterfront areas that aren't more than a couple hours from metropolitan areas.

Places like New York and San Francisco, I'm not sure there's really been a huge crunch...a dip, sure, but those markets could rebound well above their previous highs. Places like my hometown, which doubled in housing units from 2000 to 2008 and still has about 40-50% of those new units for sale.....those types of markets will be hurting for another decade, at least.

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I agree. However, as this is a trend that has been underway for 9 months back-to-back, it does to to appear as though all major markets are on the way up. This data point should be considered with other data that I've posted on RPF, including the pace of home sales and consumer confidence.

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Originally Posted by John F Kennedy III

:rolleyes:

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I wish you'd contribute more to the discussion than rolled eyes and red reputation, but seeing as I know you're incapable, I do appreciate what little you have to add to the discussion.

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Originally Posted by BucksforPaul

Housing is not back and the current gain is as artificial as the housing bubble 7 years ago. It's true that current prices are not the same as 2005 but government backed low interest rate loans are still there to entice investors into buying secondary investment properties. Also, it would be wise not to ignore the millions of foreclosed and currently bank owned vacant houses that are part of the shadow inventory. These banksters will hold on to these in order to get more free money during the next bailout.

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Shadow inventory is insignificant because it is located where no one wants to live. Shadow inventory in Detroit or Las Vegas is not comparable to homes in New York, for example.

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Originally Posted by QuickZ06

GD, I needed that laugh today.

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Glad I could help. Please come back in a year so that I can laugh at you.

Shadow Inventory has been declining as well.
http://www.usnews.com/news/blogs/hom...han-3-year-low

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Nation's Shadow Inventory Falls to More Than 3-Year Low


By Meg Handley
October 9, 2012

Long blamed for nagging weakness in the housing market, the nation's shadow inventory—distressed residential properties or those somewhere in the foreclosure process—is shrinking at a decent clip according to a new report, falling to a more than three-year low in July 2012.

About 2.3 million homes were delinquent, in foreclosure, or held by mortgage servicers in July 2012, a more than 10 percent drop from numbers reported a year ago, according to CoreLogic, a financial information firm. The July data are the most recent figures available.

While this year's figures still represent $382 billion and a 6-month supply of homes sitting on the sidelines, the general trend is encouraging and another sign that the housing market is healing, albeit slowly, experts say.

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More at link.

Boomning? no. Back to Bubble sales (which would also not be desirable)? No. But improving nonetheless.

So what happens when housing runs out of all the artificial stimulus. Does anyone really think this "recovery" can be maintained by itself?

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Originally Posted by jclay2

So what happens when housing runs out of all the artificial stimulus. Does anyone really think this "recovery" can be maintained by itself?

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That was my thought. Isn't the Treasury still buying an unfathomable aoumnt of mortgage debt every month?

back? Why are 15 year mortgage becoming popular if it's coming back?

It is not , nor will be back . Just my guess, the real slides are going to start soon .....

The housing situation is fucked up in so many ways.

The next in line to be first time buyers--late-blooming Gen-Xers, Gen Y, Millenials--are financially ruined. They are five feet under in debt and their job prospects are rotten. In addition to their horrible personal finances, they have to deal with all the government, state, county, and city level debt their gluttonous boomer parents racked up.

They're also facing the braindead Fed policy of artificially inflating housing prices through rampant, irresponsible credit-based inflation. i.e. their first time price is going to be inflated a good 20% to 200% to keep the boomers whole.

Ok and after all that, the housing _inventory_ itself sucks. Why? It's all ten bedroom "luxury" McMansions that were cranked out factory style (lots of mistakes and low quality construction)! These homes will be a bitch to heat, cool, and maintain. Oh and don't forget those HOA fees!

Lastly, the interest rate is at zero percent. Great for sellers who bought at a higher rate, sure! But that interest rate, which is at 0% now, can only go up. That means when these buyers flip 5 or 10 years down the line, odds are that increased rate will eat into their selling price.

To summarize: huge amounts of debt, grossly inflated prices, interest rates that can only increase in the long run, poorly constructed and unsuitable housing stock. Just fuck it and build a yurt:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yurt