Oil and gold prices set to soar on the developing IRAN story

So it seems like the US is preparing a war with IRAN.
Needless to say that this is total insanity.
Probably it´s a giant stunt to raise the chances of Obamas reelection and to get the intention away from the economy. This is a political game that "leaders" always play once they loose support amoung the population. Maybe we won´t have a war. But the "threat" of a war will probably be held up at least until the presidential election is over.

Here is my take on that from an investing point of view:

If the rhetoric of US officials gets more aggressive over time, oil prices will explode. You think Libya caused a big rally in oil? Wait until the market discounts a war on Iran. In the past week WTI and brent already had quity a rally. Maybe some insiders knew something? Gold will soar as well.
Besides direct commodity investments and ETC´s, oil companies that are NOT engaged in the Middle East might be an interesting buy, like:
- Norwegian Statoil
- Brazilian Petrobras

hmmm

Paul should have numbers on how many trillions we would have saved if we didn't had to pay 90 $ oil but 25$ like before the war.

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Originally Posted by fatjohn

Paul should have numbers on how many trillions we would have saved if we didn't had to pay 90 $ oil but 25$ like before the war.

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He kind of said that in 2008:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dLGvybCr6AM

Brent and WTI both up more than 3% today

From what I've read, it seems as though most people realize that the government is full of crap. I've been reading these war-monger stories and a majority of the comments on all the stories I have seen have people referring to "wag the dog" and talking about how they don't believe anything the gov. says anymore, etc. I think a lot of people realize that the gov. is lying. It is pretty blatant and obvious.

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Originally Posted by Joshua2585

From what I've read, it seems as though most people realize that the government is full of crap. I've been reading these war-monger stories and a majority of the comments on all the stories I have seen have people referring to "wag the dog" and talking about how they don't believe anything the gov. says anymore, etc. I think a lot of people realize that the gov. is lying. It is pretty blatant and obvious.

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Certainly a lot of people are waking up. But sadly the majority is still totally clueless. I´ve seen Biden talking about "all options beeing considered" etc. The US gov. is preparing a war, I´m sure :( The msm is doing the cheerleading

I have a feeling this is their last huhrah.

What if one day the truth can't be stopped and a bunch of people start going to jail? I'm talking about thousands all across the world including the Bushes. And maybe they are even scared.

The oil industry profits from this. Who here thinks there isn't non-carbon based energy our government and these tyrants have been suppressing(and actually using for themselves)? I'm not talking about wind or solar but technology that was Rediscovered by Tesla based on electromagnetism.

New age of truth is about to dawn - mark my words.

So the story continues, from our friends at zerohedge:

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Fears Of Iran Nuclear Weaponizing Lead To Brent Break Out
What is today's most underreported news of the day, and the reason Brent is breaking out, is that according to WaPo, IAEA is about to report that Iran is on the verge of becoming a nuclear state: needless to say this is just the green light all of its enemies need to launch a pre-emptive strike (not to mention, GDP-boosting). Below is some must read commentary from Emad Mostaque of Religare Capital Markets on what this IAEA finding will mean for the region, for the world and for what really matters: capital markets.
The IAEA report on Iranian weaponization is due to come out earlier than expected on Nov 9th. We maintain our belief that this report is likely to state that Iran close to becoming a full nuclear power and we look at the near term implications in this note.
Nothing new: The report is unlikely to contain much new information, but rather to “connect-the-dots” in line with increasing US/Israeli influence over the IAEA. It is very difficult to prove weaponization absent a mushroom cloud.
Breaking out: We believe that Iran does not intend to create nuclear weapons but are looking to reach “breakout” potential to act as a deterrent. We believe this is 6-12 months away, shifting the balance of power significantly. Iran will continue with its program regardless of international sanctions or pressure.
Oil support, sanctions and attacks: Oil should get more support and take the Brent-WTI spread back toward $20 given the broken nature of that market. The first move may be to sanction the Central Bank of Iran, cutting oil exports and dividend repatriation (negative for MTN and the like). Russia and China will push back on this toward the end of the month, increasing the probability of an attack on Iranian nuclear facilities late November/December, which we upgraded to 40% a month ago.
Full report:
http://www.scribd.com/doc/71934299/M...gy-Iran-So-Far

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http://www.zerohedge.com/news/fears-...rent-break-out

Zerohedge reports that US aircraft carrier CVN 77 George H.W. Bush just arrived at the shores of Syria.
If the US attacks Syria, Iran will be pushed to do something.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/aircra...ry-immediately
http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/defau...-23-11_800.jpg

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Originally Posted by swissaustrian

Zerohedge reports that US aircraft carrier CVN 77 George H.W. Bush just arrived at the shores of Syria.
If the US attacks Syria, Iran will be pushed to do something.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/aircra...ry-immediately
http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/defau...-23-11_800.jpg

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The George HW Bush is passing through the Mediteranian on its way back to the US after its first official deployment. Story from two days ago (Nov 22, 2011):
http://www.wvec.com/news/military/US...134312293.html

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USS George H.W. Bush Strike Group to return home

WVEC.com

Posted on November 22, 2011 at 7:44 AM

NORFOLK -- The USS George H.W. Bush Carrier Strike Group is beginning its journey home.

The group deployed in May, and according to the Virginian Pilot, they're winding down their mission in the Mediterranean Sea to return to Norfolk.

No specific homecoming date has been announced.

This is the aircraft carrier's maiden deployment.

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It was near the Strait of Hormuz which would become a flash point should there be a conflict with Iran- they would try to shut it down which would have a major negative economic impact on the world- particularly the US since 40% of the world's oil passes thorugh there every day. If we were thinking about something which would involve Iran, we would want to keep forces in that area- instead the USS Bush is going home.

*Note to self

Buy more Canadian oil tomorrow

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Originally Posted by Zippyjuan

It was near the Strait of Hormuz which would become a flash point should there be a conflict with Iran- they would try to shut it down which would have a major negative economic impact on the world- particularly the US since 40% of the world's oil passes thorugh there every day. If we were thinking about something which would involve Iran, we would want to keep forces in that area- instead the USS Bush is going home.

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Seems like zerohedge missed that information. Thanks + rep.
ZH thought USS GWB would reach the shores of Syria to attack them, though. After rethinking it, I come to the conclusion that Iran (as well as Syria) could be attacked by aircrafts stationed in Iraq, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Pakistan, and Afghanistan anyway:
http://euro-med.dk/billeder/billeder...ncircled21.gif

The UK embassy in Teheran is beeing occupied by Iranian students. They have taken 8 hostages. One building is burning:
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/iran-u...n-contra-redux
Brent is up 1.25% on the news

Iran police secures release of UK embassy hostages
http://in.reuters.com/article/2011/1...60788820111129

Pimco´s take on oil and Iran:

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Playing ‘What If?’ with Oil Prices and a Potential Strike on Iranian Nuclear Facilities
•​The market has less “cushion” than it did earlier this year due to significant production outages and relatively strong non-OECD demand, leading to sharp draws on inventories.
•Excess capacity is virtually exhausted and we doubt other OPEC nations would be able to compensate for a reduction in Iranian oil production.
•In light of these possible oil price spikes, investors should evaluate how their portfolios might be affected by a sudden or sharp burst of inflation.

...

Below we outline four hypothetical scenarios for output and prices that could materialize if Israel attacks Iran’s nuclear sites. Again, we emphasize that we are not predicting the likelihood of Israel’s action or inaction in any way.

•Scenario 1: Exports minimally effected. Concerns would drive initial price response. IEA would likely make statements about willingness to meet any shortfall in supplies. Oil could spike initially to $130 to $140 per barrel and then settle in a higher range, around $120 to $125, in relatively short order as a premium (mostly a risk premium) becomes embedding into the market, at least for a while. The timing of the spike would depend on how much the market is taken by surprise and whether or not the strike is priced in ahead of time.
•Scenario 2: Iranian exports cut off for one month. IEA would likely swing into action and Saudi Arabia could begin to offer more oil into market. In this case, we would expect prices could reach previous all-time highs of $145/bbl or even higher depending on issues with shipping. The IEA and Saudi Arabia can meet market needs, but the increase in uncertainty and the loss of spare capacity would affect pricing. In this case, after a few months, we would expect prices could fall back to $130 to $135/bbl range.
•Scenario 3: Iranian exports are lost for half a year. This is where the potential outcomes get quite dicey. We think oil prices could probably rally and average $150 for the six months, with notable spikes above that level. The IEA would likely release oil steadily, but consumption will need to take a hit from prices and slower economic activity. Once Iranian crude oil returns to the market and the environment stabilizes, oil would likely return to around $110/bbl or even lower depending on global strength at the time.
•Scenario 4: Greater loss of production from around the region, either through subsequent Iranian response or due to lack of ability to move oil through Straits of Hormuz. This is the Armageddon scenario in which oil prices could soar, significantly constraining global growth. Forecasting prices in the prior scenarios is dangerous enough. So, we won’t even begin to forecast a cap or target price in this final Doomsday scenario.

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http://www.pimco.com/EN/Insights/Pag...cilities-.aspx

There has been speculation that the US or Israel was on the verge of attacking Iran for years now. I don't see any provocation big enough to cause this- even the attack on the Embassay.

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Originally Posted by Zippyjuan

There has been speculation that the US or Israel was on the verge of attacking Iran for years now. I don't see any provocation big enough to cause this- even the attack on the Embassay.

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The provocation will likely be a flase flag - as (nearly) always.
Netanyahu and Obama are both desperately searching for ways to get reelected.
Obama´s top foreign policy advisor, neo-colonialist Zbigniew Brzezinski, has had a wet dream about a false flag to trigger an Iran war for a long time:
From a Senate hearing in 2007

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Only a political strategy that is historically relevant rather than reminiscent of colonial tutelage can provide the needed framework for a tolerable resolution of both the war in Iraq and the intensifying regional tensions.
If the United States continues to be bogged down in a protracted bloody involvement in Iraq, the final destination on this downhill track is likely to be a head-on conflict with Iran and with much of the world of Islam at large. A plausible scenario for a military collision with Iran involves Iraqi failure to meet the benchmarks; followed by accusations of Iranian responsibility for the failure; then by some provocation in Iraq or a terrorist act in the U.S. blamed on Iran; culminating in a “defensive” U.S. military action against Iran that plunges a lonely America into a spreading and deepening quagmire eventually ranging across Iraq, Iran, Afghanistan, and Pakistan.

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http://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/HL0702/S00079.htm

Obama would lose if the US attacked Iran. The US citizens are tired of the two wars in Iraq and Afghanistan. A war with Iran would also badly hurt the US economy- the major issue for many voters. If the economy gets worse, it is nearly guaranteed that he will be voted out. How would war with Iran make the economy worse? Oil. 40% of all the oil in the world passess through the Straits of Hormuz. This narrow passage is at the tip of Iran and should a conflict arise, it would be quite easy for them to either significanly reduce or even close off tanker traffic through there. That would cause a major spike in oil prices which would in turn have a very negative impact on the US economy. These reasons are why a US war with Iran would be bad news for Obama if he wanted to stay in office and for me are major reasons he would not want to get involved in one.

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Originally Posted by Zippyjuan

Obama would lose if the US attacked Iran. The US citizens are tired of the two wars in Iraq and Afghanistan. A war with Iran would also badly hurt the US economy- the major issue for many voters. If the economy gets worse, it is nearly guaranteed that he will be voted out. How would war with Iran make the economy worse? Oil. 40% of all the oil in the world passess through the Straits of Hormuz. This narrow passage is at the tip of Iran and should a conflict arise, it would be quite easy for them to either significanly reduce or even close off tanker traffic through there. That would cause a major spike in oil prices which would in turn have a very negative impact on the US economy. These reasons are why a US war with Iran would be bad news for Obama if he wanted to stay in office and for me are major reasons he would not want to get involved in one.

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I think it depends on the reason for war.
Lets say we see an "attack" on Israel. Israel retaliates. The zionist lobby in the US goes wild. US msm cheers. What will the average voter think? Rally behind the "leader".
I don´t expect a large scale war with ground troops etc. But an airstrike against "strategic targets" (i.e. nuclear facilties etc.) doesn´t seem to be totally improbable imho.
With regards to the topic of this thread: As I emphasized in the op: In order for oil and gold prices to spike, this doesn´t necessarily require a war. Even some hawkish rhetoric and events like the one today make prices go up (temporarily). The (imaginary) threat of Iran is already beeing used in the presidential race and it will be an issue until the election is over. Obama could easily use this issue, claiming to be a "peacekeeper" (like in Libya). He can´t win on the economy. What´s left for him to win? Either an extremely vulnerable oponent (like Gingrich) or to make foreign policy a dominating election issue.

Even a "limited" attack would spike oil prices and hurt the economy.

Iran is more than twice the size of Iraq and is better armed. I agree that we would not really be able to invade it with ground troops.

Iran is not likely to attack Israel. That would not gain them anything- so there would be no reason for us to "retaliate" for an attack in Israel. Iran does not have a history of attacking any other countries.

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Originally Posted by Zippyjuan

Even a "limited" attack would spike oil prices and hurt the economy.

Iran is more than twice the size of Iraq and is better armed. I agree that we would not really be able to invade it with ground troops.

Iran is not likely to attack Israel. That would not gain them anything- so there would be no reason for us to "retaliate" for an attack in Israel. Iran does not have a history of attacking any other countries.

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I put "attack" in quotation marks meaning a false flag. It wouldn´t be the first time that the Mossad does such things. I don´t expect Iran to launch a real attack either.

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EU May Place Oil Embargo on Iran
The unfavorable IAEA report indicating Iran was developing nuclear weapons was culminated by Tuesday’s ransacking of the British embassy in Teheran. The EU FMs will discuss intensification of the economic sanctions on Iran, including a possible oil embargo. France and Holland have recalled their ambassadors to Iran for consultations. Norway has closed its embassy in Iran, and Sweden has summoned the Iranian ambassador in Stockholm for consultation. Italy is considering a similar move.

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http://www.israelnationalnews.com/Ne...sh.aspx/225962

Stupid EU. The Iranians will just sell their oil to the Chinese instead.

I think it is a huge over-reaction by Europe to the situation.

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Originally Posted by Zippyjuan

I think it is a huge over-reaction by Europe to the situation.

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and they´re only hurting themselves by cutting off some of their oil supply. Iran will find other buyers at higher prices thanks to the embargo which will cause a fear premium.

I heard Lindsay Williams in September of 2010 on the Alex Jones show saying an Iran war would occur soon (end of 2010 sometime was his insider told him). He apparently was in talks with a globalist in the know who was dying of cancer up in Alaska. And as we know, there are always behind the scenes crap that goes on with the globalists that can put their agenda on hold. These people work in 25 year increments.

War with Iran is gonna happen and my fear is WWIII. It's all about rallying around the President for his re-election. Remember Biden saying that something was going to happen in the first six months of Obama's presidency that would test him? I thought Israel attacking Iran was it. Maybe that time is around the corner and things are in place now.

Lindsay Williams says a lot of things. He also said that John McCain would be president and that the entire Middle East would be bankrupt by 2010. He also said he would be killed if he kept talking about things. And he is still talking.

Press TV, the Iranian propaganda mouth piece reports:

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Iran military downs US spy drone
A senior Iranian military official says Iran's Army has downed a remote-controlled reconnaissance drone operated by the US military in the eastern part of the country.
The informed source said on Sunday that Iran Army's electronic warfare unit successfully targeted the American-built RQ-170 Sentinel stealth aircraft after it crossed into Iranian airspace over the border with neighboring Afghanistan.
He added that the US reconnaissance drone has been seized with minimum damage.
The RQ-170 is a stealth unmanned aircraft designed and developed by Lockheed Martin Company.
The US military and the CIA use the drone to launch missile strikes in Afghanistan and in Pakistan's northwestern tribal region.
The unnamed Iranian military official further added that “due to the clear border violation, the operational and electronic measures taken by the Islamic Republic of Iran's Armed Forces against invading aircraft will not remain limited to the Iran's borders."
The report comes as the United States has beefed up its military presence in and around the Persian Gulf region in recent months in the wake of popular uprising in Bahrain.
The US Department of Defense says Washington is closely monitoring the developments in Bahrain, which is the headquarters of the US Navy's Fifth Fleet and holds some 4,200 US service members.

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http://www.presstv.ir/detail/213765.html

WTI at $ 102 (black), brent at $ 111 (orange) and rising:
http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/defau...111205_Oil.png

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LONDON, Dec 5 (Reuters) - Oil prices rose on Monday with Brent crude futures up near $111, extending last week's gains as rising tensions between Iran and the West increased the risk of disruption to crude shipments by the world's fifth-largest oil exporter.
Iran warned on Sunday that any move to block its oil exports would more than double crude prices with devastating consequences for a fragile global economy.
Brent crude was up $1.14 at $111.08 a barrel by 1313 GMT, after last week posting a gain of more than 3 percent, its best weekly gain since mid-October. Earlier Brent had pushed to an intraday high of $111.22 a barrel.
U.S. crude was up 81 cents to $101.77 a barrel, having posted a gain of 4.3 percent last week.
Christopher Bellew, an oil trader with Jefferies Bache in London, said that worries about Iran and Syria were helping to buoy oil prices. "If Iranian exports were suspended that would be very significant as the market is tight already," he said.The European Union is considering a ban - already in place in the United States - on Iranian oil imports. The storming of the British Embassy in Tehran last week has opened the door for tougher action against Iran which is thought to be working on a nuclear bomb.
"The risk of disruptions to oil supplies remains high," said Christophe Barret, global oil analyst at Credit Agricole CIB. An embargo on Iranian oil "would introduce severe disruption to refining in several EU countries" he said.Barret added that speculation about possible military strikes on Iranian nuclear sites have helped to increase the risk premium on oil prices.
But on Friday, U.S. Defense Secretary Leon Panetta made one of his most extensive arguments to date against any imminent military action against Iran over its nuclear programme, saying he was convinced sanctions and diplomatic pressure were working.
Israel has called a nuclear-armed Iran a threat. Iran says it is enriching uranium for peaceful purposes.
In Syria, EU sanctions are already biting with Royal Dutch Shell shutting down its activities there.
On Monday, Gulfsands Petroleum said it was reviewing the impact of the latest EU sanctions against Syria on its production activities and its contracts with the Syrian government and the General Petroleum Corporation (GPC).
"Syria was exporting about 400,000 barrels per day at the start of the year and it is probably exporting nothing at the moment," said Bellew.
Oil ministers from OPEC members Kuwait, Oman and Bahrain said that the market was well supplied, echoing similar comments by Qatar's energy minister and the OPEC Secretary-General Abdullah al-Badri at the weekend.
OPEC will meet next week in Vienna, but with Iran holding the presidency of the OPEC conference until the end of the year, analysts do not expect much from the meeting. Iran is OPEC's second-largest producer.
EUROZONE HOPES
The oil market is also eyeing developments in the eurozone which reach a critical phase this week as European leaders work towards a rescue plan to be unveiled at a crucial summit in Brussels on Friday.
"There will be a lot of volatility this week with all the European news," said Barret. "Prices can be expected to move significantly throughout - it's a big week for Europe."
The Chinese economy showed further signs of slowing, raising hopes that the central bank would take more action to support growth in the world's second largest oil consumer.
The HSBC Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for China's services sector fell to 52.5 from 54.1 in November, marking its slowest rate of growth in three months. (Additional reporting by Francis Kan in Singapore; editing by William Hardy)

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http://af.reuters.com/article/energy...nnel=0&sp=true

Once again, Brent crude is the major outperformer today.