How Ron Paul Wins the Nomination (full nomination schedule, delegate #'s, and analysis)
I had to spend quite a while typing just the delegate info out into a forum-friendly format from information available. But it is extremely interesting and sheds a light on how we could win the nomination. We have to be working hard towards this goal, because looking at these numbers, it's hard to say it isn't possible.
Below the delegate information is some analysis of how things could pan out if we play our cards right. It's just a prediction, and a few scenarios to be mindful of. Remember, we are in this thing to win.
Primary Schedule and Delegates
Rules affecting delegates:
Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina, and Nevada may begin their delegate selection primaries, caucuses, and conventions on Wednesday 1 February 2012. All other jurisdictions may begin their processes on the Tuesday 6 March 2012. Violating this directive results in 50% of the delegates to the national convention being stripped. Iowa's, Colorado's, Washington's, Minnesota's, and Maine's delegates are not tied to their caucus dates, so these states including Iowa will not suffer a 50% penalty despite holding caucuses before said dates.
ALL nominating states allocating delegates based on statewide vote prior to April 1, 2012 must allocate delegates PROPORTIONALLY.
DELEGATE TOTALS INCLUDES EFFECTS OF THE PENALTY
CAUCUS STATES ARE DENOTED AS SUCH
TOTAL DELEGATES AFTER PENALTIES: 2,287
PLEDGED DELEGATES: 1,784
UNPLEDGED DELEGATES: 503
DATE -------- STATE ---------- DELEGATES ----- # PLEDGED/UNPLEDGED
Jan 3 -------------- Iowa ---------- 28 delegates (caucus) -------- 28/0
Jan 10 --- New Hampshire ------ 12 delegates ------------------- 12/0
Jan 21 --- South Carolina -------- 25 delegates ------------------- 25/0
Jan 31 --------- Florida ------------ 50 delegates ------------------- 50/0
Late Jan ---- Louisiana ------------ 46 delegates ------------------ 18/28*
Feb 4 ---------- Nevada ----------- 28 delegates (caucus) --------- 25/3
Feb 4-11 ------ Maine ------------- 24 delegates (caucus) --------- 0/24
Feb 7 ---------- Colorado ---------- 36 delegates (caucus) --------- 36/0
Feb 7 ---------- Minnesota --------- 40 delegates (caucus) --------- 0/40
Feb 28 --------- Michigan ----------- 30 delegates ------------------- 30/0
Feb 28 --------- Arizona ------------ 29 delegates -------------------- 29/0
Mar 3 -------Washington ----------- 43 delegates (caucus) --------- 23/20
Mar 6 ------- Alaska ---------------- 27 delegates (caucus) --------- 24/3
Mar 6 ------- Georgia --------------- 76 delegates -------------------- 76/0
Mar 6 -------- Idaho ----------------- 32 delegates (caucus) --------- 32/0
Mar 6 -------Massachusetts -------- 41 delegates -------------------- 38/3
Mar 6 ------- North Dakota -------- 28 delegates (caucus) --------- 0/28
Mar 6 --------- Ohio ---------------- 66 delegates ---------------------- 0/66
Mar 6 -------Oklahoma ------------ 43 delegates --------------------- 40/3
Mar 6 ------- Tennessee ------------ 58 delegates --------------------- 55/3
Mar 6 ------- Vermont ------------- 17 delegates ---------------------- 17/0
Mar 6 -------- Virginia ------------- 50 delegates ---------------------- 50/0
Mar 6-10 ----- Wyoming ---------- 29 delegates (caucus) ----------- 0/29
Mar 10 --------- Kansas ----------- 40 delegates (caucus) ------------ 40/0
Mar 10 --- U.S. Virgin Islands --- 9 delegates (caucus) ------------- 6/3
Mar 13 ------- Alabama ----------- 50 delegates ----------------------- 47/3
Mar 13 ------- Hawaii ------------- 20 delegates (caucus) ------------ 17/3
Mar 13 ----- Mississippi ---------- 39 delegates ----------------------- 36/3
Mar 17 ------- Missouri ----------- 52 delegates (caucus) ------------ 49/3
Mar 20 ------- Illinois ------------- 69 delegates ----------------------- 56/13
Apr 3 ---------- Maryland --------- 37 delegates ----------------------- 37/0
Apr 3 ------- Texas ----------------- 155 delegates -------------------- 152/3
Apr 3 ------ Washington, D.C. --- 19 delegates ----------------------- 16/3
Apr 3 -------- Wisconsin ---------- 42 delegates ----------------------- 42/0
Apr 24 ------- Connecticut -------- 28 delegates ----------------------- 25/3
Apr 24 ------- Delaware ----------- 17 delegates ----------------------- 17/0
Apr 24 ------- New York ----------- 95 delegates ---------------------- 81/14
Apr 24 ------- Pennsylvania ------- 72 delegates ---------------------- 0/72
Apr 24 ------- Rhode Island ------- 19 delegates ---------------------- 16/3
May 8 -------- Indiana -------------- 46 delegates ---------------------- 27/19
May 8 ------ North Carolina ------- 55 delegates ---------------------- 55/0
May 8 ------- West Virginia -------- 31 delegates ---------------------- 28/3
May 15 -------- Nebraska ----------- 35 delegates ---------------------- 32/3
May 15 -------- Oregon ------------- 29 delegates ---------------------- 26/3
May 22 --------- Arkansas ---------- 36 delegates ---------------------- 33/3
May 22 --------- Kentucky ---------- 45 delegates --------------------- 42/3
June 5 ----------- California --------- 172 delegates -------------------- 169/3
June 5 ----------- Montana ----------- 26 delegates ---------------------- 0/26
June 5 ----------- New Jersey -------- 50 delegates ---------------------- 50/0
June 5 --------- South Dakota ------- 28 delegates ---------------------- 25/3
June 26 ----------- Utah --------------- 40 delegates --------------------- 40/0
TO BE ANNOUNCED:
American Samoa --------------- 9 delegates
Guam ---------------------------- 9 delegates
Northern Mariana Islands ----- 9 delegates
Puerto Rico --------------------- 23 delegates
Notes:
* Louisiana has a somewhat confusing Caucus-then-Primary process to select delegates, the caucus being some as-yet-announced time in late January and the primary being on March 24. Unpledged delegates may be allocated to a candidate on the basis of the primary vote if the candidate receive more than 25% of the vote in the primary on Mar. 24, otherwise they are unpledged. (Republican Party of Louisiana, State Convention Rule 20b)
EDITED 12/22: Texas and Ohio Primary Date Changes Included
Open Primaries/Caucuses
(Where Independents and Democrats Can Vote)
Open primaries and caucuses offer us the best opportunity to take advantage of Ron Paul's popularity with independent voters. Below is the list of open primaries and caucuses, to be updated as necessary.
Alabama
Arkansas
Georgia
Hawaii (caucus)
Idaho (caucus)
Indiana
Iowa* (caucus)
Massachusetts**
Michigan
Minnesota (caucus)
Mississippi
Missouri (caucus)
New Hampshire
North Dakota (caucus)
Ohio***
South Carolina
Tennessee
Texas
Vermont
Virginia
Washington (caucus)
Wisconsin
*Iowa caucus open to anyone who wants to register Republican at the caucus location
**Massachusetts primary open to unaffiliated voters, not Democrats
***Ohio primary allows voter to change registration at the polling place by completing a statement confirming the change in his/her political party affiliation (source)
18 Key States for Ron Paul Getting Delegates
Along with some predictions of how we might realistically be able to fare. I am not excluding Nevada or Iowa because they are not important. But in terms of delegate counts, they won't hold a candle to many others. Iowa and Nevada will have already occurred, and for any of the following to be relevant, we have to do fairly well in the earliest states. That isn't what this analysis is fundamentally about. We all know that to win the nomination, we have to do well in January.
Maine - Caucus state. At this point in the process, early February, you'd expect there to be no more than three candidates. Ron Paul, Mitt Romney, and someone else. Given that, it is reasonable to expect that Ron Paul would be able to win a high percentage (perhaps as high as 50%+) in the low-turnout Maine caucus. But it gets more interesting. ALL of the 24 Maine delegates are UNPLEDGED. Therefore, if Ron Paul supporters are well organized, we might get even more than that – perhaps a solid majority of these delegates. At this early point, we could expect perhaps 12 delegates out of Maine.
Colorado - Caucus state. Although all delegates here are pledged, there are 36 of them. Even if we only get 33%, that is 12 delegates. But again, the caucus format is good for us. We can perhaps hope for as many as half, or 18.
Minnesota - Caucus state, 40 delegates and all of them UNPLEDGED. This state is critical, and that's doubtless why the Ron Paul campaign set up an office there. If good organization exists, we could reap the benefits of this poorly-attended caucus. We might get as many as 30 delegates out of here. Huge state, the most important for us before Super Tuesday
Washington - Caucus state. 43 delegates, 20 unpledged. That means that we can expect to do very well anyway, in addition to the added bonus of organization turning out some extra numbers of unpledged delegates through the party process. Let's say 25 delegates from here.
Alaska - Low turnout caucus state, on Super Tuesday. Critical win if we are getting the nomination. 27 delegates, 24 pledged, and we can feel confident to win most of them. Let's say 15 delegates here.
Georgia - Super Tuesday Primary, 76 pledged delegates. Unlikely we would win here, especially if either Newt or Cain is still in it (both from Georgia). But in a three way race, we might get 15 delegates.
Idaho - Caucus state, Super Tuesday, 32 pledged delegates. Same assumptions apply... we should be able to pull off half. 16 delegates at minimum.
North Dakota - Caucus state, Super Tuesday, 28 UNPLEDGED delegates. Another important state for us. We can hope to get a large number of delegates via strong organization, perhaps as many as 20.
Texas - Second biggest state, primary. Mitt unpopular here. Depending on who is left, Ron could do well. Regardless, this is an important state. Almost all delegates are pledged of the 155 total. We ought to be able to get 50 delegates.
Wyoming - Caucus state, all 29 unpledged, right after Super Tuesday. We could pull off 20 delegates here.
Kansas - Caucus state, 40 pledged delegates. We could get half, 20 delegates.
Missouri - Biggest caucus state, Mar 17. 52 delegates. At this point in the process, if there are still 3 candidates, we should be able to get around half of the delegates, 26.
Illinois - Primary state, Mar. 20. 56 pledged plus 13 unpledged. If we can get a majority of the unpledged, and do decently well in the primary, we could leave with at least 20 delegates.
Louisiana - Caucus-then-primary state, caucus being in late January, primary Mar 24. 46 delegates, 28 unpledged. Strong organization could yield a majority of the unpledged, in addition to whatever showing in the primary. Louisiana has complicated rules for delegate allocation which can be seen in the footnote below the delegate schedule. However, one would expect our strong organization to pull off a good showing overall. We should hope for 25 here.
New York - Primary state, Apr. 24, which is the second big primary day on the schedule. 81 pledged plus 14 unpledged. A decent showing and good organization might get us as many as 35 delegates. A realistic scenario for that would be to get 31% of the primary vote (25 delegates) and 10 of the 14 unpledged.
Pennsylvania - Primary, Apr. 24. Believe it or not, Pennsylvania could end up being a top priority as the nomination wears on. That's because although this is a primary state, ALL 72 of its delegates are UNPLEDGED. With strong organization, we might get as many as half of them, or even more. Let's say 36 delegates.
California - Primary, June 5. If we are going to win this thing, it will come down to the wire. California has 172 delegates, almost all of which are pledged. But we may show well here. Regardless, we can at least expect 50 delegates, whether it is a two or a three man race at this point.
Ohio - Primary, Mar 6. All 66 delegates are unpledged, making this a top organizational priority if we are going to win. With strong organization, we could win at least half through the process, so let's say 33.
Remember the delegate totals:
TOTAL DELEGATES AFTER PENALTIES: 2,287
PLEDGED DELEGATES: 1,784
UNPLEDGED DELEGATES: 503
NEEDED TO WIN THE NOMINATION: 1,144
The 18 States that add up
If Ron Paul were to do as well as I posit in these 18 key states, a realistic scenario if the campaign goes fairly well, then he picks up 466 delegates, or 40.7% of the total he needs to win the nomination. That may seem like a ridiculous figure, but it actually isn't: given our strong organizational and hard support base advantages, it is realistic if the nomination is going fairly well. It doesn't by any means assume that we are dominating. Actually, this scenario only gives Ron Paul 42.3% of the delegates from these 18 states. Given the strengths of the organization and support, I think that's wholly realistic.
Given these 18 states: Ron Paul has 466 delegates
In order to win the nomination, Ron Paul then needs 678 more delegates. Where do they come from?
The Other Primaries
There are 1,185 delegates left in the pool of delegates. 678 is a staggering 61.5% of that figure. It is extremely unlikely that Ron Paul will do that well in the remaining states, almost all of which are primaries. How well might he do?
If we give Ron Paul an average 30% of the vote, which is very realistic for these primary states in a three way race and certainly modest in a two-way race, then he picks up 355 additional delegates. A wild card is how delegates are allocated, which isn't by any means decided. But for the purposes of analysis here, it is reasonable to assume they are allocated proportionally (and a number of them are). Even if it is winner-take-all, the assumption is not unrealistic, because you would figure that with around 30% of the primary votes Ron Paul would be winning some of those states, even if not many.
Given 30% of the vote in the other contests: Ron Paul then has 821 delegates
That total still leaves us 323 delegates short. Where will those delegates come from?
One could certainly say, "well, we just do better than what you are saying we will do." Okay, that's one scenario. It is certainly possible that in the caucus states, we could do better. But what if we don't? Remember, I'm assuming that Ron is only able to compete in most of these states, but by no means to win. I'm assuming that caucus states are our best bet and that even there, we aren't completely dominating. This is not intended to be an "unrealistic" scenario by any means.
The Remaining Delegates
The remaining delegates will come from other candidates that drop out of the race. This is because when a candidate has won pledged delegates, those candidates become unpledged and free to vote for whomever they choose at the convention after their candidate drops out and releases them. That candidate may not officially release his or her delegates until the convention, or it may be the moment they drop out. But most likely, unless the candidate held a very large number of delegates that could prevail in a brokered convention (more on that in a moment), they will release their delegates.
My assumptions to this point have been that this will be a three-way-race after South Carolina headed to Super Tuesday, and that after that, possibly only a two-way race between Ron Paul and some frontrunner X. It may in fact be that the three-way race goes all the way through the nomination battle to the convention, or that it goes through the April 24 primaries. Let's take a look at three possible scenarios.
NOTE: Each of these scenarios assumes that there are at least 4 candidates through to the Florida primary. I think that is very realistic. NONE of these scenarios do not work if you replace "third candidate x" with "third and fourth candidates" because a 3rd and fourth candidate could easily take the same number of delegates and then release them as I assume a third to.
Scenario 1: Three Way Race Through Super Tuesday
If a three way race persists through Super Tuesday, then by its very nature you would expect a third candidate to take around a third of the votes. Perhaps less, perhaps more. I think it is entirely reasonable that this would be the case, however, given that through Florida, you will have more than three candidates and in the case of Super Tuesday, a likely third candidate would have a serious shot of winning Georgia over Romney and Paul (Cain or Gingrich).
The primaries/caucuses from Jan 3 to Mar 6 have a total of 842 delegates. When looking at the 18 states, we gave Ron Paul only 201 of the 846 delegates in these states, because we didn't include all of the states and the ones we did, we assumed as realistically as possible.
If a third candidate/other candidates who drop out before Super Tuesday can be assigned 30% of the total delegates from these states, which is realistic, then we can say those other candidates have 253 delegates. That is not enough for Ron Paul to win the nomination, even if most of the unpledged delegates who had worked through the process were Ron Paul supporters. Giving Ron Paul a realistic half of these newly unpledged delegates only gets him to 127. Adding that to the aforementioned total of 821, and we are at 948, still 196 short of the 1,144 we need.
HOWEVER. If, at that point, the third candidate were to drop out, as this scenario implies, then we would likely fare better than 30% in the remaining states. The "key 18" of the remaining states only gave Ron Paul 265 delegates out of their total of 641, but that is out of the rest of the entirety of the states remaining, which is out of a total of 1445.
Therefore, 1445-641 = 804 delegates up for grabs in those remaining contests not spelled out in the "key 18" analysis.
We previously gave Ron Paul 30% of that total, which equates to 241 delegates out of the 804.
What happens if Ron Paul is able to garner 40% of the total? In that case, he wins an additional 80 delegates, putting him at a total delegate count of 1028. But that's still short of 1,144.
What if he garners half? Then he gains another 160 delegates, a total of 402 out of the 804, and is at 1,108. STILL short of 1,144. In order for Ron Paul to win under this scenario, given our 18-state predictions and the reality of the race, he would need to get another 196 delegates, or a total of 54.4% of the delegates remaining.
I do not see that as likely against Romney. Therefore, we have to bet that under this scenario of a three-way-race through Super Tuesday, Ron Paul would need to do fairly well in the remaining primaries (around 40% of the primaries, at least) and have a larger number of the unpledged released delegates.
Scenario 2: Three Way Race Through Apr. 24
The next big primary date after Super Tuesday is April 24. it includes New York and Pennsylvania, among others. What happens if there is a three-way race through then? There are only 709 delegates left after April 24, so this is about two-thirds of the way through.
If the third candidate (plus others) are again assumed to get 30% of the states through April 24, then that is out of 1578 delegates = 473 delegates. Hey, now we're talking serious numbers.
For the primaries through April 24, we assumed Ron Paul would get in the 18 key states covered up until then (that is, every key state but California and Ohio, both of which vote later) 383 delegates out of 864 total delegates in those states.
We also assumed 30% of the vote in the other states, which are composed of 714 delegates (1578-864key=714), so through April 24 we assume Ron Paul has 214 from those states.
If the third candidate drops out after Apr. 24, given organizational effort to achieve half their unpledged delegates, that is 237 delegates. Adding that to our previous figure derived from all the primaries of 821, we get 1058. Much closer than before.
If Ron Paul outperforms in the remaining states, and gets a few more unpledged delegates, or performs better in the previous contests, it becomes more reasonable to say he gets to 1144 without a hitch. Because at that point, we are only 86 short.
Scenario 3: Brokered Convention
This one is tough. That is because it is hard to say whose delegates would go where.
A brokered convention means that we would have at least two candidates go into the convention with sizable pluralities but neither a majority, or perhaps three candidates do very well and have large numbers.
We could assume that if it were three candidates, it might be Ron Paul, Mitt Romney, and either Gingrich or Cain or Perry. If Ron Paul does as well as we assumed him to do, he has 821 delegates through the process itself, with 30% of the vote in non-key-delegate states and 466 delegates from the others.
If Ron Paul goes into the convention with 821, or 35.9% of the delegates,
and Mitt Romney goes in with 880, or 38.4% of the delegates,
and Third Candidate (Perry/Cain/Romney) plus the others go in with 586, or 25.6% of the delegates,
then it really starts to get interesting. Remember, you need 1,144 to win.
At that point, someone has to give. Sometime or another. Several interesting things could occur, none of which could be easily predicted, and not all of which are positive. However, such is the nature of a brokered convention: it's dirty.
1. Third Candidate drops out, Ron Paul picks up a 323 of the released delegates, and wins.
2. Third Candidate drops out, Romney picks up 264 of the released delegates, and wins.
3. Romney drops out, Third candidate picks up vast majority of Romney's delegates plus other candidates'.
4. Romney drops out, Ron Paul picks up some of Romney's delegates (323 only, remember) plus others' and wins.
5. Balloting goes on and on until state party rules either release delegates or delegates change their minds and their votes. In this case, all hell breaks loose, but this is where organization really benefits Ron Paul. Because in reality, a number of "Romney delegates" can be Paul supporters who got through the process. Once their state rules release them at the national convention, they could vote for Ron Paul. However, if they are bound to vote for Romney, their votes go to him regardless.
Conclusion
Of course, none of this is set in stone. These numbers could end up being way off, and I hope Ron Paul does much better than these predictions.
However, I hope you'll take a few things away from this.
1. It is possible for Ron Paul to win given delegate numbers alone.
2. It is going to be hard for Ron Paul to win.
3. We have to do everything in our power to get this man elected, because he is the most liberty-minded candidate with a real chance of getting elected who has ever stood for election to the office of president in modern times. It is, indeed, possible. But only if we work for it.
Hopefully these numbers give you an idea of the daunting task we face, but a bit of optimism that with the right organization and amount of work, that it could be done.
Phew.
