Writing-in Ron Paul to Win in Iowa, NH, Maine: The Numbers Are There

As the new launch WriteInRon2012.com reports:

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In Iowa, 2008, Paul had 11,800-plus votes—or about 10% of the vote—while in 2012 he had over 26,000 votes, a 121% increase. In contrast, interest in Romney in this state collapsed over the same period, with a -0% increase, from 30,021 to 30,015 votes. In New Hampshire Paul’s rise was even more dramatic, going from only about 8% in 2008 to nearly 23% in 2012, a 210% rise, while Romney’s rise was a mere 29%. Maine was so corrupted by rigging that the numbers aren’t completed, but the rise for Paul was meteoric.

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Jared Glenn in LewRockwell.com observes "How the GOP Establishment Stole the Nomination From Ron Paul":

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Days before the caucuses, Paul held a commanding lead in the polls and all the momentum, with every other candidate having peaked from favorable media coverage and then collapsed under the ensuing scrutiny....For the first time ever, the Iowa GOP changed the final vote count to a secret location . After the caucus, results from 8 precincts (including those with colleges, in a state where Paul won 48% of the youth vote) went missing. Interestingly, these were all precincts Romney lost in 2008. In addition, GOP officials discovered inaccuracies in 131 precincts. Though polling in a comfortable first place, Paul finished third in this non-binding straw poll, behind Romney and Santorum.

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And down east in Maine, Glenn tells us:

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Ben Swann reported on shenanigans... Even though only 84% of votes had been counted; State GOP Chairman, Charlie Webster, declared Romney the winner over Paul by less than 200 votes. Hancock and Washington Counties hadn't voted yet because Webster cancelled the caucuses due to an impending snowstorm, promising they could vote later and their votes would be counted. The snowstorm never occurred and he later reneged on his promise, telling voters in those counties their votes would not be counted after all. Washington County was Paul's strongest in the state in 2008.

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All this is in addition to the ample mathematical evidence of vote-flipping against Paul in Iowa and NH detailed in the study "Evidence of Algorithmic Vote Flipping in GOP Primary Elections" linked at the Von Mises Institute website.


http://s4.hubimg.com/u/6914995_f520.jpg

http://s1.hubimg.com/u/6915024_f520.jpg

As for whether the votes will be officially counted, this is not as important as having an accurate count proving who actually won. It will be up to the states' electors who vote their conscience and decide which results to honor. WriteinRon2012.com makes a startlingly simple and ingenious proposal: use the absentee ballot to prove your vote, which is paper and can be photocopied. The beauty of Iowa, NH, and Maine is that, population-wise, they are small. With some kind of ground organization it is entirely conceivable that, given proof against the dirty tricks which are likely to be deployed, and given Paul's true numbers, strong, perhaps even winning, write-in votes can be cast.

Such showings would throw a spotlight on these states' election machinery for the next 3 years, perhaps forcing enough reform for Ron or Rand at last get a fair shake in 2016.

Does anyone know if new York allows for write ins? I'm in long island and I'm writing Ron Paul in regardless!!

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Originally Posted by rb3b3

Does anyone know if new York allows for write ins? I'm in long island and I'm writing Ron Paul in regardless!!

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NY is one of the states where the candidate must file. There's another thread that keeps the Write-In status for all states.
http://writeinron2012.com/writeinBlo...012/09/map.jpg

Here's the Write-In strategy for 2012:
http://writeinron2012.com/writeinBlog/our-strategy/

There are two main goals here:
1) To actually win at least ONE state

We believe that at least Iowa can be won. We have to concentrate or time and money efforts on that state, but you can still Write-In Ron where you live. You can also for example Write-In Gary Johnson where he has been removed from the ballot, like recently in Oklahoma. We would prefer ONLY in Iowa that you would Write-In Ron instead of Gary Johnson. Vote for whoever you want in 49 states, but lets please make an effort to win ONE for Ron.

2) To guarantee that your vote will be counted: Use the method described about 1/2 down the page here: http://writeinron2012.com/writeinBlog/our-strategy/
All the forms have been produced and ready to use:
http://writeinron2012.com/writeinBlog/forms/

Iowa is winnable and this will open up the path to liberty candidates in 2016.

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Originally Posted by RonRules

NY is one of the states where the candidate must file. There's another thread that keeps the Write-In status for all states.
http://writeinron2012.com/writeinBlo...012/09/map.jpg

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Just a quick thought off the top of my head, in the states that have Sore Loser Laws, what are the possibilities of securing the Americans Elect line? Oklahoma, I know, is trying something like this. (Just to be clear, here, I support ballot access and allowing whoever wants to to vote for whoever they want and have it counted, but I probably will not be voting RP in the General.)

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Originally Posted by rb3b3

Does anyone know if new York allows for write ins? I'm in long island and I'm writing Ron Paul in regardless!!

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There is a write-in Ron Paul New York campaign, more info here:

http://www.dailypaul.com/254356/writ...new-york-state

Also don't forget Richard Gilbert is suing to have write-ins counted everywhere regardless, and was/is looking for plaintiffs (just means you are a person from such and such state who wants this change.):

http://www.dailypaul.com/254688/plai...-all-50-states

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Originally Posted by dntrpltt

Just a quick thought off the top of my head, in the states that have Sore Loser Laws, what are the possibilities of securing the Americans Elect line? Oklahoma, I know, is trying something like this. (Just to be clear, here, I support ballot access and allowing whoever wants to to vote for whoever they want and have it counted, but I probably will not be voting RP in the General.)

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Keep in mind sore loser laws don't apply to presidential elections, because you are actually voting for electors, not the candidate. Since an elector never ran before he is not a sore loser. Unforeseen good side effect of the electoral college system.

I really don't think this is going to happen. NH and IA are toss up states. Both campaigns are throwing millions of dollars at both states. ME has an even larger problem. Ron Paul has little support there. Plus, some of the ads meant for NH are also reaching people in ME.

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Originally Posted by Keith and stuff

ME has an even larger problem. Ron Paul has little support there. Plus, some of the ads meant for NH are also reaching people in ME.

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The plan is to concentrate on Iowa, but ME has very strong support for Paul. Without the fraud he clearly won the popular vote, he sweeped the convention, so I don't know what you're talking about.

It's also a way to make the GOP realize that the Liberty movement IS the swing vote. They'll lose IA and NH without us.

I worry that the figures you're using to make this sound possible are only taking into account the people who actually participated in the caucus process.

There are millions of more people who don't participate in the caucuses who will be voting for Romney because the T.V. told them Obama is bad.

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Originally Posted by RonRules

The plan is to concentrate on Iowa, but ME has very strong support for Paul. Without the fraud he clearly won the popular vote, he sweeped the convention, so I don't know what you're talking about.

It's also a way to make the GOP realize that the Liberty movement IS the swing vote. They'll lose IA and NH without us.

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Most people couldn't care less about the caucuses in Maine so people didn't both to vote. Around 2,000 people voted for Ron Paul in Maine. 2,000 votes isn't going to make a dent in 400,000 votes.

2008 Maine Results:
Obama 421,923
McCain 295,273
Nader 10,636
McKinney 2,900
Barr 251
Baldwin 177
Other 431

I can't wait until election day so this insanity will finally come to an end. This is so embarrassing.

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Originally Posted by RonPaulFever

I can't wait until election day so this insanity will finally come to an end. This is so embarrassing.

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wait until a loaf of brad costs 20 bucks and dollars are worthless. That will be even more embarrassing.

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Originally Posted by RonPaulFever

I can't wait until election day so this insanity will finally come to an end. This is so embarrassing.

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Without this kind of discord, we can surely get people in 49 states to help win Iowa for Ron. This is entirely doable, but we need cohesion, not divisiveness.

Visualize this important success and help those that want to get this done. Meanwhile in all other 49 states, vote for who you want.

This effort is totally reasonable.

A tiny percentage of voters in the general election participate in the primary. Usually less than 1%. There is absolutely no way on earth what you are proposing will be successful and Ron Paul as a write in could win a state. If he breaks 1% that would success.

The title of this thread says.."the numbers are there". Umm, no they are not. Not here in Iowa. Obama and Romney will spend millions here in my home state alone. Iowa is a swing state. The political world is still extremely divisive. It's red or blue, Republican or Democrat, Romney or Obama. This write-in campaign would have to spend hundreds of thousands if not millions just to get enough Iowans aware they could write in Ron Paul. Then there is this nagging question to be asked -- Would they write-in Ron Paul? Well, that's gonna take millions more to convince enough Iowans to vote something other than the party line. As much as I would love to see Ron Paul win a state to make a statement -- it's not going to happen, barring something catastrophic.

I mentioned in another thread here, Iowa allows straight-ticket voting. Which means, put a mark next to "Republican", and you've just voted for every Republican on the ballot. Now your ballot is done. I don't have statewide data yet but in one county 27% of voters vote straight ticket. Grandma and grandpa don't want to take the time to write in a candidate and then go through the entire ballot, office by office.

This post isn't meant to keep anyone from writing-in Dr. Paul on the ballot. If that is your intention then please don't let me stop you. I am just trying to lay out reality here so folks don't get upset and cry corruption when Paul doesn't win a state as a write-in.

I'm sorry, but I asked you two in your other thread why not try to get on the ballot instead of write-in, and you never replied. Did you even think about the question? I just wonder how much you've really thought this through. There is virtually no chance of a write-in candidate winning in a state-wide election. It would be unprecedented. Do you realize that? I'm not sure you do. I'm not sure you have a firm grasp on political realities... which is fine and good, by the way, as politics is not the most interesting nor productive thing to be knowledgeable about. But seriously, the numbers are very clearly not there. To put forth a near-impossibility as a virtual done-deal if only we'll all pull together is just sad.

I mean, go for it by all means! The more Iowans you educate for freedom, the better! But please realize that winning a state for Ron Paul is a virtual impossibility, not a virtual certainty.

Instead of wasting time, energy, and money on this, why don't we do something more productive that has a better chance at advancing liberty?

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Originally Posted by mport1

Instead of wasting time, energy, and money on this, why don't we do something more productive that has a better chance at advancing liberty?

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Go right ahead. Start a thread about your ideas and maybe some people will join in on it.

Well, I'm going to see how many Ron Paul write-ins I can get for PA and my county. I thought we did good in 2008. If I can convert all those Mickey Mouse write-in voters to Ron Paul - he will do rather well in my county.

Edit: maybe write a open letter to the Mickey Mouse voters. lol

OP I love your spirit, and wish you success.

I have bounced all over the place on who to vote for this election. For awhile, I was even going to vote for Obama, just to make sure that Romney didn't win. Yes, with me its.. ANYONE BUT ROMNEY! He totally scares me. I think he has no idea of foreign policy, and is very vague when it comes to economic change. I do think he would hurt our nation even more than Obama. But Obama does not need me, he is going to win in a landslide. And then... I was also going to vote for Gary Johnson, but he hasn't any more of a chance to win than Ron Paul.

So the heck with it... I am back to NOBP. I live in Missouri, so its not going to count, but it will sure make me feel good to see his name on my ballot. (even if I have to add it on).

We sure tried, but in the end... we are owned. :(

+rep and a five star thread Because I can and you deserve it!

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Originally Posted by TrishW

OP I love your spirit, and wish you success.

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That's the spirit!

As far as getting RP on the ballot, because Ron is a Republican and Romney is already there, I don't think that's possible.

To those that say Write-Ins are unlikely to succeed, history shows otherwise: (From Wiki)

Presidential primaries:

In 1928, Herbert Hoover won the Republican Massachusetts presidential primary on write-ins, polling 100,279.

In 1940, Franklin D. Roosevelt won the Democratic New Jersey presidential primary with 34,278 write-ins.

In 1944, Thomas Dewey won the Republican Pennsylvania presidential primary with 146,706 write-ins. He also won the Oregon Republican presidential primary with 50,001 write-ins.

In 1948, Harold Stassen won the Republican Pennsylvania presidential primary with 81,242 write-ins.

In 1952, Robert Taft won the Republican Nebraska presidential primary with 79,357 write-ins.

Also in 1952, Estes Kefauver won the Democratic Pennsylvania presidential primary with 93,160 write-ins.

Also in 1952, Dwight Eisenhower won the Republican Massachusetts presidential primary with 254,898 write-ins.

In 1956, Dwight Eisenhower won the Republican Massachusetts presidential primary with 51,951 write-ins.

In 1960, Richard Nixon won the Republican Massachusetts presidential primary with 53,164 write-ins.

Also in 1960, John F. Kennedy won the Democratic Pennsylvania presidential primary with 183,073 write-ins, and he won the Democratic Massachusetts presidential primary with 91,607 write-ins.

In 1964, a write-in campaign organized by supporters of former U.S. Senator and vice presidential nominee Henry Cabot Lodge, Jr. won Republican primaries for President in New Hampshire, New Jersey, and Massachusetts, defeating declared candidates Barry Goldwater, Nelson Rockefeller, and Margaret Chase Smith.

In 1968 in the Democratic presidential primary in New Hampshire, incumbent President Lyndon Johnson did not file, but received write-ins totaling 50% of all Democratic votes cast. Senator Eugene McCarthy, who campaigned actively against Johnson’s Vietnam war policies, was on the ballot. He received an impressive 41% of the vote and gained more delegates than the President. Johnson was so stunned that he did not run for reelection.

Consumer advocate Ralph Nader ran a write-in campaign in 1992 during the New Hampshire primary for the presidential nomination of both the Democratic and Republican parties. Declaring himself the "none of the above candidate" and using the Concord Principles as his platform, Nader received 3,054 votes from Democrats and 3,258 votes from Republicans.

Senate

Republican William Knowland was elected in 1946 to the U.S. Senate from California, for a two-month term. The special election for the two-month term featured a November ballot with no names printed on it, and all candidates in that special election were write-in candidates.

Democrat Strom Thurmond was elected in 1954 to the United States Senate in South Carolina as a write-in candidate, after state Democratic leaders had blocked him from receiving the party's nomination.

In 2010 incumbent Alaska Senator Lisa Murkowski lost the Republican primary to Joe Miller. Following her defeat she ran in the general election as a write in candidate. Murkowski had filed, and won, a lawsuit requiring election officials to have the list of names of write in candidates distributed at the polls and subsequently won the election with a wide enough margin over both Miller, and Democratic Party candidate Scott T. McAdams, to make moot the write-in ballots that had been challenged by Miller.


House of Representatives

In 1918, Peter F. Tague was elected to the U.S. House as a write-in independent Democrat, defeating the Democratic nominee, John F. Fitzgerald.

In 1930 Republican Charles F. Curry, Jr. was elected to the House as a write-in from Sacramento, California. His father, Congressman Charles F. Curry Sr., was to appear on the ballot, but due to his untimely death his name was removed and no candidate's name appeared on the ballot.

Plus 8 more ...

State legislatures

Charlotte Burks won as a Democratic write-in candidate for the Tennessee State Senate seat left vacant when the incumbent, her husband Tommy, was assassinated by his opponent, Byron Looper, two weeks before the elections of November 2, 1998. The assassin was the only name on the ballot, so Charlotte ran as a write in candidate.

Carl Hawkinson of Galesburg, Illinois won the Republican primary for State Senator from Illinois's 47th District in 1986 as a write-in candidate. He went on to be elected in the general election and served until 2003. Hawkinson defeated another write-in, David Leitch, in the primary. Incumbent State Senator Prescott Bloom died in a home fire after the filing date for the primary had passed.

Plus 2 more ...


Local government

Julia Allen of Readington, New Jersey won a write-in campaign in the November 2005 elections for the Township Committee, after a candidate accused of corruption had won the primary.

Tom Ammiano, President of the San Francisco Board of Supervisors, entered the race for Mayor of San Francisco, California as a write-in candidate two weeks before the 1999 general election. He received 25% of the vote, coming in second place and forcing incumbent Mayor Willie Brown into a runoff election, which Brown won by margin of 59% to 40%. In 2001, the campaign was immortalized in the award-winning documentary film See How They Run.

Plus 9 more ...

Others

Aaron Schock was elected to the District 150 School Board in Peoria, Illinois in 2001 by a write-in vote, after his petitions were challenged and his name was removed from the ballot. He defeated the incumbent by over 2,000 votes, approximately 6,400 to 4,300 votes. He went on to serve in the Illinois House of Representatives, and was elected to the United States House of Representatives in 2008.

John Adams became an Orange County, California judge in November 2002 after running along with 10 other write-in candidates in the primaries on March 5, 2002 against incumbent Judge Ronald Kline

Plus 2 more

Other countries

With a few exceptions, the practice of recognizing write-in candidates is typically viewed internationally as an American tradition.

One of the most famous examples was the 1826 County Clare By-Elections in Ireland. Daniel O'Connell had won by way of a write-in due to the illegality of an Irish Catholic running as a political candidate at that time.

Plus 3 more.

There are so many successful cases of Write In elections that I had to cut the length of the post and remove some.

We CAN do this. Ron Paul is a popular guy and most people are unhappy with the two current choices. Help Iowa do this.

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Originally Posted by RonRules

As far as getting RP on the ballot, because Ron is a Republican and Romney is already there, I don't think that's possible.

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It's not possible because the ballot is already printed. There's no changing who will or will not appear on the Iowa ballot at this date.

This topic is the summation of the cult-like behavior Ron Paul supporters get accused of. You're voting for someone who legally cannot win in states that do not have demographics to allow him to win and who isn't even actively running, and the scary part is you think he can win.

Let's say you believe in the vote flipping conspiracy theory and you believe Paul won a large number of votes in these states and the support is secretly there and is disguised by all the mainstream news media because their polls are evil NWO Lizardpeople polls that report false numbers.

Let's pretend all of that is true. Why then... why would they let Ron Paul win on the official election ballot? Why would all the vote flipping NWO Lizardpeople let Ron win on the official ballot?

This topic is demonstrating some really scary North Korea level of personality cult-like behavior.

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As far as getting RP on the ballot, because Ron is a Republican and Romney is already there, I don't think that's possible.

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Originally Posted by RockEnds

It's not possible because the ballot is already printed. There's no changing who will or will not appear on the Iowa ballot at this date.

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OK, fair enough. Best of luck! I just thought one of the existing minor political parties might be able to put Ron on their ballot line.

I'm all for writing in Ron Paul, by the way. It's what I'll certainly do, if I vote this November, which I may. Just don't get discouraged or disenchanted if a realistic outcome (e.g.: Ron Paul not winning Iowa) happens to occur. Keep fighting for liberty!

Here's how Lisa Murkowski did it:

http://www.campaignsandelections.com...rom-lisa.thtml

"“We really had to go the write-in route because there was no other way,” says Kevin Sweeney, Murkowski’s write-in campaign manager. “Given the choice, I would have much rather had [her] name on the ballot.”

When Murkowski declared her write-in bid six weeks before the general election date, she announced her campaign slogan: “Let’s make history.” Indeed, no one had run a successful write-in campaign for Senate since 1956, the year the late Sen. Strom Thurmond won as a Democrat in South Carolina."

Organization and Voter Education

"If you’re waging a write-in bid, volunteers and political organizers better head into the field more prepared and educated than in a traditional race. They can employ traditional campaign methods, such as knocking on doors or distributing yard signs, but every organizer also needs to know the basic instructions of the state’s write-in ballot. For example, Murkowski’s volunteers distributed literature and paraphernalia with the words “Fill it in; Write it in.” It was a reminder that in Alaska, voters must not only write in her name, but also fill in the corresponding bubble with a writing utensil to ensure their ballot is counted correctly.

In any race, it helps if the candidate is an established officeholder or is already well known."

"The bottom line, say strategists of both Murkowski’s 2010 effort and past write-in campaigns, is that while there is a path to success, you need some prerequisites. A lack of high name ID and a built-in base of fundraising support and organization are more likely than not disqualifiers.

More importantly, the lasting impact of Murkowski’s 2010 victory may be that more established candidates will now see the write-in route as a viable option if they do get edged out in a party primary. If a candidate does opt for the write-in route, Murkowski’s playbook is a pretty good start."

She, being and "establishment" candidate may have had help from vote flipping. I have yet to check that election.

This thread is kind of ridiculous....

The numbers are there?

I'm assuming your plan involves voting for Ron Paul without any active campaigning from him.

How could that possibly work?


The only way I think Ron Paul has the chance to win a state is if he actively campaigned as an independent

taking every scrap of elector he can get,

and to really get the largest slice of the pie possible... include so called faithless electors (who don't show their hand early like some have recently). Which were similarly planned by many as covert delegates in the primary.


(BTW, does anybody have any idea how many "stealth" candidates, or otherwise bound Paul supporters there were at the convention??)


Now if Ron really did run as an independent it would cause quite a splash.
Obviously a running mate would have to be chosen in order to be a legitmate candidate in most states.

That choice could potentially get people talking. Of course the media would be screaming spoiler at the top of their lungs and when Ron achieves vote totals as high as 5 to 10 percent in some states ( I imagine feasibly), one party is going to be angry and blame him for their loss. Hard to say how all that would play out really, but it seems to be the more exposure the liberty movement gets, the better. Are the electoral numbers there for an actual victory through write-in at this point?
It sounds like you're just trying to win one state like an island, and there's no possiblity of a write-in win.

I don't have delusions of grandeur and think he's going to mysteriously win at this point, I just think that if he made a real effort as campaigning as an independent a single state victory could be possible. And it would also give a voice to all the people who truly feel NOBP and refuse to vote for anyone else.
If Ron Paul agreed to run as a write-in candidate then many more people would be able to vote for him instead of settling for an alternative like Gary Johnson who they don't even really like. Hell, I voted for Obama last time because I thought his foreign policy and civil liberties would be better than the other guy. Boy was I wrong.

As I said earlier, if he runs independent, the media will bash him for it but it might get people's attention.
Garner a lot of votes from the 'screw both parties' people.

Ron Paul hasn't endorsed Romney so why should he care if he loses?

Does Ron Paul have a loyalty to the Republican party based mainly through Rand?

It looks like Ron isn't going to run in order to avoid problems with us continuing to work within the Republic party (if you can even call it that).

You can actually get some media from this. Have Ron Paul visit Dixville, New Hampshire on the day before the election and give a speech. Dixville is known as the 1st place to vote in Presidential elections. It only has 12 people and it does vote unusually from time to time.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dixville,_New_Hampshire

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It was organized for voting purposes in 1960, and the village of Dixville Notch is commonly known as the first place to cast votes in U.S. elections.

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http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dixvill...ting_tradition

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Dixville Notch is best known in connection with its longstanding middle-of-the-night vote in the U.S. presidential election, including during the New Hampshire primary (the first primary election in the U.S. presidential nomination process). In a tradition that started in the 1960 election, all the eligible voters in Dixville Notch gather at midnight in the ballroom of The Balsams. The voters cast their ballots and the polls officially are closed one minute later. The results of the Dixville Notch vote in both the New Hampshire primary and the general election are traditionally broadcast around the country immediately afterwards.

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Press accounts occasionally state, without qualification, that Dixville Notch "votes first". The village's authentic electoral distinctions include the following:
Longest continuous record of midnight voting
Highest count of midnight presidential primaries (13 as of 2008, vs. 5 to 9 for Hart's Location)
At least one of the first handful of lawful votes (nationwide) in each presidential campaign's binding primaries
Often first to report its returns

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In the presidential election of November 2, 2004, the village had 26 registered voters, roughly half of whom were registered Republican; the other half were registered "undeclared", i.e., unaffiliated with a party. New Hampshire law, though, allows a voter to declare or change a party affiliation upon arriving at the polling place, so a number of independent voters vote in the Democratic party primary.

The votes are counted immediately after all are received; the Dixville Notch results of the primary (and now the Hart's Location ones as well) often lead morning news programs on election day. During every election year since 1968, the candidate with the plurality of Dixville Notch's voters has been the eventual Republican nominee for president. On the Democratic side, however, the village's election results have less often predicted the nominee. In 2000, for example, Bill Bradley won the most votes among Dixville Notch's Democratic primary voters although Al Gore was the party's eventual nominee.

In 1992, the Libertarian Party unsuccessfully attempted to capitalize upon Andre Marrou's unexpectedly strong showing in Dixville Notch in the general election. In 2004, Democratic candidate Wesley Clark was the only contender to personally visit Dixville Notch; he was on hand when the votes were cast and counted, and he received the majority of Democratic votes cast. (Clark placed third and received only 13 percent of votes statewide.)

The community's voting tradition received a nod in the 2002 third season episode of US television program The West Wing, in an episode entitled "Hartsfield's Landing", named after a town clearly modeled on either Dixville Notch, or its companion, Hart's Location.

In 2008, Senator Barack Obama became the first Democrat to win the community's vote in a presidential election since 1968, by a margin of 15 to 6.[3]

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