Bailout “needs to be in the $6 trillion range”

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03-24-2020, 10:08 PM
CCTelander

Quote:

Originally Posted by RJB

Alright, so back to the topic: McDonald's, Walmart, etc. will get a bailout, but what will happen to that mom and pop restaurant/store/etc. down the street that was forced to close se for a month?

They'll get replaced by McDonald's or Walmart, or some other multi-national corporate chain and wind up working for the motherfuckers at minimum wage. Ain't America great?
03-24-2020, 10:13 PM
nikcers

Quote:

Originally Posted by RJB

I am not talking about health care. Did you read a thing I posted, Chicken Little?

China shut down and they dont give a fuck about their people. New York is going to be shut down completely because they are doubling every other day. This isn't a joke. The healthcare industry was going to crash the economy. What if its Rand who can't get a respirator? Are you going to run for Senate and defend the constitution?
03-24-2020, 10:16 PM
RJB

Quote:

Originally Posted by CCTelander

They'll get replaced by McDonald's or Walmart, or some other multi-national corporate chain and wind up working for the motherfuckers at minimum wage. Ain't America great?

That's the whole point of this quarantine. I have enough savings to survive a few months at the most. On the other hand, I know plenty of businesses barely getting by week to week.
03-24-2020, 10:18 PM
Brian4Liberty

Quote:

Originally Posted by Krugminator2

Larry's a big gold standard guy. You should love him. Thinks the Fed has no power to do anything for the economy. Tax cuts answer to everything.

I, on the other hand, have thought he was a boob and posted about it going back to when Rand hired Steve Moore (part of the Kudlow, Laffer, Moore team) to write his tax plan.

In addition to Kudlow being a neocon globalist, here’s my take on him from 2008:

Quote:

Originally Posted by Brian4Liberty

It was a good show tonight, Schiff was on most of it, and was good as usual.

Don't let Kudlow fool you with his "I believe in free-market capitalism" schtick. He grinned when Reich called him a supply-sider. They are all in on the inside joke. Kudlow (and his buddy Laffer) likes to take credit for being supply side allies of Reagan, but in reality, he worked to undermine everything Reagan was trying to do. Kudlow wanted to raise taxes on the common folk, and no taxes for the elite. And he and his fake Republican allies got their huge tax increase during the Reagan years. He's a Hamiltonian elitist, and expert truth stretcher...he's the stereotype of the "fake" Republican: a big government "capitalist".

"Goldilocks" economy. Right up to the point where it crashed.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Brian4Liberty

When he was in government, Kudlow's great contribution to the supply-side movement was creating budget forecasts that were "overly-optimistic"...

As for Kudlow and gold:

Quote:

Originally Posted by Brian4Liberty

Anyone see Kudlow yesterday? Another attempt to co-opt the Ron Paul message (just like he and Laffer did to Reagan). Anyway, now he is calling for gold to be part of international currency. Just a ploy to push world currency me thinks.

Never trust Kudlow or Laffer. Their only interest in gold is to use the word as ploy to create confidence in a 100% fiat (and global) currency.

Gold talk starts around 3:30 in the link below:

http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=1079313301&play=1
03-24-2020, 10:18 PM
Krugminator2

Quote:

Originally Posted by Warlord

@Krugminator2 thinks you can borrow and print $6 trillion with no negative consequences for the purchasing power of the dollar or inflation. He is of course dead wrong (not for the first time... he even admits it). I still struggle to think why he's on RonPaulForums when he rejects Ron's common sense economics.

I do admit when I am wrong. I have also been right like 95% of my posts on markets. Many very astute posts. But I absolutely own when I am wrong.

That is something Peter Schiff and Ron Paul do not do. If you listened and acted on their financial advice, suicide would probably have been the best option if you listened to their advice They were wrong about everything. Not just kind of wrong. Catasrophically wrong. The worst records I have ever seen. They are very confident. And very wrong. They babbled endlessly about the market plunging and inflation. There was no inflation and the stock market is still up 300% from the bottom. They never own it. Ron said bonds were a bubble in 2012. If you shorted bonds then, killing yourself would be the best bet at this point. Ron has been bearish on the United States since the 70s. He has a portfolio of junk gold miners that have lagged the market forever and gold while stocks as a whole are up a zillion percent over that time.

Schiff isn't even right about this. The market is plunging on virus and corporate debt not because of anything the Fed did or government spending. And if the government does their job (which it looks like they just might) and things recover he will be back to babbling for another decade about the world ending and be wrong the whole time.
03-24-2020, 10:18 PM
RJB

Quote:

Originally Posted by nikcers

China shut down and they dont give a fuck about their people. New York is going to be shut down completely because they are doubling every other day. This isn't a joke. The healthcare industry was going to crash the economy. What if its Rand who can't get a respirator? Are you going to run for Senate and defend the constitution?

I have been getting frustrated with our back and forth. For one, I had a bit to drink tonight. Two, I can't figure out if you are disagreeing or echoing me.
03-24-2020, 11:01 PM
kpitcher

Quote:

Originally Posted by RJB

That's the whole point of this quarantine. I have enough savings to survive a few months at the most. On the other hand, I know plenty of businesses barely getting by week to week.

Growing up in family run business I have a lot of respect for any entrepreneur. It's often times more of a pain in the ass than anyone not involved in one can imagine. This quarantine is bad. The government response to a pandemic was horrid. If the current shutdowns last for another month or longer, which it seems will happen, I see a lot of mom and pop places not surviving to reopen.

The major corps pay no taxes, it's the middle class owned places carrying that burden, yet they won't be able to get easy loans to ride this through. The wonders of corporatism.
03-24-2020, 11:07 PM
Brian4Liberty

Quote:

Originally Posted by RJB

Alright, so back to the topic: McDonald's, Walmart, etc. will get a bailout, but what will happen to that mom and pop restaurant/store/etc. down the street that was forced to close se for a month?

You may have to ask Kudlow or @Krugminator2 if small businesses will get anything out of that $6 trillion.

Employees of a small business should be able to file for unemployment insurance. The small business itself is in a tight spot if it has expenses but no revenue. Many restaurants have furloughed staff and sold take out food for some revenue. The amount of revenue will vary.
03-24-2020, 11:07 PM
Warlord

Quote:

Originally Posted by Krugminator2

I do admit when I am wrong. I have also been right like 95% of my posts on markets. Many very astute posts. But I absolutely own when I am wrong.

That is something Peter Schiff and Ron Paul do not do. If you listened and acted on their financial advice, suicide would probably have been the best option if you listened to their advice They were wrong about everything. Not just kind of wrong. Catasrophically wrong. The worst records I have ever seen. They are very confident. And very wrong. They babbled endlessly about the market plunging and inflation. There was no inflation and the stock market is still up 300% from the bottom. They never own it. Ron said bonds were a bubble in 2012. If you shorted bonds then, killing yourself would be the best bet at this point. Ron has been bearish on the United States since the 70s. He has a portfolio of junk gold miners that have lagged the market forever and gold while stocks as a whole are up a zillion percent over that time.

Schiff isn't even right about this. The market is plunging on virus and corporate debt not because of anything the Fed did or government spending. And if the government does their job (which it looks like they just might) and things recover he will be back to babbling for another decade about the world ending and be wrong the whole time.

Please tell me your kidding. Schiff specifically predicted the real estate and financial collapse in 08 and also predicted that the Fed would lower rates to Zero and do more QE last year (which just happened). He makes basic observations using Austrian economics. He does say he can't predict exact dates

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cpWcnQGg-Bk
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cpWcnQGg-Bk

And:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sgRGBNekFIw&t=3s
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sgRGBNekFIw&t=3s
03-25-2020, 07:03 AM
Krugminator2

Quote:

Originally Posted by Warlord

Please tell me your kidding. Schiff specifically predicted the real estate and financial collapse in 08 and also predicted that the Fed would lower rates to Zero and do more QE last year (which just happened). He makes basic observations using Austrian economics. He does say he can't predict exact dates

He did get the mortgage stuff right and then was wrong the next 12 years. Most economists thought we would go zero in the next recession so that wasn't any bold prediction. That isn't anything.

The list of his wrong pronouncements is endless. I am not debating this. It isn't a matter of opinion that his entire inflation premise is wrong. Those are the facts.

Here is debating an actual economist, Scott Sumner who has been more right than anyone the last 12 years. This is from 2013 with Peter Schiff talking about the super secret inflation. That was seven years ago. Commodities just hit multi decade lows.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_b4_KuC1-sQ
03-25-2020, 07:26 AM
Madison320

Quote:

Originally Posted by Krugminator2

Who said it was free? It will come at the expense of future growth. But that is preferable to doing nothing and having no growth until 2030.

No first world capitalist country has ever had hyperinflation in peacetime through money printing. Japan has run deficits bigger than this onetime deficit for decades.

Basic math says you're wrong. Let's see what happens when people start getting those freshly printed bills and heading to buy groceries.
03-25-2020, 07:26 AM
devil21

Quote:

Originally Posted by RJB

Alright, so back to the topic: McDonald's, Walmart, etc. will get a bailout, but what will happen to that mom and pop restaurant/store/etc. down the street that was forced to close se for a month?

The big boys get no-strings handouts while the little guy still has to schlep over to the banker for an interest-bearing loan of money the bank creates out of thin air. CNBC interviewed Bernanke this morning and he said (lightly paraphrased) "The Fed doesn't have the ability to assess payments to barber shops and nail salons, so the Fed will funnel money to the banks so the banks can issue credit to them."
03-25-2020, 08:12 AM
Warlord

Quote:

Originally Posted by Krugminator2

He did get the mortgage stuff right and then was wrong the next 12 years. Most economists thought we would go zero in the next recession so that wasn't any bold prediction. That isn't anything.

The list of his wrong pronouncements is endless. I am not debating this. It isn't a matter of opinion that his entire inflation premise is wrong. Those are the facts.

Here is debating an actual economist, Scott Sumner who has been more right than anyone the last 12 years. This is from 2013 with Peter Schiff talking about the super secret inflation. That was seven years ago. Commodities just hit multi decade lows.

So you admit he WAS right. Great. As for inflation he has stated several times that it's hard to predict dates. He says he never expected the Fed and the government to be able to prop up the dollar for so long but he still forecasts inflation if they monetize the debt, which they're going to do. Also if you listened to Schiff in 2013 Gold was $1000-1200 it's now $1650 so there are a lot of people who Schiff helped get out of the dollar and into gold who are grateful .
03-25-2020, 08:15 AM
Warlord

Quote:

Originally Posted by devil21

The big boys get no-strings handouts while the little guy still has to schlep over to the banker for an interest-bearing loan of money the bank creates out of thin air. CNBC interviewed Bernanke this morning and he said (lightly paraphrased) "The Fed doesn't have the ability to assess payments to barber shops and nail salons, so the Fed will funnel money to the banks so the banks can issue credit to them."
03-25-2020, 08:39 AM
acptulsa

Quote:

Originally Posted by Madison320

Basic math says you're wrong. Let's see what happens when people start getting those freshly printed bills and heading to buy groceries.

Agreed. But once again, there's still no fixing the date. That's the handy thing about this crisis. The "money" can have no velocity while we're all sitting at home cowering with our thumbs up our asses.

Either that or Bezos will wind up with all of it while commercial real estate crashes.
03-25-2020, 08:55 AM
Warlord

Quote:

Originally Posted by acptulsa

Agreed. But once again, there's still no fixing the date. That's the handy thing about this crisis. The "money" can have no velocity while we're all sitting at home cowering with our thumbs up our asses.

Either that or Bezos will wind up with all of it while commercial real estate crashes.

You can buy gold or silver to protect the purchasing power of your soon to be devalued dollars. That's if you can find any during this time.
03-25-2020, 10:10 AM
Brian4Liberty

Quote:

Originally Posted by Krugminator2

...
Here is debating an actual economist, Scott Sumner who has been more right than anyone the last 12 years. This is from 2013 with Peter Schiff talking about the super secret inflation. That was seven years ago. Commodities just hit multi decade lows.
...

No inflation?

Let’s see... Housing up. Rent up. Groceries up. Beer up. Restaurant prices up. Building materials up. Labor costs up. Medical insurance and costs skyrocket. Almost everything else has seen price inflation.

But because there is naked shorting of gold and silver there is no price inflation? And because oil production has ramped up oil prices have gone down. Those are exceptions, that just happen to be key indicators. Kind of fishy that just the key indicators go down, and everything else goes up. It doesn’t get hot as long as you can put the thermometer in ice.

Alan Greenspan’s greatest fear was that the crony corporatist globalists would run out of ever cheaper labor, which was their biggest method of disguising and offsetting monetary inflation. That has happened. The cheap labor sources have all been utilized. Labor costs will only go up from here.

Where will they get more ice to put on the thermometer?
03-25-2020, 10:13 AM
Brian4Liberty

Quote:

Originally Posted by Warlord

So you admit he WAS right. Great. As for inflation he has stated several times that it's hard to predict dates. He says he never expected the Fed and the government to be able to prop up the dollar for so long but he still forecasts inflation if they monetize the debt, which they're going to do. Also if you listened to Schiff in 2013 Gold was $1000-1200 it's now $1650 so there are a lot of people who Schiff helped get out of the dollar and into gold who are grateful .

See my take on inflation above.
03-25-2020, 10:21 AM
Warlord

Quote:

Originally Posted by Brian4Liberty

See my take on inflation above.

Good write up. I think what he means is there's been no hyperinflation which Schiff still forecasts is coming just not sure when. Also worth noting is the CPI they used is RIGGED to show less inflation through the manipulation of the 'basket' of goods. They conveniently strip out anything that's on the rise on a month to month basis!
03-25-2020, 10:27 AM
Brian4Liberty

Quote:

Originally Posted by Warlord

Good write up. I think what he means is there's been no hyperinflation which Schiff still forecasts is coming just not sure when. Also worth noting is the CPI they used is RIGGED to show less inflation through the manipulation of the 'basket' of goods. They conveniently strip out anything that's on the rise on a month to month basis!

I don’t follow any of these guys closely. Calls for hyperinflation are problematic. Hyperinflation only occurs when there are better alternatives. US dollar hegemony makes hyperinflation less likely. Manipulating alternatives and indicators hides it. Boil the common people slowly.

CPI, yeah, more thermometer rigging. Lies, damned lies and government statistics.
03-25-2020, 10:47 AM
Brian4Liberty

Quote:

Originally Posted by Krugminator2

He did get the mortgage stuff right and then was wrong the next 12 years. Most economists thought we would go zero in the next recession so that wasn't any bold prediction. That isn't anything.

The list of his wrong pronouncements is endless. I am not debating this. It isn't a matter of opinion that his entire inflation premise is wrong. Those are the facts.
...

Short term investment advise is always a problem. The big money advisors change their advise on a daily basis. They can never be pinned down because they are always adapting their advise to the current reality. Their bad calls are forgotten the day after they make them.

Schiff is consistent. That doesn’t mean that his short term predictions are more accurate than anyone else. As a matter of fact, his short term predictions will be wrong most of the time.

It’s like Schiff is a guy saying that a hurricane is going to hit Miami, prepare for it. The Wall St. people are like your weatherman. They call for the same weather tomorrow as today. They are usually right. And if they call for a storm, it may or may not happen. But their forecasts are never remembered.

Traders should take everyone’s advise with a grain of salt.
03-25-2020, 11:02 AM
Warlord

Quote:

Originally Posted by Brian4Liberty

Schiff is consistent..

Remember this?

https://youtu.be/-6u1kG7yuy4
https://youtu.be/-6u1kG7yuy4

Who would you rather listen to? The morons on cable tv or Schiff?
03-25-2020, 12:02 PM
RonZeplin

Quote:

Originally Posted by Warlord

Remember this?

https://youtu.be/-6u1kG7yuy4
https://youtu.be/-6u1kG7yuy4

Who would you rather listen to? The morons on cable tv or Schiff?

Gold is taking a hit today but silver is up. Don't worry they're both headed up soon. :D
03-25-2020, 01:38 PM
oyarde

Quote:

Originally Posted by Warlord

You can buy gold or silver to protect the purchasing power of your soon to be devalued dollars. That's if you can find any during this time.

Gold and silver are like guns and ammo . You need to get it before you need it .
03-25-2020, 02:24 PM
Warlord

Quote:

Originally Posted by oyarde

Gold and silver are like guns and ammo . You need to get it before you need it .
03-25-2020, 03:05 PM
Krugminator2

Quote:

Originally Posted by Warlord

Remember this?

https://youtu.be/-6u1kG7yuy4
https://youtu.be/-6u1kG7yuy4

Who would you rather listen to? The morons on cable tv or Schiff?

I would never listen to any commentator for financial advice.

But Jim Cramer ran an extremely successful hedge fund. 24% after fees and 30% gross return. Jim Cramer was a legit trader. Peter Schiff is an underperforming gold salesman with dog shit mutual funds. These are facts. Not opinions. Peter Schiff is a bad money manager. Jim Cramer wildly successful.
03-25-2020, 04:29 PM
Madison320

Quote:

Originally Posted by acptulsa

Agreed. But once again, there's still no fixing the date. That's the handy thing about this crisis. The "money" can have no velocity while we're all sitting at home cowering with our thumbs up our asses.

Either that or Bezos will wind up with all of it while commercial real estate crashes.

I agree. I don't really know how long it takes for printed money to show up in prices.

Keynesians see printing (in 2009-2015) that only caused asset prices to rise and conclude that printing no longer causes price inflation. (Yay! We can all retire!)

I see printing that only caused asset prices to rise and conclude that there must be some other factors temporarily limiting the inflation to assets.

I don't suddenly conclude 1+1<>2 just because I made an observation.
03-25-2020, 04:53 PM
AZJoe

A few $trillion here and a few $trillion there and pretty soon you are talking about real money.
03-25-2020, 05:26 PM
Brian4Liberty

Let’s all ignore the huge moral hazard of these bailouts. Some GOP Congress people have been talking about the bad incentive of increased unemployment insurance payments. “OMG! It will incentivize people to not go to work and sit around collecting UI!”

Yet they are completely blind to the incentives to big business (too big to fail). They can engage in short sighted business decisions, use cash to purchase stock instead of preparing for a rainy day. Give themselves big bonuses, and never have to worry about taking any actions during an emergency, because government will bail them out. Could they take some steps to generate revenue, reduce costs, or get creative with finances? Why bother?! They are too big to fail! Wait for government to steal from the poor and give to the rich.

Who has an incentive to sit on their asses again?

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