Kyle Bass' 5 Reasons Why The Japanese Government Bond Market Will Collapse by 2016
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HtEw2...ature=youtu.be
Kyle Bass' 5 Reasons Why The Japanese Government Bond Market Will Collapse by 2016
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HtEw2...ature=youtu.be
How can we profit from this? CDS seem to be the most profitable, but those generally aren't available to us. Anyone know much about iTraxx, or any other way we can get in on the action?
Shorting the yen while generally a good idea relies too much on timing I think. Lot of risk if you go in too soon. I also think the returns would be bigger with a CDS
I haven't heard of this guy before. Is he a libertarian?
Also, +rep to the first person who can post me an amusing picture of an adult diaper fashion show
Well, I'm not really sure what would be considered "amusing" in this context ... but I'll give it a shot:
http://f00.inventorspot.com/images/J...ers.xlarge.jpg http://www.foxnews.com/images/442399..._diapers02.jpg
http://img.allvoices.com/thumbs/even...ult-diaper.jpg
He's telling the truth but at the same time.... Japan is in the "too big to fail" group.
Can isolate Greece by spending 10 years building a firewall around it.
But Japan? no.
The rest of the world might as well start the Japanese bailout right now. That would be almost as big as letting the entire Eurozone fail all at one time.
...
To those who view an imminent collapse of the US Bond market - take note.
One of the smartest and well spoken humans on this planet doesn't even view Japans bond market collapse as imminent. 2016.
Japan is, structurally, a catastrophe when compared to the US and it's structural issues. The US may be in rough shape but it is in WAY better shape than Japan.
I saw an interview with Kyle Bass (from Oct 2012) stating that he thought the major cracks in the Japanese bond market would surface in 2013 - but COLLAPSE may not occur until 2016. I'm inclined to agree.
Japan/UK/USA - these are HUGE countries, effectively, superpowers...these sort of things take a lot of time to ferment.
Japan is FIRST in the collapse.
When I say collapse...I do not mean just the collapse of an aspect of it's credit markets...I mean the entire way that it is structured as an economy.
Japan will go down BEFORE the US.
Relative to the other sinking ships, the US (it's dollar and bond markets) are likely to sink the LEAST quickly.
Saved to watch for later when I have time.
great video. + rep. Im gonna look up more from this guy.
Found someone post a response video to this. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QWmOmt1zJ7Y
Im gonna watch it in a bit see if the guy knows what hes talking about.
Another great video from kyle Bass. Hes definately one of us. Talks about Europe more:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-quUyId2WZ0
Quote:
Japan will go down BEFORE the US.
I don't think Japan can go down without taking everyone with them.
So it's bail out time. Whether the Fed has to do it or Europe or whatever. Probably the Fed since Europe bank has no actual power.
Not sure about that, Japans debt is all internally held where as USA a large portion is external held. They have more control over it than the US. The only thing going for the US is the reserve currency of the world which is quickly being rejected for trade between countries.
Well the USDJPY has exploded as of recent. By the chart, it looks like this is the biggest move in 5 years. Something could be brewing, especially as prime minister abe has effectively taken over the central bank.
Edit: Holy Crap, Look at how cheap the fx options are? You can purchase put options on yen for next to nothing.
Kyle Bass goes over this in depth.
Japan's demographics are AWEFUL. As stated, they now sell more ADULT diapers then child diapers. That is a fact. A very, very destabilizing fact.
These "savers" are now offloading their saved money because they are into retirement and there are now fewer participants entering 1) the socialized security systems 2) the bond/savings market.
Japan cannot hold a candle to the US from a standpoint of long standing viability. And that is saying something as the US appears to be dying of gangrenous infection. Japan CANNOT save it's current structure. It's not impropable, it's impossible.
The US faces IMPROBABLE odds of returning itself to a strong structure (social and economic).
Japans radical restructuring is imminent and unavoidable.
This is not a doomsday prediction, that's not my MO. Merely pointing out that the gravy train is over. A return to a healthy social and economic environment will take a 20-30 year restructuring with the most difficult years beginning NOW.
I watched his vid and while I totally disagree with his views - he is right on many levels as to what has happened and may happen in the short term. long-term it's game over once they lose control - but they are still in control and most everything that should have happened - hasn't. wouldn't you agree? guess that's what a die-hard Kensyan looks like.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JUc8-GUC1hY
from december 2012