US may soon become world's top oil producer

http://enews.earthlink.net/article/t...d-8d1be56cf8a9

Since we are the biggest consumer, we are still a very long ways from energy independence- we import some 42% of what we use- consumption is 18.7 million barrels a day vs producing 10.9 million barrels.

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JONATHAN FAHEY
From Associated Press
October 23, 2012 2:19 PM EDT
NEW YORK (AP) — U.S. oil output is surging so fast that the United States could soon overtake Saudi Arabia as the world's biggest producer.

Driven by high prices and new drilling methods, U.S. production of crude and other liquid hydrocarbons is on track to rise 7 percent this year to an average of 10.9 million barrels per day. This will be the fourth straight year of crude increases and the biggest single-year gain since 1951.

The boom has surprised even the experts.

"Five years ago, if I or anyone had predicted today's production growth, people would have thought we were crazy," says Jim Burkhard, head of oil markets research at IHS CERA, an energy consulting firm.

The Energy Department forecasts that U.S. production of crude and other liquid hydrocarbons, which includes biofuels, will average 11.4 million barrels per day next year. That would be a record for the U.S. and just below Saudi Arabia's output of 11.6 million barrels. Citibank forecasts U.S. production could reach 13 million to 15 million barrels per day by 2020, helping to make North America "the new Middle East."

The last year the U.S. was the world's largest producer was 2002, after the Saudis drastically cut production because of low oil prices in the aftermath of 9/11. Since then, the Saudis and the Russians have been the world leaders.

The United States will still need to import lots of oil in the years ahead. Americans use 18.7 million barrels per day. But thanks to the growth in domestic production and the improving fuel efficiency of the nation's cars and trucks, imports could fall by half by the end of the decade.

The increase in production hasn't translated to cheaper gasoline at the pump, and prices are expected to stay relatively high for the next few years because of growing demand for oil in developing nations and political instability in the Middle East and North Africa.

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More at link.

We used to import for strategic reasons--we wanted to hold our own oil in reserve, in case we needed it to defend ourselves, and use up everyone else's. Now we have to use our own because we've monkeyed so hard with everyone who has oil, we can't get at the oil fields because of our own minefields...

Yippee! We can be like Iran! We can export our oil to make money, and then, well, we won't have any oil here, but we can build nuclear power plants! Oh wait, that's not good either.

Overseas oil has the primary objective of fueling the overseas military adventures. Nothing less, nothing more. As the US military is forced to collapse back inward towards mainland USA - the need for overseas oil lines will, with it, also retrace.

We would have to nearly double our current production before we become self- sufficient.

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Originally Posted by Zippyjuan

We would have to nearly double our current production before we become self- sufficient.

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That's only one variable in the equation. Our consumption could decrease.

Could happen but we have wrung quite a bit out of the system in terms of making things more efficient and using less. The most dramatic change in consumption occured after the Arab Oil Embargo in the 1970's. There was a serious drop in consumption and also a significant increase in mileage for automobiles (the #1 use for oil- gas was so cheap nobody cared about mileage until then). The US did not top our peak consumption from the 1970's until the last decade (and I am talking total consumption- not just per-capita- our population has grown by 30% since then too). We must also bear in mind that while we are currently the biggest user, we are certainly not the only users. China and India will demand more as they grow.

http://www.peak-oil-crisis.com/OilCo...COTD200106.gif
http://mobjectivist.blogspot.com/200...1_archive.html

What we use one barrel of oil for (total is 44 gallons from 42 gallon barrel due to additives to some products)- we use about 20 million a day:

http://abcnews.go.com/Business/PainA...4353789&page=1

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A barrel of oil contains 42 gallons of crude. During the refining process, additives increase the "refined yield" of the barrel. In the end, about 44 gallons of various products are produced from each barrel.

Here is a breakdown of what that oil creates:

22.6 gallons of gasoline — enough to drive 622 miles in the average American car

6.7 gallons of diesel — enough to drive 41.7 miles in a tractor-trailer

5.5 gallons of jet fuel — not enough to fly a fully loaded 747 one mile. You'll get about 0.95 miles

2.4 gallons of "still gas," a mixture of gas produced in refineries


2.2 gallons of "marketable coke," a residue used in the production of aluminum anodes, furnace electrodes and liners and shaped graphite products

1.5 gallons of fuel oil, often used for heating or for fueling locomotives, ships and for power generation systems

1.2 gallons of liquefied gas, which is used in heating appliances and vehicles, and increasingly replacing chlorofluorocarbons as an aerosol propellant and a refrigerant

0.8 gallons of asphalt



0.4 gallons of lubricants, often placed in greases

0.7 gallons of other products

Real items made from the barrel:

4 pounds of charcoal briquettes

12 cylinders of propane

170 wax birthday candles

A quart of motor oil

Petrochemicals used in the productions of all kinds of pharmaceuticals, plastics, cosmetics and foodstuffs.

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World's top crude oil producer, are any of you actually oil geologists.

America imports petroleum because Texas is in decline of the cheap stuff for the past forty years. Try reading Richard Heinberg's The Party's over - Oil, war and the Fate of Industrial societies, or Micheal T Klaire's books, his most recent is "The race for what's left" published this year. Radio interview https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kUFyShC0-20

You can alternatively watch some of his interviews, there are a number of them, some years old, a few this year or so. You should even give a watch of the Blood and Oil film. Watch it on youtube.

Fear mongering.

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Originally Posted by Republicanguy

World's top crude oil producer, are any of you actually oil geologists.

America imports petroleum because Texas is in decline of the cheap stuff for the past forty years. Try reading Richard Heinberg's The Party's over - Oil, war and the Fate of Industrial societies, or Micheal T Klaire's books, his most recent is "The race for what's left" published this year. Radio interview https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kUFyShC0-20

You can alternatively watch some of his interviews, there are a number of them, some years old, a few this year or so. You should even give a watch of the Blood and Oil film. Watch it on youtube.

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The Earth has enough energy to supply all the needs of humanity for thousands of years.

The problem is not the amount of energy available; the problem is government interference in the energy industry.

The answer is to get government out of the way.

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Art Robinson - Common Sense

For example, American coal, oil, natural gas, and methane clathrate resources are vast. These four forms of hydrocarbon energy are industrially inter-convertible, so we can use the least expensive to produce the more expensive. There are today industrial plants converting coal to oil as the Germans did during World War II, and plants converting natural gas into oil. Methane clathrates (natural gas in special forms of ice in the ocean) are so abundant that they exceed all oil, coal, and natural gas combined. Methods of recovering methane from clathrates are just being developed. Our hydrocarbon natural resources are essentially inexhaustible.

Likewise, our uranium and thorium reserves can fuel our nuclear power industry for thousands of years. Wind, sun, and hydroelectric resources are also extensive. We only need to use those technologies that are most practical and economical – a choice that can best and most wisely be made by free people competing and using their talents and abilities, and certainly not by Washington politicians.

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The answer to food, farm, and water shortage is using wise technology. Aquaponics is just one of many promising technologies. Legalize industrial hemp is another.

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production of crude and other liquid hydrocarbons

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They are combining apples and oranges to cause a stir. As of 2011 the US was only producing about 5.6m barrels of crude per day. The other liquid hydrocarbons are propanes, butanes, pentanes and heavier products extracted from the gas flowstream. This is where the increase is occuring. Knowing exactly what these other liquid hydrocarbons are and how they can be used would tell the whole story.

Some people on this board amaze me on how little is known of Energy.

So typical of people who deny, oh the future is so bright and wonderful. The ramblings of a deluded mind!

How many of you do actually read books on this subject? Freedom = madness! That is all I get from viewing so many threads. To be fair it's a good thing, but denying and giving an answer for everything is intellectually disingenuous and wrong.

We are facing serious problems, and any American leader must and does accept that.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UFIyUI0rrUA

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Originally Posted by Republicanguy

Some people on this board amaze me on how little is known of Energy.

So typical of people who deny, oh the future is so bright and wonderful. The ramblings of a deluded mind!

How many of you do actually read books on this subject? Freedom = madness! That is all I get from viewing so many threads. To be fair it's a good thing, but denying and giving an answer for everything is intellectually disingenuous and wrong.

We are facing serious problems, and any American leader must and does accept that.

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There is a lot of propaganda being promoted... that's for sure. Getting government regulations out of the way of energy producers would be a step forward. Just legalizing industrial hemp will help by reducing pollution, waste, and improving on the quality of products. It is a great green plant that is still illegal to grow in America. Like I wrote in a couple of posts back, there is enough energy to last thousands of years. People simply need to be allowed to pursue the energy alternatives. Get government out of the way.

I read Art Robinson's - "Common Sense" He tells it like it is.

The root cause of the energy source such as renewables like Wind turbines, solar is still petroleum, not anything else.

Oil is the source of modern society, you cannot just invent free energy, as Richard Heinberg explains in The Party's over book, it would be delusion to think that humanity can sum up energy as it was a leaf on a tree branch. I believe people some here are deluded and are complacent about this subject. Somehow the free market and the lack of government inteference will solve all of this.

He also states it would be a bad idea if free energy did exist, it would delude humanity into over population. Everything in reality has limits, that isn't propaganda, perhaps my bringing up of this subject leaves people feeling annoyed or uncertain about their future if we really do face a crisis. As a socialist, yes government doesn't have all the answers, and probably shouldn't. But certain topics do tend to require government more than ever, despite special interest, or broken deals.

When Ron Paul said months ago, that he didn't have all the answers, people didn't want to hear that. They want to know that government will do something, not the free market will take care of it all. Obama's plan is to have one million electric vehicles on the road by 2015. Though that all requires capital and resources, the chinese and the Indians are going bonkers for resources especially the Chinese. Western countries are buying up fertile land for growing food in poor countries.

If Heinberg or Klare's premonitions are not taken seriously whether a statist or more individualist approach is the solution we are in for a ride.

I personally feel that I should vote for the Green party at the next Uk election.

How about we let the dinosaurs keep their oil, and their oil economy, and let the rest of us move forward with technology. Let's get government out of the way. Legalize competing currencies, industrial hemp, and energy exploration.

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Art Robinson - Common Sense

It is our manufacturing industries – from steel in the Northeast to lumber in the Northwest – that form the foundation of our economy. We have plenty of natural resources for our industries. he natural resources of the United States are so vast in every category that we could not even begin to exhaust them in a thousand years.

For example, American coal, oil, natural gas, and methane clathrate resources are vast. hese four forms of hydrocarbon energy are industrially inter-convertible, so we can use the least expensive to produce the more expensive. here are today industrial plants converting coal to oil as the Germans did during World War II, and plants converting natural gas into oil.

Methane clathrates (natural gas in special forms of ice in the ocean) are so abundant that they exceed all oil, coal, and natural gas combined. Methods of recovering methane from clathrates are just being developed. Our hydrocarbon natural resources are essentially inexhaustible.

Likewise, our uranium and thorium reserves can fuel our nuclear power industry for thousands of years. Wind, sun, and hydroelectric resources are also extensive. We only need to use those technologies that are most practical and economical – a choice that can best and most wisely be made by free people competing and using their talents and abilities, and certainly not by Washington politicians.

Yet our energy industry, hobbled by the tentacles of big government, cannot now even supply our own needs. We have been importing 30% of our energy. With our economy in a slump, it is now 20%.

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You don't seem to of taken onboard what I've said, how can you invent new sources of energy when it's crude oil and natural gas, coal that has given our modern way of life. What other source of energy is going to give us the modern life we all have in the western world. Why do you think the Bush administration put forward the plan to go to the Moon. Helium 3 was the answer to that. Though there won't be a fussion reactor for fifty years.

Some people on PeakOil forums, believe Ron Paul is living in 1912. Or at least purpetuates the idea of what government was then and not up to the challenges of this century.

Convincing and changing society is no easy task. Nobody wants to sacrifice anything.

There are many different potential sources of energy but no single one offers the diversity of uses we get from petroluem and their costs are higher or even signficantly higher than what we currently pay for oil. We can use other things but we don't because they cost more. As oil becomes more scarce and more expensive then other alternatives become more attractive.

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Originally Posted by Zippyjuan

There are many different potential sources of energy but no single one offers the diversity of uses we get from petroluem and their costs are higher or even signficantly higher than what we currently pay for oil. We can use other things but we don't because they cost more. As oil becomes more scarce and more expensive then other alternatives become more attractive.

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"THORIUM: Energy Cheaper Than Coal" by Robert Hargraves

THORIUM: energy cheaper than coal advocates lowering costs for clean energy – a market-based environmental solution.


And legalizing industrial hemp along with competing currencies is free.

Peak oil, LMAO....

Ya know, if I had a product everyone wanted, I'd probably want them to think it's running out too.

Peak oil as meaing oil suddenly running out is untrue. But what is true is that consumption is running at a higher rate than new supplies are being discovered (about 83 million barrels a day or 30 billion a year http://www.nationmaster.com/graph/en...il-consumption) and that the costs of getting each additional barrel of oil gets progressively higher- more expensive so prices will continue to go up in the future. Cheap, easy to get at oil IS going to run out. All oil fields eventually hit a peak after which their output declines. And also to note is that one by one the nations which used to be net exporters of oil is shrinking as they become net importers. The US used to be the biggest exporter in the world- we are now the biggest importer. The UK went from exporter to importer in the last 20 years. Mexico and Iraq are on the verge of having their domestic consumption surpass their domestic production. Indonesia switched from an exporter to an importer.

Throium is an interesting prospect though I am skeptical when somebody claims about how cheap and clean a new energy source may be- nuclear energy was supposed to be able to provide unlimited practically free energy as well. Thrium does produce radiation though not as much as uranium or plutonium plants (thorium can produce uranium).

Peak oil means running out of the cheap easy oil in the ground, closest to the surface of the Earth.

Petroleum is used for everything. Republican congressman of Maryland Roscoe Bartlett talks about Peak oil - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7lwkyqFB-34

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Originally Posted by TonySutton

They are combining apples and oranges to cause a stir. As of 2011 the US was only producing about 5.6m barrels of crude per day. The other liquid hydrocarbons are propanes, butanes, pentanes and heavier products extracted from the gas flowstream. This is where the increase is occuring. Knowing exactly what these other liquid hydrocarbons are and how they can be used would tell the whole story.

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This. Crude is where the money is. The rest is just a bonus.

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In the 8,000 years from the beginning of history to the year 2000 A.D. world population will have grown from 10 million to 4 billion, with 90% of that growth taking place during the last 5% of that period, in 400 years. It took the first 3,000 years of recorded history to accomplish the first doubling of population, 100 years for the last doubling, but the next doubling will require only 50 years. Calculations give us the astonishing estimate that one out of every 20 human beings born into this world is alive today.

The rapidity of population growth has not given us enough time to readjust our thinking. Not much more than a century ago our country � the very spot on which I now stand was a wilderness in which a pioneer could find complete freedom from men and from government. If things became too crowded - if he saw his neighbor's chimney smoke - he could, and often did, pack up and move west. We began life in 1776 as a nation of less than four million people - spread over a vast continent - with seemingly inexhaustible riches of nature all about. We conserved what was scarce - human labor - and squandered what seemed abundant - natural resources - and we are still doing the same today.

Much of the wilderness which nurtured what is most dynamic in the American character has now been buried under cities, factories and suburban developments where each picture window looks out on nothing more inspiring than the neighbor's back yard with the smoke of his fire in the wire basket clearly visible.

Life in crowded communities cannot be the same as life on the frontier. We are no longer free, as was the pioneer - to work for our own immediate needs regardless of the future. We are no longer as independent of men and of government as were Americans two or three generations ago. An ever larger share of what we earn must go to solve problems caused by crowded living - bigger governments; bigger city, state, and federal budgets to pay for more public services. Merely to supply us with enough water and to carry away our waste products becomes more difficult and expansive daily. More laws and law enforcement agencies are needed to regulate human relations in urban industrial communities and on crowded highways than in the America of Thomas Jefferson.

Certainly no one likes taxes, but we must become reconciled to larger taxes in the larger America of tomorrow.

I suggest that this is a good time to think soberly about our responsibilities to our descendents - those who will ring out the Fossil Fuel Age. Our greatest responsibility, as parents and as citizens, is to give America's youngsters the best possible education. We need the best teachers and enough of them to prepare our young people for a future immeasurably more complex than the present, and calling for ever larger numbers of competent and highly trained men and women. This means that we must not delay building more schools, colleges, and playgrounds. It means that we must reconcile ourselves to continuing higher taxes to build up and maintain at decent salaries a greatly enlarged corps of much better trained teachers, even at the cost of denying ourselves such momentary pleasures as buying a bigger new car, or a TV set, or household gadget. We should find - I believe - that these small self-denials would be far more than offset by the benefits they would buy for tomorrow's America. We might even - if we wanted - give a break to these youngsters by cutting fuel and metal consumption a little here and there so as to provide a safer margin for the necessary adjustments which eventually must be made in a world without fossil fuels.

One final thought I should like to leave with you. High-energy consumption has always been a prerequisite of political power. The tendency is for political power to be concentrated in an ever-smaller number of countries. Ultimately, the nation which control - the largest energy resources will become dominant. If we give thought to the problem of energy resources, if we act wisely and in time to conserve what we have and prepare well for necessary future changes, we shall insure this dominant position for our own country.

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Admiral Hyman Rickover.

http://www.energybulletin.net/storie...delivered-1957