Housing Recovery: Housing Starts at 4-Year High

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11-20-2012, 08:18 AM
Jordan

Housing Recovery: Housing Starts at 4-Year High

Quote:

Starts rose 3.6 percent to a 894,000 annual rate, the fastest since July 2008 and exceeding all estimates in a Bloomberg survey, Commerce Department figures showed today in Washington. The median estimate of 82 economists called for starts to fall to a 840,000 pace. Building permits, a proxy for future construction, eased after surging the previous month.

“Housing is absolutely going in the right direction,” said Harm Bandholz, chief U.S. economist at UniCredit Group in New York, who projected 870,000 starts at an annual rate. “Excess supply has been wound down and there’s a steady increase in demand. That’s good for construction.”

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-1...year-high.html

Banks can't keep up with all the good news in housing, either:

Quote:

U.S. banks that have been earning record profits from home loans are adding or transferring thousands of staff to catch up with demand for refinancing after shortages blocked homeowners from getting lower rates.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-1...year-high.html
11-20-2012, 08:21 AM
tod evans

Boots on the ground calling bullshit!

I haven't seen any type of rebound here in the sticks..
11-20-2012, 08:22 AM
angelatc

Michigan isn't average, but the supply here is anything but depleted. My husband and I can spot abandoned homes before they're listed.
11-20-2012, 08:23 AM
Jordan

Quote:

Originally Posted by tod evans

Boots on the ground calling bullshit!

I haven't seen any type of rebound here in the sticks..

Housing is local. Sorry to hear your area is weak.
11-20-2012, 08:24 AM
Jordan

Quote:

Originally Posted by angelatc

Michigan isn't average, but the supply here is anything but depleted. My husband and I can spot abandoned homes before they're listed.

Shame - you guys have the best summer weather the world has ever seen.
11-20-2012, 09:56 AM
BAllen

Quote:

Originally Posted by tod evans

Boots on the ground calling bullshit!

I haven't seen any type of rebound here in the sticks..

What they're not telling is how many wind up in foreclosure. Someone needs to tell them the sham election is over. They can stop lying now.
11-20-2012, 10:19 AM
angelatc

Quote:

Originally Posted by Jordan

Shame - you guys have the best summer weather the world has ever seen.

Indeed. If I had more money, I'd buy more homes. Every week I see one for around $50,000 that I would love to add to a portfolio.
11-20-2012, 10:20 AM
jclay2

Quote:

U.S. banks that have been earning record profits from home loans are adding or transferring thousands of staff to catch up with demand for refinancing after shortages blocked homeowners from getting lower rates.

This time is different! Certainly, there is no chance that a fed induced housing bubble will result in tears!! I guess I am feeding the troll, but someone needs to respond to your nonsense. Seriously, this is the third or fourth thread you have posted without once mentioning the federal reserve or falsified government economic numbers. This is a full blown ponzi at work. Don't get caught on the wrong side, when the ponzi reverses itself.
11-20-2012, 11:22 AM
oyarde

Bank stocks have been sliding and they have been laying people off .
11-20-2012, 11:35 AM
Brian4Liberty

And what is the Federal Reserve going to do with all of the mortgages they are buying from JP Sachs with QE-Infinity money?
11-20-2012, 11:37 AM
oyarde

Quote:

Originally Posted by Brian4Liberty

And what is the Federal Reserve going to do with all of the mortgages they are buying from JP Sachs with QE-Infinity money?

I have been wondering about that....
11-20-2012, 11:57 AM
Brian4Liberty

Quote:

Originally Posted by oyarde

I have been wondering about that....

They may just hold them until the economy "recovers", which would be a long time. They could turn right around and sell them back to JP Sachs for pennies on the dollar. The last, and least likely scenario is that they could sell them at local auctions to the general public.

Any others?
11-20-2012, 12:03 PM
Jordan

@angelatc Smart move. So much depressed real estate out there despite cap rates kicking ass. I like the way you see this as an opportunity; rents are high and money is cheap!

@oyarde Investment banking and sales and trading jobs are not mortgage origination jobs.

@jclay2 Don't be so negative. It's bad for your blood pressure. Nothing but good to say about current fed policy. Never has it been easier to make a killing. Sometimes you gotta play the game. It's not too late to swap your bullion for cash flowing real estate.

@Brian4liberty Bernanke is a smart dude. I'm sure he'll hang on to those mortgages and enjoy the ride.
11-20-2012, 12:04 PM
Jordan

Fact is that the current batch of home buyers is coming from the best part of the pool; they're super creditworthy people who are putting down big money on down payments. Hard to call it a bubble! This.is all about credit quality and recovery, not lending standards or risky monetary policy.
11-20-2012, 12:07 PM
oyarde

Quote:

Originally Posted by Brian4Liberty

They may just hold them until the economy "recovers", which would be a long time. They could turn right around and sell them back to JP Sachs for pennies on the dollar. The last, and least likely scenario is that they could sell them at local auctions to the general public.

Any others?

I do not see any move but to hold them , but I doubt they realize how long that will require ...
11-20-2012, 12:10 PM
Brian4Liberty

Quote:

Originally Posted by Brian4Liberty

They may just hold them until the economy "recovers", which would be a long time. They could turn right around and sell them back to JP Sachs for pennies on the dollar. The last, and least likely scenario is that they could sell them at local auctions to the general public.

Any others?

Another option is that they could resurrect that Bill submitted by Chucky Schumer and some other Senator to sell the houses to foreigners, and include a free Visa as a bonus.
11-20-2012, 12:13 PM
oyarde

Quote:

Originally Posted by Brian4Liberty

Another option is that they could resurrect that Bill submitted by Chucky Schumer and some other Senator to sell the houses to foreigners, and include a free Visa as a bonus.

I figured they were already doing that and just not telling anyone.
11-20-2012, 12:16 PM
Brian4Liberty

Quote:

Originally Posted by oyarde

I figured they were already doing that and just not telling anyone.

IIRC, the proposal was more of a streamlining and expansion of the process.
11-20-2012, 12:51 PM
Zippyjuan

Also noted in the article:

Quote:

A separate report today from the Labor Department showed that payrolls increased in 35 states in October, while the unemployment rate dropped in 37, showing much of the job market is gaining traction.

California led the nation with a 45,800 advance in employment, followed by Texas with 36,600 more jobs. The jobless rate dropped the most in South Carolina, Alaska and Wisconsin.

Housing starts are the latest in a batch of data showing a pickup in momentum. An index of homebuilder sentiment rose to a six-year high this month, and sales of existing homes were stronger than forecast in October. Residential construction added 0.3 percentage point to third-quarter economic growth of 2 percent.

Quote:

Economists at Barclays Plc said in an e-mail that they raised their tracking estimate of the increase in fourth-quarter gross domestic product to 2.2 percent from 2 percent after today’s report.

I suspect that the Fed may hold onto their securities until they mature. The average time a mortgage is kept by a borrower is about ten years (that includes loans refinanced as well as those which get paid off). That is what they have been doing with their Treasuries.
11-20-2012, 01:09 PM
AmericasLastHope

Quote:

Originally Posted by Brian4Liberty

And what is the Federal Reserve going to do with all of the mortgages they are buying from JP Sachs with QE-Infinity money?

They will probably just sell them to foreigners in exchange for amnesty a la Spain: http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/stories...11-19-12-19-26