09-16-2016, 06:09 PM
Not to be argumentative, but I will eat my hat if Gary Johnson even gets half that (4%) nationally.
First, his base of support in the polls consists of the most unreliable voters (18-29). Secondly, the Libertarian Party's high-water mark in presidential elections is the 1.06% Ed Clark received in 1980, and Johnson himself failed to get even a full 1% in 2012.
Yeah, yeah, the polls. Third party candidates are notorious for how they never live up to the media or polling hype. It's a quadrennial thing: "Oh, this is the year of the third party, so-and-so non-D/R candidate is polling 10% nationally in this poll!" Then it just collapses, because no one has the guts to "waste" their vote on someone they know won't win. In presidential elections especially.
Trump-Clinton reminds me of Angle-Reid in Nevada in 2010, where everyone acted like the two major party candidates were so terrible we were going to see this big third party support. Nevada even has a quirk where you're literally allowed to vote "none of these candidates", but it only mustered 2% that year. It just never happens, outside of crazy exceptions (like Ross Perot and his money).