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    Today, 02:34 PM
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    Today, 11:51 AM
    http://community.dur.ac.uk/a.r.millard/genealogy/EdwardIIIDescent.php Mark Humphrys (amongst others) asks whether we can estimate the number of descendants of King Edward III. A slightly different but related question is the probability that a present-day English person descends from Edward III (1312-1377). This is my attempt to calculate this probability. First we can consider the number of ancestors that we have. Wachter (1978), in considering the number of ancestors at the time of the Norman conquest for a child born in England in 1947, suggested that in 1587 (13 generations at 30 years) the child would have 7938 ancestors, a figure that allows for some cousin-cousin marriages, based on the observation that Wachter himself had 63 rather than 64 ancestors six generations back. Smith (2001) has examined 626 birth-briefs at the Society of Genealogists, and reviewed other literature on cousin-cousin marriages, showing that although the rate is difficult to estimate, the estimates which can be considered reliable range from 0.28% to 0.86% of marriages. Over many generations, this would mean that on average the number of ancestors increased not twofold per generation, but between 1.9828 and 1.9944 per generation, leading to slightly lower estimates than Wachter's, of 7322 to 7899 ancestors at the 13th generation (and 14518 to 15753 at the 14th generation). Marriages between more distant cousins, also have an impact, but these are ignored here, following the original argument of Wachter. Wachter (1978) asserts, and Smith (2001) provides some limited evidence, that second cousin marriages are much less common than first cousin marriages, and third or more distant cousin marriages occur no more frequently than would be expected from the number of third, etc., cousins in the population. Third, etc., cousin marriages are therefore very rare. Sturges and Haggett (1987) estimated the average growth rate of the English population c.1350-c.1994 was 1.14 times per generation, implying 2.28 surviving children per couple. With an average 2.28 children per couple then on average each individual has 28 third-cousins, and less than 9000 tenth-cousins in a population of millions. Thus marriages between very distant cousins are more common, but not as common as first cousin marriages until one reaches about 12th cousins, which is more distant than is possible in the 13 generations considered here. Second, etc., cousin marriages also have less impact on the number of ancestors than first cousin marriages. The child of first cousins has 24 rather than 32 distinct 3x-great grandparents, but the child of second cousins has 28, and the child of third cousins has 30. It is therefore safe to follow Wachter in ignoring marriages between cousins other than first cousins, as including them is a lot of calculation which will only reduce the average number of ancestors in 1587 by a fraction of a percent, and this is probably within the margin of error derived from the uncertainty in the rate of first-cousin marriages. In line with Wachter we can assume "wide diffusion of ancestors throughout society and the country by 1600." Taking those numbers as a starting point, then if we knew the number of descendants of Edward III born in England in the 30-year generation centred on 1587, we could estimate the probability of at least one of them being one of those ancestors. Leo van de Pas in his website "Genealogics" gives as comprehensive a list of the descendants of Edward III as can probably be compiled at present. In the fifth generation he lists 321 descendants, of whom I count about 245 as 'English' (though distinguishing English from Welsh and Irish nobles in this list is difficult). This gives a rate of increase of 3.00 times in each generation within 'English' descendants or 3.17 per generation for all descendants. This is high in comparison to Sturges and Haggett's (1987) estimate of 2.28 surviving children per couple on average over...
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    04-27-2017, 10:06 PM
    I assume catfish tastes like chicken?
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    04-27-2017, 10:05 PM
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    04-27-2017, 02:17 PM
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    04-27-2017, 01:09 PM
    Neil deGrasse Tyson has released a new video aimed at a what he sees as a growing anti-intellectualism problem in the United States. It was released at the same time as the March for Science and many Earth Day demonstrations. He reflects on what he thinks made America great and what’s stalling progress today. Science used to be respected, but today, there is a growing crowd of science-deniers who threaten our “informed democracy.” The real anti-intellectual move, however, is conflating science, the scientific method, and truth to be one and the same. Fundamentally, science is any human attempt at discovering truth. What is true exists independently from what humans believe to be true or how humans arrive at truth claims. The scientific method, the process of using repeated experiments in an attempt to validate or falsify the conclusions of previous experiments, is but one way humans attempt to discover truth. The purpose of the video was to call out the obstinate, ignorant voters who deny what many regard as certain truths handed to them by a body of elite, trustworthy scientists. Yet Tyson and the marchers border on an equally dangerous view: scientism. Scientism isn’t scientificScientism is the over-reliance on or over-application of the scientific method. Scientism has many forms, one of which is the use of empirical methods to do economic science, or the dismissal of claims not based on experiment results that question other claims that are based on experiment results. Mises dealt with scientism repeatedly, and closely guarded the boundary between economics and other sciences. The scientific method is not universally appropriate. Consider an extreme case: if you measured a few right triangles and observed that the sides did not correspond to what the Pythagorean theorem says, would you toss the Pythagorean theorem, or would you reexamine your measurement method? Would you dismiss the logical geometric relation in favor of the scientific method? The scientific method is particularly suited for the natural sciences. It’s hard to recommend a different method than experimentation and observation to answer questions about chemical reactions, astrophysics, quantum mechanics, and biology. The scientific method is unnecessary or even ill-suited in other areas, however. Consider these questions, and what sort of approach is appropriate to answer them: What is 17 divided by 3? All else held equal, what are the effects of an increase in demand for blue jeans? Who should I invite to my party? What are the effects of expansionary monetary policy on employment, prices, incomes, production, consumption, and borrowing? How should I treat people? Of course, Neil deGrasse Tyson wouldn’t recommend using the scientific method to answer all of these questions (hopefully), but the point is that empiricism and experimentation are limited in their appropriate applications. The scientific method does not have a monopoly on truth. Always open to falsificationThe scientific method has another large limitation: conclusions derived solely by experimentation are always susceptible to falsification by just one aberrant observation. For this reason and others, even wide consensus among scientists should be met with at least some skepticism before the heavy hand of the government gets involved. In 1992, the government, backed by the scientific community, told you that you needed 6-11 daily servings of bread, cereal, rice, and/or pasta to maintain good nutrition (and that saturated and animal fats are to be avoided). Many government policies and public school food offerings were based on this recommendation, including, suspiciously, agricultural subsidies and import tariffs. But then, years later, new information revealed this to be terrible advice, after a big jump in diabetes diagnoses and obesity rates.
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    04-27-2017, 12:38 PM
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    04-27-2017, 12:26 PM
    Maybe if we run for the hills and the pine forests and live like hitchhikers the situation will resolve itself
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    04-27-2017, 11:27 AM
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    04-27-2017, 04:33 AM
    HitoKichi replied to a thread I'm worried... in Open Discussion
    Dio threw a steam roller at him
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    04-26-2017, 07:55 PM
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    04-26-2017, 04:30 PM
    Because nobody can decide your needs for you especially the government and assuming that leads to breadlines and malnourishment. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Collectivization_in_the_Soviet_Union
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    04-26-2017, 04:23 PM
    That's just the trend with most of the red states. Not that having having voted for Trump is a good thing but the states he did well in would be more bearable to live in assuming that they declared themselves independent.
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    04-26-2017, 04:03 PM
    http://sawte.com/
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    04-26-2017, 03:52 PM
    A state that votesd for Trump would have lower taxes and fewer gun restriction laws
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    04-26-2017, 08:41 AM
    The guy was accused of being a pedophile
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    04-25-2017, 04:57 PM
    Keemstar And “Sir” Tony Ray: Internet Mob Mentality On Saturday a post titled “Keemstar’s Drama Alert makes a 62 year old man cry” hit the front page of Reddit. Keemstar is a YouTube celebrity, who hosts a show called “Drama Alert.” The show centers on Keemstar talking about the personal lives and drama of YouTube celebrities. Recently, Drama Alert’s popularity exploded, with their recent exposure on pedophiles in the YouTube Minecraft community, specifically LionMaker.This video, created by Scarce, told a disturbing story. On Saturday, Keemstar had uploaded a video called “Runecape Sex Offender Returns” that a man called John Phillips, a convicted pedophile who used Runescape to try to have sex with teenagers online, had been released from jail and was now streaming on Twitch, a popular video streaming service.Turns out that the man Keemstar was talking about was still in jail, and the man streaming was someone else entirely. ‘Sir” Tony Ray is a 62 year old man who does nothing but stream Runescape. He has been streaming for 12 hours a day, for about a month. He would regularly interact with the few viewers he had, and would just spend time enjoying the game.The internet went insane, grabbing every pitchfork and racial epithet they could find, and headed straight for this guy’s stream. No way are we going to let this pedophile stick around! They bombarded him with hate on his Twitch stream, his Twitter, and his YouTube page. Eventually Drama Alert realized that they had made a mistake and took down the wrongful video, and issued an apology.Tony, after dealing with all this hate, starts to break down on stream. He says, while crying: “Now everyone in the world knows my real name is Tony Ray Winchester, I’m 62, I’m retired, I haven’t got my first social security check yet, but I’ll get it soon… I’m not going to let someone run me off… but you guys know I’m a good guy now, so I’m going to go take a break.” You May Like The People Behind the Pixels
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    04-24-2017, 09:51 AM
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    04-24-2017, 09:41 AM
    https://archive.org/details/fav-w_dewils0n This might be helpful for coming up with good arguments
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    04-24-2017, 04:57 AM
    By Matt Agorist - April 21, 2017 On Thursday, John Podesta took to Twitter to post a link to a Washinton Post piece written by James Alefantis, the owner of the now famous Comet Ping Pong Pizzeria in Washington, D.C. In his Tweet, Podesta made the tasteless and terrible joke, while downplaying actual concern about the pedophilia and child trafficking that currently plagues the planet. Read more at http://thefreethoughtproject.com/john-podesta-just-tweeted-terrible-joke-pizza-internet-tore-new-one/#cRZMpRhyvA1ZmTzh.99
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    04-23-2017, 06:16 PM
    ScanlationFrom Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia Part of a series on Anime and manga
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    04-23-2017, 12:41 PM
    Just promote good books and pdfs that you think will be helpful in order to promote your cause.
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    04-23-2017, 12:38 PM
    Well judging by the state of Right Wing politics in Lebanon your going to have an easier time convincing people than say a country like India, Pakistan, China or Russia all of which have massive amounts of government intervention and promotion of military worship. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_political_parties_in_Lebanon
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    04-23-2017, 08:09 AM
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    04-22-2017, 06:57 PM
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    04-20-2017, 06:49 PM
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    04-20-2017, 01:45 PM
    GhassanidsFrom Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia "Ghassan" redirects here. For people with the given name Ghassan, see Ghassan (given name). Ghassanid Kingdom الغساسنة‎
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    04-19-2017, 03:47 PM
    Except it fails at that miserably compared to various educational foundations and think tanks such as the Mises Institute, FEE, Liberty Fund etc
    60 replies | 2119 view(s)
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    04-19-2017, 03:39 PM
    It was good wasn't it?
    60 replies | 2119 view(s)
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    04-19-2017, 01:38 PM
    The ministry of public pimps
    32 replies | 590 view(s)
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