• Krugminator2's Avatar
    Yesterday, 03:53 PM
    BWAHAHAHAHAHAHA. That thing about that is it is so politically incorrect but so true.
    17 replies | 381 view(s)
  • Krugminator2's Avatar
    Yesterday, 01:25 PM
    I really hated a lot of the George Mason/CATO people who undermined Ron Paul's campaign, especially in 2007. Tom would point out how absurd it was. Then Tom turned around and did the same thing to Rand in 2015. Tom is smart and articulate and he has a good podcast but he is also very cultish and tribal. I don't dislike him like I do Lew Rockwell but I can't say I am a huge fan either.
    17 replies | 270 view(s)
  • Krugminator2's Avatar
    11-18-2018, 12:21 PM
    It is funny to me that article explicitly says immigrants and minorities populating the state have been the reason the state votes Democrat. that should be non-controversial. But you have people like Zippy saying that Reagan was a moderate and GOP has just moved so far to the right that California now votes Democrat. And you have Reason claiming the reason for the shift is just that Republicans just started being mean to Mexicans in the 90s which caused them to vote Dem.
    27 replies | 450 view(s)
  • Krugminator2's Avatar
    11-17-2018, 07:05 PM
    https://reason.com/volokh/2018/11/17/american-civil-liberties-union-rip The ACLU has been consistently horrible on almost everything but flag burning and making sure Jesus isn't allowed on government property. Hopefully, libertarians abandon them completely as an ally.
    4 replies | 99 view(s)
  • Krugminator2's Avatar
    11-17-2018, 05:05 PM
    Keynes was EXTREMELY anti-inflation. "Lenin was certainly right. There is no subtler, no surer means of overturning the existing basis of society than to debauch the currency. The process engages all the hidden forces of economic law on the side of destruction, and does it in a manner which not one man in a million is able to diagnose. " Keynes was actually for pretty limited government. The problem with Keynes was that his ideas about government spending to boost and manage the economy don't work. The biggest problem with Keynes is people like Krugman and other "Keynesians" have tortured Keynes original ideas to promote all sorts of things that Keynes himself would never have approved. Keynes was a not a welfare statist for instance.
    9 replies | 1723 view(s)
  • Krugminator2's Avatar
    11-17-2018, 10:11 AM
    People in a free society deal with each other voluntarily. Individuals trade with other when it is mutually beneficial. The only way someone gains is if the other person also feels like they are getting a good deal. Sounds like a pretty fair way of doing things to me. How is what you are proposing fair? People voted democratically with their pocketbooks. You want to undo that and reward people like you who steal from everyone else. It is true what you are proposing is not "dog eat dog". It is anti-Darwinian. The weakest and laziest rise in your system and are held up as heroes for having a pulse. The successful are punished and plundered. The scorn that you have for the people who created the wealth that you can mooch off is an interesting part of human nature and it shows how corrupting handouts are to the recipient.
    80 replies | 906 view(s)
  • Krugminator2's Avatar
    11-13-2018, 04:31 PM
    Two years ago I was for open immigration. This kind of stuff makes me less in favor in Mexican immigration. I am not even sure on the straight economics of immigration anymore. The gains to economy are super small, a fraction of a percent of GDP per year and all those gains go to shareholders and management with clear losers. This Harvard labor economist makes a pretty solid logical, data driven case that low skill immigration hurts people with high school educations substantially. And as the economy becomes more automated, there really isn't a compelling case for more skill workers. He breaks down the numbers that are typically used in the media in favor of immigration. The economics of high levels of immigration are just not that great.
    29 replies | 438 view(s)
  • Krugminator2's Avatar
    11-12-2018, 09:05 PM
    I find it funny that their country is so poor that they are worried about $550 million in gold. The University of Texas endowment has $1 billion in gold in a vault. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-02-28/texas-endowment-to-review-1-billion-gold-position-new-ceo-says I also find it funny that people are semi defending the Venezuelan government. They should be worried. It is our business. Venezuela has stolen far more than $550 million from American businesses. They still owe Exxon $1.6 billion for stealing their oil business in Venezuela. The US government should take their gold from them as well as any other assets to make the American businesses whole. http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-exxon-venezuela-20141009-story.html ConocoPhllips is owed $2 billion. They have the right idea. Take what's theirs back. https://www.reuters.com/article/us-conocophillips-pdvsa/conoco-has-seized-venezuela-pdvsa-products-from-isla-refinery-curacao-idUSKCN1IE0Y8 "U.S. oil major ConocoPhillips (COP.N) has seized products belonging to Venezuelan state oil company PDVSA from the Isla refinery it runs on Curacao, an island official told Reuters on Sunday."
    14 replies | 250 view(s)
  • Krugminator2's Avatar
    11-12-2018, 02:27 PM
    I like it. If someone wants, they can ask their insane questions. But if they continue and keep bothering everyone, then it's on. You don't have the right to disturb events. If they resist and won't leave, that isn't consitutionally protected. The police or security have every right to fuck them up. I love watching that kid get tasered. He kept acting obnoxious. It didn't bother me when Trump said to knock the crap out of people disturbing his rallies.
    9 replies | 343 view(s)
  • Krugminator2's Avatar
    11-11-2018, 05:52 AM
    Clearly interest rates are a combination. But the idea that interest rates are as closely controlled like the Soviets controlled the price of bread is just wrong. Market forces, market sentiment and psychology, the economy are much bigger parts of what interest rates are at any given time. And what major thinker outside of Rothbard and a few anarchists think a perfectly free market in money is a good idea. Hayek always gets thrown around by Ron Paul for his competing currencies idea. But Hayek thought the Federal Reserve was a good idea and probably necessary. Mises was for a statist gold standard. Friedman was for eliminating the Federal Reserve but at the same time having the Treasury use a formula to control the money supply.
    66 replies | 2045 view(s)
  • Krugminator2's Avatar
    11-09-2018, 02:19 PM
    Politics are tribal. The way people will change views is if they have a niche view that a party caters to that causes that person to vote for that party. Those people will then accept the views of that party. For example evangelical Christians. Ronald Reagan won a lot of those people over to be Republicans and all of sudden those people accepted the Republican economic agenda, guns, foreign policy, etc. Grover Norquist is really big on this. Get gun owners, vapers, smokers, etc on your side and they accept the other stuff. A lot of blue collar workers are now voting Republican because of Trump so they will likely accept more of the Republican agenda by default. Unfortunately it works in reverse. I live in a suburban district, whose last elected Dem served one term in the 1960's, that just put a Dem in the House because of Trump. It will be interesting to see how permanent the Trump influence is.
    97 replies | 1153 view(s)
  • Krugminator2's Avatar
    11-07-2018, 10:10 PM
    That's a good question. He was super bearish the decade before the financial crisis and the decade after the crisis. There is basically only one way to be perpetually wrong and that is to be a permabear. He has such an anti-progress view of the world. He basically say the world is going to hell on every selloff. For example. https://www.cnbc.com/2015/08/25/peter-schiff-the-markets-pipe-dream-is-ending.html I just came across this gem when he was explaining why his managed accounts were down a zillion percent during the financial crisis he "predicted". "My actual forecast in my book "Crash Proof" was that the Dollar Index would fall to 40 (currently about 85), with a realistic worst case scenario, assuming " Current dollar index nine years later is ..... 96 https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/index/dxy/charts He was very certain QE 4 was happening and if didn't the economy would just collapse. Well.. Not so much Peter. Almost 4 years since QE 3 ended and well.... Lowest unemployment in history. https://www.cnbc.com/2015/03/17/forget-patience-qe4-is-coming-peter-schiff.html "I think without QE4, we will be back in recession," he said. "It's going to be horrible. There's going to be a worse financial crisis than 2008."
    7 replies | 282 view(s)
  • Krugminator2's Avatar
    11-07-2018, 08:45 PM
    Worth noting that bill did not repeal and replace Obamacare. Mike Lee was also a no. Also worth noting the half measure Republicans took just eliminating the individual mandate (which Rand did vote for) raised my premiums $600 next year.
    73 replies | 1174 view(s)
  • Krugminator2's Avatar
    11-06-2018, 10:00 PM
    Good argument to be made that the whole Kavanaugh stunt was a huge backfire for Dems. Probably going to lose every tight Senate race except WV. Manchin was the only Dem to vote for Kavanaugh and is going to hold his seat.
    292 replies | 6106 view(s)
  • Krugminator2's Avatar
    11-06-2018, 09:40 PM
    So looks like McCaskill is toast in Missouri. Repubs slight favorite to hold AZ. Probably lose Nevada. Pick up ND, Florida, Missouri, Indiana
    292 replies | 6106 view(s)
  • Krugminator2's Avatar
    11-06-2018, 08:55 PM
    RACIST RACIST RACIST BIGOT RACIST NAZI DUMB RACIST HOMOPHOBIC RACIST HATE'S WOMEN RACIST JUST LIKE HITLER
    292 replies | 6106 view(s)
  • Krugminator2's Avatar
    11-06-2018, 08:47 PM
    Warms my heart to see DeSantis win. I love the leftist shock that a guy who embraced Bernie Castro lost a state where a significant portion of the population got on rafts to flee a a guy like this.
    292 replies | 6106 view(s)
  • Krugminator2's Avatar
    11-05-2018, 06:53 PM
    You would think you would be more open minded then. I think I first heard this argument in like 2011 when I realized Peter Schiff was a gold salesman with a terrible track record of money management and not economist or trader. https://www.alt-m.org/2016/12/01/fed-holding-interest-rates/ Has the Fed been Holding Down Interest Rates? Let's see why kind of Keynesian socialist we have here. Hmmm.... George Selgin... *Uses Google* George Selgin
    66 replies | 2045 view(s)
  • Krugminator2's Avatar
    11-04-2018, 10:07 PM
    Yeah. I assume you are talking about overnight lending to each other. They have in Europe. They wouldn't do mortgages at negative rates. They would charge depositors a negative though.
    24 replies | 795 view(s)
  • Krugminator2's Avatar
    11-04-2018, 09:18 PM
    No. Same person. What I said is correct. What I said is not the Fed pushing rates up. It is the zero lower bound preventing rates from falling to a market clearing level.
    24 replies | 795 view(s)
  • Krugminator2's Avatar
    11-04-2018, 07:12 PM
    Not only did I not say the Fed was pushing rates artificially high, I explicitly responded to your post clarifying your initial wrong interpretation of what I said. Zero percent is a price floor. Rates should have been lower. That isn't the same thing as saying the Fed was pushing rates up. Ron Paul has been wrong about everything the last 10 years. No inflation. No skyrocketing gold prices. No stock market crash. No currency crisis. No Treasury bond bubble. All things he claimed. We live in the future. We can see Ron, Peter Schiff were wrong about EVERYTHING. There is nothing wrong with being wrong. There is a lot wrong about staying wrong. My view is the free market view. It is the view that any free market person who wonders why the Mises people were so horribly wrong would ultimately find themselves with after a little bit of investigating.
    24 replies | 795 view(s)
  • Krugminator2's Avatar
    11-04-2018, 09:04 AM
    Because people had a high demand to hold cash and were willing let inflation eat away at their money? Seems like the right answer.
    66 replies | 2045 view(s)
  • Krugminator2's Avatar
    11-03-2018, 05:40 PM
    Banks would still lend money at a positive rate. Overnight rates were near zero but mortgage rates were still 3% or so. Most people would prefer to put money in a bank at a small negative rate as opposed to having big sacks of cash at their homes. And the negative rates would encourage people to invest as opposed to putting money in the bank which would be the whole point of negative interest rates.
    66 replies | 2045 view(s)
  • Krugminator2's Avatar
    11-03-2018, 04:40 PM
    http://www.themoneyillusion.com/monetary-policy-and-interest-rates/
    66 replies | 2045 view(s)
  • Krugminator2's Avatar
    11-03-2018, 10:57 AM
    No. But pushing long term rates down through QE purchases did make stocks relatively more attractive. Also stocks are valued by discounting future cash flows. Low interest rates increase valuations. You are right. It isn't debatable. Rates were artificially high and that is true beyond a reasonable doubt. All you need is supply and demand graph to realize this. And I noticed answer to this riddle.
    66 replies | 2045 view(s)
  • Krugminator2's Avatar
    11-02-2018, 07:38 PM
    The Fed controls overnight rates and can influence longer term rates through QE. The Federal Reserve controls interest rates over the long run but not in the way you think. There is always this talk about artificially low interest rates. That would mean you believe there is a natural market rate of interest at any given time. Perfect. If rates are held artficially low, you will get overconsumption of debt, inflation and an overheating economy. Long term rates would go up because of future inflation expectations. We might now just be to that stage. But rates weren't artificially low for most of the last ten years. The Federal Reserve wasn't holding rates down. They were low because growth was slow and inflation was low which would lend credence to the idea that rates were artificially high for a large part of that time. Had the Federal Reserve made rates negative in 2008 and 2009, the economy likely would have gotten into expansion far quicker. If you are a free marketeer you believe in supply and demand and market clearing prices. Price floors prevent markets from clearing. Zero percent acted as a price floor just like minimum wages acted as a price floor and prevent labor markets from clearing. Extremely low rates are indicative of tight monetary policy not loose monetary. High rates are indicative of loose monetary policy. It is counterintuitive but clearly correct. Rates went much higher under Jimmy Carter but inflation kept going up. Rates stayed near zero after the financial crisis but there was no inflation.
    66 replies | 2045 view(s)
  • Krugminator2's Avatar
    11-02-2018, 06:52 AM
    The terrorism numbers are always skewed to make it look like right wing extremists are a larger group. Every racist who kills is a right wing terrorist. But if you are a black guy who shoots a cop like in Dallas a few years ago, they don't count that as left wing terrorism.
    8 replies | 410 view(s)
  • Krugminator2's Avatar
    11-01-2018, 04:11 PM
    Interest rates are not set by the government. Government can only steer the direction of rates through policy. But markets set interest rates and the central bank follows. The reason rates went to zero has nothing do with the Fed setting them artificially low. Rates were artificially high. The natural rate of interest was negative for much of the last decade. It is easy to see why that is case. If rates were artificially low, you would have inflation. Easy money = inflation. But you didn't have inflation. Had money been easy rates would have gone up. From the Heritage Foundation. No, the Federal Reserve Cannot Set Interest Rates https://www.dailysignal.com/2015/08/26/no-the-federal-reserve-cannot-set-interest-rates/
    107 replies | 3550 view(s)
  • Krugminator2's Avatar
    10-31-2018, 08:34 PM
    What's funny is I consider Silver's analysis of the Trump race the single most impressive thing he has done. Nate Silver kind of was right about Trump and Hillary. Trump barely won. Most models had Hillary at like 95%+. Silver got a ridiculous amount of heat for skewing the odds in Trumps direction. It turned out he knew what he doing. For example. here the criticism he got right before the election. Nate Silver Is Unskewing Polls — All Of Them — In Trump’s Direction https://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/nate-silver-election-forecast_us_581e1c33e4b0d9ce6fbc6f7f
    45 replies | 1406 view(s)
  • Krugminator2's Avatar
    10-31-2018, 07:23 PM
    I have no idea what interest rates should be. My best guess is the dollar will lose vs other currencies over the next 5 years. That's just a guess though. Maybe we will have massive price inflation. Then again, maybe we will have deflation. Nothing is more deflationary than popping asset bubbles. Where is the massive inflation in Japan? The bottom line is I don't think I know better than markets. And markets aren't predicting massive inflation. Simple question for you. Interest rates were zero during the Great Depression. Yet you had just the opposite policy of Bernanke. The money supply contracted by a third and you had price deflation. Bernanke printed a lot of money and interest rates were also zero. How can both of those be true in your version of things?
    107 replies | 3550 view(s)
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