• Krugminator2's Avatar
    11-11-2019, 08:18 PM
    Actually those blue lines aren't recessions. They haven't had a recession since 1990. https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2018/12/what-australia-knows-about-recessions/578482/ And the point Friedman is making isn't that recessions don't happen. They do. The point is there isn't some predictability like the sun coming up. Look at how many recession predictions Peter Schiff has made since 2009 based on Austrian Business Cycle. The other point of this data is that sustained economic growth isn't predictive of anything. Whereas a recession IS predictive of a recovery if you have enough liquidity in the system. This matches up with how stocks behave as well. Steep declines tend to have steep bounces. That is shown in a lot of quantified data. But strength in a stock can lead to a decline but just as often begets more strength.
    4 replies | 116 view(s)
  • Krugminator2's Avatar
    11-11-2019, 07:57 PM
    Right now? 10 years without a recession. Australia has gone decades without recession. The point of Friedman's idea is they are not predictable and they are temporary shocks. They aren't a predictable wavelike movement. He is also saying that booms don't lead to inevitable busts. You can have a boom that just slows down. Whereas if you have a steep bust, you will get a strong recovery as long as there isn't a major structural problem in banking.
    4 replies | 116 view(s)
  • Krugminator2's Avatar
    11-11-2019, 06:07 PM
    Also Robert Murphy response. https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2019-11-04/milton-friedman-s-plucking-theory-of-recessions-looks-right
    4 replies | 116 view(s)
  • Krugminator2's Avatar
    11-10-2019, 02:17 PM
    Strength of schedule computer rankings Ohio State - 5th toughest schedule this year. LSU - Toughest schedule in the country https://www.teamrankings.com/college-football/ranking/schedule-strength-by-other (This doesn't refute what you said. OSU plays PSU and Mich still)
    283 replies | 5402 view(s)
  • Krugminator2's Avatar
    11-10-2019, 09:12 AM
    Read it was 200k more than the rest of the six person field spent combined. And it doesn't include his official campaign contributions which were $1 million. He's never raised even close to 900k in an election cycle since after he first got in office. A little 600k for his first reelection cycle is next closest. Currently at $120k for 2020 https://www.opensecrets.org/members-of-congress/summary?cid=N00034041&cycle=2020&type=I
    89 replies | 2378 view(s)
  • Krugminator2's Avatar
    11-09-2019, 09:11 AM
    No. His wealth has zero to do with government. You completely made that up. He is a brilliant entrepreneur who built a way to deliver financial news faster and more efficiently to more people than anyone else. Being rich through entrepreneurship is a virtue not vice. Bloomberg has a lot bad stances on guns, green new deal, and legal drugs but he was a very competent mayor. I don't prefer him to Trump but he would probably be the least awful Dem. Even people like Judge Nap say he was a pretty decent mayor.
    28 replies | 376 view(s)
  • Krugminator2's Avatar
    11-08-2019, 09:31 PM
    Pretty amazing/not at all surprising you don't know this. How A College Kid May Have Helped Pick A Congressman https://www.npr.org/sections/itsallpolitics/2012/05/22/153342541/how-a-college-kid-may-have-helped-pick-a-congressman https://www.forbes.com/sites/jamespoulos/2012/05/23/a-college-millionaire-with-a-super-pac-shows-the-rich-dont-ruin-democracy/#1ed366ab1b53
    89 replies | 2378 view(s)
  • Krugminator2's Avatar
    11-08-2019, 06:44 PM
    There has been one other Congressmen in the last 100 years who vote like Massie and Amash. Ron Paul. And Massie and Amash just happened to win right after Ron Paul's presidential runs when there a lot of short term grassroots fever. I don't think that is a set of circumstances that arises often. Massie won a race because a kid got an inheritance and dumped into getting Massie elected. Not to mention Mike Lee and Rand Paul (Ron's son) got elected at the same time as well. Seems a little flukey.
    89 replies | 2378 view(s)
  • Krugminator2's Avatar
    11-07-2019, 07:26 PM
    Good point. The disproportionate number of immigrants who excel in STEM and entrepreneurship are a real drain on the culture. The toothless meth and opioid addicted real Americans are what give the country "culture" and make it great.
    40 replies | 390 view(s)
  • Krugminator2's Avatar
    11-07-2019, 07:18 PM
    Immigration socialists: I don't know if Ludwig von Mises, Albert Einstein, and Ayn Rand will assimilate. Better keep them out. They are taking all the genius jobs from mediocre American workers. The people who founded Google, eBay, Telsa, Intel and tons of other big companies that I can't think of off the top my head were founded by immigrants. "In fact, 40% of the Fortune 500 was founded by immigrants or the children of immigrants. " "Immigrants started 28.5% of all new businesses in 2014." https://www.inc.com/dustin-mckissen/study-shows-immigrants-are-more-than-twice-as-likely-to-become-entrepreneurs.html There is some middle ground on immigration. But keeping immigrants out for ten years is the kind of idea a 27 year who runs a blog that makes zero money and wants attention would come up with. Letting immigrants buy the right of entry just like they buy a house or college education is probably the best solution. They regulates immigration automatically based on the need in the economy. I don't even really understand the argument for keeping any immigrant with a STEM degree out. The reality is college educated immigrants are much smarter and more industrious.
    40 replies | 390 view(s)
  • Krugminator2's Avatar
    11-07-2019, 07:04 AM
    Those complaints have nothing to do with character or voting record. On actual issues, you don't get better than Amash. Ron isn't better. Amash is as good as it gets. It is near impossible to get people like Amash, Massie and Rand elected. And when they do, people complain endlessly about nothing. Not going to do better. They were fluke wins to begin with. Will certainly do much worse though when they are gone.
    89 replies | 2378 view(s)
  • Krugminator2's Avatar
    11-06-2019, 07:16 PM
    What embarrassments. The LP doesn't care about liberty. They just seek to destroy. Bevin pardoned a bunch of convicted of drug crimes and was a governor who signed on criminal justice reform. And he cut taxes overall. For example Gov. Matt Bevin pardons 11 who have paid 'required debt to society" https://www.courier-journal.com/story/news/politics/2018/07/06/kentucky-governor-matt-bevin-issues-11-pardons/762951002/ And Bevin did hike sales taxes all the while cutting income taxes and overall taxes. Gov. Bevin signs tax cut bill that will reduce state revenue by $106 million a year
    211 replies | 3129 view(s)
  • Krugminator2's Avatar
    11-06-2019, 06:22 PM
    Bevin had Republican primary that fractured the party too and was probably the ultimate reason he lost the general election. His primary challenger got 40% of the vote. The ultimate single reason Bevin lost was not getting the Republican. Period. Every other Republican cleaned up. When you smear a candidate in a primary it has a negative effect. All of these Republican commentators want good candidates. Glenn Beck spoke endlessly about Bevin when he ran against McConnell. But when these candidates win and then get a tough primaries down the road because they are unpopular for standing on principle, the commentators are nowhere to found. Tim Huelskamp had about a perfect conservative score and I remember not one mention of his primary he lost. Where were Levin and Beck defending Bevin this go around? The talk radio meatheads blather endlessly about principle and do nothing to defend principled people
    211 replies | 3129 view(s)
  • Krugminator2's Avatar
    11-06-2019, 11:57 AM
    So a libertarian magazine is libertarian and you are mad? You have a picture of an agrarian populist buffoon in your avatar.
    17 replies | 409 view(s)
  • Krugminator2's Avatar
    11-06-2019, 08:21 AM
    What is your point? What you are saying would be a stronger argument for LP voters to vote for Bevin. He lost for being principled. Being principled isn't popular. Should he have been less principled and less libertarian so LP voters would find him more appealing?
    211 replies | 3129 view(s)
  • Krugminator2's Avatar
    11-06-2019, 07:31 AM
    Do I think a person who voted LP has any argument in this race? No. They don't. I vote LP often. This would be a no-brainer race to vote Republican. Bevin was a good governor who earned total support from anyone self-identifying as libertarian. The LP ran candidates against Amash. They didn't have arguments either.
    211 replies | 3129 view(s)
  • Krugminator2's Avatar
    11-05-2019, 07:51 PM
    Bevin officially lost.
    211 replies | 3129 view(s)
  • Krugminator2's Avatar
    11-05-2019, 07:20 PM
    Yeah. I'll the other side of that bet. He's done.
    211 replies | 3129 view(s)
  • Krugminator2's Avatar
    11-05-2019, 07:02 PM
    Bevin now a big underdog. Big underperformance. Repubs are cleaning up in othervraces
    211 replies | 3129 view(s)
  • Krugminator2's Avatar
    11-05-2019, 06:54 PM
    What is he supposed to do? I want someone who will kick public sector union thugs in the mouth. Pensions and education are issues worth taking gloves off on. It might be unpopular but it is the right thing. There are some hills worth dying on. Reagan fell on the sword to beat inflation because he viewed as something he couldn't compromise on. Still got reelected.
    211 replies | 3129 view(s)
  • Krugminator2's Avatar
    11-05-2019, 06:07 PM
    Interesting seeing one of the most Ron Paulian Congressmen ever get trashed on a Ron Paul site.
    89 replies | 2378 view(s)
  • Krugminator2's Avatar
    11-05-2019, 05:33 PM
    It looks like exit polls not looking so great for Bevin. Edit: No exit polls. Just Bevin doing worse than any Republican in rural Kentucky of any Repub in the last decade. Edit 2: Bevin doing worse than other Republicans on the ballot. A lot of Repubs not voting for Bevin. Public sector workers want their free shit. Bevin is going to need a strong Republican win on the rest of the ballot to stay in office. Edit 3 Bevin just might hold on
    211 replies | 3129 view(s)
  • Krugminator2's Avatar
    11-05-2019, 04:24 PM
    Bevin a 2 to 1 favorite to be reelected as of right now. https://electionbettingodds.com/KY2019.html Not great odds but better than the coin flip I keep reading about.
    211 replies | 3129 view(s)
  • Krugminator2's Avatar
    11-05-2019, 02:00 PM
    Because he got something about epstein suicide trending on twitter last night. That was my expectation. Even though this seems like not such a huge revelation to me. apparently I am wrong. It is certainly getting coverage.
    18 replies | 362 view(s)
  • Krugminator2's Avatar
    11-05-2019, 12:18 PM
    I am not missing the point. I said he puts out worthwhile stuff. It NEVER lives up to the hype. This video clip was a good find but he still felt the need to basically lie about what he was putting out.
    18 replies | 362 view(s)
  • Krugminator2's Avatar
    11-05-2019, 08:13 AM
    Real "bombshell" he uncovered. He would have some credibility if he didn't overpromise and underdeliver every single time. He still gets worthwhile stuff, just at 1/20th of what he promises.
    18 replies | 362 view(s)
  • Krugminator2's Avatar
    11-03-2019, 11:48 AM
    Who is taking an $8 billion loss to be woke? Are you talking about Nike? Facebook? Google. It is funny all the arm chair people who think they know better than the most successful companies in the world. Scoreboard says otherwise.
    80 replies | 3308 view(s)
  • Krugminator2's Avatar
    11-02-2019, 07:27 PM
    SMU-Memphis a good game to watch right now. 23-17 at the half. Neither team plays defense.
    283 replies | 5402 view(s)
  • Krugminator2's Avatar
    11-02-2019, 07:10 PM
    Indiana plays a ridiculously soft schedule this year, so I am not a believer. That said, they could easily scare PSU or Umich.
    283 replies | 5402 view(s)
  • Krugminator2's Avatar
    11-01-2019, 10:01 PM
    I don't know what will happen but ton of indicators show the expected return of the market from this point is very low. From March preceding this run up. https://www.marketwatch.com/story/how-low-will-the-sp-500-go-buffett-and-shiller-know-2019-01-23 Doesn't mean buying panic won't continue to be a great strategy or there won't be a ton of opportunities. And it doesn't even mean just holding stocks aren't the best alternative. This time might also be different because of how low interest rates are. But I personally wouldn't feel holding a lump sum 100% long from this point is very good strategy. The likelihood is a lot of volatility and angst for not very much excess reward. And if there is a recession (which has a better than normal chance of happening) the market will correct for the recession.
    7 replies | 275 view(s)
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