• Krugminator2's Avatar
    Today, 06:38 AM
    I don't think anyone makes successful macro predictions based on theory or economic data. And yet Austrians makes those predictions constantly and act like their predictions should come to fruition with the regularity of the sun coming up. Their constant predictions are intertwined with school of thought. Mises made those predictions. I was just reading an old forum from the 90s where George Reisman was dooming. Robert Murphy makes those predictions. Here is he predicting double digit inflation even though nothing in markets indicated that would happen. https://www.econlib.org/archives/2016/01/i_win_my_inflat.html The Treasury market forecasted zero inflation for as far as the eye can see but Robert Krugman Murphy thinks markets are just arbitrary. Austrians constantly think they know better. The unfettered confidence in the face of constantly being wrong is very Trumpian. It is one thing not to think markets are perfectly efficient (which I of course do not, thankfully). It is another to completely ignore market signals. Market monetarism. It relies on market expectations and market reactions to form opinions. Not hunches. Not theories. Not opinions. The market's opinion is the only one that matters.
    12 replies | 568 view(s)
  • Krugminator2's Avatar
    Today, 06:14 AM
    No. They weren't right. They were wrong. Scoreboard doesn't lie.
    12 replies | 568 view(s)
  • Krugminator2's Avatar
    Yesterday, 10:25 AM
    Much of Austrian economics got absorbed into mainstream economics. The emphasis on prices communicating information is pure Hayek and Mises. What I assume you are asking is why isn't Austrian Business Cycle taken seriously and why don't people use Austrian methodology? The simple answers to those two questions are 1. Austrian Business Cycle has no predictive ability 2. Having a theory derived from logic is fine but if it doesn't comport with reality then it has to be discarded. Austrians have predicted five thousand of the last one recessions. Ron Paul and Peter Schiff are Austrians and were bearish during both of the largest bull markets of their lives. You would have to kill yourself and hope life insurance covers your margin debts if you listened to their advice. They predicted out of control inflation during a time when inflation was the lowest of their lives. And then didn't admit they were wrong and take the L. The problem with not using data is you don't change when proven wrong. And then you end up making up imaginary inflation and imaginary unemployment to get the world to comply with your theory instead of making sure the theory comports with the real world.
    12 replies | 568 view(s)
  • Krugminator2's Avatar
    10-27-2020, 06:57 AM
    Nothing fails like success. Hyperinflation to the wealthiest country in the region in one generation. Now back to shitholedom. Also "unabashedly capitalist coutnry" LOL. Chile is roughly as capitalistic as Sweden. Pretty good relative to the shitholes around them but not exactly Galt's Gulch.
    7 replies | 144 view(s)
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    10-27-2020, 06:30 AM
    I wonder if any companies will use this kid in ads to teach gender pronouns?
    16 replies | 512 view(s)
  • Krugminator2's Avatar
    10-25-2020, 09:06 AM
    It looks like I might be wrong. Apparently they changed the rule to account for the odds of being favorite going second in 2019. After Indiana scored. They would be right back on offense first in the second overtime. So going for 2 vs playing the next overtime is probably a breakeven decision.
    16 replies | 222 view(s)
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    10-24-2020, 05:46 PM
    Indiana won but I would fire there coach on the spot for being such a math illiterate dunce. The odds of winning going second in overtime are 55%. They had the second possession in overtime. Both Penn State and Indiana scored. Indiana went for two and got it. The odds of getting a two point conversion are substantially less than 55%.
    16 replies | 222 view(s)
  • Krugminator2's Avatar
    10-24-2020, 10:47 AM
    The big games this week are Michigan-Minnesota, Cincinnati-SMU, UNC-NC State Also Vince Vaughn was on Gameday today. He appears to be prepping for a role as a dying cancer patient.
    16 replies | 222 view(s)
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    10-24-2020, 08:18 AM
    Seems like there should be a college football thread. Big Georgia-Alabama game last week. Big Ten starts this week.
    16 replies | 222 view(s)
  • Krugminator2's Avatar
    10-24-2020, 08:09 AM
    This article is why I am voting for Trump. This isn't just good Trump. This is a Trump administration at its best. The FDA probably shouldn't exist but if they do, they should only focus on safety. There is no reason not to approve this drug for Covid. Trump's administration has been a step in the right direction with the FDA with expanding compassionate use as well. Only a complete anti-liberty troll thinks approving this Gilead drug is a bad thing. Also.. "A new report out from PricewaterhouseCoopers shows that the agency reined in its issuance of new federal regulations to a 20-year low in 2017, as the Scott Gottlieb stepped up to the helm as commissioner." "the number of new drug approvals has soared to a record high, with 53 new approvals" https://endpts.com/the-trump-effect-pwc-report-says-the-fda-has-slammed-the-brakes-on-significant-new-drug-regulations/
    4 replies | 171 view(s)
  • Krugminator2's Avatar
    10-22-2020, 05:56 PM
    I agree. Romney was actually a successful businessman (in contrast to a pretend businessman who recklessly gambled his inheritance.) Saved the Olympics. And was a governor of a deep blue state. He would have been almost ideal for a pandemic because he is pragmatic. Ideology is nice but competence also matters. The country is so fractured having a qualified centrist like Romney or Kasich or a Bill Clinton Dem would be a positive development. Unqualified carnival barkers and theocrats on the right and Marxists and race hustlers on the left are not a way to keep the country together. People act like revolution and tearing things down will end in bliss. It won't. You get Venezuela or Chile. The system right now for its flaws works quite well.
    23 replies | 687 view(s)
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    10-21-2020, 07:51 PM
    He didn't write it but the topic relates to everything Taleb writes about.
    13 replies | 324 view(s)
  • Krugminator2's Avatar
    10-19-2020, 10:30 AM
    When Genius Failed is a great, easy read. Taleb emphasizes fat tails a lot in finance and the hedge fund the book is about was started by a bunch of efficient markets Nobel Winners who used a lot of leverage. It blew up because an event that shouldn't happen in their models. Probably read it 15 years ago but still remember a lot of the anecdotes. Slightly more dense is Against the Gods: The remarkable story of risk. I probably read this 20 years ago and don't remember many specifics other than it was good. A new book I read hat was good was the The Man who Solved the Market. Mostly about how the most successful hedge fund ever was formed and some of the inner details. Gets a little into politics at the end. Jim Simons was Hillary's largest supporter. Bob Mercer basically owns Breitbart. And funded Trump and Ted Cruz. He's a big Rothbard fan who funded some quirkier candidates like Art Robinson who was promoted on this site. Almost forgot. A Man for All Markets. Taleb wrote the forward. Guy had a successful hedge fund. Accomplished mathematician. Invented a wearable computer to beat roulette. Wrote the original book on how black jack could be beaten using card counting.
    13 replies | 324 view(s)
  • Krugminator2's Avatar
    10-13-2020, 06:45 PM
    So you are saying you haven't completely cut off all contact from your parents because they disciplined you? What a weirdo. Rules are violence. A family should be run run like anarchy.
    110 replies | 2989 view(s)
  • Krugminator2's Avatar
    10-10-2020, 07:37 AM
    1314640813410967553 I saw this poll the other day. And the above Tweet seems like an explanation. I think the way Trump acts is the reason he is likely to lose.
    30 replies | 1045 view(s)
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    10-09-2020, 07:16 PM
    The Founding Fathers hated democracy. The Constitution is inherently an anti-democratic document. It's entire purpose is to constrain majorities from terrorizing minorities. St. Milton's view.
    7 replies | 338 view(s)
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    10-09-2020, 06:29 PM
    I wondered what Mike Lee's sin was to make this list. Here you go. The mouth breathing baboons on the left found these (correct and non-controversial) tweets from Mike Lee's "crazy". https://mobile.twitter.com/SenMikeLee/status/1314089207875371008
    59 replies | 2203 view(s)
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    10-09-2020, 05:48 PM
    Krugminator2 started a thread Regeneron in Open Discussion
    Pretty funny imo.
    0 replies | 109 view(s)
  • Krugminator2's Avatar
    10-08-2020, 03:28 PM
    I don't get your nihilistic posts at all. After years of posting on here and reading your posts, I have no idea what your views are on any issues. I do know you like to post even the most innocuous negative coverage as if they are scandals against Trump. Even if this is true (which apparently it isn't), who cares? Is this supposed to be anything? This is not any type of news at all. It isn't scandalous. It isn't anything.
    36 replies | 1073 view(s)
  • Krugminator2's Avatar
    10-07-2020, 06:46 PM
    Infowars online polls don't count. I see only one recent poll with Trump losing less than double digits In that one he loses by nine. https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/
    38 replies | 1254 view(s)
  • Krugminator2's Avatar
    10-07-2020, 11:39 AM
    I congratulate you on not paying attention to the political news at all. I mean that sincerely. It is useless entertainment. Wish I weren't so addicted. So why has Trump dropped in the polls so suddenly? His debate performance was an absolute dumpster fire. And he and everyone around him got Covid because of being reckless. Trump is doing much worse than 2016 at this point. There were polls showing Trump within a couple of points at this time in 2016. Now most recent polls show him getting boat raced by high single digits to double. We live in a free enterprise system. Pollsters have an incentive to be correct. Turns out capitalism works very well. One thing you are missing is pollsters basically got 2016 right Trump lost the popular vote by 2 and won a lot of key states by extremely small margins. Edit: And it is bad news having Rasmussen so bad. The original pollster Scott Rasmussen left a number of years ago.. He as a conservative but serious about being accurate. Now Rasmussen skews favorable to the Republican candidate in most polls.
    38 replies | 1254 view(s)
  • Krugminator2's Avatar
    10-06-2020, 08:07 PM
    If the election is held today, he probably loses by 8 or 9 percent and 100 electoral votes. He needs to have some hail mary completed the last few weeks. I would be extremely happy if Repubs somehow hold the Senate. 2016 was a major fluke where he narrowly won with very slim margins in the Big Ten states. His reelection always seemed unlikely but things are headed for a tidal wave if he doesn't do something major. He is letting Biden run out the clock and win by default.
    36 replies | 1232 view(s)
  • Krugminator2's Avatar
    10-06-2020, 03:21 PM
    Should he be rewarded for perpetuating multiple stock frauds (they didn't even get on the bigger one) and murdering his neighbor? He isn't Howard Roark pursuing productive work and a life of integrity, all the while fighting against the statist powers that be. I made zillion posts about his pink sheet pump and dump currently trading at 1.3 cents down from 8 bucks. He likely made at least $50 million on that. The SEC got him for making $23 million pumping shitcoins and dumping into his Twitter followers. He is a parasite.
    26 replies | 1018 view(s)
  • Krugminator2's Avatar
    10-06-2020, 06:39 AM
    Made up click bait site. No way to know Barron's IQ. They list the guy who created Ethereum's IQ at 257. The person with the highest IQ in the world is estimated between 195 and 210. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Christopher_Langan#:~:text=Christopher%20Michael%20Langan%20(born%20March,or%20%22in%20the%20world%22. Donald Trump is not a complete moron like some say but he doesn't have a 160 IQ. Probably more like 110-130. Those might be generous numbers though. If George W. Bush took Trump on in an IQ test, I would bet all chips on W., who is not usually thought of as smart.
    3 replies | 241 view(s)
  • Krugminator2's Avatar
    10-04-2020, 06:04 PM
    "The invisible hyperinflation monster (it's real)" https://www.econlib.org/archives/2016/05/the_invisible_h.html There is already enough base money to trigger hyperinflation. As long as you don't have buffoons at the Fed it won't be a problem. I think Powell is sensible. But if you had MMT's dictating policy, you could have 30% inflation in a very short time frame.
    6 replies | 684 view(s)
  • Krugminator2's Avatar
    10-04-2020, 05:48 PM
    I was about to post this article. I don't think the religious right is a huge fan of the pope, so not much to reconcile there. Catholics tend to be a swing vote. I automatically consider anyone who uses the phrase trickle down economics as either intentionally dishonest or stupid. In the pope's case, I think he is stupid. He espouses the economic philosophy of his home country of Argentina which has been bankrupt more than just about any other country and has interest rates north of 60% to beat back hyperinflation.
    23 replies | 888 view(s)
  • Krugminator2's Avatar
    10-03-2020, 10:43 AM
    I live in a hardcore lockdown state. My license expired in early June and it was a year I had to get a new photo and eye test. Once they opened up in mid June I procrastinated until July 3 to make an appointment (no walk ins). The earliest appointment I could get for any office within a half hour was September 23. When I went to the office on September 23, they were closed because their computers were down. Since I only had until September 30 to get a new license (the gov extended when you could get it), the woman telling people they were closed, who was the most miserable fucking person on Earth, told me to call their 800 to explain or try to make a daily appointment (but they only have five slots available each day and at really inconvenient times for me). I called the 800 number and spent 2 hours on four different calls over two days never able to reach a live human being. I finally did get a daily appointment (because they extended hours before the deadline because 10am to 11 am isn't exactly convenient for most people) which you could schedule online. I could fine only one slot at one location and it was 45 minutes from where I live. (And I live in metro Detroit so it isn't way out in the country with no offices). When I did arrive, the place was empty. They were only taking appointments two at time because of the bubonic covid plague Long story short the government is insanely incompetent at running anything.
    245 replies | 11141 view(s)
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