• Krugminator2's Avatar
    Yesterday, 05:40 PM
    Democrats are not all of sudden going to vote for a guy who wants to eliminate Social Security, gun laws, and who thinks a clump of 1 day old cells is a baby. He is popular with Dems like Ron Paul and John McCain were popular with Democrats, which is to say not at all popular when it matters. They are just momentary useful idiots. The LP primary is around May of 2020. Justin's House primary won't be until August three months later. Amash has put himself in a bad spot. Justin should threaten an Amash/Sanford Libertarian Party ticket if he doesn't get House leadership to pressure his opponent to drop out. That ticket is sufficiently conservative (unlike previous candidates) and has name recognition and would probably be enough to sink Trump's reelection chances.
    6 replies | 153 view(s)
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    06-12-2019, 04:42 PM
    Global warming exists. Man contributes to it. The US contributes a small amount. I am too lazy to use Google but I read China pollutes 5 to 10 times as much. Anything the US does is a drop in the ocean. India and other third world countries are getting wealthier and will pollute more in the coming years. It is ridiculous for the US to have a lower standard of living and have no impact just to appease anti-capitalist zealots.
    7 replies | 227 view(s)
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    06-11-2019, 07:00 PM
    Just to reiterate, women are mush brains who make the country poorer and less free by having the ability to vote. (excepting the .2% of women who voted for Ron Paul or are libertarians.)
    79 replies | 917 view(s)
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    06-11-2019, 06:56 PM
    Hayek thought it was a good idea. Among other quotes: "More recently I have not been able to find a single person even in much maligned Chile who did not agree that personal freedom was much greater under Pinochet than it had been under Allende." https://en.wikiquote.org/wiki/Friedrich_Hayek_and_dictatorship It is always weird when I see libertarians use Chile as an example of foreign meddling. Chile worked. That was a good intervention. If all interventions went that smoothly then there would be justification for them. There was no blowback and the people are much better off. There are no radical Chileans committing terrorism against the US. And no US soldiers lost their lives. I support regime change in Venezuela. I don't support US troops in Venezuela. But I see no problem with Trump meeting with the opposition and offering encouragement. Venezuela has a ton of oil and could be prosperous. More trade would be good for everyone. I don't see a problem with committing money and intelligence to oust a Communist. That is my usual contrarian take. I understand not getting involved and the LP chair probably should promote it. But Venezuela isn't similar to Iraq.
    57 replies | 686 view(s)
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    06-11-2019, 07:26 AM
    I am for employers voluntarily being able to not ask this question which is already the case. On the other hand, I am absolutely not in favor of making it illegal to ask that question. All drugs should be legal. But people who do drugs are losers. If you went to prison for dealing drugs or using drugs (even if you shouldn't go to prison in a free society), I would want to know that in hiring. And drugs are the minor question. If you serve for rape or child molestation, an employer has the right to know if they ask. The ice cream truck company shouldn't have to be in the dark if some pedo wants to get a job their. They have their own reputation at risk.
    11 replies | 447 view(s)
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    06-08-2019, 08:29 PM
    Instead of using you as an example, do I think Ron Paul understands the basics of personal finance? No. His personal finances were public and they were a mess and have cost him millions of dollars. He had 100% of net worth in precious and miners, both of which have underperformed a broad basket of equities since the beginning of time. Super basic stuff like not buying actively managed mutual funds, investing in equities and sticking with them through good and bad times, maximizing employer matches, having an HSA and high deductible plan in the individual health market, having auto insurance with high deductibles etc are all things people do not do. They would be better served spending a couple of hours a week on that stuff than getting on a ladder cleaning leaves out of their gutter. But that is my personal preference. Other people might think DIY ripping apart their shower is a more important life skill.
    125 replies | 1170 view(s)
  • Krugminator2's Avatar
    06-08-2019, 06:59 PM
    That's one way to look. The other way to look at it is everyone is dependent. Nobody on the planet could reproduce a pencil on their own. I, Pencil answers that argument perfectly. Secondly, what you consider a critical task may differ from what I consider a critical task. To me an oil change is very unimportant. The cost savings in peanuts and probably is a net cost to DIYers. If someone has an interest in it. Cool. But for the average person it will add zero benefit to their life. In contrast, learning the basics of personal finance, I would consider a critical task. That is something where most people make needless errors on basic stuff where they don't need to pay someone that ends up costing them hugely over the course of a lifetime.
    125 replies | 1170 view(s)
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    06-08-2019, 03:48 PM
    Perfect example. I said this multiple times when Rand ran for president. Rand saves himself no money cutting his hair. If just one person decided to not get laser eye surgery from him because they thought he looked unprofessional, that cost would be greater than paying for a lifetime of haircuts.
    125 replies | 1170 view(s)
  • Krugminator2's Avatar
    06-08-2019, 03:18 PM
    Let's say the unimaginable happens and have a lady over. If I were to clean my own place it would look terrible. There would be grease stains all over the counter that I couldn't get out. Smudges on the mirrors. Dirty base boards. Sure I could clean that stuff but it is tedious. Other people do it super quick and well. I do it super slow and poorly. I would rather not have not take that risk. Or lets take the oil change example. The risk reward on that is pretty skewed. The upside is I save $50. The downside is I wreck the engine in my car. Not exactly a good scenario. Not to mention, I don't know what to look for that could be faulty. Even if I Googled it, I still would know much less than people who look at dozens of the same make of car every day. I like having the peace of mind of the dealership telling me the whatever thing needs to be replaced or it is going to cause unnecessary wear and tear. Plus it doesn't necessarily even save money changing your own oil unless you know exactly what you are doing and you don't ever want to resell the car. The first thing I would look at in buying a car is the CarFax and want to see regular oil changes and the maintenance history. If those aren't available I wouldn't consider it. One thing I did do this year was my own taxes. I know more than 99.5% about taxes than the general population and more than most of the CPAs I have dealt with. I actually just called my old CPA last night because my questions were bothering me so much. I still likely screwed something up and will be going back for my own sanity. The bottom line is trying to do things yourself isn't a free lunch. There is the cost in time and the cost in doing it worse than a pro.
    125 replies | 1170 view(s)
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    06-08-2019, 02:13 PM
    None of that is correct (for me at least). It just doesn't interest me. I value my time as well as getting the job done well and quickly over the cost. If someone wants to work on cars then boats then great. I would consider that a huge waste of money and rather save and invest it. The underlying assumption you and AF make is physical work is somehow necessary and superior to mental work. I would rather smoke a cigar or play with my labrador retriever than change my own oil. Not everyone has to have the same interests. I don't grow and or shoot all of my own food? Assuming you don't, why are you such a snob? Why use fancy grocery stores when you could just forage for berries for a couple of hours. A lot of this talk about how prior generations could do certain things was out necessity not out of some masculine instinct. When America was a third world country and people lived on less than a dollar a day they could butcher a hog, build shelter, plow a field, or knit a sock. They also lived on a dollar a day and died at 30. Not for me.
    125 replies | 1170 view(s)
  • Krugminator2's Avatar
    06-08-2019, 01:37 PM
    I'll take the counter view. We live in a division of labor society. I work hard at what I am good at so I don't have to do that stuff. I have a housekeeper, live in an HOA community, and have pay people when something goes wrong with the toilet. Could I landscape and clean and replace the toilet valve if I had to? Sure I could. But why? I am not against physical labor but I did well in school and struggled at what I do for years so I wouldn't have to. The single best advice I would give someone is do one thing and do one thing really well. And if that one thing goes away at some point in life, find another one thing and do that well. Specialization pays. Being able to do a lot of things is the road to poverty. Ask Thomas Jefferson. He died broke.
    125 replies | 1170 view(s)
  • Krugminator2's Avatar
    06-08-2019, 09:09 AM
    It is interesting how far Glenn Beck fell from grace monetarily for not supporting Trump. You can say what you will for Beck and whether you believe not supporting Trump was principle or not, but it cost him hugely for not supporting orange man.
    25 replies | 276 view(s)
  • Krugminator2's Avatar
    06-07-2019, 12:32 PM
    Nice to see Dotard's tariffs on Mexico aren't happening. https://www.cnbc.com/2019/06/07/trump-says-theres-a-good-chance-that-mexico-averts-tariffs-by-purchasing-us-farm-goods.html He gets to pretend like he is getting a small win over something that has nothing to do with immigration instead of losing 90-10 vote in the Senate that blocks them.
    49 replies | 826 view(s)
  • Krugminator2's Avatar
    06-07-2019, 06:28 AM
    Monster rally in the market off the bottom. Up 5% from just a few days ago. Second biggest 1 week move in 6 and half years.
    71 replies | 1843 view(s)
  • Krugminator2's Avatar
    06-04-2019, 10:59 AM
    Second biggest up day of the year. All out.
    71 replies | 1843 view(s)
  • Krugminator2's Avatar
    06-03-2019, 09:46 PM
    It is disgraceful that anyone here would support these taxes. This is a bridge too far. I hope Trump losses badly if these go into effect. This is Bernie Sanders/UAW stuff. Tariff Man apparently wants to be Herbert Hoover Great Depression Man.
    49 replies | 826 view(s)
  • Krugminator2's Avatar
    06-03-2019, 07:51 PM
    It isn't a matter of balls. It is a matter of statistics. Or if you want to be an Austrian about you can just use logic. You get paid to take risk. In order to make money you have to do what others are unwilling to do. Buying when others are selling is the best strategy over the long run. I might not be right but well over 100% of the gains in the market come in situations like this. That said the only thing that is worrisome is the VIX hasn't risen much so I am being less aggressive so far unless we get another down move. Taking out the canes was good advice in 1887. Good advice in 2019. http://www.dailyspeculations.com/Letter/cane.htm
    71 replies | 1843 view(s)
  • Krugminator2's Avatar
    06-03-2019, 07:23 PM
    Odds of a rally are about 99% (literally). I would like see one more push down. Might not get it but can hope. Treasuries are at an extreme as well. If treasuries open green tomorrow, very high probability short.
    71 replies | 1843 view(s)
  • Krugminator2's Avatar
    06-03-2019, 06:23 AM
    Big rally very likely no matter what happens with trade. More a matter of when things bottom. I would like to see one more down day. Two down days even better. Money market fund flows huge last week so money already out of stocks. Lot of put buying. Sentiment surveys very bearish. June tends to be a good month after a bad May. Likelihood is 4-6% rally from whatever the bottom is. Obviously no guarantees but these kind of times are where 100% of the opportunity in the market is.
    71 replies | 1843 view(s)
  • Krugminator2's Avatar
    05-31-2019, 08:58 PM
    I can sort of see the logic behind the China tariffs. China is rogue state that steals secrets and intellectual property and is an enemy of the US. They are stealing their way to technological superiority. China is a legit threat to freedom. And if tariffs can help correct the situation as a negotiation tactic, okay. I have my doubts but somebody does need to stand up to China. Anyone who thinks these Mexico tariffs are a good idea is a retard. Mexico is not an enemy and has been cooperative with trade talks. Shit for brains Trump is going to be Herbert Hoover. Trump is so fucking illiterate and dumb that he will not listen to anyone on this. If he follows through on these Mexico tariffs as a permanent policy, I will vote for Biden or Howard Shultz or Amy Klobuchar before I vote for this guy. The majority of the cars in the US has Mexico parts for good reason. Trump is such an impulsive buffoon that he thinks because the world hasn't gone to hell yet, he can still keep doing whatever idiot thing he wants. That is why he bankrupted his casinos. He is a degenerate gambler with no plan. The world is about to go into recession. Every indicator shows how things are just teetering on the edge worldwide. Everything looks their best just before things get terrible. So many indicators are flashing warnings. And Trump is such a dummy that he doesn't understand this, so he will push things over the edge.
    20 replies | 330 view(s)
  • Krugminator2's Avatar
    05-31-2019, 01:48 PM
    I am going to wait for one more lower close to add. Already have too big of a position https://paststat.com/blog/when-spy-lost-by-more-than-5-for-the-month/ Not a lot of fear right now which is odd. Especially with Trump being crazy and all the potential news catalysts. Friday. Big down close. Right at 200 dma. Always a little worrisome. The positive is Monday will have the inflows from mutual funds.
    71 replies | 1843 view(s)
  • Krugminator2's Avatar
    05-31-2019, 06:36 AM
    Trump is such a worthless sack of cum.
    71 replies | 1843 view(s)
  • Krugminator2's Avatar
    05-30-2019, 01:32 PM
    All good stuff. One random indicator that is also very good is how well the market does when unemployment is super low like now. And historically the market has negative 3 year returns when valuations are like they are and unemployment is where it is at. That said I wouldn't be so sure the market has made all time highs. I am buying the market today and would add if tomorrow closes lower. Should get a bounce soon. End of month very bullish an combined with oversold. A little more fear would be nice but still think bounce without. 1125234114653716483
    71 replies | 1843 view(s)
  • Krugminator2's Avatar
    05-27-2019, 04:02 PM
    Politically incorrect (but true) statement of the day: We will never have a free country if women are allowed to vote. Democrats love to promote the idea that people vote Dem because of racism and sexism but they voted that way when the Dems were far more racist and sexist. The simple truth is women are hardwired to be taken care of. As marriage breaks down, women look to the government to take care of them. Period. I am not saying women and certain ethnic groups shouldn't be allowed to vote. I am saying it is indisputably true that they don't have the same thirst for freedom. If everyone were allowed to vote at the founding of the United States, this country would have been far less free and successful than it has been. Limiting voting to white male property owners may not be moral but it yielded a better outcome. It isn't a coincidence that Coolidge was the last great president for freedom which also coincided with women getting the ability to vote.
    78 replies | 1215 view(s)
  • Krugminator2's Avatar
    05-27-2019, 03:53 PM
    Krugminator2 replied to a thread Dr. No in Rand Paul Forum
    I actually think they are doing it because of scam phone calls. It would be something that is popular with about 100% of people. Do you not get these calls multiple times a day every weekday?
    12 replies | 570 view(s)
  • Krugminator2's Avatar
    05-26-2019, 02:18 PM
    I had to double take on that one. Hoekstra hasn't been a House Rep since 2010. I remember he went all out to criticize Amash when Amash had his last primary challenge. But Hoekstra has mostly just bounced around with failed office runs and is apparently a Trump appointee as Ambassador to the Netherlands.
    15 replies | 387 view(s)
  • Krugminator2's Avatar
    05-26-2019, 02:05 PM
    Krugminator2 replied to a thread Dr. No in Rand Paul Forum
    What is the reason for opposing this? I get multiple of these a day. You have a company that spoofs a number and wants to sell what is usually a semi-fraudulent to outright fraudulent product. This seems like the kind of regulation with no downside and a big upside.
    12 replies | 570 view(s)
  • Krugminator2's Avatar
    05-24-2019, 10:34 AM
    It is interesting how brain-damaged people like Kevin McCarthy are. If Amash has a tough primary challenge, it is very possible he would run LP and cost Trump a close election. The best way to handle people like Amash is like how Newt handled Ron Paul. Just ignore them and let them do their thing. When you start condemning, things escalate and you create new problems.
    15 replies | 387 view(s)
  • Krugminator2's Avatar
    05-23-2019, 06:55 AM
    I thought Amash would run as a Libertarian candidate in the future for the last two years I wouldn't be stunned if did it in 2020. I vote LP every election but it is such a colossal waste of talent for Amash. He could hold his congressional seat forever but instead will go into irrelevancy. I have met people who run for state LP office and people who have been state chairs and people who have been honored nationally. I will tell you one thing. That is party that is never winning anything. It is hard to fully state what a mess the LP is. Do you how many dues paying LP members are in Amash's own state? I know the answer. 300.
    64 replies | 1542 view(s)
  • Krugminator2's Avatar
    05-22-2019, 06:52 PM
    Pretty amusing how degenerate liberal sportswriters snubbed Schilling again. If you actually look at the analytics of his career for just the regular season, he had a borderline first ballot HOF career. On top of that he is arguably the best post-season pitcher in baseball history. Putting guys like Smoltz, Halladay, Mussina in ahead of Schilling is getting kind of silly. There were basically three pitchers (Johnson, Maddux, Pedro Martinez) who were clearly better than Schilling when he pitched. After that you could make the argument Schilling was the fourth best pitcher in baseball from his era.
    34 replies | 833 view(s)
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