• Krugminator2's Avatar
    Yesterday, 06:22 PM
    This seems kind of problematic. https://therealdeal.com/2020/04/03/nations-biggest-department-stores-could-run-out-of-funds-in-a-month-goldman-sachs/?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter I feel like people saying the economy should stay shut down for a month have no idea the tidal wave that could be coming. I found this from JP Morgan study of small business in 2016 https://institute.jpmorganchase.com/institute/research/small-business/insight-cash-is-king.htm I originally thought the would be nothing. But closing the world economy for months is going to take years to recover from. Most businesses are highly levered and weren't equipped to have a total shutdown.
    1 replies | 70 view(s)
  • Krugminator2's Avatar
    Yesterday, 05:39 PM
    Trump is a disgrace and doing an overall terrible job with the virus. But he had better win reelection. MMT and an avalanche of crazy is coming if a Democrat is the next president. It is going to be a free for all of people with their hands out trying to live off everyone else in a Democratic presidency.
    4 replies | 124 view(s)
  • Krugminator2's Avatar
    04-03-2020, 05:02 PM
    If I had to guess what you are talking about, I think FDR wanted people to snitch on people who didn't buy union made products at artificially high prices from government approved dealers. I think it was called Blue Eagle, though there doesn't seem to be a lot of info on the snitching part. "Though membership to the NRA was voluntary, businesses that did not display the eagle were very often boycotted, making it seem mandatory for survival to many." https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Recovery_Administration
    10 replies | 204 view(s)
  • Krugminator2's Avatar
    04-03-2020, 09:52 AM
    The country has over 300 million people. Every adult bought hand sanitizer and disinfecting wipes over the last few weeks. Demand has outpaced the ability to produce and distribute. This is the same for every crisis like hurricanes and the price of water.
    6 replies | 280 view(s)
  • Krugminator2's Avatar
    04-02-2020, 08:30 PM
    I was going to say something too. There are two groups of people oblivious to this. People who already have a ton of money and aren't productive any longer (if they ever were) and super broke people happy to see the world come down to their level. The look of despair on the owner of one of the businesses that I frequent and is still open is palpable. I am usually optimistic but I have a hard time believing life will be back to normal for most businesses any time soon if ever. It is very easy for me to imagine towns of boarded up commercial real estate for years. And the people who think charity is going to cover the shortfall of 30% unemployment are a special brand of stupid.
    42 replies | 569 view(s)
  • Krugminator2's Avatar
    04-02-2020, 08:01 PM
    I was just telling my parents in their 70s that the other day the same thing. They should expose themselves to something that has 10% chance of killing them and will give them permanently diminished lung function to build up their immune system. I said who cares if a million people in the US die. Got to go some way. And then I let them know that I saw a doctor/chiropractor on Youtube, who has a degree from a college in the Caribbean that isn't accredited by the brain washing US, say that the Coronavirus is no big deal. It's just the flu. Nothing to worry about. People just toughed the Spanish Flu out. Bunch of weaklings today.
    42 replies | 569 view(s)
  • Krugminator2's Avatar
    04-02-2020, 05:01 PM
    1245829622576459778
    112 replies | 8890 view(s)
  • Krugminator2's Avatar
    04-01-2020, 07:55 PM
    We had the longest economic expansion in US history and he was dooming the whole time. If you listened to him, you missed a market that went up five fold. Recessions happen. 2008 was just the start? That was 12 years ago. How the does that help anyone make money who isn't an immortal vampire who will live forever? I guess if you plan on living for 2000 years maybe he is "right".
    114 replies | 19271 view(s)
  • Krugminator2's Avatar
    04-01-2020, 06:01 PM
    Right about what? He was wrong about everything. We weren't in a depression in 2010. Gold didn't go to $5000. The stock market has still quadrupled since he was dooming in 2008 even after this sell off. If you listened to Schiff you missed the bull market of a lifetime. Couldn't have been more wrong. That is a fact.
    114 replies | 19271 view(s)
  • Krugminator2's Avatar
    04-01-2020, 05:50 PM
    Yes very prophetic in a Miss Cleo/tarot card reader sort of way. Not actually sure I have ever seen someone be more wrong, more of the time than Schiff. Was he prophetic in 2010 Peter Schiff: U.S. Is in a Depression https://www.thestreet.com/investing/stocks/peter-schiff-us-is-in-a-depression-10790377 How about 2011 "Peter Schiff: Why it’s time to dump most U.S. stocks https://www.investmentnews.com/peter-schiff-why-its-time-to-dump-most-u-s-stocks-31335 Was this prophetic in 2012 "Peter Schiff: Gold to $5,000 in Two Years" https://www.cnbc.com/video/2012/10/25/peter-schiff-gold-to-5000-in-two-years.html How about 2013 Economist Peter Schiff Forecasts Second Crisis to Hit Around 2013 https://ivn.us/2012/10/28/peter-schiff-who-predicted-the-financial-crisis-forecasts-the-worst-to-come-around-2013-2
    114 replies | 19271 view(s)
  • Krugminator2's Avatar
    04-01-2020, 09:57 AM
    Maybe. That probably is true. I don't see any need to hasten the process of going to zero though. I am in favor of delaying the adjustment of having 20%+ of population unemployed for as long as possible. Not something I am embracing with open arms.
    114 replies | 19271 view(s)
  • Krugminator2's Avatar
    04-01-2020, 09:32 AM
    The thread right below this is about bartering. You might think depressions are fun and cool. And suicides and all loss of meaning in life because job losses are great. I don't share that view. I don't want to go anywhere near a world where people are back to living like savages and bartering.
    114 replies | 19271 view(s)
  • Krugminator2's Avatar
    04-01-2020, 09:15 AM
    Nobody is saying it creates wealth. Peter Schiff again being a buffoon who continues to embarrass free market people. It does however avoid debt deflation. Governments have also destroyed economies by just letting the world go to hell. See United States 1929-1933. What you call Austrian is just Rothbardian. Hayek didn't agree at all. https://www.themoneyillusion.com/what-did-hayek-really-think-of-deflation/ https://www.coordinationproblem.org/2011/05/hayek-on-deflation.html
    114 replies | 19271 view(s)
  • Krugminator2's Avatar
    03-31-2020, 03:26 PM
    He is calling them out for not being full fledged communists like him. I agree with Ron on 99% of economic issues.
    35 replies | 836 view(s)
  • Krugminator2's Avatar
    03-31-2020, 03:13 PM
    So basically this guy had the worst of all worlds take. Doesn't want to help businesses get through a government induced liquidity crunch but does want individuals to stop paying bills and delivery people to stop working until the government gives them ten times more handouts. Not a good ally.
    35 replies | 836 view(s)
  • Krugminator2's Avatar
    03-31-2020, 10:08 AM
    The plunge protection team would have no reason to be in the market right now. The market isn't plunging. Rational would be for the markets to go up. You had historically oversold on all time frames, massive QE and a fiscal bill that is 10% of GDP. Trump is bulling up an infrastructure bill. I think/hope volatility comes back after April 1. Would be nice to see one more sell off attempt. No rational reason to be bearish now. Once in a decade bull opportunity setting up.
    129 replies | 5869 view(s)
  • Krugminator2's Avatar
    03-31-2020, 09:40 AM
    You have end of quarter rebalancing. Pensions and stock and bond funds have to rebalance to get their target weight of stocks to bonds back into balance which means buying stocks which got hammered relative to bonds. Longer term the combination of QE infinity and the big deficits are bullish for stocks. Everyone thinks is a bear market. We'll see. I will use one more selloff on negative virus news to buy with longer term money. The tables are set for a raging bull market over the next 12 months. Wouldn't be surprised if the market doesn't go up like 1999. Everyone thought the market was done in 97 and 98 then you had a blowoff run up. This sell off seems like a potential fake out. 1244942519365967872 1244923990994452480
    129 replies | 5869 view(s)
  • Krugminator2's Avatar
    03-30-2020, 06:08 PM
    "The silver lining is that this next crisis could finally demolish the Keynesian welfare-warfare state and the fiat money system." What is that going to look like Ron? Venezuela? For some reason, I highly doubt that will mean a smooth transition to anarchotopia. If the Fed loses control, we are going to be ten times less free than we are now. And a much poorer country. This whole idea of people rooting for collapse is the most bonkers thing I see in the liberty movement. There will be no liberty in a collapse.
    4 replies | 284 view(s)
  • Krugminator2's Avatar
    03-28-2020, 01:17 PM
    Here are the following books I have read by Austrians. Have the physical copies nicely dogeared, underlined and coffee stained on all but Rothbard's which I got from the library system. 1. Human Action 2. Theory of Money and Credit 3. America's Great Depression 4. Economics in One Lesson 5. Road to Serfdom 6. The Constitution of Liberty 7. The Fatal Conceit
    39 replies | 1370 view(s)
  • Krugminator2's Avatar
    03-28-2020, 10:18 AM
    Makes sense but what does that have to do with the fact that most businesses and people aren't smart about their money? 1243885552853753857
    39 replies | 1370 view(s)
  • Krugminator2's Avatar
    03-28-2020, 08:41 AM
    That part is true. The Fed actively pursued a deflationary policy as interventionist Rothbard advocated. They tightened credit to protect the dollar and caused incomes to fall which made it harder to service debt which led to a spiral of bankruptcies. Deflation caused the first part of the Great Depression. It was THE reason. And that intervention was a major government failure. So you think union rules, tariffs, tax hikes and public works projects like the Hoover Dam caused the stock market to fall 86%? Those things didn't ever cause cause the stock market to drop 86% and unemployment over 20% before or since. Wonder why. Real puzzler. Maybe discarding that theory would be worthwhile.
    39 replies | 1370 view(s)
  • Krugminator2's Avatar
    03-27-2020, 07:09 PM
    I am sure telling people in towns of boarded up restaurants and small businesses that a new management team is all that is needed to get things started will be real effective. Given that this is the single most interesting topic to me and I have thought about this very topic and debated it for the last decade, I suspect I have read any author you could mention and have considered their opinion. I strongly suspect you have read exactly zero people that I have mentioned. Start with listening to what Milton Friedman said about the depression and then try to refute.
    39 replies | 1370 view(s)
  • Krugminator2's Avatar
    03-27-2020, 06:27 PM
    This isn't a stimulus like public works projects. Obama's plan was just a bunch of programs like short term tax cuts and programs like cash for clunkers. It was Keynesian stimulus (which has a mixed record) to boost spending. This bill has little to do with stimulus and everything to do with avoiding the systemic risk of bankruptcies. That is why most of it is loans to backstop businesses and the remainder is checks to keep people paying bills. We had a depression in the 1930's called the Great Depression. It was caused by letting banks fail which caused depositors not to be able to pays debts which caused more bank failures and a money supply collapse which caused people throughout the economy not be able to service debt. It was a never ending spiral. Those bankruptcies took years to settle. How did the let things go to hell method work? The Peter Schiff method was a decade of pain. What happens if you just let things work themselves out right now? Think hard. If people don't pay rent, the property management companies can't pay their mortgage and they fold. If corporations in vulnerable industries like hospitality start folding, you are talking about tens of millions of people whose jobs are at stake. Bankruptcies mean layoffs and they also mean a complete halt to new investment. What happens if investment halts throughout the entire economy for years while bankruptcies get settled?
    39 replies | 1370 view(s)
  • Krugminator2's Avatar
    03-27-2020, 06:07 PM
    Safe to say I won't be getting a check so nothing to spend. The fact that you are comparing this to interventions of Bush and Obama (both of which I would oppose) shows you don't understand the situation at all.
    39 replies | 1370 view(s)
  • Krugminator2's Avatar
    03-27-2020, 06:02 PM
    I basically agree with his analysis. It is a nice critique of the problems with all of this intervention. But the problem is he thinks things will just work themselves out if you do nothing. He thinks the Great Depression was just some accident from tariffs or whatever. If you just let everyone go bankrupt right now, you will have a spiral that will take years if not a decade or more to get through. I heard the stories from grandparents of the Great Depression. That is something that I don't want to experience. There is no good solution to this.
    39 replies | 1370 view(s)
  • Krugminator2's Avatar
    03-27-2020, 05:52 PM
    There has been such a massive buildup in private sector corporate debt. If you do nothing, you could have years of 20% unemployment. That situation won't hold. The bolded part in the article below is why I favor the nuclear weapons the Fed and government are using but I think we are in for a lot pain and potential systemic risk. The problem is this is a Faustian bargain. These actions just get us through the short term This whole thing is a massive experiment for high stakes and I am not so sure we are going to come out it as a great country. The country needs to reduce leverage to survive. This isn't over when the virus abates. https://www.guggenheiminvestments.com/perspectives/global-cio-outlook/the-2020-faustian-bargain?utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=social&utm_term=scott+minerd&utm_content=global+cio+outlook&utm_campaign=the+2020+faustian+bargain
    39 replies | 1370 view(s)
  • Krugminator2's Avatar
    03-27-2020, 02:11 PM
    Ok doomer. "Global Poverty Decline Denialism" https://reason.com/2019/01/31/global-poverty-decline-denialism/
    13 replies | 1381 view(s)
  • Krugminator2's Avatar
    03-27-2020, 11:25 AM
    Global poverty rate drops to record low 10%: World Bank https://www.cnbc.com/2018/09/19/world-bank-global-poverty-rate-drops-to-record-low.html https://www.aei.org/economics/aging/world-poverty-rate-plummets/ The idea that the US impoverishes countries by taking their resources and looting is a popular talking point on the fringe left but is easily debunked. People are living dramatically better worldwide over the last few decades.
    13 replies | 1381 view(s)
  • Krugminator2's Avatar
    03-26-2020, 07:24 PM
    Not that this matters or I should get much credit but Dow rallies more than 1,300 points, capping its biggest 3-day surge since 1931 https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/25/stock-market-futures-open-to-close-news.html
    129 replies | 5869 view(s)
  • Krugminator2's Avatar
    03-26-2020, 05:35 PM
    Both are successful. One is very successful in markets and the other is a successful marketer and salesman.
    9 replies | 576 view(s)
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