• Krugminator2's Avatar
    Yesterday, 05:09 PM
    I think M2 changes are usually the result of bank lending. I think M2 will also increase if the government cuts people a check that isn't paid for with taxes or private citizens buying the debt that was used to send a check.
    557 replies | 78232 view(s)
  • Krugminator2's Avatar
    07-04-2022, 07:30 PM
    Remember when the laws of markets were repealed and something about MMT and Janet Yellen and free worthless dollars from the Federal Reserve made it worthwhile for corporations to pay any price for houses because they couldn't lose? Well.. turns out that was wrong. I can't find a breakdown of Blackrock's performance because they manage $10 trillion and real estate is only $60 billion of that but Zillow and Redfin certainly were in the business of buying residential real estate and it was a big part of their business. Let's see how that went for them. Did it go well I wonder? Free worthless money made losing impossible, right?
    557 replies | 78232 view(s)
  • Krugminator2's Avatar
    07-04-2022, 11:54 AM
    M2 increased by 10% in a little over a month https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/M2SL M2 Feb 2020 - 15458 M2 April 2020 - 17002 What do you think is the more likely reason for this spike? Option A) cash from QE done 10 years earlier on the balance sheets of banks started to flow into the system because it was such an opportune time to make loans Option B) A bill called the CARES Act passed on March 27th, 2020 that deposited $560 billion directly in bank accounts increased M2
    557 replies | 78232 view(s)
  • Krugminator2's Avatar
    07-04-2022, 09:21 AM
    Both are horrible takes. Maybe we should learn from the people who right in 2009 AND 2021. I was ridiculed endlessly after the crisis on forums like this saying the Federal Reserve policy was way too tight and should be going much bigger. Endlessly. Had these conversations with you for 10 years. Then after the huge increase in the money supply starting in March 2020, I thought that would be highly inflationary because I didn't think the Federal Reserve would immediately start sopping up the excess liquidity. This post I made early of 2021 is so good on so many levels. I should get some sort of poster of the century award. There should be some sort note that says genius next to my forum name.
    557 replies | 78232 view(s)
  • Krugminator2's Avatar
    06-30-2022, 06:38 PM
    I don't think he does. The Fed doesn't believe M2 matters which is why they only publish it once a month. And apparently those Austrian economists don't understand inflation either (at least not the living ones) Double-Digit Inflation Bet with Bob 2009 Murphy https://www.econlib.org/archives/2009/12/double-digit_in_1.html "At any point between now and January 2013, if there is a year/year increase in seasonally adjusted CPI that is at least 10%, then I pay Bob at that time $500."
    557 replies | 78232 view(s)
  • Krugminator2's Avatar
    06-30-2022, 05:55 AM
    Strangely the masses keep getting richer and richer. A middle class person today has a higher standard of living than the wealthiest people in the world a century ago. Two-thirds of the budget is welfare spending. How much more free stuff should people be getting?
    35 replies | 1320 view(s)
  • Krugminator2's Avatar
    06-29-2022, 06:35 AM
    They work perfectly at causing shortages. Didn't work in ancient Rome, didn't work in Chile. Didn't work for Hugo Chavez. Didn't work for Nixon. Been a disaster for housing. If futures markets were limited to growers and producers you would have no market. Someone has to assume the risk and take the other side of the trade. There aren't enough growers and producers to trade with each other at one time. Thinly traded markets are the most easy to manipulate. Liquid markets are almost impossible to mainupulate.
    35 replies | 1320 view(s)
  • Krugminator2's Avatar
    06-28-2022, 09:11 AM
    I find it amusing as life gets better and better and the world gets wealthier and as markets continue to work amazing well to allocate scarce resources, people like you get more and more miserable and want to inflict that misery on everyone else. The year 2022 is the best time in human history to be alive. Literally the only possible way for the golden goose to be killed is turning America into Venezuela with price controls and nationalizing industries. The zero percent success rate of price controls should be a tip off it is a bad idea.
    35 replies | 1320 view(s)
  • Krugminator2's Avatar
    06-26-2022, 08:44 PM
    I read a book called Trumped about 15 or so years ago. The guy who wrote it ran one of Trump's Atlantic City casinos while Ivana ran the other one. Trump already had two casinos in one city. Then decided to open a third called the Taj Mahal which was supposed to be the biggest casino in the world. It made no sense to have three casinos in competition with each other but Trump was always just a reckless gambler with other people's money. Trump was so overleveraged and didn't have the money for the Taj Mahal so he just deferred payment to the people who built it then stiffed them when the job was done. Then the casinos went bankrupt so the people never got paid. Edit: This article basically says what I just said. https://www.northjersey.com/story/news/columnists/mike-kelly/2020/01/24/donald-trump-still-owes-money-to-contractors-who-built-taj-mahal-atlantic-city/4547037002/
    61 replies | 1538 view(s)
  • Krugminator2's Avatar
    06-26-2022, 09:40 AM
    For those who thought turning primitives in the third world into crypto speculators, feel free to take your L. https://www.cnbc.com/2022/06/25/el-salvador-bitcoin-experiment-not-saving-countrys-finances.html
    19 replies | 3467 view(s)
  • Krugminator2's Avatar
    06-25-2022, 12:09 PM
    Krugminator2 replied to a thread roe GONE in U.S. Political News
    Rand Paul and every libertarian legal theorist that I know of disagree. https://www.google.com/amp/s/reason.com/2013/04/11/rand-paul-vs-ron-paul-on-the-constitutio/%3famp Unless Ron Paul has changed his legal philosophy since 2005 he would have to oppose the recent gun decision. He thought the Fifth Amendment didn't apply for eminent domain for private businesses is reasonable if done below the federal level. https://www.lewrockwell.com/2005/07/ron-paul/we-have-no-jurisdiction-in-kelo/
    67 replies | 2019 view(s)
  • Krugminator2's Avatar
    06-25-2022, 11:02 AM
    Krugminator2 replied to a thread roe GONE in U.S. Political News
    That is what I think too with specifically Obergefell. You know infinitely more than me about this stuff. But it seems like the contraceptive decision and sodomy laws are less certain. I can't believe those would be challenged but.... “We should reconsider all of this Court’s substantive due process precedents, including Griswold, Lawrence, and Obergfell,” Thomas wrote. And worth pointing out what the namesake of the site said about this. Third paragraph. I could not disagree more but it certainly is a line of thought. https://www.lewrockwell.com/2003/08/ron-paul/the-imaginery-constitution/
    67 replies | 2019 view(s)
  • Krugminator2's Avatar
    06-25-2022, 08:11 AM
    Krugminator2 replied to a thread roe GONE in U.S. Political News
    The amusing part of this is how wildly incoherent left wing and conservative justices are at applying their legal philosophies. If you accept the original Roe reasoning (I do), then you logically have to accept the reasoning of Lochner. It can't be any other way. Alito (who along with every other justice reject Lochner) pointed this out in the majority opinion. The left wing's dissenting opinion addresses this by saying freedom of contract is different because well.... reasons. So 18 year old girl, her body her choice for abortion. Same 18 year old girl working for five dollars an hour not her body her choice because social justice or something. On the other hand conservative justices shoot down gun laws at the state level (I agree) because the Constitution supersedes the states. But want to relitigate abortion and same sex marriage. Abortion is semi-reasonable because determining when life begins is debatable. But overturning Obergfell will delegitimize the court completely and make it seen as a means for political activism
    67 replies | 2019 view(s)
  • Krugminator2's Avatar
    06-17-2022, 09:23 AM
    That worked as well as possible. This not so much. That said same view. 1537530936786567169
    110 replies | 6057 view(s)
  • Krugminator2's Avatar
    06-17-2022, 08:49 AM
    The 90s were a golden age for small government people. Spending was flat in inflation adjusted dollars after Republicans took the House in 1994 for Bill Clinton's last six years. Bill Clinton added fewer regulatory employees than any modern President before him. Trade was freer. The United States finished that era 2nd in economic Freedom behind Hong Kong and still ahead of Singapore. It is now 25th. The 1994 Republican Congress was a grand slam homerun success.. Dick Armey was an economist who was a big fan of Mises and was the House Majority leader. Phil Gramm was a Milton Friedman economist. Mark Sanford had a voting record rivaling Ron Paul's for how small government it was.
    8 replies | 369 view(s)
  • Krugminator2's Avatar
    06-13-2022, 02:34 PM
    Pretty big selloff in energy stocks, XLE (along with everything else). Perhaps looking to the future of lower energy prices. This is a more brutal market than the dotcom bust and 2008. Just no let up. Both of the other bear markets had a number of double digit rallies. This has been six months of almost pure liquidation with two small rallies that got smashed almost instantly.
    110 replies | 6057 view(s)
  • Krugminator2's Avatar
    06-12-2022, 12:08 PM
    He's playing politics but he is single best person in the White House right now. He's probably more fiscally conservative than at least half of Trump's appointees. He was very early and very right about inflation and got ridicule from think piece after think piece. One of a hundred examples. First sentence says it all. https://jacobin.com/2021/09/larry-summers-inflation-predictions-biden-stimulus-american-rescue-plan-federal-reserve-treasury He was a pretty good Treasury secretary under Clinton. Was a big deregulatory. He stood up to political correctness at Harvard and got fired. He called Cornell West out for race hustling https://www.nytimes.com/2002/04/16/us/defector-indignant-at-president-of-harvard.html said maybe men went into engineering because there are differences in aptitude between sexes. https://www.theguardian.com/science/2005/jan/18/educationsgendergap.genderissues Harvard has a number of economists on the right and he stood up for them when they were attacked. There was a walkout a decade or so ago from Greg Mankiw's class and I remember Summers being the first to stick up for him. Also wrote a good eulogy for Milton Friedman. https://www.nytimes.com/2006/11/19/opinion/19summers.html He took all the arrows from the left for a decade. I've watched a few YouTube's of him ripping to shreds left wing economists with great arguments. For example https://www.econlib.org/larry-summers-does-a-first-rate-economic-analysis/
    16 replies | 492 view(s)
  • Krugminator2's Avatar
    06-07-2022, 09:56 PM
    There is no stagflation now. The unemployment rate is 3.6%. All 50 states have growing economies. Maybe that will change but not likely until at least 2023. Banks still have a wide spread between short term deposits and longer term loans so despite all the negativity in the press and how people feel, things still look great for a little while longer. M2 growth has already normalized. If the Fed engineers a recession, inflation is probably done as a problem.for a long time. If they ease up, you probably don't get a recession and you have mid single digit inflation if loan growth stays strong.
    557 replies | 78232 view(s)
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