Krugminator2
Member

M2 growth and expectations for future M2 growth determine inflation. Between 2009 and 2019, M2 money only grew at 5% annually. The economy grew at 2.5% annually over time, so the M2 growth rate minus economic growth roughly matched the inflation rate. So that explains the low inflation rate. M2 grew at 26% since Covid hit last year and is projected to grow by double digits in 2021. Higher inflation is a certainty this time. Part of the reason it has been slow to show up is because people have been slow to anticipate inflation because there have been so many inflationistas the last 11 years. This time actually is different. And once the psychology changes people will start to bid up prices. Growth in M2 doesn't have to match the inflation rate if people anticipate the Fed dramatically slowing the growth in M2 in the future. Expectations of monetary policy are far more influential than the current stance of money policy.

The Fed doesn't directly control interest rates. And interest rates don't control inflation. Expectations from people holding cash about future Fed policy is 90% of monetary policy and the biggest impact on how much inflation there will be. The other 10% is the current fluctuations in the growth of the money supply. Interest rates are just a byproduct of actual monetary policy. When rates are ultra low near zero, that is an indication that the Federal Reserve is being too tight with monetary policy not too easy. If the Federal Reserve eased more rates would actually rise as inflation expectations rose. The opposite is also true. When rates are high like the 1970s money was too easy. Had money been tight rates would fall. Rising interest rates don't cause inflation to fall. Interest rate changes are just an effect of changes in expectations about inflation but have no impact on inflation. A current example is Argentina. Overnight bank rates are 38%. Is money super tight there? Of course not. Inflation is insanely high. Monetary policy is too easy.

Seems like a valid criticism whether it is principled or not. Worth noting Trump pushing for $2k stimmies is a big reason this bill passed. It put the Georgia senators in an impossible position and caused them to lose their runoffs.

It is or it would happen. Trade only happens if both sides think a deal makes them better off. I didn't call immigration control socialist. There could be many practical reasons for restricting immigration. I have no sympathy toward the view Tucker espouses view that immigrants take jobs and suppress wages. that is an anti-capitalist viewpoint. There aren't a limited supply of jobs. And for every job an immigrant does that creates demand elsewhere in the economy so the pie grows overall and increases general economic well being.

All rights are property rights. Your right to life and to be free do as please without harming others stems from self ownership.

No. Bannon was also mentioned who advocates massive tax hikes and large scale government works projects. What? No Somalia reference? the job of government is to protect property rights. Regulations make sense only when you don't have clearly defined property rights where you can easily sue people like the environment or in very rare situations where you have systemic risk like nuclear weapons or the bank solvency. Regulations make zero sense in any instance Tucker supports.

I avoid watching Tucker like the plague. But from memory... Wants to ban driverless trucks because truck driver is the most common job in the US and fears job loss. https://www.reddit.com/r/Shitstatistssay/comments/9ubbim/tucker_carlson_wants_to_ban_self_driving_trucks/ This whole rant about mergers http://www.ronpaulforums.com/showthread.php?541647-Tucker-Carlson-What-is-destroying-rural-America&highlight=cabelas+nebraska Wants to cap credit card interest rates and limit access to credit https://thehill.com/homenews/media/443242-tucker-carlson-says-sanders-ocasio-cortez-are-absolutely-indisputably-right-on

George Will and Bill Kristol have next to nothing in common politically outside of disliking Trump. George Will has good solid libertarian views and I am fine calling myself a George Will Republican. George Will is 95% the same as Ron Paul on the actual issues.

I would vote for 100% of the Republican politicians on that list and contribute to their campaigns if AOC were an opponent of theirs and had a legitimate chance to win.

I also can't get over how MANY people think capitalism is failing and the US is awful and how capitalism exploits people and business owners are bad and the people who sit with their thumbs up their ass are the real heroes because they didn't have the lucky breaks some rich white guy which enabled him to exploit the poor unwashed masses.

I don't know if these people always existed and social media brings them out but I cannot believe how far left the left is. Yesterday standard journalists were decrying unpaid internships. And the whole white privilege and making them illegal was trotted out as a mainstream idea. When Texas had the power issues, a company Griddy which is cheaper 96% of the time because they price things at the market instead of hedging and making the consumers pay for the hedge had a sudden spike in prices because of the supply shock. I saw not one person outside of the person who came up with the idea of deregulation defend deregulation of Texas energy. It worked like it should have. Then I saw Jerry Jones' energy company was high fiving on their conference call because of energy prices spiking in Texas. Instead of being hailed as a hero for providing energy when there is shortage, he was universally derided and you have even "conservatives" like Ted Cruz arguing for price gouging price control laws.

I stopped out of both silver and soybeans. Will keep on the radar because think one day silver has a nice move left.

I don't see how this isn't obvious. Trump's businesses are hospitality related and many are based in New York City. The golf course revenue dropped to nothing during Covid. Hotel revenue plunged. And the properties in New York City got crushed because of people fleeing NYC https://www.forbes.com/sites/advisor/2020/10/23/manhattan-real-estate-fizzles-as-prices-demand-plummets/?sh=59178f46fbbc These conspiratorial threads about how Trump is making BILLIONS as a result of being president are factually untrue. https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2021/01/trump-organization-revenue-declined-40-percent-in-2020.html

Silver not looking so hot but still have it. Bought a bunch of soybeans today.

M2 grew at 5.8% from 2009 to 2020. Has grown 26% in the last year. This time is different. Inflation is now a real concern. 1364044709849612289

That number is revenue not income. Like him or hate him being President has likely done irreparable harm to Trump financially. It has not helped him. He is likely in serious trouble right now. It is beyond ridiculous. I imagine anyone who writes that Trump benefited financially from being president looks something like this.

I bought AGQ today. Will exit if it trades much below the low of the day. Don't love the trade because everyone else is looking at it but worth a try. One of these times likely to catch a nice trend in silver.

Agreed. The reason Reagan and Thatcher got elected was a backlash against left-wing policies and the pain of inflation. Probably the only advantage of a gold standard is it links spending and the consequences of spending more directly. People love free stuff. If there is no immediate consequence to these stimulus bills, people will push and push until there is a tidal wave.

Wall Street has never been more fair for the average trader than today. Brokerage costs are low. High frequency trading has dramatically reduced the costs for small traders. Twitter, free websites like Finviz and Yahoo Finance, and the SEC have democratized access to information. Wall Street isn't screwing the little guy. Wall Street allow participation in business and makes it so a person with a little starting capital the ability to make millions and it has never been easier. I couldn't even imagine how hard it was 30 years ago. No one is screwing you. https://mobile.twitter.com/markminervini/status/1362548855015890954

Capital requirements (and a few pollution rules) are pretty much the only regulation in any industry that makes sense. It is really hard for depositors to go bust with capital requirements. It is a very simple regulation that works. Lehman Brothers doesn't fail with adequate capital requirements. You can eliminate all the other BS rules that prevent start up firms just by focusing on capital requirements.

Yeah it's crazy town in some of these threads. All the ridiculous arguments used for censorship of tech companies and antitrust were literally the same arguments Ayn Rand was shooting down in 1963. America’s Persecuted Minority: Big Business https://courses.aynrand.org/works/americas-persecuted-minority-big-business/

The doubled the Department of Education was a talking point related to W. bush not Reagan. Foreign aid makes up zero percent of the budget. The Department of Energy oversees the nuclear arsenal. Worth noting Reagan the peace president negotiated the mutual disarmament of nukes with the Soviets that remains in effect today. He vetoed numerous spending bills and spending as a share of gdp was lower when he left office than when he took office.

Budgets originate in the House. The Dems had 100+ vote majorities in the House. https://history.house.gov/Institution/Party-Divisions/74-Present/ It is a popular talking point to shit on Reagan for spending but what should Reagan have done? Point a gun at their heads and start executing people until they voted to cut spending. He pushed a balanced budget amendment that got voted down. https://www.washingtonpost.com/archive/politics/1982/10/02/reagan-defeated-on-balanced-budget/3684bcc2-b328-4343-bc18-a4a88859a595/ https://www.washingtonpost.com/archive/politics/1981/04/10/in-blow-to-reagan-senate-unit-rejects-1982-budget-plan/25318b1a-6f30-46e3-b4b3-b1282af03a52/ Reagan vetoed numerous spending bills https://www.nytimes.com/1982/06/26/us/reagan-vetoes-2d-spending-bill-calling-it-excessive-by-1-billion.html https://www.latimes.com/archives/la-xpm-1985-11-16-mn-2748-story.html The reality is Reagan did a great job on spending relative to the circumstances. That is in contrast to Trump who had a Republican House and Senate majorities.

Larry Summers is great. He is the reason Bill Clinton was one of (if not the) best modern presidents on economic issues. He is left of center but he has always been a real economist. He understands how insane stimulus is right now. Unemployment is 6% and falling. Incomes are at all time highs. Consumer debt is at all time lows. Asset prices are at all time highs. The last thing the economy needs is stimulus.