• Krugminator2's Avatar
    03-22-2019, 09:34 PM
    No. But the Fed is supposed to try to prevent economic downturns. The yield curve is the best predictor of recession. If it is inverting, you should certainly not be hiking and probably give serious thought to cutting short term rates.
    10 replies | 199 view(s)
  • Krugminator2's Avatar
    03-22-2019, 09:32 PM
    As I explained, government spending uses resources. Tax cuts don't. That's all the difference in the world. Let's say the government currently spends 4 trillion and runs a 1 trillion deficit. If the government cut spending in half and eliminated taxes you would have a two trillion dollar deficit. If the government increased spending to $7 trillion and hiked taxes by $2 trillion, you would have a $2 trillion deficit also. Those have two radically different implications for the economy.
    10 replies | 199 view(s)
  • Krugminator2's Avatar
    03-22-2019, 05:29 PM
    Steve Moore is an idiot but nothing you said is contradictory. (He has contradicted himself big time on trade, which you did not mention.) He is an old school supply sider and everything you mentioned is consistent with how supply siders have been since they first became a thing. They tend to favor a gold standard. He believed QE was too loose and extreme. Now that rates have ticked up and the yield curve is inverting, he thinks the Fed should not tighten. Criticizing budget deficits from government fiscal stimulus is not in anyway the same as being indifferent to budget deficits from tax cuts. You always equate spending hikes with tax cuts. There is a big difference. Spending hikes if done on government projects take up resources. Think Solyndra and Cash for Clunkers. Tax cuts expend no additional resources. They are just made up with government debt instruments, so they are a wash. And tax cuts like cutting corporate income taxes can change incentives to spur more production and higher standards of living. Whereas spending increases like expanding long term unemployment benefits have negative consequences by incentivizing people to be unemployed. I am a fiscal conservative. I am totally indifferent to debt from tax cuts. I have a big problem with debt from government spending.
    10 replies | 199 view(s)
  • Krugminator2's Avatar
    03-20-2019, 11:10 AM
    I have read all of his books. To sum up his philosophy, he believes markets work to the extent that they provide feedback and pure Marxism doesn't work because you need markets to communicate information. So his conclusion is you need markets but wise central planners need to steer them. He sees bubbles and market failure everywhere. He is very in favor of government intervention through regulation and the Federal Reserve and believes in institutions like the UN. He chronically thinks the world is ending (like Ron Paul unfortunately) and believes the only way to save it is for wise elites to curb the excesses. And of course when the regulators inevitably get it wrong he never learns the lesson that regulations have costs too. He is very instinctive and not logical and borderline incoherent in the way he expresses himself. I think he is sincere. He just has this view that everything would be great if only you had the right planners forming the right institutions in power.
    39 replies | 492 view(s)
  • Krugminator2's Avatar
    03-20-2019, 08:35 AM
    That's never happened actually. Capitalism creates a horn of plenty where ultimately the "poor" are not poor in any meaningful since of the world. Welfare in the United States pays much more than the median income of Mexico.
    60 replies | 481 view(s)
  • Krugminator2's Avatar
    03-18-2019, 05:44 PM
    To be clear, I am for eliminating the Federal Reserve. I just have a much more nuanced take on it. I think it has done a really bad job for most its existence and done a lot more harm than good. But in more recent times, I don't think it has been the creator all evils that some portray it. The biggest problem I see now with the Fed is it gives way to much power to one institution. And if you have someone like AOC who appoints the Fed chair, I think you could have major problems. But I do think Ben Bernanke was the exact right person to have in charge to deal with the financial crisis.
    30 replies | 645 view(s)
  • Krugminator2's Avatar
    03-18-2019, 10:37 AM
    I have a better idea. Instead of anti-slavery people leaving the state, politicians who reinstate slavery (which is exactly what requiring military or militia service is) can leave the earth- in a body bag. Drafting someone into a militia or the military is the most evil thing a government can do. "Of all the statist violations of individual rights in a mixed economy, the military draft is the worst......One of the notions used by all sides to justify the draft, is that “rights impose obligations.” Obligations, to whom?—and imposed, by whom? Ideologically, that notion is worse than the evil it attempts to justify: it implies that rights are a gift from the state, and that a man has to buy them by offering something (his life) in return. " Ayn 3:16 http://aynrandlexicon.com/lexicon/draft.html
    39 replies | 646 view(s)
  • Krugminator2's Avatar
    03-16-2019, 07:56 PM
    I don't think people understand what makes a country successful. Freedom is hard to understand. Smart sounding rationalizations sound good in the moment and people give in. People are very short-sighted. Is that you a typo? I have never tried to shit stir drama. I didn't read any part of this thread other than the title before I posted.
    467 replies | 4480 view(s)
  • Krugminator2's Avatar
    03-16-2019, 07:01 PM
    It is funny to me people acting like New Zealand politicians are so sophisticated for immediately banning guns. All they did was exploit a tragic event to pass what they wanted to pass before. New Zealand is one of the most economically free countries and they decided to elect a literal socialist because nothing fails like success. I would bet with almost certainty that their leader wanted to do this long before this event. "Emergencies' have always been the pretext on which the safeguards of individual liberty have been eroded." -FA Hayek
    467 replies | 4480 view(s)
  • Krugminator2's Avatar
    03-16-2019, 05:42 PM
    Slavery was abolished. And thank god Milton Friedman and Ayn Rand laid the foundation for ending the draft.
    39 replies | 646 view(s)
  • Krugminator2's Avatar
    03-16-2019, 05:38 PM
    I mean. What? This is *almost* as anti-liberty as taking away AR-15's. What a terrible idea. And no. The government should not be giving tax breaks for owning guns. Just like the government should not be giving tax breaks to buy Teslas or homes or solar panels or having kids and just like the government shouldn't be putting extra taxes on things like sodas or cigarettes.
    39 replies | 646 view(s)
  • Krugminator2's Avatar
    03-15-2019, 04:20 PM
    Krugminator2 replied to a thread Stocks: Market Crash Looming in Economy & Markets
    I got the short wrong a few weeks back and slammed my fingers in the car door with that one. I got the short semi-wrong at the end of 2017 even though I made money on it. I was a month early But yeah, that was pretty obvious long the other day. I am glad someone read these. I have probably posted 7 or 8 short term calls in etfs like silver and oil over the years and gotten them correct though you have to be nimble exiting those. And I have pretty good track record when I post about stuff here even though it is small part of what I do. (BTW traded every single call except the initial Bitcoin short, though I did short it subsequently.) I said the morning of the bottom in December was a once a decade opportunity. The SPY is up 20% since. http://www.ronpaulforums.com/showthread.php?529531-This-Was-The-Worst-Week-For-The-Stock-Market-Since-The-Financial-Crisis-Of-2008&p=6725279#post6725279 You can see who what I wrote during the selloff in Feb. http://www.ronpaulforums.com/showthread.php?214118-Market-Crash-Looming/page99 I called the bottom in gold +/- a couple of days and roughly the bottom in miners with pretty good reasoning. http://www.ronpaulforums.com/showthread.php?214118-Market-Crash-Looming/page103&highlight=krugminator2+gold+miners Bitcoin short was right +/- 1 day. Alio Gold which I sent you basically played out with the tax loss selling ending. USAS had the drop and the bounce though that wasn't a very good call. I did a write up on Maxlinear which is a real company three or four years back and that basically doubled from the day I wrote it. http://www.ronpaulforums.com/showthread.php?487169-The-big-thread-full-of-stock-picks&highlight=maxlinear
    3116 replies | 386217 view(s)
  • Krugminator2's Avatar
    03-15-2019, 02:38 PM
    I was hoping to see this highlight when I clicked on this thread.
    24 replies | 585 view(s)
  • Krugminator2's Avatar
    03-14-2019, 06:01 PM
    The reason you have insurance is protect against the catastrophic and unpredictable. If you hit someone with your car, you need insurance to protect your income if you get sued. If you get stomach cancer and the bill is 500k, maybe you can cover that with money in the cookie jar. Most can't And if someone is the breadwinner in a family, having life insurance makes sense. That isn't a function of being poor, unless you define being poor as having less than $10 million banked. The cost of insurance is small relative to the risk. Insurance companies do make money. They should. You are transferring risk. And insurance is a bet you should lose on over time. And you should hope you lose money on insurance. But playing Russian roulette isn't a financial strategy.
    38 replies | 989 view(s)
  • Krugminator2's Avatar
    03-12-2019, 06:35 PM
    Here's an unpopular take for a Ron Paul supporter. I think the Fed since Volcker has done a pretty good job. And I think Ben Bernanke did a remarkably good job handling the financial crisis. I get the criticism of the Fed from Ron because of the time he started forming his political views. The 1970's especially were a dumpster fire. The Great Depression was entirely the fault of the Federal Reserve. Mises and Hayek grew up with hyperinflation in Austria and saw it in Germany. But inflation over the last 4 decades has been pretty low for a fiat currency in the US. Volcker put Milton Friedman's ideas of targeting money supply to end out of control inflation. You had an Ayn Rand gold standard guy in Alan Greenspan. Ben Bernanke was a Milton Friedman guy. And the conventional view at the Fed has largely been influenced by Volcker, Greenspan, and Bernanke. Yellin is a little more to the left. Powell isn't terrible. What I am saying is things could be A LOT worse in terms of monetary policy. If the MMT people or the Keynesians of the old school socialist variety were in charge inflation could actually be a problem again. It is worth having a little perspective. Things could be better. They could also be a whole lot worse.
    30 replies | 645 view(s)
  • Krugminator2's Avatar
    03-12-2019, 11:38 AM
    Zero chance. Tucker gets ratings. Fox generally sticks by people and there are people who have said worse things on the network now. He would stay even with a major boycott.
    43 replies | 911 view(s)
  • Krugminator2's Avatar
    03-09-2019, 02:43 PM
    Kind of crazy how good both teams are at home. UMich's only home loss was to MSU and not sure if MSU has lost at home or not. Maybe 1 home loss.
    113 replies | 792 view(s)
  • Krugminator2's Avatar
    03-08-2019, 05:15 PM
    Mitt Romney >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> Bernietard John Bolton is better for liberty than her. This crackpot will cost the country a lot more than what is spent on on the military. It is cool and all that she wants to get out of Syria. Too bad the pennies saved on that will be replaced by hundred dollar bills in Medicare for all. The last thing the country needs is another free shit candidate. It hurts my eyes looking at her platform. https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/what-does-rep-tulsi-gabbard-believe-where-the-candidate-stands-on-7-issues Climate change: Mandate an end to the use of fossil fuels for electricity by 2050. Ban fracking.
    85 replies | 1668 view(s)
  • Krugminator2's Avatar
    03-08-2019, 04:54 PM
    Krugminator2 replied to a thread Stocks: Market Crash Looming in Economy & Markets
    Today is one of the single most short term bullish days you will see. 92% chance market closes higher over the next 7 days.
    3116 replies | 386217 view(s)
  • Krugminator2's Avatar
    03-06-2019, 05:40 PM
    So this has been tried. Never works. Sweden did .5%. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Swedish_financial_transaction_tax They collected less than 1% of projected revenue. Killed their options market. Made their bond market so illiquid that it made the cost of borrowing higher and their stock market was permanently lower in line with lower capital investment. .1% is an insane number. Just use the math on this. If someone just rebalanced a portfolio quarterly you would have be giving the government a half percent of returns a year. Market makers might turn over their portfolio 20 times in a day. These people are idiots.
    43 replies | 992 view(s)
  • Krugminator2's Avatar
    03-05-2019, 08:55 PM
    I have always thought people should have to buy citizenship. This is just an extension of that. Obviously someone is chirping in Rand's ear that this has long been an idea free market economists have pushed. https://bfi.uchicago.edu/news/news/gary-becker-explains-benefits-setting-price-immigration
    31 replies | 359 view(s)
  • Krugminator2's Avatar
    03-05-2019, 05:30 PM
    I am for mandatory vaccination. I think it can be argued both ways. But it is incredibly dishonest to call Rand an anti-vaxxer like so many of the articles I see. It is so disgusting that "journalists" write crap like this. https://www.thedailybeast.com/rand-paul-sure-vaccines-are-ok-but-we-shouldnt-trade-liberty-for-false-sense-of-security/ And it is also disgusting when Rand says vaccines can have side effects and people say he is therefore promoting conspiracy theories about vaccines. He was reading right from the CDC site. This is one of those issues that causes people to melt down and not argue in good faith.
    24 replies | 645 view(s)
  • Krugminator2's Avatar
    03-04-2019, 02:49 PM
    Imagine if Obama did this for a pet project. The screams of tyranny would be shrill. If this happens, you are going to have national emergencies for gun control, climate change, poverty, the education crisis. This is most short sighted fucking thing I have ever seen. This is like Trump wanting to nuke the filibuster. He doesn't care. He doesn't have live with the consequences of giving the Democrats unlimited power under the next Dem President and Senate.
    430 replies | 5645 view(s)
  • Krugminator2's Avatar
    03-03-2019, 06:19 PM
    Worth noting, Rand is the deciding vote on this. Kind of puts that unproven and always wrong theory that he only votes for something if he knows it won't count (which there are zero instances of that being the case). 1102255271299244033
    430 replies | 5645 view(s)
  • Krugminator2's Avatar
    03-03-2019, 04:03 PM
    This is actually an important vote where people would be right to criticize Rand had he voted for an emergency declaration. I would have been very disappointed had he voted for this in contrast to the other votes he is criticized for which 99% of the time the people who criticize are retards.
    430 replies | 5645 view(s)
  • Krugminator2's Avatar
    03-01-2019, 11:00 PM
    The draft is the most evil thing a government can do its citizens. It is interesting how many regressive leftists are in favor of both women having to register for selective service and how many favor an actual draft because they think the military is disproportionately poor and minority. So they favor slavery in the name of social justice. Just awful people.
    14 replies | 287 view(s)
  • Krugminator2's Avatar
    03-01-2019, 09:24 PM
    Kyrie is clearly Boston's best player but he is a cancer. They did great without him last year. I don't know what it is with so many of these guys. Kyrie, Russell Westbrook, Anthony Davis, Carmelo Anthony a few years back but there is just something missing with them. I don't know how to describe it. But guys like Tatum and Steph Curry seem like winners and better fits to build teams around.
    71 replies | 3371 view(s)
  • Krugminator2's Avatar
    02-27-2019, 09:47 PM
    It is funny to me that every single person who makes the environment a top issue is an anti-progress socialist. It is always strange that the Communist Party marches in the environmental rallies. It is almost as if environmentalism has nothing to do with the environment and is another redistribution scheme to make the US poorer and less free.
    80 replies | 2027 view(s)
  • Krugminator2's Avatar
    02-26-2019, 05:27 PM
    I got the highest score out of around 200 on the Chemistry final exam. I also took 4 physics classes. I didn't learn anything about anthrax or bioweapons or skyscrapers melting. Thomas Jefferson died broke. His views on education are terrible. He should have been a little less liberal arts. A little more focused on one subject. More people getting film studies degrees doesn't make society better off. Real degrees have value. But most of the kids whining about debt and tuition costs are people who didn't get a marketable skill. This idea that more college grads would benefit society is wrong. Anyone who wants to go will go now. Fewer people should go to college. More people should get into trades. More nurses. And leftists tend to have this notion that just getting a college degree makes someone smarter and superior. I will take the average plumber over 90% of humanities majors.
    56 replies | 1409 view(s)
  • Krugminator2's Avatar
    02-26-2019, 05:14 PM
    1. Education is expensive because the cost is divorced from the user. Subsidized student loans are the primary driver of cost. At some point the education tuition bubble will pop. The cost isn't going to continue to outpace inflation forever. 2. Most people don't pay 70k a year to attend Yale unless you got in because your parents donated money. Most private schools have a retail sticker price and it is reduced for all sorts of reasons. They do this as a way of maximizing revenue because there are some people who will be willing/able to pay it. And most of the people who attend Yale have substantial outside scholarships. I think that is true of every humanities degree and liberal arts degree.
    56 replies | 1409 view(s)
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