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    Today, 06:48 AM
    What you just said is completely incoherent. You can reread the last sentence of my last post. If Biden won all 50 states you would still have been wrong in your assessment.
    63 replies | 782 view(s)
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    Today, 06:41 AM
    So you rephrased exactly what I said. I am not backing anyone. I have no opinion who will win other than what the markets say. The markets say the race is even or Trump is a slight favorite. You said Trump was toast, which disagrees with the most accurate measure of reality. In fact if you possessed such great insight you would become the richest person in the world if you made enough bets getting 1 to 1 odds where the actual odds are "toast". Biden winning doesn't mean you were right just like Trump winning wouldn't mean I was right. Biden is going to win nearly half the time.
    63 replies | 782 view(s)
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    Today, 06:14 AM
    Actually the betting sites were surprisingly accurate. Pundits and models thought Hillary was a sure thing. Saw a lot of models put Hillary at 95%+ https://www.huffpost.com/entry/nate-silver-election-forecast_n_581e1c33e4b0d9ce6fbc6f7f The betting sites had trump as a 3 to 1 or 4 to 1 underdog around the election. https://wgntv.com/news/politics/what-are-the-odds-of-trump-clinton-winning-the-2016-presidential-election/ "The gambling firms showed Clinton's odds of winning were roughly 80% on Tuesday. https://money.cnn.com/2016/11/09/news/betting-election-donald-trump-win/index.html In retrospect 3 to 1 was probably just about right. Everything went Trump's way and he won a very close election. Lost the popular vote and won a bunch of states by the skin of his teeth. The markets right now say the election is nearly even money, which objectively means Trump is far from toast. Arguing with markets is a good way to lose money. Or perhaps you have created models and made millions betting, in which case disregard what I said.
    63 replies | 782 view(s)
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    Yesterday, 09:49 PM
    It is essentially a toss up. But Trump is the favorite. I know this because markets say he is the favorite. Markets are better predictor of the future than opinions and polls. https://www.electionbettingodds.com/ https://www.oddschecker.com/politics/us-politics/us-presidential-election-2020/winner
    63 replies | 782 view(s)
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    04-07-2020, 07:51 PM
    I haven't heard him mentioned in months. But are you saying he attacks Trump and Bannon too much and is hypocritical for not attacking Candace Owens? Is he supposed to go on the offensive against conservatives at every opportunity? Trying to figure out what your complaint is. Kind of makes sense he would attack Bannon (because that was his former employer) and Trump (the president) over some random internet person.
    2 replies | 155 view(s)
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    04-07-2020, 07:35 PM
    1245897668057919492 Michael Burry, of The Big Short fame and also medical school grad, called this stock market selloff and shorted stocks in size has been offering up takes that basically agree with what I think. He says the lockdown is insane. The cost outweighs the benefits by orders of magnitude. The people chortling that Trump is an idiot for pushing a drug that might work and has few negatives are idiots. And the relevant part of this thread is he says the Fed should stop paying interest on reserves. A big reason QE never caused inflation is because banks just hold the cash instead of lending it. The Fed likely wouldn't have needed to expand their balance sheets to this degree if they weren't paying banks to not lend money.
    3 replies | 203 view(s)
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    04-07-2020, 03:05 PM
    Donald Trump has a 49.4% to be reelected. Biden has a 41% chance to win. https://www.electionbettingodds.com/ Markets > Pundits and pollsters.
    63 replies | 782 view(s)
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    04-06-2020, 06:53 PM
    That is my take. I just reread my comments and I could see how they would be perceived as harsh. I think a lot of it depends on your perception of who a homeless person is. I live in the Ann Arbor area which attracts a ton of freeloaders. And even this communist city is fed up with these people. I can promise you they aren't fishing for food and they aren't just down and out people people beaten down by big government. They are loathsome people gaming the system. They give puppy dog eyes all the while making a couple hundred bucks a day and then scamming the government out of money. These articles are par for the course. http://www.annarbor.com/news/panhandlers-paradise-one-mans-story-about-begging-on-the-streets-of-ann-arbor-and-what-city-official/ http://www.annarbor.com/news/crime/handling-panhandlers/ https://www.michiganradio.org/post/new-campaign-asks-ann-arbor-visitors-stop-giving-money-panhandlers https://www.newsbreak.com/michigan/ann-arbor/news/0OIXeSsw/ann-arbors-most-prolific-and-well-known-panhandler-dies-at-66
    26 replies | 567 view(s)
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    04-05-2020, 07:36 PM
    Didn't say it would. I think this is far more serious than 2008. The monetary intervention in 2008 worked, though it should have been faster and to a much larger extent which would have enabled interest rates to get closer to normal. I am classical liberal with conservative leanings which precludes most libertarian sites, which tend to be somewhat leftist. I like to debate. Also inertia and habit. Why are you here? Took the time to look up these posts I remembered. Still looking to kill all the gays?
    18 replies | 488 view(s)
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    04-05-2020, 05:02 PM
    What percentage of homeless people in California are rugged individualists who would know how to survive by fishing? I am guessing .01%.
    26 replies | 567 view(s)
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    04-05-2020, 04:38 PM
    A disaster relief check isn't going to help a homeless person. If anything, they, along with current welfare recipients, are the people least affected by this whole thing. In fact, it actually doesn't make any economic sense to cut them a $1200 check. And I highly doubt easier access to fishing will change anything. They are homeless for a reason.
    26 replies | 567 view(s)
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    04-05-2020, 02:48 PM
    If if he didn't sign the disaster relief package we would be looking at Depression levels of unemployment for as far as the eye can see. No amount of Jesus or mystical thinking would change that. We still might see it if he keeps business closed for much longer. But I am much more confident that Trump will factor in the economy that a Democrat.
    18 replies | 488 view(s)
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    04-05-2020, 01:20 PM
    Yeah. He's not.
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    04-04-2020, 06:22 PM
    This seems kind of problematic. https://therealdeal.com/2020/04/03/nations-biggest-department-stores-could-run-out-of-funds-in-a-month-goldman-sachs/?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter I feel like people saying the economy should stay shut down for a month have no idea the tidal wave that could be coming. I found this from JP Morgan study of small business in 2016 https://institute.jpmorganchase.com/institute/research/small-business/insight-cash-is-king.htm I originally thought the would be nothing. But closing the world economy for months is going to take years to recover from. Most businesses are highly levered and weren't equipped to have a total shutdown.
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    04-04-2020, 05:39 PM
    Trump is a disgrace and doing an overall terrible job with the virus. But he had better win reelection. MMT and an avalanche of crazy is coming if a Democrat is the next president. It is going to be a free for all of people with their hands out trying to live off everyone else in a Democratic presidency.
    18 replies | 488 view(s)
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    04-03-2020, 05:02 PM
    If I had to guess what you are talking about, I think FDR wanted people to snitch on people who didn't buy union made products at artificially high prices from government approved dealers. I think it was called Blue Eagle, though there doesn't seem to be a lot of info on the snitching part. "Though membership to the NRA was voluntary, businesses that did not display the eagle were very often boycotted, making it seem mandatory for survival to many." https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Recovery_Administration
    10 replies | 272 view(s)
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    04-03-2020, 09:52 AM
    The country has over 300 million people. Every adult bought hand sanitizer and disinfecting wipes over the last few weeks. Demand has outpaced the ability to produce and distribute. This is the same for every crisis like hurricanes and the price of water.
    7 replies | 449 view(s)
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    04-02-2020, 08:30 PM
    I was going to say something too. There are two groups of people oblivious to this. People who already have a ton of money and aren't productive any longer (if they ever were) and super broke people happy to see the world come down to their level. The look of despair on the owner of one of the businesses that I frequent and is still open is palpable. I am usually optimistic but I have a hard time believing life will be back to normal for most businesses any time soon if ever. It is very easy for me to imagine towns of boarded up commercial real estate for years. And the people who think charity is going to cover the shortfall of 30% unemployment are a special brand of stupid.
    42 replies | 723 view(s)
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    04-02-2020, 08:01 PM
    I was just telling my parents in their 70s that the other day the same thing. They should expose themselves to something that has 10% chance of killing them and will give them permanently diminished lung function to build up their immune system. I said who cares if a million people in the US die. Got to go some way. And then I let them know that I saw a doctor/chiropractor on Youtube, who has a degree from a college in the Caribbean that isn't accredited by the brain washing US, say that the Coronavirus is no big deal. It's just the flu. Nothing to worry about. People just toughed the Spanish Flu out. Bunch of weaklings today.
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    04-02-2020, 05:01 PM
    1245829622576459778
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    04-01-2020, 07:55 PM
    We had the longest economic expansion in US history and he was dooming the whole time. If you listened to him, you missed a market that went up five fold. Recessions happen. 2008 was just the start? That was 12 years ago. How the does that help anyone make money who isn't an immortal vampire who will live forever? I guess if you plan on living for 2000 years maybe he is "right".
    114 replies | 21096 view(s)
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    04-01-2020, 06:01 PM
    Right about what? He was wrong about everything. We weren't in a depression in 2010. Gold didn't go to $5000. The stock market has still quadrupled since he was dooming in 2008 even after this sell off. If you listened to Schiff you missed the bull market of a lifetime. Couldn't have been more wrong. That is a fact.
    114 replies | 21096 view(s)
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    04-01-2020, 05:50 PM
    Yes very prophetic in a Miss Cleo/tarot card reader sort of way. Not actually sure I have ever seen someone be more wrong, more of the time than Schiff. Was he prophetic in 2010 Peter Schiff: U.S. Is in a Depression https://www.thestreet.com/investing/stocks/peter-schiff-us-is-in-a-depression-10790377 How about 2011 "Peter Schiff: Why it’s time to dump most U.S. stocks https://www.investmentnews.com/peter-schiff-why-its-time-to-dump-most-u-s-stocks-31335 Was this prophetic in 2012 "Peter Schiff: Gold to $5,000 in Two Years" https://www.cnbc.com/video/2012/10/25/peter-schiff-gold-to-5000-in-two-years.html How about 2013 Economist Peter Schiff Forecasts Second Crisis to Hit Around 2013 https://ivn.us/2012/10/28/peter-schiff-who-predicted-the-financial-crisis-forecasts-the-worst-to-come-around-2013-2
    114 replies | 21096 view(s)
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    04-01-2020, 09:57 AM
    Maybe. That probably is true. I don't see any need to hasten the process of going to zero though. I am in favor of delaying the adjustment of having 20%+ of population unemployed for as long as possible. Not something I am embracing with open arms.
    114 replies | 21096 view(s)
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    04-01-2020, 09:32 AM
    The thread right below this is about bartering. You might think depressions are fun and cool. And suicides and all loss of meaning in life because job losses are great. I don't share that view. I don't want to go anywhere near a world where people are back to living like savages and bartering.
    114 replies | 21096 view(s)
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    04-01-2020, 09:15 AM
    Nobody is saying it creates wealth. Peter Schiff again being a buffoon who continues to embarrass free market people. It does however avoid debt deflation. Governments have also destroyed economies by just letting the world go to hell. See United States 1929-1933. What you call Austrian is just Rothbardian. Hayek didn't agree at all. https://www.themoneyillusion.com/what-did-hayek-really-think-of-deflation/ https://www.coordinationproblem.org/2011/05/hayek-on-deflation.html
    114 replies | 21096 view(s)
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    03-31-2020, 03:26 PM
    He is calling them out for not being full fledged communists like him. I agree with Ron on 99% of economic issues.
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    03-31-2020, 03:13 PM
    So basically this guy had the worst of all worlds take. Doesn't want to help businesses get through a government induced liquidity crunch but does want individuals to stop paying bills and delivery people to stop working until the government gives them ten times more handouts. Not a good ally.
    35 replies | 867 view(s)
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    03-31-2020, 10:08 AM
    The plunge protection team would have no reason to be in the market right now. The market isn't plunging. Rational would be for the markets to go up. You had historically oversold on all time frames, massive QE and a fiscal bill that is 10% of GDP. Trump is bulling up an infrastructure bill. I think/hope volatility comes back after April 1. Would be nice to see one more sell off attempt. No rational reason to be bearish now. Once in a decade bull opportunity setting up.
    129 replies | 6608 view(s)
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