• Krugminator2's Avatar
    Yesterday, 01:17 PM
    Here are the following books I have read by Austrians. Have the physical copies nicely dogeared, underlined and coffee stained on all but Rothbard's which I got from the library system. 1. Human Action 2. Theory of Money and Credit 3. America's Great Depression 4. Economics in One Lesson 5. Road to Serfdom 6. The Constitution of Liberty 7. The Fatal Conceit
    38 replies | 762 view(s)
  • Krugminator2's Avatar
    Yesterday, 10:18 AM
    Makes sense but what does that have to do with the fact that most businesses and people aren't smart about their money? 1243885552853753857
    38 replies | 762 view(s)
  • Krugminator2's Avatar
    Yesterday, 08:41 AM
    That part is true. The Fed actively pursued a deflationary policy as interventionist Rothbard advocated. They tightened credit to protect the dollar and caused incomes to fall which made it harder to service debt which led to a spiral of bankruptcies. Deflation caused the first part of the Great Depression. It was THE reason. And that intervention was a major government failure. So you think union rules, tariffs, tax hikes and public works projects like the Hoover Dam caused the stock market to fall 86%? Those things didn't ever cause cause the stock market to drop 86% and unemployment over 20% before or since. Wonder why. Real puzzler. Maybe discarding that theory would be worthwhile.
    38 replies | 762 view(s)
  • Krugminator2's Avatar
    03-27-2020, 07:09 PM
    I am sure telling people in towns of boarded up restaurants and small businesses that a new management team is all that is needed to get things started will be real effective. Given that this is the single most interesting topic to me and I have thought about this very topic and debated it for the last decade, I suspect I have read any author you could mention and have considered their opinion. I strongly suspect you have read exactly zero people that I have mentioned. Start with listening to what Milton Friedman said about the depression and then try to refute.
    38 replies | 762 view(s)
  • Krugminator2's Avatar
    03-27-2020, 06:27 PM
    This isn't a stimulus like public works projects. Obama's plan was just a bunch of programs like short term tax cuts and programs like cash for clunkers. It was Keynesian stimulus (which has a mixed record) to boost spending. This bill has little to do with stimulus and everything to do with avoiding the systemic risk of bankruptcies. That is why most of it is loans to backstop businesses and the remainder is checks to keep people paying bills. We had a depression in the 1930's called the Great Depression. It was caused by letting banks fail which caused depositors not to be able to pays debts which caused more bank failures and a money supply collapse which caused people throughout the economy not be able to service debt. It was a never ending spiral. Those bankruptcies took years to settle. How did the let things go to hell method work? The Peter Schiff method was a decade of pain. What happens if you just let things work themselves out right now? Think hard. If people don't pay rent, the property management companies can't pay their mortgage and they fold. If corporations in vulnerable industries like hospitality start folding, you are talking about tens of millions of people whose jobs are at stake. Bankruptcies mean layoffs and they also mean a complete halt to new investment. What happens if investment halts throughout the entire economy for years while bankruptcies get settled?
    38 replies | 762 view(s)
  • Krugminator2's Avatar
    03-27-2020, 06:07 PM
    Safe to say I won't be getting a check so nothing to spend. The fact that you are comparing this to interventions of Bush and Obama (both of which I would oppose) shows you don't understand the situation at all.
    38 replies | 762 view(s)
  • Krugminator2's Avatar
    03-27-2020, 06:02 PM
    I basically agree with his analysis. It is a nice critique of the problems with all of this intervention. But the problem is he thinks things will just work themselves out if you do nothing. He thinks the Great Depression was just some accident from tariffs or whatever. If you just let everyone go bankrupt right now, you will have a spiral that will take years if not a decade or more to get through. I heard the stories from grandparents of the Great Depression. That is something that I don't want to experience. There is no good solution to this.
    38 replies | 762 view(s)
  • Krugminator2's Avatar
    03-27-2020, 05:52 PM
    There has been such a massive buildup in private sector corporate debt. If you do nothing, you could have years of 20% unemployment. That situation won't hold. The bolded part in the article below is why I favor the nuclear weapons the Fed and government are using but I think we are in for a lot pain and potential systemic risk. The problem is this is a Faustian bargain. These actions just get us through the short term This whole thing is a massive experiment for high stakes and I am not so sure we are going to come out it as a great country. The country needs to reduce leverage to survive. This isn't over when the virus abates. https://www.guggenheiminvestments.com/perspectives/global-cio-outlook/the-2020-faustian-bargain?utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=social&utm_term=scott+minerd&utm_content=global+cio+outlook&utm_campaign=the+2020+faustian+bargain
    38 replies | 762 view(s)
  • Krugminator2's Avatar
    03-27-2020, 02:11 PM
    Ok doomer. "Global Poverty Decline Denialism" https://reason.com/2019/01/31/global-poverty-decline-denialism/
    13 replies | 1320 view(s)
  • Krugminator2's Avatar
    03-27-2020, 11:25 AM
    Global poverty rate drops to record low 10%: World Bank https://www.cnbc.com/2018/09/19/world-bank-global-poverty-rate-drops-to-record-low.html https://www.aei.org/economics/aging/world-poverty-rate-plummets/ The idea that the US impoverishes countries by taking their resources and looting is a popular talking point on the fringe left but is easily debunked. People are living dramatically better worldwide over the last few decades.
    13 replies | 1320 view(s)
  • Krugminator2's Avatar
    03-26-2020, 07:24 PM
    Not that this matters or I should get much credit but Dow rallies more than 1,300 points, capping its biggest 3-day surge since 1931 https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/25/stock-market-futures-open-to-close-news.html
    121 replies | 5101 view(s)
  • Krugminator2's Avatar
    03-26-2020, 05:35 PM
    Both are successful. One is very successful in markets and the other is a successful marketer and salesman.
    9 replies | 382 view(s)
  • Krugminator2's Avatar
    03-26-2020, 04:05 PM
    At least you finally cited a non-idiot.
    9 replies | 382 view(s)
  • Krugminator2's Avatar
    03-26-2020, 01:11 PM
    He bought puts to hedge his long portfolio. His fund is up .4% for the year vs the market being down 20% or whatever. He is not up $2.7 billion. Having a hedged portfolio doesn't make for a good story though. Edit: The exact number has probably changed after today but he said the same thing I did which I don't understand how this isn't obvious to every reporter. Instead of publishing tabloid trash fake news. 1243303297441615873
    9 replies | 382 view(s)
  • Krugminator2's Avatar
    03-25-2020, 03:05 PM
    I would never listen to any commentator for financial advice. But Jim Cramer ran an extremely successful hedge fund. 24% after fees and 30% gross return. Jim Cramer was a legit trader. Peter Schiff is an underperforming gold salesman with dog shit mutual funds. These are facts. Not opinions. Peter Schiff is a bad money manager. Jim Cramer wildly successful.
    88 replies | 1237 view(s)
  • Krugminator2's Avatar
    03-25-2020, 07:03 AM
    He did get the mortgage stuff right and then was wrong the next 12 years. Most economists thought we would go zero in the next recession so that wasn't any bold prediction. That isn't anything. The list of his wrong pronouncements is endless. I am not debating this. It isn't a matter of opinion that his entire inflation premise is wrong. Those are the facts. Here is debating an actual economist, Scott Sumner who has been more right than anyone the last 12 years. This is from 2013 with Peter Schiff talking about the super secret inflation. That was seven years ago. Commodities just hit multi decade lows.
    88 replies | 1237 view(s)
  • Krugminator2's Avatar
    03-24-2020, 10:18 PM
    I do admit when I am wrong. I have also been right like 95% of my posts on markets. Many very astute posts. But I absolutely own when I am wrong. That is something Peter Schiff and Ron Paul do not do. If you listened and acted on their financial advice, suicide would probably have been the best option if you listened to their advice They were wrong about everything. Not just kind of wrong. Catasrophically wrong. The worst records I have ever seen. They are very confident. And very wrong. They babbled endlessly about the market plunging and inflation. There was no inflation and the stock market is still up 300% from the bottom. They never own it. Ron said bonds were a bubble in 2012. If you shorted bonds then, killing yourself would be the best bet at this point. Ron has been bearish on the United States since the 70s. He has a portfolio of junk gold miners that have lagged the market forever and gold while stocks as a whole are up a zillion percent over that time. Schiff isn't even right about this. The market is plunging on virus and corporate debt not because of anything the Fed did or government spending. And if the government does their job (which it looks like they just might) and things recover he will be back to babbling for another decade about the world ending and be wrong the whole time.
    88 replies | 1237 view(s)
  • Krugminator2's Avatar
    03-24-2020, 07:31 PM
    Larry's a big gold standard guy. You should love him. Thinks the Fed has no power to do anything for the economy. Tax cuts answer to everything. I, on the other hand, have thought he was a boob and posted about it going back to when Rand hired Steve Moore (part of the Kudlow, Laffer, Moore team) to write his tax plan.
    88 replies | 1237 view(s)
  • Krugminator2's Avatar
    03-24-2020, 04:33 PM
    Larry Kudlow obviously reading my Ron Paul Forums posts. 1242576138142187527
    88 replies | 1237 view(s)
  • Krugminator2's Avatar
    03-23-2020, 08:43 PM
    Zippy was a left wing troll who was contrarian for the sake of being contrarian. My view on this differs from Ron Paul's and everyone in the forum but I believe the evidence from 1929 and 2008 supports my view.
    88 replies | 1237 view(s)
  • Krugminator2's Avatar
    03-23-2020, 08:14 PM
    There is moral hazard but businesses are going to behave better no matter what after this. 2008-09 scared banks and they have been much less eager to lend. The question is what is the alternative? The damage from this could take years to unravel if massive action is taken. There aren't enough GoFundMe's to help everyone out. My view on the Fed matches Scott Sumner's, who is the most notable Friedmanite economist. https://www.themoneyillusion.com/good-news-the-feds-moving-toward-whatever-it-takes/ And Bullard at the Fed probably has the right idea about plugging the leak. https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-fed-bullard-idUSKBN2190FT These are just my opinions (which counts for nothing), but I do know that playing fire and having Great Depression II isn't something I want to get anywhere near. The Great Depression wasn't just some accident from tariffs or income inequality or spending too much or whatever nonsense reason. It came about from mass bankruptcy that spiraled out of control.
    88 replies | 1237 view(s)
  • Krugminator2's Avatar
    03-23-2020, 05:40 PM
    The Fed doing anything other than loans is separate.
    88 replies | 1237 view(s)
  • Krugminator2's Avatar
    03-23-2020, 03:32 PM
    $2 trillion UBI and assorted business expenses $4 trillion that Treasury could have at discretion to do loans QE isn't an expense or part of the bill.
    88 replies | 1237 view(s)
  • Krugminator2's Avatar
    03-23-2020, 01:41 PM
    -30% GDP this quarter which is the number from Goldman Sachs. Other sources 20-25% range. On a $20 trillion economy that would equate to plugging a leak in income of $1.5-$2 million which is what the bill is. That would be the UBI and the different corporate loans. The $4 trillion was Mnuchin's number that could be used as short term loans to help smaller businesses meet payroll and not default. The number is misleading though. Only the UBI will add to debt. TARP had an expensive looking price tag but the government made money on it.
    88 replies | 1237 view(s)
  • Krugminator2's Avatar
    03-22-2020, 03:48 PM
    That crisis has nothing directly to do with this crisis. The banks right now are in pretty good shape. This is a corporate debt crisis. That has nothing directly to do with the Fed.
    88 replies | 1237 view(s)
  • Krugminator2's Avatar
    03-22-2020, 03:39 PM
    You can't print your way into prosperity but you sure can print your way out of depression. See 2008-2009. No hyperinflation. Worked quite well.
    88 replies | 1237 view(s)
  • Krugminator2's Avatar
    03-22-2020, 03:35 PM
    Everything but macroeconomic stuff. I have never changed since 2014, when I joined the forum. Nothing I am saying is new. I have always been a Milton Friedman guy. No doubt in my mind what St. Milton would do right now. I am only pounding the table because it is maddening watching people like Rand (who I have always been the a big butt kisser and defender of) not realize the enormity of this situation.
    88 replies | 1237 view(s)
  • Krugminator2's Avatar
    03-22-2020, 03:33 PM
    Of course they could. The current total debt is $23 trillion and unfunded liabilities are much larger. This will only increase the debt by a trillion. Most the $6 trillion would be short term loans which the government will make a little money on just like TARP, which worked.
    88 replies | 1237 view(s)
  • Krugminator2's Avatar
    03-22-2020, 03:28 PM
    It hasn't been voted on yet. And Rand just said on Twitter he wouldn't vote it. Called it a monstrosity.
    88 replies | 1237 view(s)
  • Krugminator2's Avatar
    03-22-2020, 03:09 PM
    Who said it was free? It will come at the expense of future growth. But that is preferable to doing nothing and having no growth until 2030. No first world capitalist country has ever had hyperinflation in peacetime through money printing. Japan has run deficits bigger than this onetime deficit for decades.
    88 replies | 1237 view(s)
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