• Krugminator2's Avatar
    06-24-2019, 01:03 PM
    I don't have a for certain answer but: Everything won't be automated. If it were that would be a good thing. It would mean almost all material wants would be taken care of at little cost. Massive wealth would be created and it would free people up to do creative tasks which AI will not be able to do in anyone here's lifetime. I strongly suspect "the AI will do everything and make humans obsolete) worries are just like every worry like global warming, the debt, Y2K, killer bees, shark attacks, etc. That said I do think education needs to do a better job of preparing people for skills like coding and problem solving. As far as people on the low end of the IQ spectrum, they have always struggled. I don't see why unnecessary jobs should be saved. There might be some initial struggle, but I have come to the conclusion (could be wrong) that people won't lead meaningless lives doing drugs and collecting UBI. I think people will adapt because they always have and will need to.
    129 replies | 903 view(s)
  • Krugminator2's Avatar
    06-22-2019, 05:20 PM
    I could not think of a less worthy cause. This is the worst part of the original Ron Paul movement. There are occasionally people who could use help financially on this forum or people who ran for Congress like Brett. Give them money. "The Expanded and Improved Medicare for All Act,” would pay for health care by increasing taxes on the wealthiest 5 percent of Americans, create a progressive excise tax on payroll and self-employment, tax unearned income, and also tax stock and bond transactions (not just the gains from those transactions).' https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/what-does-rep-tulsi-gabbard-believe-where-the-candidate-stands-on-7-issues I mistakenly said I might not vote for Trump. But statements like this why I will ultimately vote for him. I hate all of these Communists so much. It is cool she likes Snowden. Swell. What about the civil liberties of people who pay taxes.
    92 replies | 2063 view(s)
  • Krugminator2's Avatar
    06-22-2019, 05:09 PM
    I regret writing what I wrote now that I read your initial comment. That said, it would take a high bar for me to see someone as negligent. There has to be a much different standard injuring someone on a motorcycle vs injuring them in a car. A person on a motorcycle is knowingly taking a massive risk. Giving the stat I posted, I would be in favor of their family getting 1/26th the compensation of someone in a car or truck. Taking bad risks should not be rewarded.
    75 replies | 718 view(s)
  • Krugminator2's Avatar
    06-22-2019, 04:42 PM
    I have a strong opinion on this topic. I almost hit a cyclist driving at the side of the road at night. Just missed the guy by a hair. I felt sadness- for myself. My life would have been ruined by a reckless person riding a bicycle at night. I don't like to see anyone die. But I am always disgusted when I see someone charged with manslaughter over stuff like this. Riding a motorcycle is a choice. People understand the risks. But if someone dies on a motorcycle and they weren't intentionally hit, that's on them. Bottom line is don't ban motorcycles, but don't charge people who accidentally hit and kill them. Whenever I see a motorcycle going over 40 mph, that person is making a bad life choice and shouldn't hold anyone else responsible. " the number of motorcycle-related deaths was 26 times the number of car-related deaths" https://auto.howstuffworks.com/are-motorcycles-more-dangerous-than-cars.htm
    75 replies | 718 view(s)
  • Krugminator2's Avatar
    06-22-2019, 08:24 AM
    I am somewhat restating that for my own benefit. I used to think the only way the money supply grew is if more gold was mined, but that isn't the case. And I suspect not everyone knows that.
    31 replies | 1272 view(s)
  • Krugminator2's Avatar
    06-21-2019, 01:00 PM
    Increasing the money supply is not a tax. If a dollar is originally equal to a unit of gold and the economy grows, then that dollar would buy more than a unit of gold so you have to increase the money supply to keep the dollar a constant value in gold. And that is what happens in practice. The inflation rate in golden era of the gold standard rom 1880 to 1914 was .1% (basically zero). At the same time the money supply grew dramatically because of productivity and population growth. "Compare the aforementioned average annual inflation rate of 0.1 percent between 1880 and 1914" https://www.econlib.org/library/Enc/GoldStandard.html
    31 replies | 1272 view(s)
  • Krugminator2's Avatar
    06-21-2019, 12:46 PM
    I just googled transaction tax and the only variant I see is financial transaction tax, in which case that is about the most pernicious tax there is.
    31 replies | 1272 view(s)
  • Krugminator2's Avatar
    06-18-2019, 08:37 PM
    I missed that post. This is why I always thought it was ridiculous when I would see Ron Paul people cite The Nation or Glenn Greenwald or Monodweiss or any other trash source in 2011 for any reason just because they didn't hate Ron. Any issue they are not horrible on is an accident that isn't rooted in a coherent philosophy. Their only belief is they hate the founding values that still bind America and want to see those values destroyed.
    242 replies | 7796 view(s)
  • Krugminator2's Avatar
    06-18-2019, 01:51 PM
    As funny as that reads, it is very true.
    51 replies | 534 view(s)
  • Krugminator2's Avatar
    06-17-2019, 08:05 PM
    I have no idea what you just said or what you are proposing. I am not sure what Wall Street or the CBOE has to do with anything. Are you proposing just a tax on financial trades, in which case that is brain-dead. Or is this a sales tax? And what do you mean monetize? I get the definition of monetize, but what are you saying is bad? Are you saying offering a service and earning a profit is bad? And will that make humanity more mature? And we do have a sovereign currency. It is called the dollar. And where in the past are the answers? Is it Jesus? Does Jesus have the answers to all the world's problems?
    31 replies | 1272 view(s)
  • Krugminator2's Avatar
    06-16-2019, 12:51 PM
    Am reading classic liberty texts on this rainy weekend. From Chapter 1 of the Economic Way of Thinking by Paul Heyne. "In modern industrial societies, people's economizing actions occur in the context of extreme specialization. Specialization, or what Adam Smith called the division of labor, is a necessary condition for the increases in production that have so expanded "the wealth of nations" in recent centuries." Chapter 6 Efficiency, Exchange, and Comparative Advantage is also relevant. Basically he explains that because you (or a nation) theoretically can do something doesn't mean they should. Even if you (or a nation) are more efficient than someone you pay doesn't mean you shouldn't pay them if it takes away from doing what you are truly good at. I suspect there is a strong correlation between people who dwell on manufacturing vs services and want tariffs and those who think doing tasks around the house is some essential skill everyone should learn.
    141 replies | 1424 view(s)
  • Krugminator2's Avatar
    06-15-2019, 05:40 PM
    Democrats are not all of sudden going to vote for a guy who wants to eliminate Social Security, gun laws, and who thinks a clump of 1 day old cells is a baby. He is popular with Dems like Ron Paul and John McCain were popular with Democrats, which is to say not at all popular when it matters. They are just momentary useful idiots. The LP primary is around May of 2020. Justin's House primary won't be until August three months later. Amash has put himself in a bad spot. Justin should threaten an Amash/Sanford Libertarian Party ticket if he doesn't get House leadership to pressure his opponent to drop out. That ticket is sufficiently conservative (unlike previous candidates) and has name recognition and would probably be enough to sink Trump's reelection chances.
    6 replies | 192 view(s)
  • Krugminator2's Avatar
    06-12-2019, 04:42 PM
    Global warming exists. Man contributes to it. The US contributes a small amount. I am too lazy to use Google but I read China pollutes 5 to 10 times as much. Anything the US does is a drop in the ocean. India and other third world countries are getting wealthier and will pollute more in the coming years. It is ridiculous for the US to have a lower standard of living and have no impact just to appease anti-capitalist zealots.
    7 replies | 278 view(s)
  • Krugminator2's Avatar
    06-11-2019, 07:00 PM
    Just to reiterate, women are mush brains who make the country poorer and less free by having the ability to vote. (excepting the .2% of women who voted for Ron Paul or are libertarians.)
    79 replies | 985 view(s)
  • Krugminator2's Avatar
    06-11-2019, 06:56 PM
    Hayek thought it was a good idea. Among other quotes: "More recently I have not been able to find a single person even in much maligned Chile who did not agree that personal freedom was much greater under Pinochet than it had been under Allende." https://en.wikiquote.org/wiki/Friedrich_Hayek_and_dictatorship It is always weird when I see libertarians use Chile as an example of foreign meddling. Chile worked. That was a good intervention. If all interventions went that smoothly then there would be justification for them. There was no blowback and the people are much better off. There are no radical Chileans committing terrorism against the US. And no US soldiers lost their lives. I support regime change in Venezuela. I don't support US troops in Venezuela. But I see no problem with Trump meeting with the opposition and offering encouragement. Venezuela has a ton of oil and could be prosperous. More trade would be good for everyone. I don't see a problem with committing money and intelligence to oust a Communist. That is my usual contrarian take. I understand not getting involved and the LP chair probably should promote it. But Venezuela isn't similar to Iraq.
    58 replies | 871 view(s)
  • Krugminator2's Avatar
    06-11-2019, 07:26 AM
    I am for employers voluntarily being able to not ask this question which is already the case. On the other hand, I am absolutely not in favor of making it illegal to ask that question. All drugs should be legal. But people who do drugs are losers. If you went to prison for dealing drugs or using drugs (even if you shouldn't go to prison in a free society), I would want to know that in hiring. And drugs are the minor question. If you serve for rape or child molestation, an employer has the right to know if they ask. The ice cream truck company shouldn't have to be in the dark if some pedo wants to get a job their. They have their own reputation at risk.
    12 replies | 769 view(s)
  • Krugminator2's Avatar
    06-08-2019, 08:29 PM
    Instead of using you as an example, do I think Ron Paul understands the basics of personal finance? No. His personal finances were public and they were a mess and have cost him millions of dollars. He had 100% of net worth in precious and miners, both of which have underperformed a broad basket of equities since the beginning of time. Super basic stuff like not buying actively managed mutual funds, investing in equities and sticking with them through good and bad times, maximizing employer matches, having an HSA and high deductible plan in the individual health market, having auto insurance with high deductibles etc are all things people do not do. They would be better served spending a couple of hours a week on that stuff than getting on a ladder cleaning leaves out of their gutter. But that is my personal preference. Other people might think DIY ripping apart their shower is a more important life skill.
    141 replies | 1424 view(s)
  • Krugminator2's Avatar
    06-08-2019, 06:59 PM
    That's one way to look. The other way to look at it is everyone is dependent. Nobody on the planet could reproduce a pencil on their own. I, Pencil answers that argument perfectly. Secondly, what you consider a critical task may differ from what I consider a critical task. To me an oil change is very unimportant. The cost savings in peanuts and probably is a net cost to DIYers. If someone has an interest in it. Cool. But for the average person it will add zero benefit to their life. In contrast, learning the basics of personal finance, I would consider a critical task. That is something where most people make needless errors on basic stuff where they don't need to pay someone that ends up costing them hugely over the course of a lifetime.
    141 replies | 1424 view(s)
  • Krugminator2's Avatar
    06-08-2019, 03:48 PM
    Perfect example. I said this multiple times when Rand ran for president. Rand saves himself no money cutting his hair. If just one person decided to not get laser eye surgery from him because they thought he looked unprofessional, that cost would be greater than paying for a lifetime of haircuts.
    141 replies | 1424 view(s)
  • Krugminator2's Avatar
    06-08-2019, 03:18 PM
    Let's say the unimaginable happens and have a lady over. If I were to clean my own place it would look terrible. There would be grease stains all over the counter that I couldn't get out. Smudges on the mirrors. Dirty base boards. Sure I could clean that stuff but it is tedious. Other people do it super quick and well. I do it super slow and poorly. I would rather not have not take that risk. Or lets take the oil change example. The risk reward on that is pretty skewed. The upside is I save $50. The downside is I wreck the engine in my car. Not exactly a good scenario. Not to mention, I don't know what to look for that could be faulty. Even if I Googled it, I still would know much less than people who look at dozens of the same make of car every day. I like having the peace of mind of the dealership telling me the whatever thing needs to be replaced or it is going to cause unnecessary wear and tear. Plus it doesn't necessarily even save money changing your own oil unless you know exactly what you are doing and you don't ever want to resell the car. The first thing I would look at in buying a car is the CarFax and want to see regular oil changes and the maintenance history. If those aren't available I wouldn't consider it. One thing I did do this year was my own taxes. I know more than 99.5% about taxes than the general population and more than most of the CPAs I have dealt with. I actually just called my old CPA last night because my questions were bothering me so much. I still likely screwed something up and will be going back for my own sanity. The bottom line is trying to do things yourself isn't a free lunch. There is the cost in time and the cost in doing it worse than a pro.
    141 replies | 1424 view(s)
  • Krugminator2's Avatar
    06-08-2019, 02:13 PM
    None of that is correct (for me at least). It just doesn't interest me. I value my time as well as getting the job done well and quickly over the cost. If someone wants to work on cars then boats then great. I would consider that a huge waste of money and rather save and invest it. The underlying assumption you and AF make is physical work is somehow necessary and superior to mental work. I would rather smoke a cigar or play with my labrador retriever than change my own oil. Not everyone has to have the same interests. I don't grow and or shoot all of my own food? Assuming you don't, why are you such a snob? Why use fancy grocery stores when you could just forage for berries for a couple of hours. A lot of this talk about how prior generations could do certain things was out necessity not out of some masculine instinct. When America was a third world country and people lived on less than a dollar a day they could butcher a hog, build shelter, plow a field, or knit a sock. They also lived on a dollar a day and died at 30. Not for me.
    141 replies | 1424 view(s)
  • Krugminator2's Avatar
    06-08-2019, 01:37 PM
    I'll take the counter view. We live in a division of labor society. I work hard at what I am good at so I don't have to do that stuff. I have a housekeeper, live in an HOA community, and have pay people when something goes wrong with the toilet. Could I landscape and clean and replace the toilet valve if I had to? Sure I could. But why? I am not against physical labor but I did well in school and struggled at what I do for years so I wouldn't have to. The single best advice I would give someone is do one thing and do one thing really well. And if that one thing goes away at some point in life, find another one thing and do that well. Specialization pays. Being able to do a lot of things is the road to poverty. Ask Thomas Jefferson. He died broke.
    141 replies | 1424 view(s)
  • Krugminator2's Avatar
    06-08-2019, 09:09 AM
    It is interesting how far Glenn Beck fell from grace monetarily for not supporting Trump. You can say what you will for Beck and whether you believe not supporting Trump was principle or not, but it cost him hugely for not supporting orange man.
    25 replies | 291 view(s)
  • Krugminator2's Avatar
    06-07-2019, 12:32 PM
    Nice to see Dotard's tariffs on Mexico aren't happening. https://www.cnbc.com/2019/06/07/trump-says-theres-a-good-chance-that-mexico-averts-tariffs-by-purchasing-us-farm-goods.html He gets to pretend like he is getting a small win over something that has nothing to do with immigration instead of losing 90-10 vote in the Senate that blocks them.
    49 replies | 912 view(s)
  • Krugminator2's Avatar
    06-07-2019, 06:28 AM
    Monster rally in the market off the bottom. Up 5% from just a few days ago. Second biggest 1 week move in 6 and half years.
    71 replies | 2049 view(s)
  • Krugminator2's Avatar
    06-04-2019, 10:59 AM
    Second biggest up day of the year. All out.
    71 replies | 2049 view(s)
  • Krugminator2's Avatar
    06-03-2019, 09:46 PM
    It is disgraceful that anyone here would support these taxes. This is a bridge too far. I hope Trump losses badly if these go into effect. This is Bernie Sanders/UAW stuff. Tariff Man apparently wants to be Herbert Hoover Great Depression Man.
    49 replies | 912 view(s)
  • Krugminator2's Avatar
    06-03-2019, 07:51 PM
    It isn't a matter of balls. It is a matter of statistics. Or if you want to be an Austrian about you can just use logic. You get paid to take risk. In order to make money you have to do what others are unwilling to do. Buying when others are selling is the best strategy over the long run. I might not be right but well over 100% of the gains in the market come in situations like this. That said the only thing that is worrisome is the VIX hasn't risen much so I am being less aggressive so far unless we get another down move. Taking out the canes was good advice in 1887. Good advice in 2019. http://www.dailyspeculations.com/Letter/cane.htm
    71 replies | 2049 view(s)
  • Krugminator2's Avatar
    06-03-2019, 07:23 PM
    Odds of a rally are about 99% (literally). I would like see one more push down. Might not get it but can hope. Treasuries are at an extreme as well. If treasuries open green tomorrow, very high probability short.
    71 replies | 2049 view(s)
  • Krugminator2's Avatar
    06-03-2019, 06:23 AM
    Big rally very likely no matter what happens with trade. More a matter of when things bottom. I would like to see one more down day. Two down days even better. Money market fund flows huge last week so money already out of stocks. Lot of put buying. Sentiment surveys very bearish. June tends to be a good month after a bad May. Likelihood is 4-6% rally from whatever the bottom is. Obviously no guarantees but these kind of times are where 100% of the opportunity in the market is.
    71 replies | 2049 view(s)
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