• Krugminator2's Avatar
    Yesterday, 12:05 PM
    https://www.wsj.com/articles/high-frequency-traders-fall-on-hard-times-1490092200 It turns out the hysterics were wrong again. The boogeymen HFTs who have brought costs down considerably from the old days of floor traders are experiencing the same challenges every hyper-competitive business has. It turns out technology has made market making a commoditized business and all the "excess" profits have been competed away, just like it happens in every competitive business. All of the cries that high frequency trading makes markets more unstable and a few well connected fat cats are making too much money and should be taxed more were all wrong. Flash Boys, Bernie Sanders, Zerohedge all wrong as they always are.
    0 replies | 106 view(s)
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    03-20-2017, 06:33 PM
    It isn't clear at all Ayn Rand would be for a policy of open borders. Leonard Peikoff was as close to Ayn Rand as anyone. He is the curator of her estate. He doesn't think we should let Muslims into the country and is even for limiting immigration from Mexico. I don't go that far but I suspect his living in California has a lot to do with his immigration stance. http://www.peikoff.com/2010/07/05/what-is-the-proper-government-attitude-toward-immigration/ I actually know of almost no major libertarian thinker who takes a radical open borders view. Rothbard, Walter Williams, Milton Friedman, Thomas Sowell, Gary Becker, etc all felt it legitimate to regulate immigration. Even Mises, who I took for granted would be open borders, wasn't even close to open borders. He thought if a country like Australia opened its borders up it would be overrun with evil Chinese and Malaysians. Hayek was only for open borders in the abstract. "Professor Friedrich A. Hayek—himself an immigrant several times in his life—praised the British Conservative leader Margaret Thatcher for her call for stringent immigration controls. 'I believe that within any period with which we can now be concerned, any attempt to realize it (open borders) would lead to a revival of strong nationalist sentiments. '" Here is what the author of one of Ron Paul's top 5 recommended books says about immigration. http://www.theamericanconservative.com/articles/hayeks-case-against-unlimited-immigration/
    31 replies | 447 view(s)
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    03-19-2017, 10:46 PM
    I actually have Peter Thiel's book. He didn't really say what you just attributed to him at least not in the sense that that most people think of being a monopolist. For some reason that is how he was interpreted. But he was saying you shouldn't get involved in a commoditized business. He never said you should do anything unfair or rig the game. He said you should look to build a business where you provide a niche that can't be easily replicated.
    21 replies | 440 view(s)
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    03-19-2017, 02:13 PM
    Draymond Green and Kyrie Irving are obviously dimwits. What bothers me more are the left wing rants from Steve Kerr. For example "automatic weapons" and "outdated Bill of Rights." "I kind of think that our forefathers would not have okíd automatic weapons to be sold to everybody if they existed back then. Letís have some checks. Itís easier to get a gun than it is to get a driverís license. Itís insane. And as somebody whoís had a family member shot and killed, it devastates me every time I read about this stuffó like what happened in Orlandoó and then itís even more devastating to see the government just cowing to the NRA and going to this totally outdated Bill Of Rights, right to bear arms. If you want to own a musket, fine, you know, but come on. " "who are so opposed to even holding a vote on not only the right to buy an automatic weapon" http://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/nba/warriors/2016/06/24/warriors-coach-steve-kerr-gives-impassioned-plea-gun-control/86360010/ I am not even a gun guy but I am pretty sure most automatic weapons have been banned since like the 1930's and kill about 0 people a year. Steve Kerr ranting about more taxes should be what concerns people not what mongoloid Draymond Green thinks about the Earth.
    17 replies | 256 view(s)
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    03-18-2017, 10:31 PM
    Isn't that a good thing. If you don't pay your debts on time, shouldn't you be charged a penalty?
    52 replies | 1193 view(s)
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    03-17-2017, 04:07 PM
    http://www.frontpagemag.com/point/260106/91-middle-eastern-refugees-are-food-stamps-daniel-greenfield Actual government stat. 91.4% of Muslim refugees receive food stamps. The Tsarnaev brothers got over 100k in government largesse. I don't get this radically open borders position Cato and Reason take. When did libertarians become welfare statists? And I don't get this whole equating every life on the globe with the lives of someone already in the US.
    64 replies | 909 view(s)
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    03-13-2017, 05:39 PM
    That is the current law. People have changed their behavior because of that law. Let's say you worked for a company just for the group health insurance. Then you quit to be self-employed because insurance was now accessible to you. It would be very unreasonable to instantly take that away after making a major life change because of that government policy. Grandfathering someone in is very reasonable. You need predictable rules with some continuity for a free society to work.
    70 replies | 2289 view(s)
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    03-11-2017, 04:47 PM
    840645773985492992 https://www.nytimes.com/2017/03/11/us/politics/preet-bharara-us-attorney.html Sessions has done at least one good thing. As someone who had well into five figures stolen on Absolute Poker by this guy, it is nice to see him get the ax. Just a horrible human being who has made a living prosecuting people for non-crimes like insider trading and playing poker. Authoritarian (redundant) liberals seem really upset about this. I am not sure what the reasoning was, but he is one of the least libertarian people in government.
    7 replies | 331 view(s)
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    03-11-2017, 04:08 PM
    My answers.
    44 replies | 1180 view(s)
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    03-11-2017, 12:37 PM
    The majority of time throughout history increased debt leads to crowding out. Even when interest rates are ultra-low there is going to be long term crowding out in practice. Nothing is so permanent as a temporary government program. Nothing that government does besides very basic functions is useful. Once you go down the road of spending money on something it will never end and at some point investors will be lending money to government at the expense of a productive alternative. Even though interest rates haven't gone up in Japan, I have a hard time believing that their debt levels aren't a major contributor to their perpetually slow growth.
    44 replies | 1180 view(s)
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    03-11-2017, 10:22 AM
    Governments issuing debt is problematic because it diverts savings away from private sector investment, not because we are going to have hyperinflation, a currency crisis or "it is going to end badly" as one of the articles says. Government spending just means a slow down in growth. Instead of buying productive assets people direct resources to government boondoggles. If you paid for government spending with higher taxes instead of issuing debt, you would still be diverting assets away from private sector use AND you would be creating a disincentive to work. The ideal would less government spending in the first place. But these expenditures were incurred. Repudiating the debt would just be a large tax on productive savers. Not to mention this would be a massive rule change in the middle of the game. A free society needs predictable policy, even if it less than ideal policy. Government spending is usually bad and repudiating debt would be one way to make government spending more difficult in the future because people will be less inclined to finance government. But people do hold debt. People have bought debt KNOWING that there is no risk of default. Repudiating the debt would be like how African countries randomly just bulldoze someone's business. It is ultimately an arbitrary violation of property rights.
    44 replies | 1180 view(s)
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    03-10-2017, 11:45 AM
    Doomsdayers do think March 15th is a significant event because of a few different elections like the Netherlands. It doesn't matter what will happen in the elections. Buying silver or oil randomly right now and holding for the first up close vs the previous day will show a solid long run profit. If you bought half now and bought either a gap down Monday or Tuesday, the odds of the trade working in either commodity are around 85%.
    54 replies | 2455 view(s)
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    03-09-2017, 07:01 PM
    Noted Communist Ludwig von Mises talked about immigration in Liberalism. He completely rejected the protectionist economic arguments against immigration but was very sympathetic to the problems of assimilation. And he believed free immigration was problematic in a country that didn't have laissez faire capitalism. https://mises.org/library/liberalism-classical-tradition/html/p/45
    92 replies | 2344 view(s)
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    03-08-2017, 10:55 PM
    Rand and especially Ron are hopeless on anything to do with macroeconomics. They are going to be predicting a currency crisis until the end of time. Doom and gloom predictions are good for donations. Not so good as a representation of reality.
    92 replies | 2344 view(s)
  • Krugminator2's Avatar
    03-07-2017, 06:45 PM
    I wasn't really disagreeing as much as I was bringing up the counterpoint to the ability to time markets. I think people should be in index ETFs. Though I think people don't take enough risk (including myself) and should use leverage. The advice about staying out of the market is really bad. If anything, a market at all time highs is bullish knowing no other variable.
    13 replies | 445 view(s)
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    03-07-2017, 05:53 PM
    That isn't completely true. Blair Hull (of losing to Barack Obama for Senate fame as well as being a legit Market Wizard) takes a pretty academic approach to things and put a stock market timing model into that public domain that seems robust. https://www.google.com/webhp?sourceid=chrome-instant&rlz=1C1CHBF_enUS720US720&ion=1&espv=2&ie=UTF-8#q=blair+hull+market+timing+model&* There are a lot of short term market timing strategies that will give you roughly the same return as the market while staying in cash most of the time. If you have money outside of a retirement plan using 1.5x leverage would give you a better return with lower volatility than the market. There are a lot of relative strength and trend following strategies that won't work in an employer retirement plan but backtest better than the market.
    13 replies | 445 view(s)
  • Krugminator2's Avatar
    03-07-2017, 05:25 PM
    This is actual policy, not a nominee or endorsement. It isn't even close to acceptable with a Republican House, Senate and President. It does nothing to address costs and it creates a new entitlement. It will require Democrats crossing over for it to pass.
    55 replies | 1085 view(s)
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    03-04-2017, 08:04 PM
    I don't know where Trump will fit in. But any list that doesn't have Reagan number 1 by a wide margin and LBJ last is a pretty bad list. If Gorsuch gets confirmed, that would automatically put Trump ahead of Carter and Ford. I suspect gridlock will keep Trump from implementing his really terrible ideas like tariffs and I suspect Paul Ryan will find a way to scuttle an infrastructure bill on the scale that Trump is proposing. If Trump gets tax reform passed, he might move into Bill Clinton territory, which wouldn't be the worst thing. If Breyer or Ginsburg retires and Trump gets a nomination, that would be huge. Likewise if Thomas retires and Trump puts a like minded person the court or if Trump is able to replace Anthony Kennedy with someone better, he could potentially move into the number 2 spot behind Ronaldus Magnus.
    35 replies | 1294 view(s)
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    03-03-2017, 11:42 PM
    Schiller is exactly right. Markets are driven to a great extent by psychology not rational actors. The bubbles in silver and gold in 2011 are Exhibit A. Bubbles have existed forever and would exist without central banks. It is how people are wired. This has been tested in labs. "Economic history is a never-ending series of episodes based on falsehoods and lies, not truths. It represents the path to big money. The object is to recognize the trend whose premise is false, ride that trend, and step off before it is discredited." George Soros.
    5 replies | 417 view(s)
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    03-03-2017, 09:57 PM
    55% of households pay federal income tax. https://www.forbes.com/sites/beltway/2015/10/06/new-estimates-of-how-many-households-pay-no-federal-income-tax/#5206151f61cb I agree. The flat tax plans put out are slightly less progressive plans. There should not be an exemption. And there should not be all the deductions that distort incentives i.e. mortgage interest.
    240 replies | 3303 view(s)
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    03-02-2017, 05:40 PM
    Good. That coverage is actually worse than Medicare. Rand, Lee, Graham and Demint introduced a bill to give every senior the the Congressional Health Care plan in 2012 as a way to cut costs. https://www.lee.senate.gov/public/index.cfm/2012/3/senators-introduce-medicare-reform-plan-the-congressional-health-care-for-seniors-act Now Congress gets their insurance through the Obamacare exchanges already unless they have a spouse with insurance through a group plan.
    13 replies | 347 view(s)
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    02-28-2017, 09:26 PM
    Most of these are not legitimate news outlets. MSNBC is basically Communist propaganda. No MSNBC reporter should be allowed anywhere near the White House. Here are some old surveys of how the press voted in different elections. 94% voted for LBJ over Goldwater. Even George HW Bush only got 7% of the vote from the press against Bill Clinton. https://archive.mrc.org/biasbasics/biasbasics3.asp These people should not be joked around with. They are the enemy of freedom. It takes an act of will in this country to be a libertarian or a conservative. Between government schools, liberal universities, the press and entertainers, people are constantly bombarded with mush.
    67 replies | 1606 view(s)
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    02-28-2017, 07:53 PM
    Are a country's bonds and the country's currency directly correlated and the same bet? (Hint: No. Not usually) Leveraged etfs are trading vehicles meaning hold time should be less than 5 days. Buying a triple leveraged inverse etf and holding is a good way for a guaranteed loss because of the way they rebalance. Here is a chart of the triple leveraged gold miner etf http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/advchart/frames/frames.asp?show=&insttype=Fund&symb=nugt&x=52&y=8&time=13&startdate=1%2F4%2F1999&enddate=2%2F28%2F2017&freq=2&compidx=aaaaa%3A0&comptemptext=&comp=none&ma=0&maval=9&uf=0&lf=1&lf2=0&lf3=0&type=4&style=320&size=3&timeFrameToggle=false&compareToToggle=false&indicatorsToggle=false&chartStyleToggle=false&state=9 Here is a chart of the triple leveraged inverse gold miner etf. Notice they both end up at zero. http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/advchart/frames/frames.asp?show=&insttype=&symb=dust&x=0&y=0&time=13&startdate=1%2F4%2F1999&enddate=2%2F28%2F2017&freq=2&compidx=aaaaa%3A0&comptemptext=&comp=none&ma=0&maval=9&uf=0&lf=1&lf2=0&lf3=0&type=4&style=320&size=3&timeFrameToggle=false&compareToToggle=false&indicatorsToggle=false&chartStyleToggle=false&state=9 Shorting leveraged ETFs on large spikes might be worth considering. A better strategy might be to not trade and do something you will be more productive at.
    6 replies | 508 view(s)
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    02-27-2017, 11:15 AM
    http://www.nytimes.com/2010/08/01/opinion/01stockman.html http://www.businessinsider.com/david-stockman-youd-be-a-fool-to-hold-anything-but-cash-now-2012-3 https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2013-03-31/stockman-warns-of-crash-of-fed-fueled-bubble-economy http://davidstockmanscontracorner.com/the-implosion-is-near-signs-of-the-bubbles-last-days/ http://www.cnbc.com/2015/05/21/stockman-stocks-and-bonds-will-crash-soon.html http://www.cnbc.com/2015/08/07/stocks-are-a-disaster-waiting-to-happen-stockman.html http://www.newsmax.com/Finance/StreetTalk/david-stockman-stock-market-hillary-clinton-donald-trump/2016/11/06/id/757307/ http://www.cnbc.com/2016/11/22/david-stockman-doubles-down-on-his-sell-everything-call.html Stockman-Wrong about everything since 1982. http://econlog.econlib.org/archives/2013/03/david_stockman.html
    23 replies | 753 view(s)
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    02-26-2017, 12:36 PM
    Insurance is a crucial and necessary part of civilization. We would be much poorer country without insurance. The cost of the food you eat is lower because of insurance. Farmers are able to produce more because they can hedge their risk with futures contracts. Think about shelter. If you weren't able to insure a house or building, banks wouldn't be able to lend money to most people. Essentially you wouldn't have civilization. Insurance is a service like getting a hair cut is a service. In this case the service is transferring risk. If you get cancer or get in auto accident and the cost of treatment is $2 million, paying a small premium to the insurance company will be worth it to most for the privilege of continuing to live.
    21 replies | 668 view(s)
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    02-25-2017, 06:08 PM
    There is no reason for a Republican President to ever attend this. Why sit a room with people who are 90% Democrat and have some comedian unfunny ideologue like Stephen Colbert ridicule you?
    67 replies | 1606 view(s)
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    02-25-2017, 11:10 AM
    Yes. And Medisave is their HSA. https://www.aei.org/publication/the-singapore-model/ "Medishield, the second part of the program, is a national insurance plan that covers the higher cost of especially serious illness or accident, which in Singapore’s system is described as “catastrophic.” Singaporeans can choose Medishield or several private alternatives, some offered by firms listed on the Singaporean stock exchange. Premiums for the insurance plans, including Medishield, can be paid using Medisave accounts." Freedomworks also thinks Singapore is worth looking at. http://www.freedomworks.org/content/fixing-us-health-care-system-look-singapore
    14 replies | 715 view(s)
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    02-24-2017, 11:02 PM
    All of that is true. The US system is geared more toward innovation. Most of the drugs and medical devices have come from the United States. If we had price controls like Canada the whole world would have less innovation. The solutions to get costs down are clear. Eliminate the FDA and you will have lower costs with no loss of innovation. Numerous Nobel economists have studied this and come to the conclusion that the FDA does more harm than good. Secondly, eliminate tax credits for employers which will cause people to buy high deductible plans which will put downward pressure on prices. A simple (authoritarian) fix is to force people to buy insurance and save into an HSA like in Singapore and pay for small things out of pocket. You will have substantially lower costs, better quality, you can still cover high risk cases with subsidies, and it will be far more free market than the current system. It is unconstitutional but it works. Singapore spends 80% less per person than the United States.
    14 replies | 715 view(s)
  • Krugminator2's Avatar
    02-23-2017, 09:29 PM
    Only in bizarro world would falling home prices be a bad thing. A house is a depreciating asset. The real rate of return of real estate is almost exactly zero percent over the last 100 years. The only reason that home prices don't fall is because land appreciates over time and the net effect is to mimic the inflation rate. I don't understand why the price of land has to continuously rise. Every other asset class falls in price periodically but real estate is exempt? The first example is a engineer moving into a $900,000 house. For someone to live in a 900k house they should be making a minimum of 500k at a steady job. Home prices in that area probably should fall. A 24 yr old with 2 kids working as a credit counselor should not have home ownership as an immediate goal. That should be the last thing she is saving for.
    18 replies | 595 view(s)
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    02-22-2017, 06:17 PM
    I didn't post the entire interview. The answer to the previous question was about spending and concluded with Greenspan saying this: "We would never have reached this position of extreme indebtedness were we on the gold standard, because the gold standard is a way of ensuring that fiscal policy never gets out of line."
    20 replies | 630 view(s)
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