Tab Content
  • r3volution 3.0's Avatar
    02-18-2020, 08:52 PM
    @Swordsmyth, Are you still suckling on the teet of the middle-aged game show host? What do you think is going to happen, in terms of the next GDP report, with China basically collapsed? ...referring to the virus.
    138 replies | 4608 view(s)
  • r3volution 3.0's Avatar
    02-18-2020, 08:42 PM
    Socrates: What is Justice Barrachios? Barrachios: Doing good to friends and harm to enemies. Socrates: Really dude, WTF? ...in all cases, Socrates gets executed; the world ain't what it used to be.
    39 replies | 1185 view(s)
  • r3volution 3.0's Avatar
    02-18-2020, 08:26 PM
    God wants America to exploit its financial position in financing those deficits and the largest welfare state in the world?
    138 replies | 4608 view(s)
  • r3volution 3.0's Avatar
    02-18-2020, 07:37 PM
    Socrates: What is Justice Trumpios? Trumpios: Doing good to friends and harm to enemies. Socrates: Really dude, WTF?
    39 replies | 1185 view(s)
  • r3volution 3.0's Avatar
    02-18-2020, 07:24 PM
    I'm doing my part by producing as much plastic as possible.
    2 replies | 221 view(s)
  • r3volution 3.0's Avatar
    02-18-2020, 07:18 PM
    Trump supporters are run-of-the-mill GOPers, maybe weighted toward those who especially dislike Obama (Communist Muslim, Hannity, Obama Camps, etc, etc). I've not seen any real change in voting behavior for as long as I've been watching this circus act. Make sure you vote terribly hard, just in case the one partisan hack beats the other.
    138 replies | 4608 view(s)
  • r3volution 3.0's Avatar
    02-06-2020, 08:27 PM
    We should probably just vote harder.
    92 replies | 2814 view(s)
  • r3volution 3.0's Avatar
    02-06-2020, 08:06 PM
    The Republican Party is a personality cult built around a barely literate reality TV character without an ideology or other higher-level thoughts but with generally leftist instincts; his election was an indictment of Western culture, ironically. The Democrat Party, when it was last in power, was a personality cult built around a modestly literate, albeit very badly educated, pseudo-intellectual doofus. When the latter was in power, the GOP continuously published propaganda about an impending coup, seeing Communist-Muslims (sic) around every corner. Since the former has been in power, the Democrat Party has done the same sort of thing, seeing Russian/NAZIs/etc around every corner. The loyal rank-and-file of both parties are highly irrational people, entirely divorced from reality.
    92 replies | 2814 view(s)
  • r3volution 3.0's Avatar
    02-06-2020, 07:32 PM
    TL;DR Leftist demagogue at podium says "bleep bloop blop," whereupon leftist demagogue #2, feigning anger, tears some pieces of paper. Partisans of said leftist demagogues proceed to charge one another (correctly) with unprincipled, hypocritical swinery.
    187 replies | 4073 view(s)
  • r3volution 3.0's Avatar
    01-29-2020, 02:23 AM
    Sanitation isn't the main issue with a flu type disease; it's population density. Some places in Africa (sadly, all the nicer places, with international airports) would have serious problems, but most of the continent would be relatively unaffected IMO. It relates to what Brian and I were talking about. Places like India or Africa have serious sanitation problems, which makes them vulnerable to (or productive of) diseases that live in the water supply, like typhus or cholera, for instance. But 1st world sanitation doesn't do much to prevent some guy from sneezing on a doorknob. I wonder if the KSA, the UAE, Qatar, etc learned any serious lessons from MERS; that's what this is like.
    409 replies | 10772 view(s)
  • r3volution 3.0's Avatar
    01-29-2020, 02:05 AM
    You know, no one's been talking about how these people got to Europe. There are direct flights from China to the W. Coast, but not to Europe (AFAIK). This person leaving Shanghai probably went to Munich via Dubai, or maybe Delhi, Moscow... Probably Dubai, from which we've heard exactly nothing
    409 replies | 10772 view(s)
  • r3volution 3.0's Avatar
    01-29-2020, 01:51 AM
    You beat me to it. I was just now looking around and came across the German story. There it is. Wuhan - Shanghai - Bavaria.
    409 replies | 10772 view(s)
  • r3volution 3.0's Avatar
    01-29-2020, 01:40 AM
    The only confirmed cases of outside-Wuhan transmission that I'm aware of are in Beijing (2 or 3 cases several days ago, probably a lot more now). But it would be very odd, lucky, if we didn't see that happen somewhere outside China, given how many individual cases there are outside China. For instance, I was talking to our sole Dutch member, who says the Dutch media say there are no confirmed cases in the Netherlands, but that is only a few hours from Paris, where there is a confirmed case, and only a few more hours from the other confirmed cases in Europe. Given the dense rail network in Europe, it seems very unlikely to me that some fellow flying into Charles de Gaul, let's say, wouldn't spread it to others in the train station, or the airport itself, even if he were only going home to some place in Paris, and especially if he were going to Amsterdam, Lyon, Frankfurt - many possibilities. I think we're going to see secondary transmission outside China soon: hope I'm wrong, but it doesn't make sense to not see it.
    409 replies | 10772 view(s)
  • r3volution 3.0's Avatar
    01-29-2020, 01:18 AM
    The math assumes that Chinese official figures (c. 6000 infected at last count) are correct. Those numbers are certainly wrong, low, just by the nature of what they're trying to do, even if they're totally honest (which I agree they are very likely not - albeit, I would say, for good reason). There's been no noticeable decline (AFAIK) in the rate of spread since China implemented their massive (historically unprecedented) quarantines. The only good news is that there's been no secondary transmission outside China (as far as we know). That's the only question in my mind. If we get a case in New York or Seattle or wherever with no connection to China, then I'd be pretty confident in a straight application of the R0 math globally, which is pretty horrifying.
    409 replies | 10772 view(s)
  • r3volution 3.0's Avatar
    01-29-2020, 01:04 AM
    So anyway, impending collapse of Western Civilization notwithstanding, what do you my friend really think about the Wuhan virus? Did you see my math with R0s of 2 or 3 and a mortality rate of 3%? Am I crazy? Or is that indeed looking like a likely scenario?
    409 replies | 10772 view(s)
  • r3volution 3.0's Avatar
    01-29-2020, 01:00 AM
    Joe's a really entertaining comedian and by all accounts a really nice and well-intended guy. However, he, like most people in the entertainment business, doesn't really know anything about politics. So... ...who cares who he's voting for?
    115 replies | 3676 view(s)
  • r3volution 3.0's Avatar
    01-29-2020, 12:57 AM
    Ron Paul... ...sounds vaguely familiar
    11 replies | 931 view(s)
  • r3volution 3.0's Avatar
    01-29-2020, 12:54 AM
    ...whatever let's you sleep. (I sleep like a baby)
    409 replies | 10772 view(s)
  • r3volution 3.0's Avatar
    01-29-2020, 12:40 AM
    They're behind in consuming their inheritance with socialistic economic policies and insane warmongering, you mean? The lunatic world order in which the US gets to print unlimited amounts of dollars to fund itself is coming to an end. We're going to be looking like the backward ones in the not very distant future. ...nothing to do with them, mind you, rather a matter of what we did to ourselves.
    409 replies | 10772 view(s)
  • r3volution 3.0's Avatar
    01-29-2020, 12:34 AM
    Well, assuming that's true, that's a problem obviously, but at least in China they're in a position to fix it more easily; i.e. they actually can wash their hands, with clean running water, and afford soap, if they want to (and something tells me that the average Wuhaner right now is washing the shit out of his hands, no pun intended). I guess we'll see.
    409 replies | 10772 view(s)
  • r3volution 3.0's Avatar
    01-29-2020, 12:27 AM
    It's not a matter of "example," it's a matter of the size of the capital stock. Look at a graph of any exponential function; the West is on the far right (and dropping, but that's another story), while the East is just at the point of exploding with fantastic late 19th century European style growth. They'll be fine. Our moribund socialist empires will be dead around the time India installs flush toilets in every house in Bombay. ...but I wouldn't drink the water, in the meantime.
    409 replies | 10772 view(s)
  • r3volution 3.0's Avatar
    01-29-2020, 12:12 AM
    They're just poor, no different than our own ancestors; they'll develop further and be fine at some point. In every city in Europe, until fairly recently, sewage was thrown raw into the street or, at best, into an open sewer. See: Plague
    409 replies | 10772 view(s)
  • r3volution 3.0's Avatar
    01-28-2020, 11:57 PM
    I totally agree, but the latter can also cause very serious problems. And I don't mean Delhi Belly; that's just a mild example. It wouldn't be surprising to have a dangerous disease (such as an antibiotic resistant form of something really bad, like typhus) emerge in India. High population density (like China) coupled with very poor sanitation encourages that kind of thing. China's problem with wild animals is also very serious, but different.
    409 replies | 10772 view(s)
  • r3volution 3.0's Avatar
    01-28-2020, 11:35 PM
    That may be optimistic; Delhi Belly is a thing for a reason. China is in just about every way more developed and sanitary than India. Does eating or not eating weird shit ultimately matter more than general hygiene? Maybe, it certainty appears to have mattered more a few months ago when this virus was spawned in China. When it comes to antibiotic resistant TB or similar diseases? We shall see.
    409 replies | 10772 view(s)
  • r3volution 3.0's Avatar
    01-28-2020, 11:14 PM
    The Indians don't eat wild animals in the same way as the Chinese, but the general level of sanitation is far worse. Perhaps eating bats is more likely to generate new diseases than having sewage in the water supply, but I'd recommend against both!
    409 replies | 10772 view(s)
  • r3volution 3.0's Avatar
    01-28-2020, 10:34 PM
    There's nothing odd or suspicious in a research institute researching what's actually now happening; that's exactly why they exist! This sort of thing isn't a surprise to scientists who research this kind of thing; it was expected, in some form. Don't get me wrong; it's entirely possible that this started because of a release from that lab, but there's no evidence of that, and it's not necessary to explain what's happened. Very high population density coupled with questionable gastronomic choices will do the trick. Nature is quite capable of screwing us all on its own, and China is a, if not the, natural place, given the size of the population. Think about it this way. China has about 5x the population of the US. Therefore, all else being equal, it's about 5x more likely to generate new diseases. I'm actually surprised that India hasn't generated something really nasty yet, given the similar population and much worse sanitation (though maybe it did and we just didn't hear about it, because India doesn't have airports and highspeed rail everywhere).
    409 replies | 10772 view(s)
  • r3volution 3.0's Avatar
    01-28-2020, 10:13 PM
    At an R0 of 2, the entire world would be infected in 20 iterations of the transmission. At an R0 of 3, it would be 13. The average incubation period is something like a week, so let's use that as the average transmission period. That means approximately global coverage in 91 -140 days. If that happened, and 3% of infected died, that would be around 210 million dead.
    24 replies | 763 view(s)
  • r3volution 3.0's Avatar
    01-28-2020, 09:41 PM
    The routine seasonal flu in the US has a mortality rate of about 0.1% (the figures you give are very similar, slightly less). This new virus, by conservative estimates, has a mortality rate of 3%, 30x higher.
    24 replies | 763 view(s)
No More Results

Statistics


Total Posts
Total Posts
17,245
Posts Per Day
7.90
Visitor Messages
Total Messages
3
Most Recent Message
04-18-2018 10:10 PM
General Information
Last Activity
02-19-2020 06:28 AM
Join Date
03-06-2014
Referrals
0
Page 1 of 2 12 LastLast

12-09-2019


12-06-2019


11-20-2019


10-12-2019


08-24-2019


08-13-2019


07-27-2019


07-22-2019

  • 11:42 PM - Hidden

07-03-2019


06-14-2019


02-02-2019

  • 04:02 AM - Hidden

05-21-2018


04-18-2018


04-08-2018


03-17-2018


01-22-2018


01-08-2018


12-30-2017



Page 1 of 2 12 LastLast
No results to display...
Page 1 of 393 1231151101 ... LastLast

02-18-2020


02-06-2020


02-01-2020


01-29-2020


01-28-2020



Page 1 of 393 1231151101 ... LastLast