Madison320
Member

I made a guess last year and it looks like it has come true. I think the Fed is done committing to any easing or tightening cycles. They are trapped. If they commit to easing, price inflation will skyrocket. If they commit to tightening the economy collapses. Everything they do now is going to be extremely short term. Currently they're creating inflation on the one hand with QE while fighting inflation on the other hand with rate hikes. I think at every Fed meeting they'll be saying they're "data dependent" anytime someone asks a question about what they're going to do. My guess is you could see rates going up and down over the next year. If we get a couple hot CPI readings they might hike a quarter point. If we get some bad economic readings they'll might cut a quarter. But the real story is going to be the printing (QE). They won't commit to a printing campaign but they're going to print anytime a bank or a too big to fail business needs money. I don't think we're going to see and more bank failures because the Fed is just going to bail them out. The mainstream media is going to be talking about how the worst of the bank problems seem to be over, but it's only because they've traded bank failures for inflation. The next phase of this crisis is going to be even higher price inflation than we had last year. So watch the Fed's balance sheet, that's where the real action is. https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/bst_recenttrends.htm