02-22-2021, 01:36 PM
Another theory is that much of the money is held by foreigners, which is why we have such big trade deficits. We print money and exchange it for real products.
So if we have hyper-inflation my guess is we'll have one big, gargantuan trade surplus as all that money held by foreigners is used by them to try to buy anything from us that's not nailed down.
I always go back to simple examples when trying to understand economics. Suppose you have an isolated island where shells are used as currency. Now suppose there's a hurricane and a whole bunch of those shells wash ashore, doubling the number of shells used as currency, so they pass them out to everyone. Is everyone now twice as well off? No, prices are going to double. I think the ultimate driver of long term inflation is the monetary base which is basically the amount of shells. The base has gone from a little under a trillion to over 7 trillion in the last 12 years, so lets say 7 times. That means that all things being equal prices should rise by 7 times. Now I know someone is going to tell me that "all things are not equal" so before you say that, tell me what variable would REDUCE inflation permanently by 7 times, in the long run. Productivity? Ha! Ha! Demand? I would think demand for dollars can only go down since we're already the world's reserve currency. Pretty much everyone already accepts dollars and the fact that we're printing them like maniacs is only going to make countries abandon the dollar.
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