09-30-2024, 08:37 AM
I was going to post about videos I watched and the news, but I've been thinking more about all this, so I wrote up something a little less about RIGHT NOW and more about what I think will actually happen in coming months and years.
Takeaway:
1) The stages of this war for a larger and, according to their wishes, more secure Israel, were all pre-planned by the Israelis. They intentionally set off Al-Aqsa Flood, the Hamas incursion on October 7th, and the over-kill of razing Gaza and pushing the Palestinians out, and moving on the West Bank with armed settlers and police action.
2) They killed, with US help, Solemani, Raisi, Haniyeh, and now, Nasrallah and many others. They want to kill Ayatollah Khameini. They want to kill Bashar al-Assad, and his brother is now missing after yesterday's strikes.
3) Jared Kushner's X post reveals the plan. This is also why Russia is helping Iran beef up its air defense. Jared said Israel's (and the US) air power will be less constrained against Iran's nuclear program after Hezbollah is eliminated. Hezbollah has to be destroyed first (really, second, after Hamas and Islamic Jihad), because if Israel attacked Iran, Israel would come under massive assault by Hezbollah, and that trade-off and its potential consequences would stress the small country too greatly, due to the proximity of Hezbollah.
4) Israel, with US, wants to force regime change in Iran, and destroy its nuclear program. It will feel more confident to do this AFTER both Hamas and Hezbollah are depleted, so that the Palestinians and Hezbollah do not pose immediate risks to the Israeli population when the campaign against Iran is undertaken. It feels that it can contain any resistance from Syria, even if Damascus and al-Assad himself are protected by Russia, that the Syrian government will not go to war against Israel offensively without a Russian go-ahead, and they can stop that from happening.
5) Iran knows all this, which is why it has held back from using its proprietary state power to attack Israel directly. It is preparing to defend itself from the Israeli/American assault which it correctly deems as highly likely, if not soon, years down the road. Therefore, Iran does not want to be drawn into the big war until it has enough AD to successfully repel incoming air armadas and missiles. How far it has gotten in this quest is a state secret between them and Russia. Previously, Hezbollah's threat to Israel and the Iranian ability to decimate American bases in the Middle East and lock down the Persian Gulf, and punish enemy Arab fiefdoms by blowing up their offices and oil fields, leading to potential overthrows in places like Bahrain, Kuwait, UAE, Oman, etc. and the resulting economic crash that would occur, these were all holding back the U.S., which restrained Netanyahu from attacking Iran.
6) Restraining Israel will become far more difficult if both threats from Palestinians and Hezbollah are removed. The Israeli lobby may succeed, along with potential persuasions, in convincing the U.S. to give the green light, after it has had enough time to prepare, which is already underway.
7) They are eyeing Trump as the U.S. president to do this. Although it has so much risk, Trump's threats to nuke Iran, he hopes, would be enough to make Iran "accept" attacks from Israel/US, and then the intel agencies can work on toppling the Islamic Republic's government, but the Ayatollah will restrict his response internally and not dare to fire on Israel. Upgrades to David's Sling (cash already on the way), internal procedures (bomb shelters, etc.) and the absence of Hezbollah and Hamas and West Bank as threats will keep the Israeli population secure enough to withstand Iran's assault should it come.
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