Tab Content
  • HitoKichi's Avatar
    Today, 02:34 PM
    4238 replies | 198417 view(s)
  • HitoKichi's Avatar
    Today, 11:51 AM Mark Humphrys (amongst others) asks whether we can estimate the number of descendants of King Edward III. A slightly different but related question is the probability that a present-day English person descends from Edward III (1312-1377). This is my attempt to calculate this probability. First we can consider the number of ancestors that we have. Wachter (1978), in considering the number of ancestors at the time of the Norman conquest for a child born in England in 1947, suggested that in 1587 (13 generations at 30 years) the child would have 7938 ancestors, a figure that allows for some cousin-cousin marriages, based on the observation that Wachter himself had 63 rather than 64 ancestors six generations back. Smith (2001) has examined 626 birth-briefs at the Society of Genealogists, and reviewed other literature on cousin-cousin marriages, showing that although the rate is difficult to estimate, the estimates which can be considered reliable range from 0.28% to 0.86% of marriages. Over many generations, this would mean that on average the number of ancestors increased not twofold per generation, but between 1.9828 and 1.9944 per generation, leading to slightly lower estimates than Wachter's, of 7322 to 7899 ancestors at the 13th generation (and 14518 to 15753 at the 14th generation). Marriages between more distant cousins, also have an impact, but these are ignored here, following the original argument of Wachter. Wachter (1978) asserts, and Smith (2001) provides some limited evidence, that second cousin marriages are much less common than first cousin marriages, and third or more distant cousin marriages occur no more frequently than would be expected from the number of third, etc., cousins in the population. Third, etc., cousin marriages are therefore very rare. Sturges and Haggett (1987) estimated the average growth rate of the English population c.1350-c.1994 was 1.14 times per generation, implying 2.28 surviving children per couple. With an average 2.28 children per couple then on average each individual has 28 third-cousins, and less than 9000 tenth-cousins in a population of millions. Thus marriages between very distant cousins are more common, but not as common as first cousin marriages until one reaches about 12th cousins, which is more distant than is possible in the 13 generations considered here. Second, etc., cousin marriages also have less impact on the number of ancestors than first cousin marriages. The child of first cousins has 24 rather than 32 distinct 3x-great grandparents, but the child of second cousins has 28, and the child of third cousins has 30. It is therefore safe to follow Wachter in ignoring marriages between cousins other than first cousins, as including them is a lot of calculation which will only reduce the average number of ancestors in 1587 by a fraction of a percent, and this is probably within the margin of error derived from the uncertainty in the rate of first-cousin marriages. In line with Wachter we can assume "wide diffusion of ancestors throughout society and the country by 1600." Taking those numbers as a starting point, then if we knew the number of descendants of Edward III born in England in the 30-year generation centred on 1587, we could estimate the probability of at least one of them being one of those ancestors. Leo van de Pas in his website "Genealogics" gives as comprehensive a list of the descendants of Edward III as can probably be compiled at present. In the fifth generation he lists 321 descendants, of whom I count about 245 as 'English' (though distinguishing English from Welsh and Irish nobles in this list is difficult). This gives a rate of increase of 3.00 times in each generation within 'English' descendants or 3.17 per generation for all descendants. This is high in comparison to Sturges and Haggett's (1987) estimate of 2.28 surviving children per couple on average over...
    2 replies | 79 view(s)
  • HitoKichi's Avatar
    5 replies | 169 view(s)
  • jllundqu's Avatar
    Yesterday, 03:20 PM
    Let's just save all the typing and just post this: "Anything Trump does is good and you're too stupid to get it." - Dannno
    53 replies | 675 view(s)
  • jllundqu's Avatar
    Yesterday, 02:11 PM
    That "Stipend" they get is more than 99% of people in the world earn in a year. Jesus I hope the zombie apocalypse happens soon.....
    11 replies | 188 view(s)
  • jllundqu's Avatar
    Yesterday, 01:55 PM
    Agreed. Thought I do loves me some Fiji water... it doesn't compare to when we take some glass bottles and fillup at our local mountain spring.
    704 replies | 96709 view(s)
  • jllundqu's Avatar
    Yesterday, 12:54 PM
    Solution? Don't send fucking Rangers into sovereign territory illegally to get killed.
    1 replies | 91 view(s)
  • jllundqu's Avatar
    Yesterday, 10:55 AM
    Majority of American farmers are big government assholes looking for their piece of the big government handout. They push for GMOs, for frankencrops, for all manner of statist favor and profit. Organic farmers and the like notwithstanding.
    32 replies | 595 view(s)
  • jllundqu's Avatar
    Yesterday, 10:52 AM
    lmao.... In B4 someone explains what trump really meant.
    43 replies | 652 view(s)
  • jllundqu's Avatar
    Yesterday, 10:51 AM
    A man can dream, but I think civil war would happen long before the gop grew even the tiniest set of balls.
    61 replies | 1088 view(s)
  • jllundqu's Avatar
    Yesterday, 09:45 AM
    If a GOP controlled everything can't do THE simplest thing they campaigned on, repeal obamacare, then they should just suck start a pistol and let the dems run everything.
    61 replies | 1088 view(s)
  • HitoKichi's Avatar
    40 replies | 758 view(s)
  • HitoKichi's Avatar
    04-27-2017, 10:06 PM
    I assume catfish tastes like chicken?
    41 replies | 1471 view(s)
  • HitoKichi's Avatar
    04-27-2017, 10:05 PM
    4238 replies | 198417 view(s)
  • jllundqu's Avatar
    04-27-2017, 05:05 PM
    Adios, humanity. It's been fun.
    2 replies | 124 view(s)
  • jllundqu's Avatar
    04-27-2017, 05:03 PM
    Hey it's 2017 and a fucked up year. Why not?
    5 replies | 253 view(s)
  • jllundqu's Avatar
    04-27-2017, 03:26 PM
    You must spread some Reputation around before giving it to HitoKichi again.
    3 replies | 137 view(s)
More Activity

12 Visitor Messages

  1. View Conversation
    Hello there
  2. View Conversation
    Crazy 'bout that hard headed woman o' mine.

  3. View Conversation
    sorry. don't know how i missed you.
  4. View Conversation
    under what name?
  5. View Conversation
    Thanks for the +rep!
  6. View Conversation
    Yeah. Wilson paved the way for FDR, just as Lincoln paved the way for Wilson.
  7. View Conversation

    Humility is a virtue, and I embrace anyone that strives for it, no matter which path they take.

    Actions speak louder than words.

    Watch my feet, not my mouth.

    That's why I love Ron Paul!!!!!

    And Lord knows I'm far from perfect, too!
  8. View Conversation
    Well... like I say - It's not meant to be a quote

    I like the Old Testament for the history of that part of the world, particularly the history of the Jews.

    I like the New Testament for the teachings of Jesus. Don't care much for the teachings of Paul.

    I think we (the West) can learn a lot from the spirituality of India regarding killing, vegetarianism, and karma.

    I consider myself 'spiritual', rather than 'religious'.

    My favorite church in town is a Hare Krishna temple
  9. View Conversation
    nah... I don't think so ("don't kill" vs "don't murder")

    I like the King James Version "don't kill". He assembled the greatest biblical scholars in Europe at the time - arguably the most intensely researched translation in history.

    Plus, 'murder' implies (by definition) that we shouldn't kill humans, while 'kill' implies we shouldn't kill anything - if we don't have to. I feel the same way. Bad karma.
Showing Visitor Messages 1 to 10 of 12
Page 1 of 2 12 LastLast
Page 1 of 2 12 LastLast
About brushfire

Basic Information

About brushfire


Don't drone me, bro!

Ron Paul
R[∃vo˩]ution 2017


Total Posts
Total Posts
Posts Per Day
Visitor Messages
Total Messages
Most Recent Message
04-07-2017 07:00 PM
General Information
Last Activity
04-27-2017 09:24 PM
Join Date
Home Page

10 Friends

  1. Bruno Bruno is offline


  2. compromise compromise is offline


  3. Deborah K Deborah K is offline


    Deborah K
  4. DonVolaric DonVolaric is offline


  5. flightlesskiwi flightlesskiwi is offline


  6. HitoKichi HitoKichi is online now


  7. jllundqu jllundqu is offline


  8. tfurrh tfurrh is offline


  9. The Free Hornet The Free Hornet is offline


    The Free Hornet
  10. Voluntary Man Voluntary Man is offline


    Voluntary Man
Showing Friends 1 to 10 of 10



No results to display...
Page 1 of 11 123 ... LastLast










Page 1 of 11 123 ... LastLast