• swissaustrian's Avatar
    Yesterday, 11:46 AM
    I know this is a controversial topic. I have had family members in situations as described here. Please keep the discussion civilized. Thank you. The bottleneck in the current intensive care treatment of corona patients is respirators. Even more extreme measures like pulmonary bypasses, i.e. the oxygenation of the patients’ blood outside of the body and the shutdown of the lungs, are rarely discussed, but seem to be in use on occasion. This text will focus on respirator use as a legal barrier for the consensual termination of treatments. The chance of survival for a respirator patient with covid-19 is around 40%. Even if the patient survives, chronic lung damage is likely. Treatments usually last for more than a week and intensive care occupancy stretches out much longer than for other respiratory conditions. The risk group for such severe outcomes is clearly defined. Corona epidemic deaths have almost exclusively been limited to people with serious pre-existing conditions (hypertension, diabetes, cardiovascular, respiratory) and very high age. The first 2500 deaths in Italy had 99.2 % pre-existing conditions and a median age of 80.5 years. None under 30 died at all. The extreme measures that governments are taking to slow the spread and therefore ultimately respirator demand are also meant to buy time to acquire more respirators. Unfortunately, though, some members of risk groups are not participating in the social distancing and hygiene measures with the necessary diligence. Some are disregarding them altogether. It seems that some are consciously taking a chance at getting seriously ill. They have lived their lives and they know that they will die of something and they are accepting that corona might be the cause. That is their good right. However, if they are gambling with death, they might also be willing to preemptively forego their option to be hooked up to a respirator. This is perfectly legal in most countries via an advance health care directive. After such an opt-out, their treatments would be limited to palliative care, thereby reducing the demand for respirators. Advance health care directives are also reducing the responsibility and frequency of physicians to make life or death decisions. Some countries have legalized assisted suicide and such options are also the patients good right, provided they are consciously taking the decision to die.
    0 replies | 36 view(s)
  • swissaustrian's Avatar
    03-25-2020, 04:53 PM
    This should benefit miners somewhat. But they are facing shutdowns from corona measures and the closed refineries are not processing their ores (I dont know when they get paid, before or after refining). But the super low oil prices should help them.
    29 replies | 892 view(s)
  • swissaustrian's Avatar
    03-25-2020, 04:51 PM
    spot prices are in sync again, but there is still a 23 USD spread to the next futures contract (April). Usually that is only a few USD. And the futures curve is partially in backwardation (earlier maturities are priced higher than later).
    29 replies | 892 view(s)
  • swissaustrian's Avatar
    03-25-2020, 09:15 AM
    great info and good luck with your project @ presence
    29 replies | 892 view(s)
  • swissaustrian's Avatar
    03-25-2020, 06:48 AM
    CME resolving physical gold squeeze with delivery of 100-ounce, 400-ounce and 1-kg bars https://www.kitco.com/news/2020-03-24/CME-resolving-physical-gold-squeeze-with-delivery-of-100-ounce-400-ounce-and-1kg-bars.html Increasing pressure from market players and significant liquidity issues in the gold market are prompting CME Group to make some changes in how it delivers its physical gold. Tuesday evening, the futures exchange announced the launch of a new gold futures contract with expanded delivery options that include 100-troy ounce, 400-troy ounce and 1-kilo gold bars. The new contract is expected to launch with the first expiration of April 2020, pending regulatory approval, the exchange said. The news comes after an intense trading day in the gold space as the market has seen strong physical demand and dwindling supply.
    29 replies | 892 view(s)
  • swissaustrian's Avatar
    03-25-2020, 05:58 AM
    Is the text of the bill public already? I would guess there are tons or poison pills and special favors in there.
    13 replies | 608 view(s)
  • swissaustrian's Avatar
    03-25-2020, 05:55 AM
    It is really sadening that this is essentially a supply chain disruption issue. Refineries in Switzerland can not work, American gold buyers can not get shipments from Europe etc. Precious metals markets are not relevant to the average Joe. But many other markets are impacted by similar supply chain disruptions which include hygiene products and sooner or later also medications. People are going to die because of this. Mining shares have rallied quite a lot recently. I think this is only partially justified, since many mines are shut down. Newmont (NEM) has revoked their 2020 production guidance because of mine shutdowns: https://finance.yahoo.com/news/newmont-nem-withdraws-2020-view-143402632.html
    29 replies | 892 view(s)
  • swissaustrian's Avatar
    03-24-2020, 10:44 AM
    I can ensure you, usually their quotes are equal, appart from cents. The bid/ask spreads on kitco were also huge at some point, in excess of 20 USD.
    29 replies | 892 view(s)
  • swissaustrian's Avatar
    03-24-2020, 06:54 AM
    price wise i agree. but Bloomberg is most respected by far
    29 replies | 892 view(s)
  • swissaustrian's Avatar
    03-24-2020, 05:54 AM
    I noticed something very strange. Gold spot price quotes on various plattforms are no longer in sync. As of March 24th, 7:55 am Eastern Kitco: 1663 https://www.kitco.com/charts/livegold.html Goldprice.org: 1594 https://goldprice.org/spot-gold.html Bloomberg: 1600 https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/XAU:CUR
    29 replies | 892 view(s)
  • swissaustrian's Avatar
    03-24-2020, 05:31 AM
    royal canadian is a buyer of mining supply, so that is negative. but obviously refining (the 3 swiss companies are also refiners, not just mints) is processing of mining supply, so that is super positive (supply shrinkage) about 1/4 of mining supply world wide is shut down, including Peru.
    8 replies | 335 view(s)
  • swissaustrian's Avatar
    03-23-2020, 03:26 PM
    Very likely. We are probably just witnessing the natural peak of this in the next few weeks with or without all the goverment measures. Without testing, there are no cases and many countries have just started testing a few weeks ago. The elderly who are dying now are not likely to be in contact with this early on, since they live in relative solitude of nursing homes and/or are leaving their homes rather rarely, so they should be behind the general population in terms of getting infected.
    4 replies | 150 view(s)
  • swissaustrian's Avatar
    03-21-2020, 06:58 PM
    this is the actual Italian death statistic from today: - total deaths: 3770 - no deaths under 30 - 30-39: 11 - 40-49: 31 - 50-59: 111 https://www.epicentro.iss.it/coronavirus/bollettino/Infografica_21marzo%20ENG.pdf
    19 replies | 566 view(s)
  • swissaustrian's Avatar
    03-21-2020, 06:40 PM
    German chancellor Angela Merkel, 65 years old, has gone shopping to a supermarket in Berlin. Her cart contained 4 bottles of wine and an extra small package of toilet paper. She has no kids, so she an her husband can get really drunk this weekend. It strengthens your immune system, I guess. Seems liske she isnt all that concerned about the virus. Otherwise she wouldnt engage in such a ridiculous propaganda stunt. Even her security is well hidden in this "spontaneous" picture.
    9 replies | 312 view(s)
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    03-21-2020, 03:37 PM
    epoch times is doing a phenomenal job interviewing real experts on China. you can basicly blindly pick any video and its going to be informative.
    2 replies | 146 view(s)
  • swissaustrian's Avatar
    03-21-2020, 03:20 PM
    I am intending to give the following text to some economists and physicians I know as food for thought. Would like to get your input. Most of the Western world is under almost complete shutdown due to the corona outbreak. The rationale is to slow the spread and protect the health care systems from collapse due to demand at magnitudes over intensive care capacities. There is an urgent need for creative solutions that open up a pathway back to normal life. A sober look at the epidemiological data is a sensible starting point. 1. Some health facts Corona does NOT compare to the Spanish flu of 1918. Back then, healthy children and young adults were massively overrepresented among the dead. 2019/20 corona epidemic deaths have almost exclusively been limited to people with serious pre-existing conditions (hypertension, diabetes, cardiovascular, respiratory, cancer) and very high age. The first 2500 deaths in Italy had 99.2 % pre-existing conditions and an average age of 80.5 years. No one under 30 died at all. The life expectancy of Italians is 83.5 years, so the lost years of those dying are fortunately limited. Half of the dead had 3 or more prior illnesses. 70% of the dead Italians and 60% of infected are men.
    2 replies | 170 view(s)
  • swissaustrian's Avatar
    03-20-2020, 05:28 PM
    its all about pre-existing conditions and age. 99% of deaths in Italy had pre-exisiting conditions and the average age is 79.5 https://nypost.com/2020/03/18/over-99-of-coronavirus-patients-in-italy-who-died-had-other-illnesses/ the virus attacks the weakest immune systems. the spanish flu in 1918 did the opposite
    19 replies | 566 view(s)
  • swissaustrian's Avatar
    03-19-2020, 07:09 AM
    you can still buy everything here in switzerland, especially the standardized 1000 oz bars at very low premiums
    8 replies | 335 view(s)
  • swissaustrian's Avatar
    03-19-2020, 06:29 AM
    It seems that an actual physical shortage is developing in silver. Forget coin dealer spreads and premiums, thats just temporary adjustments because of their higher purchasing prices on current inventory and volatility. Coin demand has increased for sure, though: https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2020-03-18/massive-surge-physical-silver-buying-totally-distorted-broken-markets BUT that is dwarfed by the big boys. The best indicator is the forward curve of futures prices. As soon as the spot price is higher than the futures prices (backwardation) we know that a systemic shortage is emerging. This has not happened in 10 years and after the last backwardation, silver rose to $49/oz. Beware, though. It is on the brink of backwardation as of March 19th 2020. It is NOT there yet! https://www.cmegroup.com/trading/metals/precious/silver.html Also watch the commitment of traders for silver. If commercials (hedgers) are close to net long, then it will be time to buy. Again, we are not there yet, the commercial number should be (close to) positive. Please note that this data is usually delayed by about a week: https://www.barchart.com/futures/commitment-of-traders/technical-charts/SI*0
    8 replies | 335 view(s)
  • swissaustrian's Avatar
    03-10-2020, 08:12 AM
    It has been above 100 before in 1991: https://www.bullionbypost.co.uk/price-ratio/gold/silver/alltime/ Silver does not look like it is about to go on a huge run based on speculative positioning in the paper market. And that matters a lot. Whether we like it or not. Check the 20year version of this chart and look at the balance between hedgers ("commercials") and speculators ("large spec"). We are not oversold at all. https://www.barchart.com/futures/commitment-of-traders/technical-charts/SI*0 Industrial demand will be very weak in the next few quarters. This will weigh on prices. Silver supply is significantly a by-product of copper mining. Once copper miners cut production, the supply situation for silver becomes much tighter.
    3 replies | 370 view(s)
  • swissaustrian's Avatar
    03-09-2020, 12:28 PM
    There is a lot of irrational hype and panic revolving around the global corona virus outbreak. I own a high tech business that is very much entangled in international supply chains. I am missing rational and sober reporting on the economic impacts of the global corona virus outbreak. So I am trying to collect and structure the available info. I would like to hear your input. This was written on March 9th 2020. 1. Health framework :biohazard: - The corona virus is apparently highly infectious, comparable to or even more than the regular flu. - Mortality is slightly higher than the regular flu, although the overall numbers are still too small to be statistically reliable. Apparently mostly people with pre-existing conditions (lungs, heart) and high age (> 75) are at risk due to their already damaged immune system. Some numbers are here: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-age-sex-demographics/ - Predictions about the overall expected spread vary widely. A rough average is more than a million dead globally. That would mean at least 50 million infected at 2% mortality.
    4 replies | 474 view(s)
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