• r3volution 3.0's Avatar
    Today, 01:40 AM
    The only confirmed cases of outside-Wuhan transmission that I'm aware of are in Beijing (2 or 3 cases several days ago, probably a lot more now). But it would be very odd, lucky, if we didn't see that happen somewhere outside China, given how many individual cases there are outside China. For instance, I was talking to our sole Dutch member, who says the Dutch media say there are no confirmed cases in the Netherlands, but that is only a few hours from Paris, where there is a confirmed case, and only a few more hours from the other confirmed cases in Europe. Given the dense rail network in Europe, it seems very unlikely to me that some fellow flying into Charles de Gaul, let's say, wouldn't spread it to others in the train station, or the airport itself, even if he were only going home to some place in Paris, and especially if he were going to Amsterdam, Lyon, Frankfurt - many possibilities. I think we're going to see secondary transmission outside China soon: hope I'm wrong, but it doesn't make sense to not see it.
    147 replies | 1670 view(s)
  • r3volution 3.0's Avatar
    Today, 01:18 AM
    The math assumes that Chinese official figures (c. 6000 infected at last count) are correct. Those numbers are certainly wrong, low, just by the nature of what they're trying to do, even if they're totally honest (which I agree they are very likely not - albeit, I would say, for good reason). There's been no noticeable decline (AFAIK) in the rate of spread since China implemented their massive (historically unprecedented) quarantines. The only good news is that there's been no secondary transmission outside China (as far as we know). That's the only question in my mind. If we get a case in New York or Seattle or wherever with no connection to China, then I'd be pretty confident in a straight application of the R0 math globally, which is pretty horrifying.
    147 replies | 1670 view(s)
  • Anti Federalist's Avatar
    Today, 01:15 AM
    Well, let's hope you're right. I'm no Trump booster...but it's a safe bet that if The Brooklyn Jew manages to get in the White House by channeling the spirit of Hugo Chavez, we'll be eating our pets to survive in another ten years.
    10 replies | 65 view(s)
  • r3volution 3.0's Avatar
    Today, 01:04 AM
    So anyway, impending collapse of Western Civilization notwithstanding, what do you my friend really think about the Wuhan virus? Did you see my math with R0s of 2 or 3 and a mortality rate of 3%? Am I crazy? Or is that indeed looking like a likely scenario?
    147 replies | 1670 view(s)
  • Anti Federalist's Avatar
    Today, 01:04 AM
    72 polls, starting roughly this time last year, show Sanders beating Trump. 3 show Trump beating Sanders. The average Sanders lead is 3 percent. https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_sanders-6250.html Freedom...even of the mangled sort represented by Trump, is not popular.
    10 replies | 65 view(s)
  • r3volution 3.0's Avatar
    Today, 01:00 AM
    Joe's a really entertaining comedian and by all accounts a really nice and well-intended guy. However, he, like most people in the entertainment business, doesn't really know anything about politics. So... ...who cares who he's voting for?
    113 replies | 2101 view(s)
  • Anti Federalist's Avatar
    Today, 12:57 AM
    Yes they are...Neo-Bolsheviks and Jacobins. They would happily start a new Reign of Terror...all they need is a modern day Robespierre to light them off.
    6 replies | 64 view(s)
  • r3volution 3.0's Avatar
    Today, 12:57 AM
    Ron Paul... ...sounds vaguely familiar
    5 replies | 89 view(s)
  • r3volution 3.0's Avatar
    Today, 12:54 AM
    ...whatever let's you sleep. (I sleep like a baby)
    147 replies | 1670 view(s)
  • r3volution 3.0's Avatar
    Today, 12:40 AM
    They're behind in consuming their inheritance with socialistic economic policies and insane warmongering, you mean? The lunatic world order in which the US gets to print unlimited amounts of dollars to fund itself is coming to an end. We're going to be looking like the backward ones in the not very distant future. ...nothing to do with them, mind you, rather a matter of what we did to ourselves.
    147 replies | 1670 view(s)
  • r3volution 3.0's Avatar
    Today, 12:34 AM
    Well, assuming that's true, that's a problem obviously, but at least in China they're in a position to fix it more easily; i.e. they actually can wash their hands, with clean running water, and afford soap, if they want to (and something tells me that the average Wuhaner right now is washing the shit out of his hands, no pun intended). I guess we'll see.
    147 replies | 1670 view(s)
  • r3volution 3.0's Avatar
    Today, 12:27 AM
    It's not a matter of "example," it's a matter of the size of the capital stock. Look at a graph of any exponential function; the West is on the far right (and dropping, but that's another story), while the East is just at the point of exploding with fantastic late 19th century European style growth. They'll be fine. Our moribund socialist empires will be dead around the time India installs flush toilets in every house in Bombay. ...but I wouldn't drink the water, in the meantime.
    147 replies | 1670 view(s)
  • r3volution 3.0's Avatar
    Today, 12:12 AM
    They're just poor, no different than our own ancestors; they'll develop further and be fine at some point. In every city in Europe, until fairly recently, sewage was thrown raw into the street or, at best, into an open sewer. See: Plague
    147 replies | 1670 view(s)
  • r3volution 3.0's Avatar
    Yesterday, 11:57 PM
    I totally agree, but the latter can also cause very serious problems. And I don't mean Delhi Belly; that's just a mild example. It wouldn't be surprising to have a dangerous disease (such as an antibiotic resistant form of something really bad, like typhus) emerge in India. High population density (like China) coupled with very poor sanitation encourages that kind of thing. China's problem with wild animals is also very serious, but different.
    147 replies | 1670 view(s)
  • r3volution 3.0's Avatar
    Yesterday, 11:35 PM
    That may be optimistic; Delhi Belly is a thing for a reason. China is in just about every way more developed and sanitary than India. Does eating or not eating weird shit ultimately matter more than general hygiene? Maybe, it certainty appears to have mattered more a few months ago when this virus was spawned in China. When it comes to antibiotic resistant TB or similar diseases? We shall see.
    147 replies | 1670 view(s)
  • r3volution 3.0's Avatar
    Yesterday, 11:14 PM
    The Indians don't eat wild animals in the same way as the Chinese, but the general level of sanitation is far worse. Perhaps eating bats is more likely to generate new diseases than having sewage in the water supply, but I'd recommend against both!
    147 replies | 1670 view(s)
  • r3volution 3.0's Avatar
    Yesterday, 10:34 PM
    There's nothing odd or suspicious in a research institute researching what's actually now happening; that's exactly why they exist! This sort of thing isn't a surprise to scientists who research this kind of thing; it was expected, in some form. Don't get me wrong; it's entirely possible that this started because of a release from that lab, but there's no evidence of that, and it's not necessary to explain what's happened. Very high population density coupled with questionable gastronomic choices will do the trick. Nature is quite capable of screwing us all on its own, and China is a, if not the, natural place, given the size of the population. Think about it this way. China has about 5x the population of the US. Therefore, all else being equal, it's about 5x more likely to generate new diseases. I'm actually surprised that India hasn't generated something really nasty yet, given the similar population and much worse sanitation (though maybe it did and we just didn't hear about it, because India doesn't have airports and highspeed rail everywhere).
    147 replies | 1670 view(s)
  • Anti Federalist's Avatar
    Yesterday, 10:15 PM
    How generous of him...just another self loathing idiot white piece of shit. Project VeritasóBernie Sanders Staffer: ĎAfter We Abolish Landlords, We Donít Have to Kill Themí https://www.breitbart.com/2020-election/2020/01/28/project-veritas-bernie-sanders-staffer-after-we-abolish-landlords-we-dont-have-to-kill-them/ JOSHUA CAPLAN 28 Jan 2020 A Project Veritas video published Tuesday purportedly shows a Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT) campaign staffer musing about a ban on private property ownership in the United States as an alternative to mass killings.
    6 replies | 64 view(s)
  • r3volution 3.0's Avatar
    Yesterday, 10:13 PM
    At an R0 of 2, the entire world would be infected in 20 iterations of the transmission. At an R0 of 3, it would be 13. The average incubation period is something like a week, so let's use that as the average transmission period. That means approximately global coverage in 91 -140 days. If that happened, and 3% of infected died, that would be around 210 million dead.
    10 replies | 162 view(s)
  • Anti Federalist's Avatar
    Yesterday, 09:53 PM
    Poll: Bernie Sanders Takes 15 Point Lead in New Hampshire https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2020/01/28/poll-bernie-sanders-takes-15-point-lead-in-new-hampshire/ HANNAH BLEAU 28 Jan 2020 Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT) is on the rise in New Hampshire, surging past his closest competitors by double-digits, according to an American Research Group poll released Tuesday. The socialist senator is experiencing a surge in his neighboring state, garnering 28 percent support — 15 points more than former Vice President Joe Biden (D), who garnered 13 percent support. Pete Buttigieg (D) and Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) followed closely behind Biden with 12 percent and 11 percent, respectively.
    10 replies | 65 view(s)
  • r3volution 3.0's Avatar
    Yesterday, 09:41 PM
    The routine seasonal flu in the US has a mortality rate of about 0.1% (the figures you give are very similar, slightly less). This new virus, by conservative estimates, has a mortality rate of 3%, 30x higher.
    10 replies | 162 view(s)
  • Anti Federalist's Avatar
    15 replies | 467 view(s)
  • Voluntarist's Avatar
    147 replies | 1670 view(s)
  • Anti Federalist's Avatar
    Yesterday, 07:49 PM
    This goes here...
    147 replies | 1670 view(s)
  • Anti Federalist's Avatar
    147 replies | 1670 view(s)
  • donnay's Avatar
    Yesterday, 01:51 PM
    Bernie fighting free market capitalism
    16 replies | 180 view(s)
  • donnay's Avatar
    Yesterday, 12:39 PM
    Maybe to figure out where the bodies were buried (keep your friends close, but your enemies closer) and keep the neocons at bay? Nevertheless, Trump did not agree with him on many issues, and in the end, Bolton got fired with maximum exposure of who he really is.
    9 replies | 234 view(s)
  • luctor-et-emergo's Avatar
    Yesterday, 12:32 PM
    Mailbox is fixed. I like 777's. They're good to fly on as a passenger and statistically one of the safest planes made*. Last time I went to China I went on the 787 with the angled BC seats. That was quite nice as well. I like the looks of that airplane. Might get a chance to fly on the A380 soon, haven't before.. But before they're out of service I want to be on one, missed Concorde as well.. But sorry, not to get off topic too far. I do fly regularly. So far this virus has not really scared me but if me feeling is right, I hope not, we'll get an explosion in the numbers within a few days. As someone in Germany apparently was infected by another person who came from China... That must mean a lot more people like that have been infected in the past number of days in lots of places around the world. If it's true that it's transmittable during the entire incubation period. I don't know if anyone knows all the details for sure yet. In any case, maybe nothing happens, maybe the virus mutates to a milder variant, maybe it becomes worse, we'll have to wait. *This statistic does not enhance your chances against the coronavirus.
    147 replies | 1670 view(s)
  • phill4paul's Avatar
    Yesterday, 12:28 PM
    Rand will be on the right side of history. He golfs with POTUS and he defends him. Rand has helped him see through the 'First Step Act.' If Trump wins re-election Rands influence my resonate.
    6 replies | 128 view(s)
  • phill4paul's Avatar
    Yesterday, 12:23 PM
    When you have Nine Clowns and Gowns interpreting the very law the nation was founded on you take what you can get.
    16 replies | 220 view(s)
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