06-19-2016, 03:44 PM
By Michael Barone (@michaelbarone) • 6/17/16 5:49 PM
As I noted earlier this week, June polls have shown Donald Trump dropping from the levels of early May, when he was at parity with Hillary Clinton, but they have not shown Clinton rising. Indeed, in head-to-head pairings Trump is at his lowest level since mid-August 2015, while Clinton is also at her lowest levels since polls began testing her against Trump. Familiarity is breeding something other than contentment.
In other words, although Trump is tanking, Clinton is not flying high. This, together with the majority unfavorable ratings both candidates receive in poll after poll, suggests there is considerable resistance to both parties' presumptive presidential nominees.
This is a bit surprising. After Trump clinched the Republican nomination in the Indiana primary May 3, Trump and Clinton seemed to be getting the support of more than 80 percent of self-identified Republicans and Democrats. Their numbers were looking very familiar to those of us who have been poring over the returns of the last four or five presidential general elections.
Not so today. Some pollsters are now asking voters to select from three or four candidates, Clinton, Trump, Libertarian Gary Johnson and, sometimes, the Green party's Jill Stein. In the three-way pairings, with one exception, fewer than 80 percent and as few as 68 percent are choosing the major party candidates.