This is from the analysis of Nate Silver at 538:
But Ames has a pretty good predictive track record. Since the event began in 1979, the candidate winning the Iowa caucus has placed first or second in the straw poll every time...
Ames does better than other indicators. Since 1979, its results have the predictive power to explain 58 percent of voting in the Iowa caucuses.
This compares favorably to the most recent Des Moines Register poll conducted before the straw poll, which explains 39 percent of caucus results.
It also does better than the average of national polls conducted in the month before Ames, which explain 34 percent of caucus results. ...
Betting markets think that Mr. Paul is the most likely candidate to win Ames. Say that
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