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Ron Paulís Success in New Hampshire Boosted his Support by 25% Nationally

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Ron Paulís Success in New Hampshire Boosted his Support by 25% Nationally

Not only did Ron Paul receive a 7 point boost in South Carolina polls because of his success in the 1/10/12 New Hampshire Primary, but he also received a boost nationwide. Real Clear Politics only lists 1 polling company as doing a national poll right before and another national poll right after the New Hampshire Primary. According to Pew Research's 1/4/12 to 1/8/12 poll, Ron Paul was at 12% nationally. According to Pew Research's 1/11/12 to 1/16/12 poll, Ron Paul was at 15% nationally. That is a 3 point boost for Ron Paul. A 3 point boost for Ron Paul is a 25% (from 12% of people to 15% of people) increase of support for Ron Paul nationally.

The 2 polls make a lot of sense. Rick Santorum did horrible in New Hampshire and he dropped from 16% in the post Iowa Caucus victory poll to 14% in the post poor showing in the New Hampshire Primary poll. Mitt Romney gained a few points from his victory in New Hampshire. Rick Perry dropped from 6% in the pre-New Hampshire Primary poll to 5% in the poll conducted after the New Hampshire Primary. Rick Perry received 10% of the votes in the Iowa Caucus. However, he only received 1% of the votes in the New Hampshire Primary. Even the last few diehard Perry supporters started to abandon him after his terrible showing in New Hampshire. The poor showing in New Hampshire led Rick Perry to drop out of the race before the South Carolina Primary.

Polls are very good at looking how candidates change over time when looking at polls from the same polling company using the same methodology. It is harder to accurately compare polls from different polling companies because companies use different methodologies. However, for fun, let's do it anyway!

Below are the national polls before and after the New Hampshire Primary that are listed on Real Clear Politics. There were 4 polls between the Iowa Caucus and the New Hampshire Primary. There were 7 polls between the New Hampshire Primary and the South Carolina Primary. Even when comparing polls that used different methodologies, the results are the same. Ron Paulís great showing in the New Hampshire Primary boosted his showing in national polls.

Ron Paul's Percentage in National Polls just before the New Hampshire Primary
Average of all 4 polls 12.5%
Reuters/Ipsos 16%
CBS News 10%
Pew Research 12%
Rasmussen Reports 12%

Ron Paul's Percentage in National Polls just after the New Hampshire Primary
Average of all 7 polls 14.1%
Rasmussen Reports 13%
CBS News/NY Times 15%
Gallup Tracking 12%
Pew Research 15%
ABC News/Wash Post 16%
FOX News 13%
CNN/Opinion Research 15%

Pew Research 1/9/12 National Republican Poll
http://www.people-press.org/files/le...%20Release.pdf
Pew Research 1/18/12 National Republican Poll
http://www.people-press.org/files/le...%20Release.pdf
Real Clear Politics
http://www.realclearpolitics.com

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