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jmdrake

Gallup poll shows opportunity for ANTI-WAR REPUBLICANS!

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It's really simple folks. We need to identify the 47 percent of republican voters that now support pulling out of Afghanistan, drive the point home that Ron Paul is the presidential hopeful to most likely accomplish that[1], point out that he's the only one who was right all along about the economy and is against the bailouts, and point out that he has the best chance of beating Obama. As for the 47 percent that think we should stay? Don't worry about them! We'll never win them over anyway and we don't need them to win the nomination! As for the 6 percent that's undecided, gently try to help them make the right decision. But even if we don't win them over we can still win the nomination. In the early primaries you only need 30 percent to win. If Ron wins enough early primaries, much of the 6 percent who are undecided will drift over to his column. Plus 62 percent of independents favor a pull out. The stars are aligned better than they ever have been for a non-interventionist small government victory.

[1] Yeah, I know Gary Johnson would pull out too. But currently he's not a factor except for giving Ron backup in the debates. I think Gary Johnson will make a great VP on Ron's ticket once Ron clinches the nomination. And yes I do believe Ron can clinch the nomination. I wasn't sure until today.

http://elections.firedoglake.com/201...r-republicans/

Does New Polling on Afghanistan Reveal Opportunities for Anti-War Republicans?
By: Jon Walker Wednesday May 11, 2011 6:05 pm

The recent Gallup poll found not only that the overwhelming majority of Americans think it is time to bring our troops home from Afghanistan, but even among Republicans there is an even split between those who say withdraw and those who think we should stay. Theoretically, this should create a potential opening for an anti-war Republican presidential primary candidate.Which comes closer to your view -- the U.S. has accomplished its mission in Afghanistan and should bring its troops home, or the U.S. still has important work to do in Afghanistan and should maintain its troops there? May 2011

In a one-on-one matchup, there are not enough anti-war Republicans to allow a “bring ‘em home” candidate to win a Republican primary. But, with a crowded presidential field, a candidate will likely only need to secure a relatively small plurality of the vote in most early states to get the nomination. I wouldn’t be surprised if, in most of the first dozen primary states, the top vote-getter receives less than 40 percent of the vote.

With most of the strongest likely candidates having already staked out fairly hawkish positions, there is an unfulfilled political market niche. This, in theory, could be a big opening for a candidate to draw votes from the entire half of the Republican base that wants to end the war, and some additional votes from strongly anti-war non-Republicans that can vote in open primary states.

I suspect the war in Afghanistan will only become less popular among all voters, including Republicans, over the next year, making that potential opening ever larger in a few months.

Of course, if the economy remains such a dominant issue, Republican primary voters could rank the importance of candidates’ positions on the war as too low to be a deciding factor.

Updated 05-27-2011 at 07:07 AM by jmdrake

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