Romney 48% (+5)
Voter registration information for Montana: http://sos.mt.gov/elections/Archives...n_Calendar.pdf
[B]At this point, ...with independents, Romney has a lot of work to do, and this is true and more problematic for him in swing states where Obama is doing just as well as he did in 2008 because of Romney’s toxicity with independents and Democrats. That is on top of lingering doubts with some partisan Republicans who were not behind him in the primary battle.
Ron Paul does better than Romney against Obama (49-41) because he leads Obama by 22 with indies vs Romney's 1
Romney's weakness with indies not enough to lose Montana but he has the same problem in states he has to win