Bradley in DC
08-01-2007, 10:06 AM
http://www.redpills.org/?p=232
Forget Polls and Pundits I'm Bullish on Paul*
Posted: 7/31/07
Author: Gary Shumway
Forget following the polls and the opinions of political experts as to the elections. Instead, the pundit which has been proven more accurate then polls or experts are, surprisingly, the political betting Internet sites. In the last presidential election, the political betting Internet site, intrade.com, called the winner accurately in each of the 50 states! Well, actually it was not intrade.com that called them accurately, it was the wisdom of crowds, potentially, including yourselves.
The wisdom of the crowds is the concept that collective judgment of many people is generally more accurate than the judgment of polls and experts. A book entitled, The Wisdom of Crowds: Why the Many Are Smarter Than the Few and How Collective Wisdom Shapes Business, Economics, Societies, and Nations, has been written on the subject by James Surowiecki. Of course not all crowds are wise, e.g., mobs, greater fool investors, etc. To have a wise crowd there must be, 1. diversity of opinion, 2. independence, 3. decentralization, and 4. aggregation (mechanism for turning the private opinions into crowd/group opinions). It appears those four criteria are met via Internet betting sites such as intrade.com and The Iowa Electronic Markets.
On the flip side, Surowiecki has found that crowds can produce bad judgments if the members of the crowd are too conscious of the opinions of others and begin emulating each other and conforming rather than independent cognition. Crowds that exercise bad judgment are those that are, 1. too homogeneous, 2. too centralized, 3. too divided, 4. too imitative, and 5. too emotional. In fact, Bryan Caplan, an economist at George Mason University, argues in the book, The Myth of the Rational Voter: Why Democracies Choose Bad Policies, that crowds may be good a making predictions but are often very poor at recognizing what constitutes their best self-interest.
Okay, so what does this have to do with Dr. Ron Paul? Its this:
1. Intrades bets at this very early stage give Hllary a 28 percent chance of becoming president, followed by Barack Obama at 21 percent, Rudy Guiliani at 20 percent; Fred Thompson, 15 percent; and Mitt Romney, at 8 percent. Thus supporting Dr. Caplans assertion.
2. As per Intrades bets, Ron Paul has increased from trading at less than 10 cents in April to his current 30 cents. Unfortunately, he has been holding pretty steady at 30 cents for most of July. We must continue to get the word out. On the other hand, Dr. Pauls rise has been 300 percent while McCain (in February the favored Republican candidate) has continued to slide. Rep. Paul is now fifth and rising. We must keep the momentum going. Dr. Paul trails McCain with about 50 cents, Romney at $1.80, Fred Thompson at $3.00 and Giuliani at $3.70. (Note: I was going to insert Rons price graph here but the Dublin, Ireland Intrade site is not generating his graph when this was posted. I will add it when possible.)
Caveat emptor: During the 2004 presidential campaign, George Soros caused Bush futures to fall from a 54 bid to 10 by selling off a record amount of futures. Yet according to David Weigel, The current group of traders have the best information of any bettors in the history of the game; theyre geographically spread out, they have access to reams of data, and they can see the media campaigns of candidates working their magic (or falling completely flat) when they flip on their TVs (remember Surowieckis four factors.) They go online and see poll aggregators like Electoral-Vote.com and Election Projection, which put up each new survey from House and Senate races. And because there are so many traders betting on each race, one or two hardcore partisans cant move the numbers very far 2004s Sorosgate was the exception that proves the rule.
I have created an account on Intrade and Im bullish on Paul!
Ron Paul for President in 2008!
Forget Polls and Pundits I'm Bullish on Paul*
Posted: 7/31/07
Author: Gary Shumway
Forget following the polls and the opinions of political experts as to the elections. Instead, the pundit which has been proven more accurate then polls or experts are, surprisingly, the political betting Internet sites. In the last presidential election, the political betting Internet site, intrade.com, called the winner accurately in each of the 50 states! Well, actually it was not intrade.com that called them accurately, it was the wisdom of crowds, potentially, including yourselves.
The wisdom of the crowds is the concept that collective judgment of many people is generally more accurate than the judgment of polls and experts. A book entitled, The Wisdom of Crowds: Why the Many Are Smarter Than the Few and How Collective Wisdom Shapes Business, Economics, Societies, and Nations, has been written on the subject by James Surowiecki. Of course not all crowds are wise, e.g., mobs, greater fool investors, etc. To have a wise crowd there must be, 1. diversity of opinion, 2. independence, 3. decentralization, and 4. aggregation (mechanism for turning the private opinions into crowd/group opinions). It appears those four criteria are met via Internet betting sites such as intrade.com and The Iowa Electronic Markets.
On the flip side, Surowiecki has found that crowds can produce bad judgments if the members of the crowd are too conscious of the opinions of others and begin emulating each other and conforming rather than independent cognition. Crowds that exercise bad judgment are those that are, 1. too homogeneous, 2. too centralized, 3. too divided, 4. too imitative, and 5. too emotional. In fact, Bryan Caplan, an economist at George Mason University, argues in the book, The Myth of the Rational Voter: Why Democracies Choose Bad Policies, that crowds may be good a making predictions but are often very poor at recognizing what constitutes their best self-interest.
Okay, so what does this have to do with Dr. Ron Paul? Its this:
1. Intrades bets at this very early stage give Hllary a 28 percent chance of becoming president, followed by Barack Obama at 21 percent, Rudy Guiliani at 20 percent; Fred Thompson, 15 percent; and Mitt Romney, at 8 percent. Thus supporting Dr. Caplans assertion.
2. As per Intrades bets, Ron Paul has increased from trading at less than 10 cents in April to his current 30 cents. Unfortunately, he has been holding pretty steady at 30 cents for most of July. We must continue to get the word out. On the other hand, Dr. Pauls rise has been 300 percent while McCain (in February the favored Republican candidate) has continued to slide. Rep. Paul is now fifth and rising. We must keep the momentum going. Dr. Paul trails McCain with about 50 cents, Romney at $1.80, Fred Thompson at $3.00 and Giuliani at $3.70. (Note: I was going to insert Rons price graph here but the Dublin, Ireland Intrade site is not generating his graph when this was posted. I will add it when possible.)
Caveat emptor: During the 2004 presidential campaign, George Soros caused Bush futures to fall from a 54 bid to 10 by selling off a record amount of futures. Yet according to David Weigel, The current group of traders have the best information of any bettors in the history of the game; theyre geographically spread out, they have access to reams of data, and they can see the media campaigns of candidates working their magic (or falling completely flat) when they flip on their TVs (remember Surowieckis four factors.) They go online and see poll aggregators like Electoral-Vote.com and Election Projection, which put up each new survey from House and Senate races. And because there are so many traders betting on each race, one or two hardcore partisans cant move the numbers very far 2004s Sorosgate was the exception that proves the rule.
I have created an account on Intrade and Im bullish on Paul!
Ron Paul for President in 2008!