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Bradley in DC
07-31-2007, 07:43 PM
http://blogometer.nationaljournal.com/

F. THOMPSON: Not The Second Coming After All
NRO's Jim Geraghty was the first conservative up with Team Fred Thompson's response to their less-than-anticipated $3M fundraising total. From the email: "(1) In his first exploratory month, Thompson raised well over $3 million - more than 10x what Giuliani did in his first month and about 3x McCain; (2) Under FEC rules, you are not allowed to raise funds "in excess of what could reasonably be expected to be used for exploratory activities". Thompson has raised an appropriate amount for an exploratory phase; (3) So far we've utilized no direct mail or telephone fundraising, and we have a burn rate below 20% - far below the other candidates."

Geraghty comments: "It's a pugnacious defense, and almost convincing... until you figure that they probably would prefer to be in the situation where they have to defend raising $5 million or more. Having said that, I wonder how many potential donors are holding off, because they want to donate to an actual, hat-in-the-ring candidate, not a dipping-my-toe-in-the-water potential candidate."

Those unfazed by the news include: Captain's Quarters: "I think that Fred has no reason to panic. In fact, I'm a little suspicious of these themes of impending disaster halfway through the year before the primaries, especially for candidates and non-candidates who draft double-digit support in national polling." Tapscott's Copy Desk: "There is also a technical term for a supposedly high-ranking GOP operative who would so quickly conclude that $3 million raised in 26 days for an unannounced candidate is evidence of "a flop." That technical term is "unvarnished garbage." No truly experienced national political operative would make such a claim, unless he was talking to a reporter looking for a quote that serves somebody's agenda."

Those arguing the less than ideal totals require a more serious rethinking include:

Race 4 '08s Justin Hart: "I've said this before but I believe that Fred is one election too early to concentrate on the virtual handshake. Romney has hosted approximately 120 in-person fundraising events since January. The average take at these events is probably $150,000+. You do the math. Better yet, Fred better do it."
AmSpec Blog's Jennifer Rubin: "First, they set themselves up for this expectations problem by floating big numbers and even set an initial goal of $4.6M from their big donors. Some loose lips then floated a $5M goal. ... even their strongest supporters agree that communications is not their strongest suit."
AmSpec Blog's David Hogberg: "I don't see how can he can afford to hold off his announcement for more than another two weeks. The positive buzz he has generated by being a "non-candidate" candidate is over. It has been killed by an inept blunder on abortion that turned what should have been a two-day news story into a two-week one and then the shake up in his staff. Now it is clear they didn't raise enough money in June to be able to say, "Look how good we are doing even though our candidate hasn't entered the race." Indeed, quite the opposite.
SC's The Shot: "This number is troubling. At this rate Thompson would only be able to raise $9 million per quarter. This figure would be about $3 million dollars less than Sen. John McCain's dismal 2nd quarter figure. Fred Thompson has been blogging a lot lately, but I think it is high time for him to put the keyboard away and bring out the rolodex."
Race 4 '08s DaveG was the most dire, writing under the header "Fred's Fundraising Flop a Rude Awakening for Cocoon Conservatives":

By, "Cocoon Conservatives," I mean the sort of conservatives who think that 2004 was the beginning of a permanent Republican majority, that all the polls are wrong, and that 2006 happened because Republicans didn't support Bush enough, weren't socially conservative enough, etc. These conservatives refuse to recognize that the Bush Coalition - a motley crew of social meddlers at home and idealistic interventionalists abroad, all united under the flag of an evangelical president - is obsolete, busted...
What does all of this have to do with Thompson? Prior to Thompson's release of his fundraising numbers, there was a conventional wisdom starting to develop on the conservative blogosphere that the reason Republican fundraising numbers this year pale in comparison to Democratic numbers is that conservatives are holding tight their purse strings. Conservatives, so went the narrative, were not about to donate one red-state red cent to Rudy McRomney, and would instead hold on to their culturally conservative millions until a True Conservative entered the race. At that point, the floodgates would open, the band would get back together, and a revived Red State Coalition would propel Republicans into office yet one more time. Well, we now know just how much the red-state holdouts are worth.