Big Trouble for Ames?

[mport1]

We need to step up our efforts really badly.

"The Ames Straw poll is now just days away. And, while three of the four leading Republican contenders -- John McCain, Rudy Giuliani and Fred Thompson -- have signaled they will not participate in the traditional early organizational test, they could have a significant impact on the ultimate outcome.

Why? Because, even thought they're not attending the event their names will appear on the ballot. And, according to a new KCCI survey former Gov. Mitt Romney (R-Mass.) leads in Iowa with 25 percent followed by Thompson at 14 percent, Giuliani at 13 percent and McCain at 10 percent.

The fact that the no-shows names appear on the ballot and that they appear to have significant chunks of support in the state lends itself to speculation that any (or all) of the campaigns are making quiet pushes in Iowa in hopes of making a surprise showing in the straw poll. Can you imagine the press Giuliani would receive if he placed second or third at Ames while not even trying? How about a McCain rebirth, starting with a top 5 showing in the Straw poll?..."
http://blog.washingtonpost.com/thefix/2007/07/ames_and_the_noncandidate_impa.html

[foofighter20x]

You're assuming a lot of the people going there to vote do so with their minds already made up.

Some may come with a bias, yes, but they may also come in order to meet the candidates personally and get a feel for the candidate's stances before making up their mind.

[njandrewg]

those percentages are based on name recognition, I wouldn't be surprised if those %s won't live up to the hype

[mport1]

Was this known before? I had no idea and hadn't heard any mention of this. I thought them not participating meant that they would not be on the ballot.

[ARealConservative]

Was this known before? I had no idea and hadn't heard any mention of this. I thought them not participating meant that they would not be on the ballot.

yes this has been known for some time.

Some of us have been scared of a poor showing for this exact reason.

Romney claims to be scaling back - which is a lie.

Since Guliani dropped out of the straw poll he has been to the state as often as Dr. Paul - and is certainly spending more money here.

[Ron Paul Fan]

McCain and Giuliani have both been slipping in the Iowa polls though and speculation is that it is because they have decided to skip the straw poll. If they aren't there to speak or anything will a lot of their supporters come anyway and pay $35 to vote for them? I think the ones that are actually there will do better than those that snub the event. If anything they will split up the neo con, pro Iraq war vote a little bit.

[mport1]

yes this has been known for some time.

Some of us have been scared of a poor showing for this exact reason.

Romney claims to be scaling back - which is a lie.

Since Guliani dropped out of the straw poll he has been to the state as often as Dr. Paul - and is certainly spending more money here.

Well, I feel stupid. Not knowing exactly how the straw poll worked I thought the other candidates "not participating" meant they wouldn't be on the ballot. Don't know how I missed that.

[ARealConservative]

Well, I feel stupid. Not knowing exactly how the straw poll worked I thought the other candidates "not participating" meant they wouldn't be on the ballot. Don't know how I missed that.

You noticed Fred Thompson wining county straw polls across the country?

You generally don't even have to be a declared candidate to be on straw polls. They are not official elections but used to judge a persons support.

[Jumpin_Jack]

I wouldn't say there's a lot to be worried about, I think it could help in a way. The people that might vote for Romney are probably open to the idea of voting for other neocons, so their votes should be split up. People that are open to the idea of voting for anyone, and who want to learn more there will probably vote for Paul or Huckabee, or one of the others.

[stevedasbach]

In the past, leading candidates who skipped the straw poll (e.g. McCain 1999) finished near the bottom. The party doesn't like to reward those who diss their fundraising event.

[ARealConservative]

In the past, leading candidates who skipped the straw poll (e.g. McCain 1999) finished near the bottom. The party doesn't like to reward those who diss their fundraising event.

Never in the past have so many 'top tier' sat out of the poll.

When it comes to voting, many will cast a vote for who they think will be the eventual nominee - Guliani or Fred Lobbyist.