Projection has RP @ 17% in Florida

[williameis]

http://www.redtelegram.com/2008/01/21/projected-ron-paul-results/

I looked at the RP primary vote projection model referenced above, and it puts a lot of emphasis on 18-35 year old males in each state (I think the per capita donations per state should be a little higher). I'm not sure how warranted the emphasis on 18-35 year olds is, but a 17% showing in Florida would be way above the MSM polls that have Ron at 5%.

[mongoose]

46% in NJ? Wow!

[AlexMerced]

confidence level in these numbers, margin of error?

[Trigonx]

damn my state of WI has almost the lowest % on that website :(

[williameis]

confidence level in these numbers, margin of error?

I'd say low and low. It is a projection, not a poll.

[AlexMerced]

actually now that I've read it, it's fair projection


funny thing, is that it's almost dead on with the states I though we'd do well in and ones we wouldn't. Turnout is key

[jake]

damn my state of WI has almost the lowest % on that website :(

you have lots of work to do!

[mongoose]

I am in VA showing 6.9%. I'm hoping it will be much higher. He won a recent straw poll and there are plenty of roadside signs here in Alexandria.

[ronpaulfollower999]

confidence level in these numbers, margin of error?

...


The largest error so far is Nevada, which had a 3.5% higher then expected turnout.

[Staupostek]

confidence level in these numbers, margin of error?

One thing that I have noticed in this election cycle is that the media no longer puts the margin of error at the bottom of the polls they show on TV. Given how wrong they have been several times, maybe the methodology of the polls this year has changed...maybe to sway results? :rolleyes:

[xerigen]

Wow, considering his other projections have been pretty close, this is pretty cool! 17% in Florida could create like a 5-way tie in 1st and I would lose my mind.

[MRoCkEd]

thats interesting

[ClayTrainor]

Wow, considering his other projections have been pretty close, this is pretty cool! 17% in Florida could create like a 5-way tie in 1st and I would lose my mind.

That would be such an interesting result man!

[InJ3cted]

its either high C.I and high M.O.E or Low C.I and Lower M.O.E depending on the sample size?

[nate895]

17% in Florida=the big MO

[JimInNY]

Wow, this would be the BOMB!

[Janet0116]

Wow his projections so far have been pretty accurate. Go Hogs!

[trey4sports]

17% in Florida=the big MO



love your sig, very inspirational

[brandon]

I dont have excel. Can someone post a screen shot or copypasta the data?

[nate895]

love your sig, very inspirational

Same thing I thought when I first read the quote a few years back.

[Psych0t]

Wasn't Alabama the state that donated 7 million collectively to Ron Paul? it's showing them only at 18% :(

[hellsingfan]

if this is correct to any degree then we need hell-a-lot of work to be done, especially in california, that is one important state!

[Chester Copperpot]

confidence level in these numbers, margin of error?

im in NJ.. 46% ?? Id be more assured if we picked up maine before super tuesday OR beat rudy in florida

[priest_of_syrinx]

Cool, North Dakota projected for about 18%!

I doubt it, though. This state's a name recognition state. Willard won our straw poll in a landslide.

[literatim]

This is also assuming no growth.

[nate895]

Wasn't Alabama the state that donated 7 million collectively to Ron Paul? it's showing them only at 18% :(

If Alabama has donated 7 mil, that is simply amazing.

[PhillyEagles11]

Were these projections made before or after the previous primaries? Anybody can make a model that includes past data. If they were made before the primaries I will be more likely to believe it.

[mokkan88]

Not going to happen. That poll relies on young voters. My generation has proven time and time again that we are incapable of leaving the basement to get out and do something.

[nate895]

Cool, North Dakota projected for about 18%!

I doubt it, though. This state's a name recognition state. Willard won our straw poll in a landslide.

Is Willard a nickname for someone? I have no idea who it is.

[justatrey]

I thought Alaska was our first place state?

17%?

[williameis]

Were these projections made before or after the previous primaries? Anybody can make a model that includes past data. If they were made before the primaries I will be more likely to believe it.

The blog says it was made after the Iowa & New Hampshire primaries. The creation date on the google doc is Jan 10th (2 days after NH).

[Son of Detroit]

Willard (Mitt) Romney

[evadmurd]

There is absolutely no way in the world that 46% will hold up in New Jersey....not even close.

[Jae0]

I trust no polls. But it would be nice.

[literatim]

I trust no polls. But it would be nice.

These aren't polls, these are projections based on certain data.

[williameis]

There is absolutely no way in the world that 46% will hold up in New Jersey....not even close.

It is the number 1 state in per capita pledges on ronpaul2008.com (# of people pledging, not $ amounts). I'd be curious to know the size of the libertarian party there... don't see it listed on http://njlp.org

[InLoveWithRon]

46% in NJ? Wow!

NJ is over 50% independent voters


.

[Jae0]

These aren't polls, these are projections based on certain data.

Ok let me put it this way then.

I dont trust any numbers except for the actual primary/causes result numbers.

[rockandrollsouls]

this seems to have been fairly accurate...if this holds up, we could be doing great. Get to work on the lower states on the list!

[arbnranger]

North Cack-a-lack showing nicely at third place!

I felt like I was getting through to a few people.

Even the confused looks in their eyes, as they passed through the red lights and intersections, told me they would find the answer they had been searching for.

Even the cops that told my brother and I that we were being to loud in public, turned around with a nice lesson on liberty and freedom that they seemed to appreciate.

Ya never know how much difference you make but my positive thinking makes me want to keep going.

I've almost forgotten the few people that I wanted to take a hammer to.

[Oyate]

Wow, considering his other projections have been pretty close, this is pretty cool! 17% in Florida could create like a 5-way tie in 1st and I would lose my mind.

Uh...let's just say it's a far-from-proven metric. There's just way too many other factors coming into play. On the other hand, if Paul does come in around 17-18% in FL that would completely throw FL into disarray.

1. Rudy will perform down there. Half the retiree population is from NY and surrounding areas. The "Jewish vote" loves him. He'll take up to 15%.

2. He'll be competing with Thompson who will make a showing. FL might be his best state remaining besides CA. People like media stars in FL and CA. Squeeze him in for 10% tops.

3. Huckabee will take a large portion of evangelicals, being in the Bible Belt. Look near 30% for Huckster.

4. McCain is a known quantity in any state. He'll divide evangelicals with Huckabee. I'd throw him in for 25%.

5. I don't see Romney selling on this one. If he makes double digits I'll be astounded.

This is pure guesswork for me, but I'm guessing we have a chance at 3rd place in FL, beating Romney, Thompson and Giuliani. That would give us great bounce!

[AlbemarleNC0003]

North Cack-a-lack showing nicely at third place!

I felt like I was getting through to a few people.

I've run into at least 5 RP supporters just running errands here outside of Charlotte in the past 3 days. Stickers and signs are going up too. Getting together with another precinct leader this week to hand out fliers. Got my laser printer in overdrive pumping out fliers. NC could go to Paul on May 6.

[RPsupporterAtHeart]

If it comes close in the next couple the chart may be on to something. WORK HARD PEOPLE!

[Staupostek]

Just remember, Ron Paul can lead every poll and everyone you talk to can support him, but nobody actually votes for him, he loses. Voting it the most important part of this whole equation so everyone be sure to do it.

[specsaregood]

NJ is over 50% independent voters
.

You mean UNaffiliated. There is a difference here.
The nice part is that Unaffiliated voters in NJ can "Declare" at the polling place and vote in the Republican primary. And in my areas the Unaffiliated outnumber the republicans 5:1. We have been targetting them HARD via canvassing.

NJ has a very active bunch of meetup groups. I'd love to see this 40%+ number, I doubt it, but would LOVE it. Very interesting indeed.

[hueylong]

Statistically meaningless. Interesting, but meaningless.

[Alex Libman]

I'm afraid that some of my, um, hard work has screwed the NJ numbers... ;-)

[Give me liberty]

So Florida is almost becameing a win win for ron paul? 0.0

[williameis]

Florida (and NJ and Arkansas) had a data feed error. I left a comment for the admin

[Bilgefisher]

well, he's been fairly accurate so far. The best part, his projections have been mostly low (except SC). Thats good news.

[Bilgefisher]

17% in Florida would be a major boost before Super Tuesday.

Top States on Super Tuesday
New Jersey - 46%
Arkansas - 34.6%
Delaware - 27.6%
Utah - 26.1%
Colorado - 21.2%
Tennessee - 19.9%
Illinois - 19.3%
Alabama - 18%
North Dakota - 17.8%


From what I am reading here, we have a huge potential to take a few states, not to mention Huckabee's state.

[limequat]

Yeah, he screwed up the donors/million data. The real projection should be 7.4%. Also, once corrected, the model actually predicts

Iowa 11.3%
Michigan 6.4%
Nevada 21.9%
New Hampshire 8.1%
South Carolina 4.1%
Wyoming 0%

I'm sure you could mess with the weightings to get a better fit.

[Paulitician]

You guys are setting yourselves up for more dissapointment. Forget about polls or projections. Get out there and make sure you get people to vote for Ron Paul. That's what matters.

[blakjak]

17% in Florida would be a major boost before Super Tuesday.

Top States on Super Tuesday
New Jersey - 46%
Arkansas - 34.6%
Delaware - 27.6%
Utah - 26.1%
Colorado - 21.2%
Tennessee - 19.9%
Illinois - 19.3%
Alabama - 18%
North Dakota - 17.8%



All these numbers were drastically wrong. Updated numbers: http://www.redtelegram.com/2008/01/21/projected-ron-paul-results/

[arbnranger]

Rhode Island is a bunch of dirt-bags.

:)

[Give me liberty]

Now that the guy has fixed its error his Projected Ron Paul results doesn't do any favors to '
ron paul.

And i think a Projected is like a poll, thats why i dont buy this junk.