Huge Black Monday

[ghemminger]

blood all over the street.

-ALL US stocks are overvalued like pigs.
-MOST are full up to their nostrils in debt
-Most huge high leverage tools (aka derivatives) which they will take massive losses

-US dollar getting clocked
-US consumer and Government up to their eyeballs in debt
-Money printing becoming money MASS market printing on daily basis

Bottom line: Huge market crash in both stocks and housing
Prices will collapse 50% instantly.
and you really believe these numbers ? Anyway, even if it's true, large companies like intel (based in US) take credit for that GDP....but outsources the REAL job to China or India.

people will get fleaced in this coming crash like always. Bad news is aplenty for many months and now US government is desperate. Hey, housing is responsible for 60% of all jobs created in past 5 years!!! The massive layoffs have started and will continue for 2-4 years.

US is allready in recession by the way. GM -20% sales, housing 9 months+ inventories, prices collapsing

Anyways, charts don't lie. US dollar, Housing, now US banks, autos, all in or started bear market, and most important, US consumer and Government debt in massive never seen before bull market! Hey, when did you see 9 months+ house inventories or 20% plunge y/y GM sales or 550 TRILLIONS OF DERIVITATIVES (worthless) or Walmart negative sales (never seen since existing!) or INSIDER SELLING LIKE PIGS PIGS PIGS ? never. Even 1927 was not even 40% of this.

But at the end, like you see in any hosuing bear chart, once the freefall starts, only a small 3-6 month delay can happen from PPT. Fundamentals win always in medium-long term...always.

[SeanEdwards]

I really hope you're wrong. :(

[Revolution9]

http://www.worldreports.org/news/72_global_%91train_wreck%92

"FUSE LIT FOR THE PREDICTED ‘TRAIN WRECK’ OF 2007
In conformity with our predictions of what would start happening failing economic receipt by Leo Wanta of his $4.5 trillion Settlement funds – which the whole of the ‘high’ financial sector would quickly know about – the predicted ‘train wreck’ erupted in earnest on 25th July. In the previous report, we warned that we would be lucky to get through July without a crash: and we haven’t.

• At 4.05 EDT on Thursday, the Dow was down by 311.50 points, to 13,473.57, after recovering slightly from an earlier steep fall of 412 points. It closed 2.3% down on the day.

• The FTSE 100 fell in parallel by more than 200 points, or 3.2%, to 6,251.2, the steepest decline since immediately ahead of the Iraq invasion.

The reason for the collapse was that the Wanta Settlement, which was finally slated to be paid onto the books, by 1.00pm Eastern Daylight, was again aborted.

But this time, given much more extensive financial market understanding of the implications of the Wantagate crisis, failure to credit $4.5 trillion on the books to the AmeriTrust Groupe, Inc, securities account with Morgan Stanley, New York, was immediately transferred to Wall Street stock market sentiment. There are fundamental reasons of timing for this linkage, which has never materialised previously: it signals the absolute end of the road for the criminalist financial operatives.

Among various explanations for this latest fiasco were assertions that there were serious glitches in France. Reports of trouble in Paris were confirmed when, after the issuance of arrest warrants for a significant number of bankers on 25th July, reports of their actual arrest were confirmed by several of our sources. It was also reported that former President Chirac, reportedly up to his eyes in this financial corruption, was arrested, together with other senior figures [see Note below].

Immediately ahead of the start on 25th July of the predicted ‘train wreck’, the US dollar’s slide had accelerated, with the Euro reaching $1.3852 on 24th July (its highest level since launch in January 1999) and the pound sterling touching a high of $2.065.

Spot gold was already trading at $683.90 bid and $684.15 ask on that date, and the British press, sensing a crisis, and having doggedly ignored Wantagate, was floundering around attributing all the wrong reasons for these and related developments.

Another huge full colour photograph of the US Treasury Secretary, Henry M. Paulson Jr., took up a large area of the Business Section of The Daily Telegraph – as the previously referenced official PR campaign to inform the world that ‘I’m here’, continued unabated.

Someone looking like Paulson appeared on a US TV show on 25th July, uttering empty verbiage and convincing at least one well-informed US viewer friend of the Editor that he was floundering in the face of very sharp questioning about his failing stewardship, the sub-prime mortgage crisis, and prospective or actual knock-on effects of his ‘incompetence’ on the US and world economies.

Note in this context that Paulson, of course, has never denied that he was arrested in Germany last December – for the straightforward reason that he was arrested in Germany last December. He was exfiltrated, you will recall, by British agents, and plonked down in the Washington Cathedral, where he arrived late for the late President Ford’s funeral dirge.

‘Markets hold breath for fear of crunch’, ‘Dollar slides to record low as equity markets tumble’ [24th July], ‘Italy set to bail out bank (Italease) after huge derivatives losses’ [25th July] (the Bank of Italy has intervened to avert systemic contagion dveloping from exponential losses suffered by a low-margin leasing bank enticed by easy profits from futures contracts) and ‘Credit markets nauseous over cheap debt [22nd July] (pointing out that ‘many banks are sitting on a mountain of debt they can’t sell, at least, not at a decent price) – have been typical pre-'train wreck' London newspaper headlines confirming what we warned last week.

On 26th July, the Financial Times’ lead report was headed: ‘Big deals in trouble over debt take-up: Difficulties spark fears of global credit crunch’, with some banks rumoured to have closed down with respect to the provision of further credit, for the rest of the summer. The Daily Telegraph added, in huge bold type: ‘Banks left with $22 billion of debt as crunch deepens’.

FINANCIAL HACKS SHOW IGNORANCE OF WANTAGATE
Too bad that none of the British commentators, including those writing for the Financial Times, had perversely all ignored Wantagate and so were unable to tie any meaningful dots together to explain what was really happening. On the contrary, their analyses remained higgledy-piggeldy, built upon the shifting sands of ‘pronouncements’ by market gurus having axes to grind, with no real in-depth understanding beyond a superficial grasp of technicalities, and therefore no comprehension of the following central FACT: The previously trumpeted avalanche of inflationary liquidity was triggered specifically and uniquely by the panic arising from Wantagate – as holders of illicit ‘fiat’ money funds created from the leveraging and hypothecation of stolen and diverted 'on-the-books' assets, have scrambled almost in unison to protect themselves from prospective prosecution for fraud and tax evasion, by seeking the collectivisation of ‘their’ assets through placing them with ‘hedge funds’, a.k.a. ‘private equity’ groups which specialise in obfuscating ‘source of funds’.

Indeed financial journalists on both sides of the Atlantic persist in the dereliction of their Fourth Estate duty to query ‘source of funds' – which is NEVER identified in ANY reports on ‘private equity’ issues. This rule, it seems, is NEVER broken.

Never mind, many, if not all, of these dubious entities may soon have ceased to exist, as their 'on-the-books' sources of funds dry up. No-one will now lend to them 'on the books', and they cannot divert off-the-books fiat funds onto the books, to gain belated respectability.

THE BLIND LED BY THE BLIND, AND THOSE WITH EYES TO SEE
So we have the blind leading the blind – the moral of which is that ‘both shall fall into the ditch’. This may seem unfair on the blind who are being led, but of course the author of this profound saying (the greatest intellect who ever lived) knew perfectly what He was talking about (1).

The generality of markets, investors and spectators remain blind because the full significance of Wantagate has not yet dawned in their minds. This, however, is not the case in respect of the minds of the ever-expanding army of co-conspiratorial investors, operatives, intermediaries, bankers and others who fall into the following two categories:

(1) Those whose eyes were open when they embarked upon participations in leveraged financial transactions based upon either borrowed or stolen/diverted assets.

(2) Those whose eyes were closed when they embarked upon participations in leveraged financial transactions based upon either borrowed or stolen/diverted assets.

According to Michael C. Cottrell, M.S., Executive Vice President and Treasurer of Ambassador Leo Wanta’s AmeriTrust Groupe, Inc., the number of such parties that can now be estimated, may be of the order of 100,000. Who are these people?

PROSPECT OF CASCADES OF GOLDEN EGGS IN JEOPARDY
They are the participants and counterparties in layered hypothecation transactions who were promised wild returns by George Bush Sr. et al, and who either wittingly or unwittingly allowed themselves to be enticed into dodgy transactions and contracts without querying ‘source of funds’ – deals which they thought were valid, and would yield great cascades of golden eggs, but which suddenly turned sour, or potentially sour, when the following events occurred:

1. All of a sudden, Leo Emil Wanta had ceased to be dead – as of 21st July 2005, contrary to the lie promulgated by the CIA under three Administrations. That was when the extortion demand handled by the Wisconsin Department of Corrections in relation to Judge Michael B. Torphy Jr.’s Restitution Order against the Ambassador (based upon State tax fabrications, false witness and perjury), was paid with this Editor’s private funds of $30,626.97 to Wisconsin probation Agent Michelle Riel – part of the proceeds of which were then remitted by cheque for $24,900.91 on the 4th August 2005 by the Department of Corrections to the Wisconsin Department of Revenue. Probation agent Michelle Riel then wrote (as had previously been mooted) to the Judge to ask whether he had any objection to Leo Wanta’s probation being shortened (as it turned out, by five+ years, to 14th November 2005, instead of 28th November 2010), to which request, Judge Torphy replied that he had ‘no objection’.

2. As an immediate consequence of (1) above, the lie that Leo Wanta was dead, perpetrated by three US Administrations – George Bush I, Clinton and George Bush II – and clumsily promulgated by the CIA (despite parallel lies that were being simultaneously thrown around the place by the FBI, in order to deceive the Wisconsin Court through perjury, false witness, etc), was exposed.

Omygosh.

WHY LEO WANTA’S ‘RESURRECTION’ WAS SUCH A SHOCK
Why Omygosh? Here’s why:

• For the preceding 13 years, the aforementioned participants and counterparties had been engaged in leveraged transactions without asking the usual necessary due diligence questions about ‘source of funds’ which, as stated above, they had assumed would deliver cascades of golden eggs for ever and ever. Amen.

• The more astute among their number realised that if Leo Wanta was not dead after all, they had been deceived. They started to panic, correctly fearful that they personally may lack immunity from prospective prosecution for fraud in the future.

• The less astute among them may have started to realise that the game might be up in some unspecified way but failed to wake up from their comfortable Rip van Winkle slumberland until recently (that is to say, following a year or so of these Wantagate reports). This is the reason that their numbers have been exploding of late, reaching an estimated 100,000 today.

THE CHINESE HONOURED THEIR OBLIGATIONS
Let us now take a step back to review the situation arising from the May 2006 accord whereby funds worth $4.5 trillion owned by Ambassador Wanta as sole Principal were repatriated in his name, for his account, by the People’s Bank of China.

This followed a high-level US official visit to Beijing when the Chinese authorities were informed, with proof, that Leo Emil Wanta, who had operated on US Presidential instructions with a Chinese Partner, Howe Kwong Kok, was indeed alive. (Howe died suddenly in Singapore after ingesting rat poison, shortly after a visit there by George H. W. Bush Sr. in 1993 – the first of two moves aimed at seizure and control of the targeted assets).

The object of the visit – by the Treasury Secretary of the day, John Snow, and the Chairman of the Federal Reserve Board, Dr Ben Bernanke – was to procure the repatriation of these funds, with the Chinese making it clear that they wished to conduct financing transactions with Leo Wanta, whom they admired because of his record of trustworthiness in their dealings with him in the past.

Snow and Bernanke sought repatriation of these funds ostensibly in order to purport to finance a ‘compromise’ Settlement with Leo Wanta that had been negotiated following the shock that had reverberated around the intelligence and financial communities when it became known among the compartmentalised brethren that Leo was not dead, as the CIA had lied, but quite the reverse.

• Note: Every effort had been made by the Forces of Darkness, orchestrated by the CIA and the White House, to ensure that Leo Wanta WAS dead, as five attempts were made to murder him, the fifth entailing the notorious failed attack in the Kettle Moraine washroom by a Deputy Sheriff, who had put on prisoners’ clothes for the purpose, but then fled in his County car after changing back into his official garb in the administration area. Separately, a number of attempts were made to have Leo certified insane, but this offensive ceased after a kind Chinese female doctor, mindful of what happens in her own country, refused to succumb to the pressure being exerted on her to comply.

ECONOMIC RECEIPT ‘CLEANS’ THE ILLEGAL ACCRUALS
The ‘compromise’ agreement, aimed at ‘releasing’ Leo Wanta’s claim to the $27.5 trillion ‘base’ funds and assets that he had accumulated in the course of his Presidentially sanctioned Financial Warfare against the Soviet Union, was agreed and signed off by the White House, Supreme Court Justices, senior legislators and others in May 2006.

In obtaining economic receipt of his $4.5 trillion, Leo Wanta would thereby relinquish his ongoing valid claim, as sole principal, on his $27.5 trillion – which all concerned, other than a few arrogant and misguided diehards, now desperately need to happen in order to avert total disaster.

The Editor is advised that US generals and other parties, especially the Chinese authorities and even President Putin, are again apoplectic that this transaction continues to be obstructed, with the business of the US Federal Government more or less at a standstill, and the financial markets, no longer propped up by laundered fiat funds, poised to implode further at any time (ie., now).

PAULSON’S CYNICAL HIJACKING OF THE MAY 2006 ACCORD
No sooner had the ink on the Wanta Settlement agreement of May 2006 dried, than John Snow suddenly left his post, and Henry M. Paulson was hauled to the Treasury by President George W. Bush Jr. (a decision that Paulson must now have occasion to regret); and instead of Leo Wanta collecting his funds as is his right, the $4.5 trillion, which had been paid to him, was now illegally hijacked, and has been corruptly exploited ever since.

The funds have in fact now been paid twice – once by the People’s Bank of China, and a second time by the Bank of England, the Editor has learned.

As indicated, Ambassador Leo Wanta accepted the ‘compromise’ $4.5 trillion (and volunteered to pay 35% tax to the Treasury, rather than the 5% applicable to repatriated funds), in lieu of asserting his claim to the $27.5 trillion (and all subsequent accruals illegally leveraged therefrom without his prior approval) that he held in bank accounts attached to his Title 18, Section 6 USG intelligence corporations, listed in earlier reports in this series (3).

Clearly, any abandonment of Leo Wanta’s claim, recognised by the banks as soon as they realised he was not dead, on 100% of his funds (plus accruals), remains firmly contingent upon his obtaining economic receipt of the $4.5 trillion – which is one of many pressing reasons why completion of the Wanta Settlement cannot be sidestepped, avoided or cancelled.

The value of these total funds, originally estimated by this service to have ballooned to around $70 trillion by late last year, is now believed to be of the order of $300 trillion, following hyperactive leveraging and hypothecation. The aggregate global VOLUME of illegally generated 'fiat money' funds floating around the off-balance sheet sector is believed to be infinitely higher. But whether any of these funds will have retained any VALUE at all by the end of August, may be questionable.

WANTA’S CLAIM TO $27.5 TRILLION (NOW $300 TRILLION?) STANDS
In summary, therefore, absent collection and economic receipt of the $4.5 trillion by Ambassador Leo Emil Wanta (in whose name the $4.5 trillion, to this day, are held and tagged), the Ambassador retains, and can exercise, a claim to the original $27.5 trillion ($300 trillion).

The $4.5 trillion has been paid to Leo Wanta, and ‘collected upon’, but it has not been collected by him and his Commonwealth of Virginia corporation. [US disinformation specialists have taken of late to spreading the lie that the funds have been removed. That is untrue: the assets remain in place, tagged and earmarked for Leo/Lee E Wanta as beneficiary].

Understanding what is meant here is important. By procuring the ‘payment’ of the funds to the Ambassador (by foreign parties who would be clueless about this nuance, of course) and holding the funds earmarked and tagged in his name – yet at the same time constructively preventing him from collecting (receiving economic receipt of) the funds – the co-conspirators and accessories to the fact of this gigantic illegal diversion and exploitation of his funds will have gambled recklessly that Leo Wanta could not assert his claim on the entire $27.5 trillion ($300 trillion), since the funds have been ‘paid’. This risky intended supposition has been undermined, not least by the practical reality that most of the foreign banks concur that Leo Wanta has a legitimate continuing claim on the funds held in his Title 18, Section 6 corporations’ accounts. It is for this underlying reason that they actively support the necessity for the compromise $4.5 trillion to be paid without further ado. "

more on the Wanta Plan at link
http://www.worldreports.org/news

Best Regards
Randy

[RonPaul_Has_2_first_names]

My financial adviser suggested I sell my stocks about 2 weeks ago because the market was looking volatile.

I saved about $25,000 that I would have lost.

Damn he's good. Props to you David Goldstein.

[freelance]

It's not a matter of if. It's a matter of when. The PPT cannot possibly hold things together until the next election.

The Wantagate thing has been fascinating, but I'm not sure that I buy into it. It's one of the wildest stories I've ever read. It's not like we can actually verify much of what he writes. Still, I can't help but get my fix of Wanta fix every couple of weeks.

Here's a legitimate site that nails it consistently:

http://www.jsmineset.com/home.asp

Jim Sinclair knows the financial markets (especially gold) backwards and forwards. He's been screaming for years that we're headed for a meltdown.

[trispear]

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Leo_Wanta

[Falseflagop]

When stocks are being bought on margin by BIG INVESTORS and small ones, margins will start reigning in.

On friday night at 10:00pm American Home Mortgage which had declared a dividend and was payable friday, THEY DID NOT PAY IT! Which signals the Credit crunch is worse then reported by BS media like CNBC who are a bunch of cheerleaders. The bond markets have been pretty much closed as no investors are buying and as such all these buyouts all based on leverage will go Baby bye and these stocks have run because of the anticaption of every co. would be bought out. What a perception and as such all these companies are why overvalued just look at the P/E's. So when the market dropped 80 pts in the last 15 minutes of trading and Declining way outpaced advancers I think yes MONDAY will be a very dark day. All these printing of money 24/7 is coming home. Sad day and that why we need RON PAUL to restore order.

[freelance]

So when the market dropped 80 pts in the last 15 minutes of trading and Declining way outpaced advancers

Often, the PPT pulls it out at the last minute, particularly on Fridays. It didn't happen this time. It looks like they're busy using the last of their powder to bomb gold.

http://kitco.com/

Chart on right-hand side near the top. Click to enlarge.

[MozoVote]

Lots of rumors on the yahoo finance forums about big investment houses stuck with bonds (like for the Chrysler buyout) that they can't find buyers for.

I've been out of the market and in cash since about mid 2005. I'm surprised it has held together this long. But at the same time, the big players have a lot at stake. They may be able to hold it together all the way until the 2008 olympics.

I'd need to see about a 20% drop or better before I would enter the market. It is too manipulated and overvalued.

[wbbgjr]

I also do a lot of investing and I pulled basically all of my money out of stocks in April.

I try to mix in a bit of Buffett, Lynch, Seigel in my investing strategy and I'm not supposed to time the market, but I see the Housing troubles as a big problem.

Just think how much the real estate problem has already affected the economy and it still has a long way to go. The pain is still just ahead.

[kimosabi]

I also do a lot of investing and I pulled basically all of my money out of stocks in April.

I try to mix in a bit of Buffett, Lynch, Seigel in my investing strategy and I'm not supposed to time the market, but I see the Housing troubles as a big problem.

Just think how much the real estate problem has already affected the economy and it still has a long way to go. The pain is still just ahead.

Unfortunately just the problems in the Sub-Prime Housing Mortgage Market have only just begun, there is another 2 years of ARM Mortgages to reset by themselves.

This is just the beginning...

[briatx]

There will be an enormous credit bust. It's already happening, and its just the beginning.

Check out Mish's blog at http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/ for more information. Btw, Mish is a huge Ron Paul supporter, and mentions him periodically in his blogs.

[MozoVote]

We are only just beginning to get into the fat part of the curve for mortgage resets and rate adjustments. And the foreclosure problem has already been mainstream news for most of this year(?!?) The next two years could be an apocalypse, in overbuilt and overappreciiated markets.

Sometimes I think maybe Dr Paul should not win... I feel bad for the guy inhereting decades of bad policy.

Dunno if this is true, but it's an interesting rumor:

"You're not going to believe this one. Brokers paid out the dividend to the AHM shareholders on Friday, as planned.

But AHM isn't paying the dividend. So now brokers are going to have to try to get it back.
"

I guess brokers for street name accounts can just adjust the dividend back out again. But for anybody receiving their dividends as checks... sounds like those are gonna bounce!

[G-khan]

I agree at some point the entire paper empire will come down like a house of cards.

I don't know if the time is here and now or not? You have to consider that those who control the markets can print and make paper to buy and manipulate things any way they want for the most part, or until it is beyond their control. We have not had a 10 or 15 percent correction for over a year and we are due for one.. Is it beyond their control? We shall see?

Markets may be up on Monday just because so many are predicting it to tank..

[Original_Intent]

We are only just beginning to get into the fat part of the curve for mortgage resets and rate adjustments. And the foreclosure problem has already been mainstream news for most of this year(?!?) The next two years could be an apocalypse, in overbuilt and overappreciiated markets.

Sometimes I think maybe Dr Paul should not win... I feel bad for the guy inhereting decades of bad policy.

Dunno if this is true, but it's an interesting rumor:

"You're not going to believe this one. Brokers paid out the dividend to the AHM shareholders on Friday, as planned.

But AHM isn't paying the dividend. So now brokers are going to have to try to get it back.
"
I guess brokers for street name accounts can just adjust the dividend back out again. But for anybody receiving their dividends as checks... sounds like those are gonna bounce!

I know what you mean. If RP does manage to win and is able to BEGIN taking the steps that need to be taken, there is no question the country is in for at least a GENERATION of very hard times.

Sad thing is, if history teaches us anything, that RP will probably be blamed for the ugliness, when in fact it is just the bills coming due on a century of living the high life on credit. It is not going to be a great thing to experience, and yet I hope we are the generation that says "enough is enough, no more mortgaging my children's future so we can have the good life".

Anyone who has ever had to dig themselves out of even a small amount of debt knows it is tough to keep working your a$$ of and not be able to afford anything because you are putting all your money toward paying off debt. Yet we need to do exactly that over probably at least a couple of decades if we are going to fix things.

[wbbgjr]

I know what you mean. If RP does manage to win and is able to BEGIN taking the steps that need to be taken, there is no question the country is in for at least a GENERATION of very hard times.

Sad thing is, if history teaches us anything, that RP will probably be blamed for the ugliness, when in fact it is just the bills coming due on a century of living the high life on credit. It is not going to be a great thing to experience, and yet I hope we are the generation that says "enough is enough, no more mortgaging my children's future so we can have the good life".

Anyone who has ever had to dig themselves out of even a small amount of debt knows it is tough to keep working your a$$ of and not be able to afford anything because you are putting all your money toward paying off debt. Yet we need to do exactly that over probably at least a couple of decades if we are going to fix things.

That's why I'm hoping for a hard landing to wipe out these debts. Investors need to take the hits, which they've already have, but a lot more is coming. Americans can take a hard hit, we seem to have short term memories and will get right back into investing in a few years. The good news (or maybe bad news?) is that the equity bubble is worldwide so it's not just America that's going to get hit and hopeuflly we won't lose ground just on that.

[Matt Collins]

Yall should be investing using broad-based mutual funds which are largely immune to the ups and downs of the market. A good broad-based mutual fund will average 8-12% over the course of many years regardless of market fluctuations.

See this:
http://www.daveramsey.com/etc/cms/index.cfm?intContentID=2494#mutual_fund

[Matt Collins]

My financial adviser suggested I sell my stocks about 2 weeks ago because the market was looking volatile.

I saved about $25,000 that I would have lost.

Damn he's good. Props to you David Goldstein.Sounds like he's Jewish! :D

[BIG_J]

Hi guys, you may be wondering where we are getting such crazy Ideas as housing market crashes, and other such "non-sense".

Please check out the following blogs for more information

patrick.net
housingpanic.blogspot.com

Along with Mish, which was mentioned earlier, those are the best blogs I have found regarding the credit bubble! If Monday is as black as "They" are saying it might be, it might open the door even further for Ron Paul!

[Shink]

I know what you mean. If RP does manage to win and is able to BEGIN taking the steps that need to be taken, there is no question the country is in for at least a GENERATION of very hard times.

Sad thing is, if history teaches us anything, that RP will probably be blamed for the ugliness, when in fact it is just the bills coming due on a century of living the high life on credit. It is not going to be a great thing to experience, and yet I hope we are the generation that says "enough is enough, no more mortgaging my children's future so we can have the good life".

I think that point is extremely interesting, and it causes me to wonder--would the people pulling strings in this election 'allow' him to win so he can take the blame for the next Depression? It would allow the people behind the Federal Reserve (et al) to sneak out of a back door and it would make the general population believe Ron Paul's economic stance was wrong all along. Wow.

[MsDoodahs]

I really hope you're wrong. :(

It would appear I'm the lone neutral to bullish voice, but I say to you Sean - take heart!

Shift perspective.

If stock prices and home prices collapse 50% instantly on Monday morning...well, I do love to shop the clearance racks!:)

Keep time preference in mind. Consider the longer term view.

If currency, real estate, and the stock market suffer the horrific collapse predicted above - and if you have a long time horizon - you'll be seeing what I would consider a once in a lifetime ... buying opportunity!

Money is not made by the person who stays on the sidelines because he lives in fear of a collapse.

Money is not made by the person who sells during a collapse.

Money is made by the person who buys after the collapse.

Something else to ... bear ;) ... in mind.

Some people make their living predicting that the collapse is just around the corner - and if you buy their book/buy a subscription to their newsletter, they can teach you how to protect yourself.

Is it smart to follow the advice of someone who has been predicting that the collapse is just around the corner - for decades?

Check out the Guru Grades at www.cxoadvisory.com. (note: their server is down as I post this).

[Lord Xar]

hmmm what about 401K monies. how can you move that without a HUGE hit....

any suggestions?

[Shink]

Sorry to bump my post, but I'd like to hear what you guys think. (Bottom of last page=nobody will look)


I know what you mean. If RP does manage to win and is able to BEGIN taking the steps that need to be taken, there is no question the country is in for at least a GENERATION of very hard times.

Sad thing is, if history teaches us anything, that RP will probably be blamed for the ugliness, when in fact it is just the bills coming due on a century of living the high life on credit. It is not going to be a great thing to experience, and yet I hope we are the generation that says "enough is enough, no more mortgaging my children's future so we can have the good life".

I think that point is extremely interesting, and it causes me to wonder--would the people pulling strings in this election 'allow' him to win so he can take the blame for the next Depression? It would allow the people behind the Federal Reserve (et al) to sneak out of a back door and it would make the general population believe Ron Paul's economic stance was wrong all along. Wow.

[nullvalu]

I don't think they'd give up so easily. Then again, they did the same thing to Andrew Jackson.

[Avalon]

I think that point is extremely interesting, and it causes me to wonder--would the people pulling strings in this election 'allow' him to win so he can take the blame for the next Depression? It would allow the people behind the Federal Reserve (et al) to sneak out of a back door and it would make the general population believe Ron Paul's economic stance was wrong all along. Wow.

I certainly don't think they want him to win...but depending on the situation, yes I think they will do this. I think they did exactly that to Carter. Ron Paul will be walking a tightrope, because no matter how slowly he makes changes in government spending, the banks can crash the system at any time. He will probably need to increase government spending at times.

[ThePieSwindler]

Sorry to bump my post, but I'd like to hear what you guys think. (Bottom of last page=nobody will look)



I think that point is extremely interesting, and it causes me to wonder--would the people pulling strings in this election 'allow' him to win so he can take the blame for the next Depression? It would allow the people behind the Federal Reserve (et al) to sneak out of a back door and it would make the general population believe Ron Paul's economic stance was wrong all along. Wow.

That would be pretty absurd and Americans would have to be idiots to believe that, though they obviously would anyways. How could Ron be wrong when he is the one footing the bills of the previous administrations and dealing with exactly the problems he has warned about. Ron would address the nation and explain exactly what is going on. All the intelligent minds in the financial community would understand that he is correct and has the right policy for dealing with a situation caused by the house of cards of debt and credit.

[Shink]

My response to ThePieSwindler would require knowing him better. I have an answer for you if you think there are people who control the media. If not, then I'll just hope for the best. I'm not saying the scenario where they let Paul win to take blame for an economic crash is necessarily likely, but it's a possibility.

[michaelwise]

Just remember, the stock market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent. There is a strong possibility that tomorrow will be Black Monday, but the possibility remains that it will not. The Presidents working group, aka Plunge Protection Team, will be working overtime to manipulate the market. The big money interests will be jumping in as well, using your 401k money to prop up the market, only to siphon it off the next day.

Over all, the fundamentals remain very bad and getting worse, and even the PPT will not be able to contain the mess. With 415 trillion dollars of notational value in collateralized debt obligations around the world, 10 times the world GDP, the central banksters will not be able to contain the world wide collapse. This will give us the opportunity to finally wrestle control back from the beast.

[MsDoodahs]

hmmm what about 401K monies. how can you move that without a HUGE hit....

any suggestions?

I'm not aware of anything you can do if your 401k is not self directed.

[ThePieSwindler]

My response to ThePieSwindler would require knowing him better. I have an answer for you if you think there are people who control the media. If not, then I'll just hope for the best. I'm not saying the scenario where they let Paul win to take blame for an economic crash is necessarily likely, but it's a possibility.

Of course there are people who control the media. Rupert Murdoch is in cahoots with many of the elites, he attends bilderberg, etc. Ted Turner is just as bad. No i know there's obviously going to be blame directed toward the president, but thats inevitable. However, the financial media for the most part will recognize that the resulting problems are caused by what Ron was talking about before he became elected. If what you are saying does come to pass, then we can only hope it happens early in his presidency so that it will be very difficult logically to put the blame on the new president for the rotten fruits of bad policy falling right when he enters office. It will also give him plenty of time to try to work toward fixing the issue (cutting spending!). And yes, there will be times when Ron will need to increase spending, but he would be increasing it from the base levels to which he and congress would have lowered it in the first place, thus it would still be MUCH lower than it is now.

[BIG_J]

MsDooahs...

Well, I'm not a bear, however, there *WILL* be a real estate crash; which of course, I will take advantage of when housing becomes affordable.

[MozoVote]

I'm not ready to believe in wholesale collapse, most people that predict doom are wrong.

However, we have definately not heard the last of the hedge fund blowups. For example, during the tech bust, the news did not stop with Global Crossing.

As long as foreclosures are rising and home prices falling, I will remain very defensive. These things bode ill for the consumer, and if people have no money, they WILL stop buying stuff.

[Avalon]

hmmm what about 401K monies. how can you move that without a HUGE hit....

any suggestions?

If you don't like the investment options available in your 401k plan, roll it over into an IRA of your choice (self directed if you want). And if you want to protect against income taxes increases, start rolling IRA money into a Roth IRA.

[michaelwise]

I'm not aware of anything you can do if your 401k is not self directed.

You can change the percentages in your 401K. You can reallocate your investments into other assets without paying any taxes or penalties. Go to your plan administrator or HR department and tell them you want to make a reallocation in your 401K. You could reallocate your money int money-market funds, US bond funds, If they have foreign currency funds, that would be good too.

I've done very well in precious metals funds as well.

[MozoVote]

Also, FWIW... one of the best confirmations that a recession is in place are new car sales and days supply. Keep an eye on these. If day's supply starts getting well over 3 months, we have a real problem. (It might take the National Bureau of Economic Research several months later than that to officially declare a recession.)

It is starting to sound like Orange County CA is experiencing trouble. Watch to see if this spreads.

OC Register article (http://www.ocregister.com/money/sales-orange-county-1788848-honda-new)

[DjLoTi]

lol, do you guys think this is going to happen tomorrow? I doubt it. lol

if it does, though, it sure will be an interesting watch ...

[michaelwise]

Also, FWIW... one of the best confirmations that a recession is in place are new car sales and days supply. Keep an eye on these. If day's supply starts getting well over 3 months, we have a real problem. (It might take the National Bureau of Economic Research several months later than that to officially declare a recession.)

It is starting to sound like Orange County CA is experiencing trouble. Watch to see if this spreads.

OC Register article (http://www.ocregister.com/money/sales-orange-county-1788848-honda-new)


Their is also something called , the new car dealers index. It went negative about 6 months ago, and has predicted a recession, 100% of the time.

[MsDoodahs]

MsDooahs...

Well, I'm not a bear, however, there *WILL* be a real estate crash; which of course, I will take advantage of when housing becomes affordable.

Big J is wise.

:D

[Shink]

MsDooahs...

Well, I'm not a bear, however, there *WILL* be a real estate crash; which of course, I will take advantage of when housing becomes affordable.

What do you guys think of my situation? My wife and I just recently got approved for a home loan (thirty years (?!? I think) that's about $30K. I live in Iowa, and compared to most other places, good houses are cheap as it is. We're getting the home from someone I happen to know, so he took our low bid of ~25K. Our payments should be cheap as hell every month...but I am still gonna get fucked somehow by a crash?

[ThePieSwindler]

What do you guys think of my situation? My wife and I just recently got approved for a home loan (thirty years (?!? I think) that's about $30K. I live in Iowa, and compared to most other places, good houses are cheap as it is. We're getting the home from someone I happen to know, so he took our low bid of ~25K. Our payments should be cheap as hell every month...but I am still gonna get fucked somehow by a crash?

Iowa eh? VOTE IN THE STRAW POLL and get your whole family to do the same!

[MozoVote]

Well, if that little Iowa house drops in value 10%, that's only $3,000. Not a big deal. Now, for people in California and Florida that were paying $600,000 and more, many of them are ALREADY looking at six figure losses. I am not kidding you at all. Go see:

http://flippersintrouble.blogspot.com

[michaelwise]

What do you guys think of my situation? My wife and I just recently got approved for a home loan (thirty years (?!? I think) that's about $30K. I live in Iowa, and compared to most other places, good houses are cheap as it is. We're getting the home from someone I happen to know, so he took our low bid of ~25K. Our payments should be cheap as hell every month...but I am still gonna get fucked somehow by a crash?

How much cheaper are the rents in your area, compared to what your total mortgage will be including taxes and insurance?

[MsDoodahs]

What do you guys think of my situation? My wife and I just recently got approved for a home loan (thirty years (?!? I think) that's about $30K. I live in Iowa, and compared to most other places, good houses are cheap as it is. We're getting the home from someone I happen to know, so he took our low bid of ~25K. Our payments should be cheap as hell every month...but I am still gonna get fucked somehow by a crash?

Fixed rate - and so long as you are certain you can continue to make the payment - you should be okay.

Please don't let the fearmongers frighten you into second guessing yourself.

[michaelwise]

Well, if that little Iowa house drops in value 10%, that's only $3,000. Not a big deal. Now, for people in California and Florida that were paying $600,000 and more, many of them are ALREADY looking at six figure losses. I am not kidding you at all. Go see:

http://flippersintrouble.blogspot.com

Take a look at the Miami condo market as well. Ugly.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jIQaQn722QU

[angelatc]

What do you guys think of my situation? My wife and I just recently got approved for a home loan (thirty years (?!? I think) that's about $30K. I live in Iowa, and compared to most other places, good houses are cheap as it is. We're getting the home from someone I happen to know, so he took our low bid of ~25K. Our payments should be cheap as hell every month...but I am still gonna get fucked somehow by a crash?

Only if you want to sell. And from an interest standpoint, it's a good time. Rates are probably going to rise.

[BIG_J]

I'm not fearmongering...Just saying, if buying is going to cost you about the same as renting it is worth it, however, if owning is significantly more, it makes no sense, in the coastal areas, the only way people could afford homes were on interest only/option ARMs, and when the payments reset, bam...screwed, can't make the payments and they foreclose. In fact, I work with a guy that we just hired who worked for Wells Fargo, and he said it got so bad in one county in California, that the Sheriff's office sent a letter saying they will not be going door to door anymore for them kicking people out because they don't have the man-power to do it....!!!

Since you're in Iowa, I am guessing that renting is the same cost of ownership, in which case you are alright. plus it sounds like you are putting a lot down, which will protect you from being underwater if you ever needed to sell the place fast.

[ThePieSwindler]

Take a look at the Miami condo market as well. Ugly.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jIQaQn722QU

So basically, a housing crash would be good for non home-owners looking to buy, but bad for most homeowners and those looking to sell? What about lenders vs debtors (id assume if rates went up the lenders would have benefit)? How does it impact the overall economy?

[foofighter20x]

So basically, a housing crash would be good for non home-owners looking to buy, but bad for most homeowners and those looking to sell? What about lenders vs debtors (id assume if rates went up the lenders would have benefit)? How does it impact the overall economy?

Why is any of this a bad thing?

Why don't people realize that it's the speculators that actually subsidize the consumer.

The speculators are paying for their irrationality.

I say let them. They rushed into bad investments.

[MozoVote]

So basically, a housing crash would be good for non home-owners looking to buy, but bad for most homeowners and those looking to sell? What about lenders vs debtors (id assume if rates went up the lenders would have benefit)? How does it impact the overall economy?

It all depends. It can be a slow, orderly decline that the market absorbs.

Fast busts cause interesting results. Such as subdivisions platted with streets and lighting, that for years have no homes on them. Or cities mailing out water bills for thousands of dollars because there are so few real home owners living in a subdivision to pay for the services. Gangs moving into abandoned homes. Schools without enough students to merit keeping them open.

I think we'll see some of that in the desert "boom towns" that were built out in Inland Empire CA and parts of Arizona like Queen Creek and Surprise.

[markpa]

What do you guys think of my situation? My wife and I just recently got approved for a home loan (thirty years (?!? I think) that's about $30K. I live in Iowa, and compared to most other places, good houses are cheap as it is. We're getting the home from someone I happen to know, so he took our low bid of ~25K. Our payments should be cheap as hell every month...but I am still gonna get fucked somehow by a crash?

25k for a house??? Wow:eek:

A house in the worst ghetto...where it is very likely that you will be murdered, goes for atleast 100k here in PA.

[ghemminger]

What do you guys think of my situation? My wife and I just recently got approved for a home loan (thirty years (?!? I think) that's about $30K. I live in Iowa, and compared to most other places, good houses are cheap as it is. We're getting the home from someone I happen to know, so he took our low bid of ~25K. Our payments should be cheap as hell every month...but I am still gonna get fucked somehow by a crash?

I just made an offer in SoCal for a new 1600 sq ft. home at 250k 70k less then they asked. offer rejected. Sales slow...but we still have lemmings buying homes because of 25k-40k price incentives....These people are going to eat it over the next 6 months.

[LibertyEagle]

I think they're going to try to do everything possible to keep everything afloat until after the election.

[BIG_J]

Magic 8ball: Outcome does not look good!

Basically, the housing market "bubble" was an after-effect of easy/cheap credit. Remember, that after 9/11 we had to get the economy moving again. One of the easiest ways to do this is for:

A. Fed to lower interest rates!

So they did; in fact they were at around 1%; basically the lowest since the 20's...More importantly, this allowed ANYONE to buy a house, or whatever else they wanted really, this continued to feed on itself, through most of 2001-mid2006. Then, all the sudden these loans that were performing during the interest only, or pre-adjustment phase, started to blow up. Mortgage Lenders started to go belly-up, hedge funds that bought CDO's (Collatereized Debt Obligations) and other financial instruments based on subprime and Alt-A loans started to go belly up, and now you have credit tightening, builder oversupply of the market, record HIGH prices...something needs to give...and it's going to be home prices...IN addition, the credit bubble may bring down the rest of the economy along with the housing market.

[MsDoodahs]

So basically, a housing crash would be good for non home-owners looking to buy,

Basically, yes, that is correct.



but bad for most homeowners

No, it is only bad for homeowners IF - they bought more house than they can afford or used crazy financing to get it. Those folks "speculated" and in a housing crash, they'll be losers.




and those looking to sell?

When there's a glut of houses on the market, it makes it more difficult to command that very high price. Most folks will be able to sell but they might not get as much as they want to. Some won't get enough to cover the amount they put into it, and that can hurt bad.



What about lenders vs debtors (id assume if rates went up the lenders would have benefit)??

I don't understand what you mean lenders versus debtors. Rate increases "tighten" credit - makes it harder for people who are barely able to qualify for a loan to get it. That thins out the number of loans lenders get to make.



How does it impact the overall economy?

Opinions are wide and varied on how it will impact...:)

[michaelwise]

So basically, a housing crash would be good for non home-owners looking to buy, but bad for most homeowners and those looking to sell? What about lenders vs debtors (id assume if rates went up the lenders would have benefit)? How does it impact the overall economy?

Many lenders are not being paid back for the loans, and are holding record amounts of foreclosures on their books. Not good for lenders. We have world record numbers of foreclosures in this country right now.

Commercial RE loans are just starting to go bad as well now. This is the big story of the 3rd quarter. Commercial construction usually peaks 12 to 18 months after residential construction booms. this is why we are just now starting to see commercial loans going bad now. Look at all the empty offices and store fronts.

[MozoVote]

Commercial RE loans are just starting to go bad as well now. This is the big story of the 3rd quarter. Commercial construction usually peaks 12 to 18 months after residential construction booms. this is why we are just now starting to see commercial loans going bad now. Look at all the empty offices and store fronts.

Ah, memories. Starting to sound like the late 80s in Texas. Commercial development galore and available for 20¢ on the dollar.

Resolution Trust II, anyone?

[KingTheoden]

The S & P 500 breached a very important support level Friday, to my surprise actually. The next important level is dangerously close (the 200 day moving average) just around 1448. I tend not to think that this will 'be the big one' we are looking for, however I also thought we would see a moderate snap back on Friday.

CNBC was squawking Friday morning that the Dow had yet to see a standard correction of 5% of the highs (unfortunately that afternoon it most certainly had). One thing to keep in mind is that if this is the result of a liquidity crunch, gold and silver will probably not provide a safe haven. Cash will reign for a time leading to a new phase of strength for precious metals.

[Syren123]

Often, the PPT pulls it out at the last minute, particularly on Fridays. It didn't happen this time. It looks like they're busy using the last of their powder to bomb gold.


Works for me.

[michaelwise]

The S & P 500 breached a very important support level Friday, to my surprise actually. The next important level is dangerously close (the 200 day moving average) just around 1448. I tend not to think that this will 'be the big one' we are looking for, however I also thought we would see a moderate snap back on Friday.

CNBC was squawking Friday morning that the Dow had yet to see a standard correction of 5% of the highs (unfortunately that afternoon it most certainly had). One thing to keep in mind is that if this is the result of a liquidity crunch, gold and silver will probably not provide a safe haven. Cash will reign for a time leading to a new phase of strength for precious metals.

The big broker dealers broke decidedly below the trend line as well. This is a very ominous sign.

[DisabledVet]

Hmmm this is interesting to watch. I'm glad Im in Real estate....but not the sectors that will be effected. I own those dirty grimy nasty mobile home parks...you know...the ones that get all the "Trailer Trash" jokes... I don't mind...when you are the lowest common denominator, the bottom of the barrel...the low rent district...well, I just keep making more and more and more and more and more money....

Heck my neighbor just had his new 100K Mercedes S550 repoed because he lost 4 million in stocks.... ouch! His house is now up for sale.....

[Shink]

How much cheaper are the rents in your area, compared to what your total mortgage will be including taxes and insurance?

We pay about 350-400 for a decent apartment with paid water & heat. I haven't been told the figures for our house every month, but it will likely be similar, except we'll pay around that much to OWN. Don't blame me for not knowing...I ask my wife and she doesn't know, mainly because her dad is an appraiser who knows what he's doing and is using his connections to get most things done for us (paperwork-wise).


25k for a house??? Wow

A house in the worst ghetto...where it is very likely that you will be murdered, goes for atleast 100k here in PA.

Oh, yeah...if you want to live cheap, move to Iowa. If you want to live WELL, live elsewhere. :/

[BIG_J]

Vet - One of my friends owns 15 condo's in a low rent district (Section 8 Housing) and well, he could care less if housing goes up, down, or sideways. He is still getting the federal checks, which pays the rent, and then some. (So even if the person renting doesn't pay, he is still good) There are people that will be making money in the real estate down-turn, and it may as well be us! Just don't buy an overpriced, crap-box, with an option-IO-ARM.

:)

[ChooseLiberty]

Not saying there can't be a melt down like LTCM going on, but at trailing P/E around 16 for the S&P, the markets can't be said to be over-valued. The GDP report was good. (yeah inflation nums could be wrong, etc etc). If dividend yields on blue chips get much higher I'm a buyer. United States, Inc. isn't going out of business anytime soon.

I doubt if we'll see a serious crash in the US markets until after the election. There are plenty of trees left to print money on. Time for a liquidity injection. :D

We should know more later today. This is definitely getting interesting.



blood all over the street.

-ALL US stocks are overvalued like pigs.

[michaelwise]

We pay about 350-400 for a decent apartment with paid water & heat. I haven't been told the figures for our house every month, but it will likely be similar, except we'll pay around that much to OWN. Don't blame me for not knowing...I ask my wife and she doesn't know, mainly because her dad is an appraiser who knows what he's doing and is using his connections to get most things done for us (paperwork-wise).



Oh, yeah...if you want to live cheap, move to Iowa. If you want to live WELL, live elsewhere. :/


You'll be just fine. You can work at McDonald's and still get by.

[BIG_J]

Um, liquidity injection?

Holy Crap, people are swimming in cash!? Notice all the buyouts!? If they introduce more CASH into the market, expect the dollar to take a deep dive...

That won't be good as your LEXUS or Honda will begin to cost A LOT more money.

[michaelwise]

Um, liquidity injection?

Holy Crap, people are swimming in cash!? Notice all the buyouts!? If they introduce more CASH into the market, expect the dollar to take a deep dive...

That won't be good as your LEXUS or Honda will begin to cost A LOT more money.

Can you say Dollar Collapse? I try to keep track of it on this site.

http://www.dollarcollapse.com/

[ShaneC]

Current "HUD" housing here will run you about $150k on the low end.

:(

[hummtide]

blood all over the street.

-ALL US stocks are overvalued like pigs.
-MOST are full up to their nostrils in debt
-Most huge high leverage tools (aka derivatives) which they will take massive losses

-US dollar getting clocked
-US consumer and Government up to their eyeballs in debt
-Money printing becoming money MASS market printing on daily basis

Bottom line: Huge market crash in both stocks and housing
Prices will collapse 50% instantly.
and you really believe these numbers ? Anyway, even if it's true, large companies like intel (based in US) take credit for that GDP....but outsources the REAL job to China or India.

people will get fleaced in this coming crash like always. Bad news is aplenty for many months and now US government is desperate. Hey, housing is responsible for 60% of all jobs created in past 5 years!!! The massive layoffs have started and will continue for 2-4 years.

US is allready in recession by the way. GM -20% sales, housing 9 months+ inventories, prices collapsing

Anyways, charts don't lie. US dollar, Housing, now US banks, autos, all in or started bear market, and most important, US consumer and Government debt in massive never seen before bull market! Hey, when did you see 9 months+ house inventories or 20% plunge y/y GM sales or 550 TRILLIONS OF DERIVITATIVES (worthless) or Walmart negative sales (never seen since existing!) or INSIDER SELLING LIKE PIGS PIGS PIGS ? never. Even 1927 was not even 40% of this.

But at the end, like you see in any hosuing bear chart, once the freefall starts, only a small 3-6 month delay can happen from PPT. Fundamentals win always in medium-long term...always.


Ive been waiting for a economic collapse myself.. mainly in housing and spending which would derail this joke of a run up on wallstreet as a much smaller minority have benefited from the recent new highs, but yeah I expect another crash and burn week for wall street

[ChooseLiberty]

It's probably too late to stop what's already started with inflation. The Fed and Bush are co-enablers. China holds the wild card. Like Dr. Paul says.

The government is definitely lying on the inflation numbers for all the wrong reasons.





Um, liquidity injection?

Holy Crap, people are swimming in cash!? Notice all the buyouts!? If they introduce more CASH into the market, expect the dollar to take a deep dive...

That won't be good as your LEXUS or Honda will begin to cost A LOT more money.

[ChooseLiberty]

And the bond markets just turned off the buy-out spigot. That's one of the reasons for the drop - terrifying debilitating fear of liquidity drying up. That and market manipulation. :D

Next on the Fed agenda - Mo Money maybe drop the interest rates.


Um, liquidity injection?

Holy Crap, people are swimming in cash!? Notice all the buyouts!? If they introduce more CASH into the market, expect the dollar to take a deep dive...

That won't be good as your LEXUS or Honda will begin to cost A LOT more money.

[BIG_J]

Wow- if they drop the interest rates...

Why even bother saving money; may as well take a 500000 cash back no doc loan and mail in the keys when the bills due...?!

[Syren123]

What do you guys think of my situation? My wife and I just recently got approved for a home loan (thirty years (?!? I think) that's about $30K. I live in Iowa, and compared to most other places, good houses are cheap as it is. We're getting the home from someone I happen to know, so he took our low bid of ~25K. Our payments should be cheap as hell every month...but I am still gonna get fucked somehow by a crash?

No. You got a fixed rate mtg, right? Good.
As long as you didn't pay too much for your house (sounds like you didn't), you'll be fine. The crash will affect markets where housing prices are ridiculously overinflated and people are into mortgages they can't afford (like over half their take home pay). Orange County, CA comes to mind. You bought it to live in, not to speculate on. You won't even notice the crash lol.

[ShaneC]

PRESS CONFERENCE ON MIDYEAR UPDATE OF WORLD ECONOMIC SITUATION, PROSPECTS

http://www.un.org/News/briefings/docs//2007/070530_Ocampo.doc.htm

an excerpt:


With that increased debt the risk of a sharp depreciation of the dollar continued, he said. If countries willing to invest in United States dollar assets expected further depreciation, they might be less willing to hold dollar assets, triggering a much sharper fall in the United States dollar. The risk of disorderly adjustment and the steep fall of the dollar existed. The policy challenge was how to prevent a hard landing of the United States dollar and forge a benign adjustment of the global imbalance.

[freelance]

At 6:46 a.m. CT, Monday's futures mixed, Asian markets rebounding, European markets falling, US stocks in Germany looking sick, dollar mixed, gold down(thank you Gold cartel!) and oil up.

http://money.cnn.com/data/premarket/

Should be an interesting day. Should be an even more interesting week.

[Lois]

Yall should be investing using broad-based mutual funds which are largely immune to the ups and downs of the market. A good broad-based mutual fund will average 8-12% over the course of many years regardless of market fluctuations.



http://www.johnchow.com/index.php/the-mutual-fund-scam/

Also --

"THE MUTUAL FUND SCAM

If you own mutual funds that are attempting to beat the market, and you’re hoping your fund manager can give you a nice retirement, you’re highly likely to be the victim of a huge scam. You’re not alone—100 million investors are right there with you. Fortune magazine reports that since 1985 only 4 percent of all the fund managers beat the S&P 500 index, and the few who did it did so by only a small margin. In other words, almost no fund managers have done what they’re paid by you to do—beat the market. That significant fact went unnoticed through the roaring 1980s and 1990s as the stock market surged with double-digit growth, bringing your fund manager along for the joyride. But now the ride is over, and investors are starting to notice that their fund managers are pretty much useless. This is not a new observation.

Several years ago, Warren Buffett said this about your fund manager: “Professionals in other fields, like dentists, bring a lot to the layman, but people get nothing for their money from professional money managers.” The key word here is nothing. And yet, what do you do? You give your hard-earned money to one of these guys and hope he can deliver those 15-percent-or-better returns, like the ones you got in the 1990s. Why? Because you don’t want to invest your own money, and because you’ve been convinced by the entire financial services industry that you can’t do it yourself.

Come on, get real. From 2000 to 2003, mutual funds lost half their value. You could have lost 50 percent of your money without the help of a professional."

***************

I like ETF's and ProShares.

[freelance]

Didn't we get this "news" on mutual funds eons ago? I like EFTs too, but I like PMs better.

[markpa]

I invested in Gold and Silver about a year and a half ago at thier highest price. I was waiting for the $ to crash and figured gold and silver would shoot up. Ofcourse this hasn't happened. Guess I'll keep waiting.

[golfboy]

so much for black monday.

[BIG_J]

I guess American Home Mortagage dropping 35% in value didn't scare anyone away from all the liquidity in the market !?!

[MsDoodahs]

so much for black monday.

:)

[Man from La Mancha]

No black mondays till after the election or martial law or martial law called because of a black monday.

[ghemminger]

so much for black monday.

Whew!!! We're all safe....everything will be peaches and cream....goverment paying a 3 billion a day minimum on thier credit card....your dollar becoming worthless...and everyone in denial about the largest tsunami of Real Estate devaluations in history......

Next 3-6 months...people shopping at the mall will be shopping at Walmart

Walmart Shoppers will be garage sale buying....

and Garage Sale buyers will be dumpster divin!!!


http://housingdoom.com/

ELECT RON PAUL!!! 2008

[ShaneC]

I invested in Gold and Silver about a year and a half ago at thier highest price. I was waiting for the $ to crash and figured gold and silver would shoot up. Ofcourse this hasn't happened. Guess I'll keep waiting.

yeah, I just started buying some recently. Looks like I should have done so sooner, or waited longer.

Anyones thoughts on "Junk Silver" vs .999 silver?

[MsDoodahs]

Don't be too disappointed...

After all...tomorrow is another day!

[golfboy]

Whew!!! We're all safe....everything will be peaches and cream....goverment paying a 3 billion a day minimum on thier credit card....your dollar becoming worthless...and everyone in denial about the largest tsunami of Real Estate devaluations in history......

Next 3-6 months...people shopping at the mall will be shopping at Walmart

Walmart Shoppers will be garage sale buying....

and Garage Sale buyers will be dumpster divin!!!


http://housingdoom.com/

ELECT RON PAUL!!! 2008


yea i think we're in for a crash. i don't think it will be a one day crash thing. the tech collapse was a gradual thing. the housing market may not even affect the stock market all that much, but it will hurt people where it counts.

the one thing i can't figure out is how come the stock market has been so strong lately? There seems to be nothing driving it...maybe a weak dollar has foreign investors seeing bargains?

[Gee]

Anyway, even if it's true, large companies like intel (based in US) take credit for that GDP....but outsources the REAL job to China or India.
Intel's (15) chip fabs are mostly in the US, with two in Ireland and one in Israel as well. Only their (6) testing facilities are in poorer countries.
http://www.intel.com/pressroom/kits/manufacturing/manufacturing_qa.htm#1

Don't try to predict the market in the short-term, it rarely works ;) And don't forget that pessimism such as this can effect the market itself, drive the dollar lower, and lessen the effect of any recession.

[michaelwise]

Just remember, the stock market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent. There is a strong possibility that tomorrow will be Black Monday, but the possibility remains that it will not. The Presidents working group, aka Plunge Protection Team, will be working overtime to manipulate the market. The big money interests will be jumping in as well, using your 401k money to prop up the market, only to siphon it off the next day.

Over all, the fundamentals remain very bad and getting worse, and even the PPT will not be able to contain the mess. With 415 trillion dollars of notational value in collateralized debt obligations around the world, 10 times the world GDP, the central banksters will not be able to contain the world wide collapse. This will give us the opportunity to finally wrestle control back from the beast.

Didn't I predict that this was a possibility. Don't come crying to me when they siphon off all your 401K money, that they were pumping in today.

[propanes]

SCOREBOARD !!!


blood all over the street

And remember opinions are dangerous to have in the markets.

[MsDoodahs]

Without opinions, the market would not exist.

All voluntary exchange benefits those making the exchange. They are exchanging what they see as having lesser value for what they see as having greater value.

This difference of opinion on value is what makes a market.

Example: A shareholder thinks he'd rather have $20 than a share of XYZ. He is a seller. A buyer thinks he'd rather have a share of XYZ than $20. A price is set and the exchange occurs.

The price you see quoted in the newspaper is at the locus of multiple opinions - all of which differed on the value XYZ's shares.

If they had not held different opinions on the value of a share of XYZ, the share would never have changed hands; no exchange would have occurred.

The market would not exist without opinions that differ.

[freelance]

http://www.thestreet.com/_iwon/s/american-home-burns-down/newsanalysis/banking/10371366.html?cf=WSIWON1111051500

http://finance.myway.com/jsp/ct/intraday.jsp?symbol_search_text=AHM&chartdate=2

[fluoridatedbrainsoup]

I think that point is extremely interesting, and it causes me to wonder--would the people pulling strings in this election 'allow' him to win so he can take the blame for the next Depression? It would allow the people behind the Federal Reserve (et al) to sneak out of a back door and it would make the general population believe Ron Paul's economic stance was wrong all along. Wow.


Those who get hooked on the economic drug, must go to the elite for
a fix. In this, the method of introducing large amounts of stabilizing
capacitance is by borrowing on the future "credit" of the world. This is a
fourth law of motion — onset, and consists of performing an action and
leaving the system before the reflected reaction returns to the point of
action — a delayed reaction.
The means of surviving the reaction is by changing the system before
the reaction can return. By this means, politicians become popular in their
own time and the public pays for it later. In fact, the measure of such a
politician is the delay time.

The same thing is achieved by a government by printing money
beyond the limit of the gross national product, an economic process called
inflation. [Note: REMEMBER THAT INFLATION IS ONLY THE ACT OF
PRINTING MONEY IN EXCESS OF GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT.
THEY COULD BLAME IT ON THE PRICE OF WIDGETS OR OIL ONLY
BECAUSE YOU NEVER KNEW THE REAL CAUSE. THE REAL CAUSE
AND THE ONLY CAUSE OF INFLATION IS THE PRINTING OF MORE
MONEY BEYOND THE GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT.] This puts a
large quantity of money into the hands of the public and maintains a
balance against their greed, creates a false self-confidence in them and, for
awhile, stays the wolf from the door.
They must eventually resort to war to balance the account, because
war ultimately is merely the act of destroying the creditor, and the politicians
are the publicly hired hit men that justify the act to keep the responsibility
and blood off the public conscience...

[michaelwise]

Just remember, the stock market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent. There is a strong possibility that tomorrow will be Black Monday, but the possibility remains that it will not. The Presidents working group, aka Plunge Protection Team, will be working overtime to manipulate the market. The big money interests will be jumping in as well, using your 401k money to prop up the market, only to siphon it off the next day.

Over all, the fundamentals remain very bad and getting worse, and even the PPT will not be able to contain the mess. With 415 trillion dollars of notational value in collateralized debt obligations around the world, 10 times the world GDP, the central banksters will not be able to contain the world wide collapse. This will give us the opportunity to finally wrestle control back from the beast.

Monday DOW up 91. Tuesday DOW down 146. DOW down 800 points from the record high less than two weeks ago.

And I quote myself again.
"Just remember, the stock market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent. There is a strong possibility that tomorrow will be Black Monday, but the possibility remains that it will not. The Presidents working group, aka Plunge Protection Team, will be working overtime to manipulate the market. The big money interests will be jumping in as well, using your 401k money to prop up the market, only to siphon it off the next day."

Say Bye Bye to your 401K money, unless you soon do some asset reallocation in your 401K.

I've seen this same thing happen during the dot-com bust.

I told you so.

[BIG_J]

Well - I only have about 2000, in there right now anyway. I may as well hold on to my 200 shares, and wait it out, and just keep buying shares...Now, if I had 200,000 or something in there, I might re-allocate.

[michaelwise]

I just hope the sheeple remember what happened to their 401k portfolios during the dot-com bust. It was only 7 years ago. Asset reallocation costs you nothing.

[freelance]

and just keep buying shares

Yeah, that's what we all said during the dot com bust. LOL!

[MsDoodahs]

I remain optimistic.

:)

[michaelwise]

I don't like making predictions, but I'll go out on a limb for tomorrows trading day. I think the PPT will take the day off, and let the market do its own thing. DOW down 238 points or more. I could be wrong.

[ChooseLiberty]

I wouldn't throw in the towel just yet.

Most of the people on this board realize the Fed can pump the markets at will, but some don't seem to think they'll do it now.

Anyway - you want something left of the USA for when Dr. Paul gets elected. Don't want to leave him with a shell.

[Man from La Mancha]

I'm looking into gold and silver bullion in swiss bank vaults. No annual service fee, double password security security and a small transaction fee. Not in the USA and can't be confiscated. Log in under an email account. Looks like the best of E Gold companies I have looked at. If any body knows about them let me know. The biggest flaw is having your passwords found out but that is the same as any swiss bank. The other is once you spend on something it's final, no getting it back because you got conned or bought a bad product. It has one nice feature you can set the max amount taken out per day.

http://pecunix.com/money.refined...ind.features




Pecunix Account Security:

Account access is secure by default. By using the proprietary login system developed by Siddley Incorporated, you will never need to divulge more than four characters of your password (PIK) at any one time. You will never be required to reveal your complete password.

Pecunix login security is immune to common Trojan Horse, virus and robot attacks.

To enhance your account security, you may also use strong access verification via PGP authentication.

The standard security is backed up by an optional IP number security addition and strong reporting. An up-to-date security report identifies any failed login attempts and attempts at suspect activity each time you successfully log-on to your account.

.

[freelance]

For anyone interested in off-shore, etc., check out Sovereign Society at http://sovereignsociety.com/.

Lots of good info here, and you can sign up for a free daily e-mail blast.

[Man from La Mancha]

For anyone interested in off-shore, etc., check out Sovereign Society at http://sovereignsociety.com/.

Lots of good info here, and you can sign up for a free daily e-mail blast.

Thanks. and this one

The Invisible New Mexico LLC™ Limited liability Corp.

http://www.keepyourassets.net/free.html

[freelance]

OOOH, very nice link. Thank you.

[michaelwise]

I don't know if you have seen what Cramer said about the housing market, but a lot for people are going to be extremely pissed off. I think he finally got religion.

Click on the video on this site. See the video below the first one also.

http://housingdoom.com/

[Johnnybags]

at Bear after hours. Bear says its not leverage, reports have it facing a margin call, and then BSC says it has little value left? There is alot of lying going on to calm the markets, beware, if Paulson and Bernanke keep tellin you all is well.

[michaelwise]

I think that point is extremely interesting, and it causes me to wonder--would the people pulling strings in this election 'allow' him to win so he can take the blame for the next Depression? It would allow the people behind the Federal Reserve (et al) to sneak out of a back door and it would make the general population believe Ron Paul's economic stance was wrong all along. Wow.

The ground work for next depression, The Great Depression II is currently under way. We will be in a depression by the time the election rolls around. This is the main reason why Ron Paul will win. No one will mistake who's fault it was.

[michaelwise]

at Bear after hours. Bear says its not leverage, reports have it facing a margin call, and then BSC says it has little value left? There is alot of lying going on to calm the markets, beware, if Paulson and Bernanke keep tellin you all is well.

Did you see the Cramer videos?

[Man from La Mancha]

The ground work for next depression, The Great Depression II is currently under way. We will be in a depression by the time the election rolls around. This is the main reason why Ron Paul will win. No one will mistake who's fault it was.


Unfortunately you may be right, another great excuse to expand Bush's puppet dictatorship. You wouldn't want to change leadership at this crisis time with an unexperienced president would you. Well well hold off the election for a while:)

[Suzu]

...people shopping at the mall will be shopping at Walmart

Walmart Shoppers will be garage sale buying....

and Garage Sale buyers will be dumpster divin!!!


And us dumpster divers will be starvin! Bloody hell, my cupboards are already bare two weeks out of every month.

[michaelwise]

I'm calling for The First Black Wednesday Ever.

[ghemminger]

Yeah...it's gettin sick...alll the lies...thats what gettin to me....

Just have a cash source and a food source....if hyper inflation hits...hold on to your horses....because Bush will be out in force to crush all opposition

[golfboy]

stocks are already down 146 in about 40 minutes of trading.

[freelance]

Another one about ready to bite the dust:

http://www.nytimes.com/2007/07/31/business/31hedge.html?em&ex=1186113600&en=c2e5147362f37a88&ei=5087%0A

[markpa]

My plan is to sell my gold investments after they go up and buy into either the (crashed) stock market or the (crashed) real estate market. What opinions do you folks have on that?

[freelance]

My plan is to sell my gold investments after they go up and buy into either the (crashed) stock market or the (crashed) real estate market. What opinions do you folks have on that?

What's your target price for gold?

Check out the second chart here:

http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?$GOLD

[MsDoodahs]

My opinion only....

The time to sell gold investments was last May, when gold topped.

http://kitco.com/charts/historicalgold.html

Go to the very end of the page, click on multi year gold, 1975 - 2007, view chart.

As to where to invest profits, I like diversity. :)

[ChooseLiberty]

Wow this market is crashing like crazy!

Run for the hills....

:D

[markpa]

My opinion only....

The time to sell gold investments was last May, when gold topped.

http://kitco.com/charts/historicalgold.html

Go to the very end of the page, click on multi year gold, 1975 - 2007, view chart.

As to where to invest profits, I like diversity. :)

Umm yeah...that's when I bought, lol.

[freelance]

The time to sell gold investments was last May, when gold topped.

http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?$GOLD

Take another look at the second chart. Gold is in a generational bull market. The monthly chart uses a 40 DMA instead of a 50/200, but it's hardly dipped below the 40 DMA since it sat at $400.

I'd bet "all the change in my pocket" that gold is nowhere near topping out!

[MsDoodahs]

Wow this market is crashing like crazy!

Run for the hills....

:D

I'm fighting the urge to buy into the financials. :eek:

First coherent thought when I woke up this morning was ...

Buy GS. :o

[MsDoodahs]

I'd bet "all the change in my pocket" that gold is nowhere near topping out!

As I said, I like diversity. (Diversity, in my view, includes PMs.)

I tend towards gold buggishness and would happily put every spare dime into the yellow metal :o ...

however, I don't put every spare dime into gold.

[freelance]

Same here MsDoodahs! I gotta have my PMs for a rainy day.

[michaelwise]

Last 30 minuets of Wednesday's trading day, the DOW went up 150 points to finish up 150 points. Some serious stock manipulation going on here. I would like to know who was doing all the buying.

[buffalokid777]

Last 30 minuets of Wednesday's trading day, the DOW went up 150 points to finish up 150 points. Some serious stock manipulation going on here. I would like to know who was doing all the buying.

Get Ready for -300 the rest of the week! That's my prediction!

Let's see if i'm right....

The plunge is gonna take place over 4-6 weeks...

Let's see if i'm right!

[freelance]

Last 30 minuets of Wednesday's trading day, the DOW went up 150 points to finish up 150 points. Some serious stock manipulation going on here. I would like to know who was doing all the buying.

The Plunge Protection Team (PPT) or Working Group on Market, or whatever their real name is. They jump in a buy up index futures to prop up the market. Watch the market closely. You'll find that often on days when the market is down ~100 points, the PPT jumps in before the close, buys up futures and manipulates the technicals in the process.

[MsDoodahs]

Get Ready for -300 the rest of the week! That's my prediction!

Let's see if i'm right....

The plunge is gonna take place over 4-6 weeks...

Let's see if i'm right!

What usually happens after a big down week?

[freelance]

What usually happens after a big down week?

PPT dead cat bounce.

[MsDoodahs]

PPT dead cat bounce.

lol!

MrDooDahs (aka NoDooDahs) did the research last night.

I'd post the charts he came up with here except ... I can't figure out how to do that.:o

Here's the description of what he did:

"I look at 57 years of S&P 500 trading history, and compare the 40 previous weeks where the S&P sold off more than 4.5% to the other 2,946 weeks where it did not sell off that dramatically."

Fascinating to see how the market has historically responded to sell off weeks...

I'm still optimistic. :)

[michaelwise]

DOW down 281 points today. Conditions continue to deteriorate rapidly. American Home Mortgage co. closes its doors today and lays off 7,500 workers. A new black Monday, next week is now an even stronger possibility than last week . A word of advice, Reallocate all 401K money out of the stock market.

[freelance]

The chart is really FUGLY. PLOWED through the 50 DMA a week or so ago without even looking back--heading for the 200, and it looks like we closed on the low of the day. OHMYOHMY!

[ghemminger]

The chart is really FUGLY. PLOWED through the 50 DMA a week or so ago without even looking back--heading for the 200, and it looks like we closed on the low of the day. OHMYOHMY!

Could you post it here and give us a lesson.....

[MsDoodahs]

What the hell happened? lol...

Everything is cruising along...not great but not horrible...I went to the salon...I get home..and discover the frikken bottom fell out!

:mad:

But, I'm still optimistic.

[BIG_J]

Okay. But, you would be more optimistic if you started shorting the Real Estate Industrial Complex, because you would have made a BOATLOAD of money. In addition, I think that subprime isn't contained, with American Home Mortgage shuttering up, other ALT-A lenders like INDYMAC are next in line. Things are going to get ugly fast in the financial markets.

[aravoth]

Okay. But, you would be more optimistic if you started shorting the Real Estate Industrial Complex, because you would have made a BOATLOAD of money. In addition, I think that subprime isn't contained, with American Home Mortgage shuttering up, other ALT-A lenders like INDYMAC are next in line. Things are going to get ugly fast in the financial markets.

My name is Ken, and I approved this message.

[MsDoodahs]

I'm going shopping.

:)

[freelance]

Here's the chart:

http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?$INDU

And the short lesson.

Volume is important. Suppose that today, just a few people headed for the door, but we had a big drop, maybe based on some bad news for one or two DOW stocks. That's no big deal. In fact, it might even indicate a turnaround the following session. We've had pretty heavy volume since the market started going down, but it hasn't been a total barn buster. A crowd headed for the door, but it wasn't quite a stampede. When you see a huge drop accompanied by huge volume, start worrying. Today was serious because of Bear Sterns, but it's going to get worse. Conversely, when you see a high close with very little volume, be very suspicious. When you see a high close with very heavy volume, load up the truck.

There are two important daily moving averages (DMAs). (I use a simple DMA. Serious traders use a weighted DMA, which is way above my pay grade.) Daily moving averages are used to "smooth out" the activity over a period of time. They are represented as lines on the chart.

Both the 50 DMA and the 200 DMA represent major levels of "support," a level that will not usually be breached. The 50 DMA (that's the blue line) is short-term support. The 200 DMA (red line) is long-term SUPPORT. Breaking the 50 day moving average indicates trouble. When you break the 200 DMA, you're in serious trouble. That is often the point of no return. By that, I mean that stocks aren't going to rise appreciably for some time. They are going to drift or go down further, and it could be years before they regain their losses.

You can see from the chart that we broke the 50 DMA the latter part of August, and we haven't surpassed it since then. That first line of support (50 DMA) is now called resistance, because we're going to have a hard time getting above it.

There are other areas of support and resistance, but you asked for a quick course, and the 50/200 DMAs are the mother of all resistance/support. ;)

There are a number of other indicators, some that will predict what's going to happen, and some that confirm what has already happened (yeah, I know, don't ask about that one). If you have a good understanding of moving averages and the role of volume, then you can spot a trend. I wouldn't day trade on that amount of information, but you can certainly see from the chart that all hell's getting ready to break loose.

I hope this helps.

[ChooseLiberty]

It's SCARYYYYYY out there.

FYI - the S&P has broken the 200 day every year since 2000 like clockwork.

Sure it could be all over and the end of civilization as we know it. But so far the markets only given back the gains it's had from March/April.

These problems have been known to wall street for a long time - years. They just kept pawning off the debt to the next sucker. Now the hedge funds, rating agencies and investment banks have been caught with their hands in the cookie jar and have to put on a show for the suckers, er, clients.

They've even got Cramer hopping mad.

[freelance]

Wow, you're right about the S&P. But look at this chart:

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=D&yr=3&mn=0&dy=0&id=p05313488418

I notice two interesting things.

First, the flirts below the 200DMA have been very brief, but look at the 50 vs. the 200 each times it dips below the 200. They're relatively close to each other--EXCEPT for this time.

[ChooseLiberty]

:D

What does that mean - exactly?




Wow, you're right about the S&P. But look at this chart:

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=D&yr=3&mn=0&dy=0&id=p05313488418

I notice two interesting things.

First, the flirts below the 200DMA have been very brief, but look at the 50 vs. the 200 each times it dips below the 200. They're relatively close to each other--EXCEPT for this time.

[freelance]

Because the 50DMA is a short-term indicator and the 200 DMA is a longer-term indicator, they don't usually converge the way they do in the S&P chart. Usually the 200 DMA falls significantly lower than the 50DMA.

Take a look at the DOW chart that I posted. Notice the space between the two indicators.

In the S&P chart whenever it dips below the 200, the 50 and the 200 are really close to one another--except for right now. I've never seen anything like that before. Doesn't mean it doesn't happen. I've just never followed a stock where I have seen that repeatedly, like with the S&P.

I'd love to ask someone really knowledgeable about that. :D

This is an ancient book, but if you can get beyond the 70s hair on the cover, it's a great introduction to technical indicators and trading in the short-term based on technicals rather than fundamentals:

http://www.amazon.com/Stan-Weinsteins-Secrets-Profiting-Markets/dp/1556236832/ref=sr_1_4/103-7896325-3583843?ie=UTF8&s=books&qid=1186182970&sr=8-4

It's one of several bibles, but it's very understandable.

[Suzu]

As I understand it, the market at 14,000 in July was still in reality lower than it was at the same time in 2001, due to devaluation of the dollar that has taken place in recent years. The Euro was worth 80 cents US back then. Now it's up around $1.40. That's a huge devaluation, isn't it. So you have to look at the market with this in mind, it hasn't been "up" at all this year.

[MsDoodahs]

Volume is important. Suppose that today, just a few people headed for the door, but we had a big drop, maybe based on some bad news for one or two DOW stocks. That's no big deal. In fact, it might even indicate a turnaround the following session. We've had pretty heavy volume since the market started going down, but it hasn't been a total barn buster. A crowd headed for the door, but it wasn't quite a stampede. When you see a huge drop accompanied by huge volume, start worrying. Today was serious because of Bear Sterns, but it's going to get worse. Conversely, when you see a high close with very little volume, be very suspicious. When you see a high close with very heavy volume, load up the truck..

Stock market returns are asymmetrical. Stocks in general, and the stock market generally, have an upward bias to their movement. Two of the best performing stock screeners at Zacks.com are 52 week highs and 52 week lows. Both are designed to find long ideas. The tradingmarkets.com 2-day RSI strategy looks for buys with low levels of RSI and cautions that only the most aggressive traders should try to short stocks with very high 2-day RSI. Why is this? Because stock market returns are asymmetrical and have an upward bias.

If you find a concept that works going long, you cannot just flip it and assume it works for going short.

High volume massive down days often indicate buyable panic or a capitulation bottom. Most bear markets do not begin with high volume dumping of shares. Bear markets are slow and relentless - death by a thousand cuts.

Take your chart with the 50 and 200 DMAs, back up the scale so you can see 20 - 30 YEARS of action, and erase the daily data. Show ONLY the 50 and 200 DMAs. Here is your market timing. Be IN THE MARKET when the 50 is above the 200. Be OUT OF THE MARKET when the 50 is below the 200. Ignore where the close is. *

If you had followed this simple strategy over the last, say, 50 or so years, and switching to bonds when you are out of stocks, you would have made out like a bandit. You'll note that this simple two moving average crossover idea would have kept you OUT for almost the entirety of the last bear market.

*not advice, just an observation, you are responsible for your own due dilligence, yada yada yada...



Both the 50 DMA and the 200 DMA represent major levels of "support," a level that will not usually be breached. The 50 DMA (that's the blue line) is short-term support. The 200 DMA (red line) is long-term SUPPORT. Breaking the 50 day moving average indicates trouble. When you break the 200 DMA, you're in serious trouble. That is often the point of no return. By that, I mean that stocks aren't going to rise appreciably for some time. They are going to drift or go down further, and it could be years before they regain their losses.

You can see from the chart that we broke the 50 DMA the latter part of August, and we haven't surpassed it since then. That first line of support (50 DMA) is now called resistance, because we're going to have a hard time getting above it.

There are other areas of support and resistance, but you asked for a quick course, and the 50/200 DMAs are the mother of all resistance/support. ;)



If you were to take the closing price, the 50 DMA, and the 200 DMA in a spreadsheet, you would see that the relationship of the close to either of those two moving averages is nowhere near as consequential or as powerful for longer term market timing as the "gurus" would have you believe.

Go to finance.yahoo.com

Click on the symbol for the S&P500. On that page, go to historical prices. Scroll to the bottom. Right click on download file. Save it to your computer. Open it in a spreadsheet program. You now have FIFTY SEVEN YEARS of price data and you can go back and look to see how many crosses of the 50 and 200 DMA there have been. You may find this helpful.

If you'd like, you can do the same for the Dow - I believe they have data back to the 1920s.

(Info in this post from MrDooDahs, aka NoDooDahs, of the trading/investing/politics/whatever blog www.BillakaNODoodahs.com)

[ChooseLiberty]

Nice post Mr. Doodahs.

BTW for all the peeps that can't get enough - listen to the Bear Sterns call!

http://biz.yahoo.com/cc/4/84324.html

Sounds a lot like pigs squealing. :D

[Badger Paul]

Someone predicted this last week and turned out the be nothing. Stocks went up that day.

Of course, anybody who bought stocks during the middle-of-the-week rally propmptly lost their shirts today. Maybe next week they'll think twice before listening to some cheerleader on Fox or CNBC tells them go out and buys some bargin that's going to tank in a couple of days. The market is too volitile for that kind of irresponsible investing.

[MsDoodahs]

Of course, anybody who bought stocks during the middle-of-the-week rally propmptly lost their shirts today. Maybe next week they'll think twice before listening to some cheerleader on Fox or CNBC tells them go out and buys some bargin that's going to tank in a couple of days. The market is too volitile for that kind of irresponsible investing.

Something Warren Buffett said...

"be fearful when others are greedy and be greedy only when others are fearful."

We added to our holdings today, and I fully expect to be adding more next week.

:)

[michaelwise]

Something Warren Buffett said...

"be fearful when others are greedy and be greedy only when others are fearful."

We added to our holdings today, and I fully expect to be adding more next week.

:)

I hope you are adding precious metals and foreign currencies to that.

The only problem with your logic is, how long the fear lasts. It's not just a one day event. The continuing foreclosure cycle is just now spreading into the commercial real estate market, and should last well into 2009. What do you think the continuing impact to the financial markets will be? What impact will this have on jobs going forward? I already know the answers to those questions.

The US economic collapse is unfolding very nicely now. The amount of wealth destruction will be tremendous.

[ghemminger]

What should we expect in the next few months...lotso layoffs comming up...hyper inflation??? What should the rank and file be preparing for?:(

[michaelwise]

What should we expect in the next few months...lotso layoffs comming up...hyper inflation??? What should the rank and file be preparing for?:(

The rank and file should be preparing for, how they are going to deal with the escalating crime rate.

[ghemminger]

The rank and file should be preparing for, how they are going to deal with the escalating crime rate.

This is wierd...My car window was recently busted....someone stole my hose...milk is like $5 bucks....

[michaelwise]

This is wierd...My car window was recently busted....someone stole my hose...milk is like $5 bucks.... Dude, you ain't seen nothing yet. I may look into buying a gun.

[ghemminger]

Dude, you ain't seen nothing yet. I may look into buying a gun.

Seriously???...3 months ago meth heads broke into my parents home while they were sleeping took ther computers, etc and stole there van...we found it a week later crashed into a house....I have been noticing more and more homeless people here to and some distant realtive going on food stamps? and everyone is telling me work is slow...

[michaelwise]

Seriously???...3 months ago meth heads broke into my parents home while they were sleeping took ther computers, etc and stole there van...we found it a week later crashed into a house....I have been noticing more and more homeless people here to and some distant realtive going on food stamps? and everyone is telling me work is slow...

I live in Fort Myers, Cape Cape, Florida area. There is a new bank robbery story on the news almost every day now. Someone recently stole a backhoe from a construction site and used it to rip out a bank ATM, dumped it in a pickup and took off. They got caught about a week later. I'm like the neighborhood watch, since I'm up late every night.

[ghemminger]

I live in Fort Myers, Cape Cape, Florida area. There is a new bank robbery story on the news almost every day now. Someone recently stole a backhoe from a construction site and used it to rip out a bank ATM, dumped it in a pickup and took off. They got caught about a week later. I'm like the neighborhood watch, since I'm up late every night.

We had a hispanic guy dress up as a security guard w/ firearmes walk into a Indian Casino here an walked out with 2 million....

[freelance]

MsDoodahs,

Agreed with most everything you said.


Take your chart with the 50 and 200 DMAs, back up the scale so you can see 20 - 30 YEARS of action, and erase the daily data. Show ONLY the 50 and 200 DMAs. Here is your market timing. Be IN THE MARKET when the 50 is above the 200. Be OUT OF THE MARKET when the 50 is below the 200. Ignore where the close is. *

Yes.

Agree on RSI. That's my main other indicator.

It was a short course. LOL!

I'm not trading anything right now, so I let my Stockcharts.com subscription lapse. I had to use their default charts for illustration purposes.

Clearly the actual DOW numbers mean nothing in the context of inflation. They should be much higher. Gold should be through the roof, but the market is managed and not free.

I'm just not as optimistic as MsDoodahs. I hope and pray that she's right and I'm wrong.

[michaelwise]

MsDoodahs,

Agreed with most everything you said.



Yes.

Agree on RSI. That's my main other indicator.

It was a short course. LOL!

I'm not trading anything right now, so I let my Stockcharts.com subscription lapse. I had to use their default charts for illustration purposes.

Clearly the actual DOW numbers mean nothing in the context of inflation. They should be much higher. Gold should be through the roof, but the market is managed and not free.

I'm just not as optimistic as MsDoodahs. I hope and pray that she's right and I'm wrong.

Historically, the stock market only traded at between 8 and 15 times current earnings. What is its current p/e, something like 25? We've abandoned all the old metrics with a consensus agreement among investors. They focus on future earnings, which may not happen, instead of current earnings. The changed the employment formula under Clinton, to make it look better. They focus on core inflation instead of top line inflation, as if nobody needs to eat or drive. Wall Street is in a consistent state of denial. Well, I see the stock market going back to trading at historic norms.

[MsDoodahs]

Historically, the stock market only traded at between 8 and 15 times current earnings. What is its current p/e, something like 25?

18.08 according to the last available data (6/30/07)

Here's the link:

http://www2.standardandpoors.com/spf/xls/index/sp500pe_ratio.xls

:)

eta: two other things have an influence on average p/e ratio. A looser monetary policy should naturally lead to increased demand for stocks, hence a higher average p/e. Second, many people will choose between stocks and bonds based on relative return and level of risk tolerance; hence it follows that when bond yields are very low average p/e goes up. When comparing historic p/e's to p/e's of today, one should factor in a looser policy and lower average interest rates. In light of that, is a p/e of 18.08 all that excessive?

[michaelwise]

18.08 according to the last available data (6/30/07)

Here's the link:

http://www2.standardandpoors.com/spf/xls/index/sp500pe_ratio.xls

:) Do you have one for the DOW? Also, look at the S&P data, and see how low it can go.

[MsDoodahs]

Do you have one for the DOW? Also, look at the S&P data, and see how low it can go.

The DOW is thirty companies - who gives a crap?!

Lowest it's been is 5.90, highest is 46.50.

:)

[michaelwise]

The DOW is thirty companies - who gives a crap?!

Lowest it's been is 5.90, highest is 46.50.

:) The DOW is the delusional metric, which the cheerleaders focus on. Only for this reason, it is important. Also I just want to see how much it can crash.

[michaelwise]

If you really want a good chuckle before you go to bed, go read the Florida thread on the housing bubble blog. Be sure to read the comments.

http://thehousingbubbleblog.com/

[ghemminger]

If you really want a good chuckle before you go to bed, go read the Florida thread on the housing bubble blog. Be sure to read the comments.

http://thehousingbubbleblog.com/

Please help me!!! Im writing up a post....:eek:

[ghemminger]

I have to buy a house within the next 3-4 months in the inland empire Southern California.....Prices for new homes seem to average $145-200 per square foot...I'm in the 300k-350k range

Holy Macanoly...a major builder changed his prices 3 days ago...New development 30 homes left in final phase...
$105 per sq ft!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!like a 40% drop?????????

Showed it to the other developments I went to and They all said something like holy shit...no fin way....and then proceeded to copy my pricing sheet and tell me that it must only be an anomoly...because were doing fine...slow but fine....

Is this the first break in the dam????

[jonahtrainer]

I have to buy a house within the next 3-4 months in the inland empire Southern California.....Prices for new homes seem to average $145-200 per square foot...I'm in the 300k-350k range

Holy Macanoly...a major builder changed his prices 3 days ago...New development 30 homes left in final phase...
$105 per sq ft!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!like a 40% drop?????????

Showed it to the other developments I went to and They all said something like holy shit...no fin way....and then proceeded to copy my pricing sheet and tell me that it must only be an anomoly...because were doing fine...slow but fine....

Is this the first break in the dam????


I would highly recommend NOT buying. You will probably be better off renting.

All my real estate buddies say 2011-2013 (http://www.bubbleinfo.com/statistics-2007/2007/3/15/arm-reset-schedule.html) will be the time to buy.

[ghemminger]

I have to buy....My very rich uncle is covering me in this...I'm liveing in sqaaulor conditions with children

[michaelwise]

I have to buy....My very rich uncle is covering me in this...I'm liveing in sqaaulor conditions with children

We in the all knowing industry will call you a knife catcher. Now is the best time to buy. NOT! Here in FL it's buy one get one free time. Soon it will be buy one get two free. Seriously, Did you read the link I posted earlier? Please read the comment section as well on the FL thread. This will convince you. Where do you live, general area?

http://thehousingbubbleblog.com/

[ghemminger]

We in the all knowing industry will call you a knife catcher. Now is the best time to buy. NOT! Here in FL it's buy one get one free time. Soon it will be buy one get two free. Seriously, Did you read the link I posted earlier? Please read the comment section as well on the FL thread. This will convince you. Where do you live, general area?

http://thehousingbubbleblog.com/

Thanks Michael....I live in the Inland Empire...home is in the beaumont banning area....

[michaelwise]

I have to buy a house within the next 3-4 months in the inland empire Southern California.....Prices for new homes seem to average $145-200 per square foot...I'm in the 300k-350k range

Holy Macanoly...a major builder changed his prices 3 days ago...New development 30 homes left in final phase...
$105 per sq ft!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!like a 40% drop?????????

Showed it to the other developments I went to and They all said something like holy shit...no fin way....and then proceeded to copy my pricing sheet and tell me that it must only be an anomoly...because were doing fine...slow but fine....

Is this the first break in the dam????
Cramer recommended that they just plow all the IE Empire RE under to stabilize the market. I agree with him.

[ghemminger]

I posted this on another thread and it's like u guys the bears their the bulls crazy....

[michaelwise]

I posted this on another thread and it's like u guys the bears their the bulls crazy....
Next week the bulls will be in full fear mode, and shortly after that, it will be panic. The crashing economy will be the main reason why Dr. Ron Paul Will win. The sheeple will be convinced that our economy needs an enema. The good doctor will be happy to administer treatment.

[MsDoodahs]

I have to buy a house within the next 3-4 months in the inland empire Southern California.....Prices for new homes seem to average $145-200 per square foot...I'm in the 300k-350k range

Holy Macanoly...a major builder changed his prices 3 days ago...New development 30 homes left in final phase...
$105 per sq ft!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!like a 40% drop?????????

Showed it to the other developments I went to and They all said something like holy shit...no fin way....and then proceeded to copy my pricing sheet and tell me that it must only be an anomoly...because were doing fine...slow but fine....

Is this the first break in the dam????

That major builder wants to unload the new homes that are just sitting there not selling.

He moved those houses to the "clearance rack" and stuck a red "40% off" sign on top.

The housing bubble in CA has been deflating for a while now, so I wouldn't think of this as a "first break."

[freelance]

Tel Aviv Stock Exchange opens trading with dramatic losses

Before noon, the TA-25, which lists Israel's top 25 companies, had fallen by 3.7 percent to 1,056 points, the TA-100 lost 4 percent and the Tel-Tech index was down 2.2 percent. The real estate index was down by six percent.

http://www.haaretz.com/hasen/spages/889939.html

It's going to be interesting to see how gold opens this afternoon.

[michaelwise]

Just a sad story on the front page of our local news paper today about people going hungry in Lee county.

http://www.news-press.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20070805/NEWS01/70804039/1075

They tell us our economy is strong, and everyone is employed, and doing great. After reading this front page story, I'm having my doubts. Just being sarcastic. I knew this was coming. I told many people last year, just wait till all the homeless people start popping up. The US economic policy sickens me.

[hummtide]

Just a sad story on the front page of our local news paper today about people going hungry in Lee county.

http://www.news-press.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20070805/NEWS01/70804039/1075

They tell us our economy is strong, and everyone is employed, and doing great. After reading this front page story, I'm having my doubts. Just being sarcastic. I knew this was coming. I told many people last year, just wait till all the homeless people start popping up. The US economic policy sickens me.



Yeah Florida is pretty much heading into financial ruin for the next forseeable future thanks to the housing collapse. Too many people who shouldnt have owned homes went out and got em, and the worst part is, they didnt buy a home to live within their means, they just went ahead and got their dream home and didnt factor in everything that comes with being a homeowner.

[hummtide]

Here in Alabama, for some odd reason the economy here is still very hot with near record unemployment mainly due to the red hot economies of Huntsville and Mobile, all due mostly to the rapidly expanding auto and steel industries. Here in Dothan (cheap to live USA) though, real estate sales had been upward even this year up until May when sales have been down the last two months 5.6% and then 7.8%, which considering the average new home price is 128,000, is not a good sign.

I hate to say this but most of the people who have bought homes over the past 5 years deserve to lose them as they simply are not financially able enough to afford the costs of owning a home. And the stupid mortgage companies (not banks who were smarter in this case) lended money to those with shaky credit. And now those mortgage companies are folding by the day, and millions will continue to lose their homes.

This economy over the past 4 to 6 years has been a sham as it is mostly riding on the back of refinanced debts. Some dumb joe making 40,000 a year buys a home in 2000 for $150,000 on a 15 yr loan with having put 15,000 down. Then their dumb butt learns they are in a "good location" and their home value in 2003 is now $200,000, yet they only owe 120,000 left on their note. But since they can now get 80,000 in refinanced cash on their equity and a 30 yr note for the same interest rate and monthly payment, they say what the hell.. lets do it! And of course they go further into debt. They buy the new electronics, new vehicles and lord behold they now have $200,000 in debt compared to $120,000 with only 12 years left to pay on.

SO the taxes go up, energy costs go up, and worse yet dumb joe or the wife loses their job, and financial ruin is upon them. So the question is why didnt they buy a older home first and go the conservative route which would have been much cheaper? Ive seen 4 of my friends buy their first homes and go for the big house from the get-go and all 4 in the course of 3 years have lost them from being foreclosed on... all because of what they WANTED, not needed.

I myself bought a basic stripped down home for $47,000 in 2005, with a 15% down payment, and I owe less than $30,000 on it now..and am slowly adding on to it even though my income at the time was 85% of the price of my home. But instead of temptation of buying bigger, I stayed within my means. Unfortunately too many Americans are going to lose their homes and learn a very costly lesson in their lives for being what many simply are.. TOO DAMN GREEDY!

Fortunately though those Katrina cottages are proving a huge great alternative to affordable housing. My good friend who lost his home in Katrina, and got $245,000 in insurance and Road Home money decided to move to the Northshore north of Lake Pontchartrain. He got a 1/2 acre lot for $34,000 and wanted to build a 1500 sq ft home (single car garage) for him and hie wife. Well the cheapest quote they got was for $279,000, which he balked at. So instead he took my advice and looked at pre-fab housing and looked at the Katrina cottages and got one built for $68,700 and is 1276 sqft. And it took 11 days to bring in the house, assemble it and for them to move on in. And that thing is 150mph wind resistant, and hes north of I-10 so his insurance is MUCH lower. And best part is he and his wife have $120,000 still left over, all for being SMART and not greedy with a home FULLY paid for!

[kimosabi]

This is only the beginning, I think this is going to go spread World Wide.

I've already come across one person in Australia who has lost approx $20 grand in their pension fund which had invested in US based Mortgage Backed Security's.

What infruriates me most is when you realise this has been all engineered by the psychopaths who make the money out of "Thin Air"

[MozoVote]

I don't normally listen to Bob Brinker's "MoneyTalk" - but it's becoming more obvious that something is changing. Last year he'd just shoo people off the air that wanted to talk about how to hedge for a real estate decline.

Today he opened his show admitting a "Real Estate Recession" and spent time talking to his first few callers about the degree of safety in treasuries and FDIC insured funds.

People are becoming more interested in protecting money than getting the best returns.

[Syren123]

It's the final play of the New World Order being enacted right now. Remember The Creature from Jekyll Island? The book was written 13 years ago and playing out exactly as the author said it would, right here, right now. We're now watching the collapse of the currency to clear the way for the World Bank to come to our rescue with the Amero, right on schedule.

[ghemminger]

That major builder wants to unload the new homes that are just sitting there not selling.

He moved those houses to the "clearance rack" and stuck a red "40% off" sign on top.

The housing bubble in CA has been deflating for a while now, so I wouldn't think of this as a "first break."

Thanks....housing prices are so out of whack people just have lost site of reality....I mean 1200 sf in the ghehto for 430k??? Ridicuoulous

[freelance]

For you MsDoodahs,

I don't often read fiction, but I think you might enjoy this one:

Full Faith and Credit, by James R. Cook

It's about a two-hour read.

[MsDoodahs]

Here in Alabama..., all for being SMART and not greedy with a home FULLY paid for!

I agree completely with you!

Sometimes I think most americans have completely lost their ability to distinguish between a want and a need.

[MsDoodahs]

For you MsDoodahs,

I don't often read fiction, but I think you might enjoy this one:

Full Faith and Credit, by James R. Cook

It's about a two-hour read.

I will add it to my list. :)

[MsDoodahs]

Nice day today, hope all of you with money in the markets had a good day. :)

[michaelwise]

The stock market was so happy today, because the think that HeliBen is going to come to the rescue. We'll see.

[buffalokid777]

The stock market was so happy today, because the think that HeliBen is going to come to the rescue. We'll see.

Welcome to "Deat Cat Bounce"

I predict tommorow....75 points+ drop!

Any one else wanna predict before the opening bell?

[ghemminger]

My industry Home Builders is down Down Down

[MsDoodahs]

The stock market was so happy today, because the think that HeliBen is going to come to the rescue. We'll see.

Ain't happening.

:)

[MsDoodahs]

Welcome to "Deat Cat Bounce"

I predict tommorow....75 points+ drop!

Any one else wanna predict before the opening bell?

I didn't sign on before the bell, lol...

Today is all about Ben..

Question for you guys: how many of you follow currencies and the impact that has?

[ChooseLiberty]

So Bear Stearns put on their show pre-Fed. They're probably doing voodoo chants over their Bernanke doll right now.

Has America, Inc. gone out of business yet?

Keep us posted! :D

[MsDoodahs]

So...

Um....

???

[BIG_J]

Ben is standing tall; less he let the dollar die.

He's in a catch 22; and even if he did lower the reserve rate, we might still have the reverse condunumum theory take place; which would allow for the decoupling of the 10 year note; with the mortgage rates --- Seeing higher rates, even though the fed is lowering interest rates; this would most likely be due to all the debt on the books of the people holding the bag with depreciating assets (Houses) backing it up. (MISH)

[MsDoodahs]

SHINEY!

I hope all of you with money in the markets had a profitable day today!

:)

[ChooseLiberty]

Maybe Mr Doodah needs to set up his own account for posting?

[MsDoodahs]

Maybe Mr Doodah needs to set up his own account for posting?

I was lucky to get him to do that one post, there's no chance he'll open an account and post here, lol.

[libertarian4321]

Can anyone tell me a time in the last 20 years when some guru (not to mention plenty of rank amateurs) wasn't predicting the "end of the world" style crash?

When the market is high, they say its got to crash, when the market is low, they say "look, the markets crashing, get out now".

There are "gurus" who have been predicting a doomsday crash every day for at least 20 years now (e.g. Fleckenstein, but he's hardly the only one). Of course, most of the time, he's wrong- and if you'd followed his advice, you'd probably want to kill yourself. But every once in a while, they are "right" (like a broken clock is "right" twice a day).

The best advice: stop listening to the "gurus" (and that goes for the bulls and the bears)- they don't know whats going to happen, I GUARANTEE it- and for God's sake, don't listen to amateurs!

If you do liquidate your portfolio and decide to live in a cave somewhere, though, make sure to send Ron $2,300 before you go...

jb

[freelance]

Can anyone tell me a time in the last 20 years when some guru (not to mention plenty of rank amateurs) wasn't predicting the "end of the world" style crash?

When the market is high, they say its got to crash, when the market is low, they say "look, the markets crashing, get out now".

There are "gurus" who have been predicting a doomsday crash every day for at least 20 years now (e.g. Fleckenstein, but he's hardly the only one). Of course, most of the time, he's wrong- and if you'd followed his advice, you'd probably want to kill yourself. But every once in a while, they are "right" (like a broken clock is "right" twice a day).

The best advice: stop listening to the "gurus" (and that goes for the bulls and the bears)- they don't know whats going to happen, I GUARANTEE it- and for God's sake, don't listen to amateurs!

If you do liquidate your portfolio and decide to live in a cave somewhere, though, make sure to send Ron $2,300 before you go...

jb

Yes, actually during the tech bubble burst in 2000 and for the next year or so, everyone was manic--buying opportunity. GET IN NOW. The market has bottomed. Nothing could have been further from the truth! Examples, Maria B, Cramer, the ENTIRE FOX business gang, including most guests, excluding a few of the sane ones. Jim Rogers usually knows exactly what's going on, but most others are extremely bullish, even when the market's tanking. This time, they all seem to be grounded in the fact that Corp. USA is GOING DOWN!

[torchbearer]

Mutual Funds won't save you if the dollar collapses.

[MsDoodahs]

Yes, actually during the tech bubble burst in 2000 and for the next year or so, everyone was manic--buying opportunity. GET IN NOW. The market has bottomed. Nothing could have been further from the truth! Examples, Maria B, Cramer, the ENTIRE FOX business gang, including most guests, excluding a few of the sane ones. Jim Rogers usually knows exactly what's going on, but most others are extremely bullish, even when the market's tanking. This time, they all seem to be grounded in the fact that Corp. USA is GOING DOWN!

So, in 2000 everyone was saying "the market has bottomed get in now." And they were wrong...

Now, in 2007, everyone is saying "get out now the USA is going down."

Do you think everyone is wrong again?

There's a line of thinking that when everyone is on the same side, it's time to do the opposite. :)

[MsDoodahs]

Another nice day...

Here's hoping everyone made money today! :)

[ghemminger]

On a (real) inflation adjusted basis, Treasuries suck. Then you add in what's going to happen to the value of the dollar as countries either sell or stop buying treasuries -- Switzerland and Russia already have, and as we now know, China is threatening (wonder what Japan is thinking, as the biggest holder of US debt in the world?).

Who wants to be holding dollar-paper in that environment?

Any who ...

[MsDoodahs]

That's why you keep yourself diversified...and your pantry well stocked...;)

[ChaseEricTheRed]

So I'm just a squirrel trying to get a nut. I'm 24. I have about $12,000 saved up, and I don't want to just blow all my hard earned cash on rent. What would some of you wise market players suggest for a guy in my position. I appreciate the input and look forward to the responses.

-Paper Chaser

[freelance]

So, in 2000 everyone was saying "the market has bottomed get in now." And they were wrong...

Now, in 2007, everyone is saying "get out now the USA is going down."

Do you think everyone is wrong again?

There's a line of thinking that when everyone is on the same side, it's time to do the opposite. :)

There's something to be said for the contrarian view, but this time, I think they've got it right. Like I said, I hope you're right and I'm wrong!!!

[freelance]

That's why you keep yourself diversified...and your pantry well stocked...

Just to be clear, cash is a position, though I'm certainly not advocating stocking the pantry with USD.

[freelance]

Market just opened down 200+ points. FUGLY!

[markpa]

The Chinese government has begun a concerted campaign of economic threats against the United States, hinting that it may liquidate its vast holding of US treasuries if Washington imposes trade sanctions to force a yuan revaluation.

Full story: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtml?xml=/money/2007/08/07/bcnchina107a.xml

[freelance]

Did anyone catch that Orwellian Presidential press conference where the Prez. opened by telling us how wonderful our economy is and how our economy is the "envy of the world." I kid you not--the envy of the world.

If I owned a gun, I think I would have shot my TV. Instead, I just screamed at the top of my lungs.

[Brian4Liberty]

Did anyone catch that Orwellian Presidential press conference where the Prez. opened by telling us how wonderful our economy is and how our economy is the "envy of the world." I kid you not--the envy of the world.


Desperation move. Trot out Bush to say "all is well". The PPT has been busy this week! It's actually very interesting. Can they prevent panic? Maybe... Can they change the fundamentals? No.

They managed to push up the US Dollar, and push Gold down today. Obvious strategy, prevent dollar panic, and keep the Gold alternative from looking good.

We live in interesting times...

[MsDoodahs]

Dammit. I went shopping today and came in and ... WTF happened?

Didn't last week's big tanking happen when I went out?

:eek:

Unfortunately, I'll be out again tomorrow. (You cannot say you were not warned. ;) )

I'm still optimistic. And bold too, I guess - as I'm going bargain shopping. :D

[freelance]

They managed to push up the US Dollar, and push Gold down today. Obvious strategy, prevent dollar panic, and keep the Gold alternative from looking good.

Well, you gotta keep that gold in check when everything else is falling apart. LOL

I don't know what I'm laughing about, as none of this is funny.

[akalucas]

Dow closed today down 387 points, which is 2nd worst day of '07. Any predictions for tomorrow?

http://money.cnn.com/2007/08/09/markets/markets_0445/index.htm?postversion=2007080917

[freelance]

Dow closed today down 387 points, which is 2nd worst day of '07. Any predictions for tomorrow?

http://money.cnn.com/2007/08/09/markets/markets_0445/index.htm?postversion=2007080917

The best bet is to keep an eye on Asia overnight:

http://finance.yahoo.com/intlindices?e=asia

http://ronpaulforums.com/newreply.php?do=newreply&p=116944

[nunaem]

The best bet is to keep an eye on Asia overnight:

http://finance.yahoo.com/intlindices?e=asia

http://ronpaulforums.com/newreply.php?do=newreply&p=116944

I see alot of red.

[michaelwise]

They are selling everything to raise cash. You know what they say, cash is king. Don't worry about precious metals if you have them. Same thing happened a couple weeks ago when the market went down. Throwing the baby out with the bath water, to end up with only paper. Real money will come back, and then some. This is the big one, and it will play out over the weeks and months to come. It will get very ugly.

Unfortunately, this is what America really needs, to wake the fuck up. It is inevitable that it would happen. It is what Ron Paul spoke about. And I believe, it is the ultimate driving force, that will usher Ron Paul into the Whitehouse.

[Darren McFillintheBlank]

..

[akalucas]

Ya, looks like asia too is taking a hit. Here's a qoute from AP:

"Amid Friday's decline, the Bank of Japan said it injected 1 trillion yen ($8.39 billion) into money markets to curb rises in a key overnight interest rate.

The injection followed similar moves by its European and U.S. counterparts overnight.

The European Central Bank provided nearly euro95 billion ($130.8 billion) to money markets, the bank's biggest infusion ever.

The U.S. Federal Reserve also added a larger-than-normal $24 billion in temporary reserves to the U.S. banking system."

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/070810/world_markets.html?.v=12

[michaelwise]

Ya, looks like asia too is taking a hit. Here's a qoute from AP:

"Amid Friday's decline, the Bank of Japan said it injected 1 trillion yen ($8.39 billion) into money markets to curb rises in a key overnight interest rate.

The injection followed similar moves by its European and U.S. counterparts overnight.

The European Central Bank provided nearly euro95 billion ($130.8 billion) to money markets, the bank's biggest infusion ever.

The U.S. Federal Reserve also added a larger-than-normal $24 billion in temporary reserves to the U.S. banking system."

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/070810/world_markets.html?.v=12

The more the central banks print to give away, the less, the money they own, is worth.

[Darren McFillintheBlank]

..

[freelance]

The more the central banks print to give away, the less, the money they own, is worth.

Yeah, so how does all this injection of money "curb rises in a key overnight interest rate."

This sounds like NEW MATH or something.


You've got to put yourself into an Alice in Wonderland frame of mind to understand the current economic system. The Bible, William Shakespeare and Benjamin Franklin are morally and ethical incorrect in the present system.

Well said!

[markpa]

The PPt has its work cut out for it today. I really don't see how they can keep it in the positive for today with the losses in Europe and Asia. However Gold and Silver are up so far this morning

[freelance]

The PPt has its work cut out for it today. I really don't see how they can keep it in the positive for today with the losses in Europe and Asia. However Gold and Silver are up so far this morning

9:00 ET smackdown in progress!

[freelance]

Market opened down and dropping. Dow 120 right now.

[MsDoodahs]

I got done shopping and ... I admit it ... I tuned into business news at about a half an hour before the close. :o

Nice recovery right at the end there.

Hope everyone with money in ... made more! :D

[G-khan]

Well this is a thread on a site that I run and I think it is big news...

All I can say is look out below...................

http://goldismoney.info/forums/showthread.php?t=166642

:eek:

[markpa]

The Asian markets tanked over night and Europe is getting hit hard today. Our market will no doubt do the same today, I doubt the PPT can hold this back any longer. I fear the coming crash will be used to make the bankers richer and our politicians will use it to grab power. The media is already calling for "bail outs."

[akalucas]

Just heard on cnbc some guys say basically the s^%t just hit the fan and that they have breaking news and said that countrywide said "For many years, Countrywide's liquidity management framework has focused on maintaining a diverse, multi-layered assortment of financing alternatives. A primary component of this framework is a committed, unsecured credit facility of $11.5 billion provided by a syndicate of 40 of the world's largest banks. In response to widely-reported market conditions, Countrywide has elected to draw upon this entire facility to supplement its funding liquidity position. Over 70 percent of this facility has an existing term greater than four years and the remainder has a term of at least 364 days"

Not sure what this means but that guy basically said that they're pulling out their full credit line of 11.5 billion.

[NCGOPer_for_Paul]

You know, this might sound like a giant stretch, and he gets blamed for everything, but doesn't Bush have to take some responsibility for this? Wasn't he touting the "record high rate of home ownership" over the past few years? Personally, I feel it just added fuel to this raging fire that's about to become out of control. Encouraging mass consumption and encouraging people to buy beyond their means to me, is more insidious than the reasons for invading Iraq.

The mortgage companies did everything they could to qualify EVERYONE for houses, including less than interest monthly payments, just to get any sap into a house. Mortgage companies are to blame, but nobody should have to bail out bankers and IDIOTS who took these mortgages anyone with half a brain knew they couldn't afford. Greed, pretentiousness, and idiocy are going to kill us. Sorry, but there are people who shouldn't be buying houses. They shouldn't be buying giant SUVs either.

Not only are the markets tanking, people losing jobs, and other people losing value in 401(k)s and the like, but suburban SLUMS are sprouting up all over the place. There's a major societal problem that's happening as well that nobody is talking about.

[jaybone]

You know, this might sound like a giant stretch, and he gets blamed for everything, but doesn't Bush have to take some responsibility for this? Wasn't he touting the "record high rate of home ownership" over the past few years? Personally, I feel it just added fuel to this raging fire that's about to become out of control. Encouraging mass consumption and encouraging people to buy beyond their means to me, is more insidious than the reasons for invading Iraq.

The mortgage companies did everything they could to qualify EVERYONE for houses, including less than interest monthly payments, just to get any sap into a house. Mortgage companies are to blame, but nobody should have to bail out bankers and IDIOTS who took these mortgages anyone with half a brain knew they couldn't afford. Greed, pretentiousness, and idiocy are going to kill us. Sorry, but there are people who shouldn't be buying houses. They shouldn't be buying giant SUVs either.

Not only are the markets tanking, people losing jobs, and other people losing value in 401(k)s and the like, but suburban SLUMS are sprouting up all over the place. There's a major societal problem that's happening as well that nobody is talking about.

This is 99% the fault of misanthropic central banks the world over, and 1% stupid people signing mortgages without understanding them at all/.

[markpa]

This is horrible...silver is getting killed.:mad:

[ChooseLiberty]

Bush = $1 TRILLION (eventually) for a purposeless war.
= the "ownership" society

Greenspan = interest rates too low for too long. Once again he saw the real estate bubble he created but refused to adjust for it. Just like the 2000 stock bubble he was taking care of his buddies on Wall St.

I'd say Bush is to blame for a lot of things - deaths, debts, deficits, etc. etc. He's the worst President the US with the most power to do harm. The Nero of the US.






You know, this might sound like a giant stretch, and he gets blamed for everything, but doesn't Bush have to take some responsibility for this? Wasn't he touting the "record high rate of home ownership" over the past few years? Personally, I feel it just added fuel to this raging fire that's about to become out of control. Encouraging mass consumption and encouraging people to buy beyond their means to me, is more insidious than the reasons for invading Iraq.

The mortgage companies did everything they could to qualify EVERYONE for houses, including less than interest monthly payments, just to get any sap into a house. Mortgage companies are to blame, but nobody should have to bail out bankers and IDIOTS who took these mortgages anyone with half a brain knew they couldn't afford. Greed, pretentiousness, and idiocy are going to kill us. Sorry, but there are people who shouldn't be buying houses. They shouldn't be buying giant SUVs either.

Not only are the markets tanking, people losing jobs, and other people losing value in 401(k)s and the like, but suburban SLUMS are sprouting up all over the place. There's a major societal problem that's happening as well that nobody is talking about.

[ChooseLiberty]

BTW - I wouldn't count on this being "THE CRASH" that collapses the financial system. It's more of an adjustment back to reality.

[ChooseLiberty]

If you're waiting for someone to tell you when it's safe to go back in the water -

I wouldn't pay attention to the Fed, CNBC, or whatever. But Warren says the water's fine -

http://news.moneycentral.msn.com/provider/providerarticle.aspx?Feed=ACBJ&Date=20070816&ID=7335076

"Warren Buffett has added Bank of America Corp. to his Berkshire Hathaway Inc.'s bank holdings.

According to a filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission, Omaha-based Berkshire Hathaway (NYSE:BRKA), which owns The Buffalo News and shares in Buffalo-based M&T Bank Corp., held 8.7 million shares of Charlotte-based BofA at the end of June. The stake was valued at $425.3 million.

It's uncertain whether BofA (NYSE: BAC) will become one of Buffett's long-term holdings.

Buffett also added to his long-time holding in Wells Fargo & Co. (NYSE:WFC), bringing the value of his stake in the San Francisco bank to more than $9 billion as of June 30.

He also added to his stake in Minneapolis-based U.S. Bancorp."

[Original_Intent]

This is 99% the fault of misanthropic central banks the world over, and 1% stupid people signing mortgages without understanding them at all/.

Nah it is a combination - for every bad lender there are 10,000 bad borrowers.

Not disagreeing with the sentiment on the Fed and other central banks, but come on, people have got to take responsibility for taking loans that any fool can see they are not going to be able to repay.